VeloHuman

Tag: Tom-Jelte Slagter

  • Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2015 Preview

    Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2015 Preview

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    After Rigoberto Urán delivered a surprise win in Québec, the racing moves on the Montréal. A slightly hillier course could favor the attackers even more, which will make predicting an already unpredictable race quite a challenge!

    The Route

    The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal takes on 17 laps of a 12.1km circuit for a total distance of 205.7 kilometers. The race starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started.

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    There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most difficult climb comes almost immediately: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8 kilometers at an 8% average gradient. From the top, there is a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average. There is a particularly steep 200m section of about 11% along the way. After another descent, things even out for a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head right back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the finish. That final run-in is a 560m, 4% climb.

    The Contenders

    While the startlists are the same and many of the top contenders are the same, the Montréal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Québec. “The two are different,” Rui Costa told VeloHuman from Québec. “Montreal is a race that I think is harder, and more open.”

    The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely see a smaller group coming into the final few laps than the peloton in Montréal. An attack on the 8% gradients has a decent chance of holding out over the final few up and down kilometers. The finish in Montreal, however, is a fair bit easier, which means that a select group of escapees could find themselves battling it out in a sprint. Orica-GreenEdge kept the race on lockdown last year, allowing a sizable bunch to finish together, but that was rather unusual for this race, and I’d expect a more select group to battle for the win this time around. Whatever the scenario, explosiveness and excellent climbing legs are important.

    It was not a real shocker to see an Etix-QuickStep rider take the win in Québec, given all the firepower they have, though Rigoberto Urán seemed like maybe the fourth best option on his team! In any case, EQS will have another excellent opportunity to nab the win in Montréal. Julian Alaphilippe looked strong in an escape attempt that was ultimately reeled in in Québec, and Michal Kwiatkowski looked particularly impressive chasing down Greg Van Avermaet. Despite Urán’s victory, I still see Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski as the top EQS riders for Montréal, as Urán won’t be taking anyone by surprise this time; in fact, I’d be just as surprised if he won Montréal now that he’s no longer under the radar. Still, watch out for the Colombian: he’s got all the right skills for these races, and although he’s basically taken a two-year hiatus from contending in the Classics, there was a time when he was a top rider for the Ardennes and in Lombardy—and apparently still has those skills hiding under the hood.

    Rui Costa has won in Montréal in the past and was runner-up in 2014. Without Simon Gerrans around, I like his chances this year. He looks to be in good form. The biggest question is team leadership. Costa made it into the select group that appeared to have their shot at fighting for the Québec win before hesitation allowed the larger pack to catch back up, but then Lampre-Merida backed Diego Ulissi in the final sprint. The Italian could be a strong contender in Montréal as well. Both riders are great climbers with explosive side, and my first instinct is to see Costa as the man for Montréal given his past performances, but Lampre might not see it that way, which makes it harder to view Costa as an out-and-out favorite.

    For most of the day in Québec, BMC looked to be the strongest team in the race, contributing to the chase of the early break and then involving themselves in one attack after another. It didn’t work out in the end, but it showed the team’s strength and that bodes well for Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert in Montréal. The selective profile will weed out some of the purer sprinters, but the less difficult finish will provide an excellent opportunity for both riders, who can rely on their impressive uphill speed, with a shot in a reduced sprint. I’m not sure either one is at full strength just yet with Worlds as such a major goal, but they’ll be close to their best. I like Van Avermaet a bit more than Gilbert, as he’s been coming to the GP Montréal for so many years running now, but both are contenders.

    Tony Gallopin, 3rd last year, showed good form with an 8th place in Québec. The way I see it, Montréal suits him better. He’s a excellent tactician who knows how to make an attack, and he has the fast finish to win out of a small group. He appears to be in terrific form as well. He was in the small group that made it up the Côte de la Montagne at the head of the race in Québec, and still managed to come in 8th in the final sprint after that group was swept up (Van Avermaet, also in that small group initially, could only manage 10th despite being near the front in the finale). In a wide-open race, I like Gallopin’s chances to turn last year’s third-place result into a win. If he doesn’t, Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot are other options for a loaded Lotto-Soudal.

    Michael Matthews was the runner-up in Québec and he’ll have a shot in Montréal, but I see the parcours as being just a bit too difficult to view him near the top of the favorites (oddsmakers disagree with me on this one). In any case, if Matthews is not able to handle the climbs, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for OGE, who have Adam