The first half of the Canadian Grand Prix weekend is in the books, and with another race just two days away in Montreal and Worlds looming, today’s race in Quebec offers some important takeaways.
Pre-race favorite Simon Gerrans made the loudest statement, as if his 3rd place finish in the Vattenfall Cyclassics ahead of sprinting heavyweights like Mark Cavendish wasn’t already statement enough. He’s clearly on blazing form right now. In the post-race press conference, he stated that he’s not as strong as he was back in the Spring when he won Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he certainly seems to be strong enough. His sprint has only gotten better and better over the past few years, and that will help him Sunday in Montreal, and at the end of the month in Ponferrada. The fact that he had to overcome a late mechanical makes his win even more impressive. On the whole, Orica-GreenEdge rode a brilliant race, doing the work required to keep the early break on a tight leash, letting others take over when possible, and then positioning Gerrans perfectly for the finale. Landing a 4th place result as well (with a surging Daryl Impey) was an added bonus.
Orica-GreenEdge put in the work when necessary, but they didn’t tire themselves out too much. In the end, Simon Gerrans was positioned perfectly for the final climb.
Runner-up Tom Dumoulin and 3rd-place finisher Ramunas Navardauskas also made statements in this race, outgunning several top contenders on their way to podium finishes. Dumoulin was frustrated with yet another 2nd place, but he’s put on quite a show in 2014, with a lot of help from a very much improved finishing kick. Navardauskas has taken his sprint to the next level this year as well. He was in the mix in several bunch finishes in the Tour de France (he won a stage with a late move as well), he won the Points Classification in the Tour of Alberta, and here in Quebec he charged uphill to the line ahead with a lot of power, despite having spent time in a late breakaway attempt just a few minutes prior. His reputation as a feisty underdog is rapidly giving way to a reputation as a real contender (still feisty though) on the hilly profiles. He was actually 8th in the 2012 World Championship Road Race, and though Lithuania won’t have the team strength of Spain or Belgium, Rui Costa showed last year that a nine rider squad isn’t necessarily required to win a rainbow jersey.
Speaking of Rui Costa, we did not really get a chance to see just how strong he is right now with his Worlds defense around the corner: he was immediately behind Arthur Vichot when the FDJ rider crashed in the final moments of the Grand Prix, and he had to brake hard to stay upright. Still, Costa was lurking at the front of the race as the peloton neared the finish line, suggesting that he’s feeling strong. The GP Montreal, which he won in 2011, should be another opportunity for him to land a result.
Greg Van Avermaet will be disappointed with a 5th place finish, but it’s still a strong result and it certainly shouldn’t hurt his hopes of playing a big role in the Belgian Worlds squad. Likely Belgian Worlds squad teammate Sep Vanmarcke should be very happy with his 7th place result in his debut run here in Quebec. At 199.1 kilometers, the race is a bit shorter than the grueling spring classics that suit Vanmarcke so well, but he was in the mix at the finish anyway. His sprint and his climbing legs are getting better and better: he put them on display today with an uphill charge to the line. Gianni Meersman was the other Belgian in the Top 10, landing 6th. He was really the only rider who would generally be considered a “sprinter” to have success on the day. The gradient at the finish suited the punchier riders a bit better; Meersman should be pleased with the result.
The incline leading up at the start/finish line proved too much for Alexander Kristoff, who could only manage a 21st place. That shouldn’t be all that surprising; Kristoff can survive a tough day in the saddle, but sprinting up a long sustained gradient isn’t really his forte. It is a strength for Tom-Jelte Slagter, however, whose form was a question mark coming into the race, but an 11th place performance suggests that he’s getting back into shape for the last few races of the season. Montreal will be another good opportunity for him.
Stay tuned for more coverage of Canada’s big weekend of cycling. The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is now less than two days away!
The WorldTour returns to the land of the Spring Classics for one week in August, and that week is upon us: the 2014 Eneco Tour is here. A seven-day ride through Belgium and the Netherlands, the Eneco Tour was for many years a race decided almost exclusively by one day of time trialing, but recent years have seen more and more challenges added to the parcours to guarantee that the battle for General Classification rages across the whole week. With classics specialists having a chance to show their strength one last time on the WorldTour calendar and several riders nearing peak form for the upcoming Vuelta, competition tends to be fierce, and the 2014 edition should continue the trend.
The Route
The first two stages take place on mostly flat profiles that aren’t likely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 3 is a short (9.6 km) time trial that certainly will; however, this is not the Eneco Tour of old. Strength against the clock will always be important in a weeklong race with a chrono stage and no real mountains, but there are enough challenges in this year’s Eneco Tour to make the fight for overall victory a much more drawn-out affair.
Stage 5: Geraardsbergen › Geraardsbergen (162.5 km) – It isn’t as long as De Ronde, but the Eneco Tour’s fifth stage visits many of the same challenging landmarks.
Stage 4 takes place in the same region as the spring’s Gent-Wevelgmen, traversing some of the same roads. Fittingly, the next stage will put the peloton through a number of difficult tests made famous by the Tour of Flanders. With two full climbs up the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen before finishing there after 160 kilometers (with visits to other familiar Ronde climbs, like the Kruisberg and Bosberg, along the way), Stage 5 is a very difficult day that is certain to play a major role in the General Classification of the Eneco Tour.
Stage 6 offers no respite: with nonstop steep climbs all the way from start to finish, including multiple trips up and over La Redoute, one of the toughest challenges of April’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it will bring the punchy climbers to the fore. The seventh and final stage of the race is yet another day of nonstop climbing, as the Eneco Tour culminates with a visit to Amstel Gold Race country and many of the same short, steep climbs (though not the Cauberg) that feature in that event. While the weekend of familiar challenges won’t present the riders with any single stages nearing the length of the grueling spring classics, several consecutive very difficult days will guarantee some serious selection on the GC leaderboard.
The General Classification Contenders
Zdenek Stybar returns to the race as the defending champion, with the always impressive Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad backing his campaign for a repeat victory. Strong in the time trial, capable on the shorter climbs, and even handy in a sprint for bonus seconds, Stybar has the versatile toolset to compete, though this edition of the race is even harder than last year’s and uphill ability is at an even higher premium. However, the Czech star showed his climbing mettle in the 2013 Eneco Tour, putting in his best work on the very hilly stages, and he put his climbing form on display as recently as last weekend when he landed 10th the Clasica de San Sebastian. Still, while he put in Top 10 performances in both Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix in the spring, Stybar has not landed as many big results so far this season as might have been expected, and these climbs will really put him to the test. In short, it will be a challenge holding on to his title against some very dangerous rivals. OPQS does have plenty of strong, versatile lieutenants to put the pressure on from all angles, with the likes of Niki Terpstra and Matteo Trentin (among others) in attendance and capable of getting in to the mix on all kinds of different terrain.
2013 runner-up Tom Dumoulin is an elite time trialist who may lament the fact that the chrono stage is 3.6 kilometers shorter in this year’s race, but he’s also a strong climber who should appreciate the climbing challenges that await. 2nd to Tony Martin in Stage 20 ITT in the 2014 Tour de France, he’s on sharp form this summer. He’s also shown a bit more explosiveness this season, which will be a major asset here. His skillset puts him in an excellent position to better his result from last year. Hilly parcours specialist Simon Geschke will be an excellent second.
Sky’s Geraint Thomas has all the skills necessary to fight for the top step on the podium. He has not had much of a break from racing since winning the Bayern Rundfahrt at the beginning of June, but it’s hard to draw up a better parcours for a rider who combines cobblestone prowess with good climbing legs and a particular affinity for short time trials. If he can hold on to top form all the way through the race, he will be very hard to beat. Teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen is actually a two-time winner of the Eneco Tour, but the recent increased focus on uphill tests do not favor his toolset as much as past editions did, and he may be hunting stages and playing lieutenant in this year’s race. Ian Stannard has finally returned from his long break following a serious injury suffered in the spring, and Sky will be glad to see him back on the bike in the WorldTour’s return to the Low Countries.
BMC’s Philippe Gilbert was running well in the 2013 edition before a crash forced him to abandon the race. He’s been dealing with illness recently but his top-notch performance in the RideLondon Classic suggests that he’s back to full strength and ready to contest the 2014 edition of this race. He excels in the shorter time trials, and with the Ardennes-style final two stages, I like his chances to stand on the overall podium. As is standard operating procedure for such a powerhouse team, BMC has plenty of other options: Greg Van Avermaet showed excellent form with an 8th place finish in a very difficult Clasica de San Sebastian, and the sort of climbing chops required to land a good result in that race will be crucial for the last few stages of the Eneco Tour. New acquisition Rohan Dennis, a good climber with an elite time trial, could also try to get into the mix, and Steve Cummings, great in the short chronos, is yet another option, having a strong season so far.
Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is on the startlist after cutting his Tour de France campaign short to prepare for later season goals. Despite its classics-season feel, this has never been a race he’s targeted, and it’s hard to say where it ranks on his list of 2014 goals. As the sport’s most dominant classics rider right now, Cancellara will obviously be among the top favorites if he has the form and drive to hunt for the overall victory. It’s hard to see past him whenever the Muur van Geraardsbergen is involved. His classics prowess hasn’t extended into Ardennes results in his career, but he can usually handle some short climbs, and he’s obviously a top candidate in the time trial stage. Stijn Devolder is always a dangerous teammate.
Belkin’s Lars Boom has had a great deal of success in the Eneco Tour in the past, winning in 2012, but the parcours is no longer one that suits his style quite as well, and the last two stages will be a major challenge. Bauke Mollema may be the GC rider of choice here, given the back-to-back Ardennes-like stages that close out the race. 2nd in San Sebastian, he’s clearly carried some strong form out of the disappointing Tour de France, and his underrated sprinting ability will be a major asset in a race where bonus seconds often play a significant role in the GC results. Sep Vanmarcke is also on the startlist; the parcours is probably a bit bumpy for him, but he proved in the Tour de France that he doesn’t mind a few climbs. Garmin-Sharp has Ramunas Navardauskas and Sebastian Langeveld, the former very strong in a short time trial and on up-and-down profiles, the latter a proven classics talent who was 3rd in this race back in 2009. Lotto Belisol’s two-pronged attack of Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens will love the look of the final two stages and could surprise some people. Bjorn Leukemans of Wanty-Groupe Gobert has a knack for landing good results on this sort of terrain. OGE’s Jens Keukeleire is a rising classics talent who could be in the mix, while teammate Michael Hepburn will likely spend at least a little time near the top of the GC leaderboard given the early position of the time trial in the race. Peter Sagan initially seemed set to participate (and contend) in this race, but he is no longer on Cannondale’s roster to make the start; Moreno Moser looks to be the team’s main hope on this parcours.
The Stagehunters
In a race without any real mountains, so many riders who spend most of their stage-racing days hunting stage victories have a rare real shot at the General Classification (and are therefore among the many aforementioned potential overall protagonists), but there are still a few sprinting heavyweights and time trialing specialists yet to be mentioned who will be searching for individual wins in the Eneco Tour.
The list of strong sprinters includes Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo, and Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo as likely contenders for a bunch gallop. Tyler Farrar, who did not look great in the Tour of Poland but who tends perform well in the Low Countries, Matti Breschel, OGE’s Leigh Howard and Matt Goss, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Barry Markus, Andrea Guardini, Bryan Coquard, and Tom Boonen could also feature in the sprints.
Plenty of strong chrono riders were already named as possible GC contenders, but watch out for Alex Dowsett, Patrick Gretsch, Jesse Sergeant, and David Millar in the ITT as well.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Tom Dumoulin Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Philippe Gilbert Other Top Contenders: Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Fabian Cancellara, Bauke Mollema, Ramunas Navardauskas, Rohan Dennis, Jelle Vandendert
As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay connected. Also, be sure to come back soon for more previews, interviews, and analysis: the Vuelta a España is right around the corner!
Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.
At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.
It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.
Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.
It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.
Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.
Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.
Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.
Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin
There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.
Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.
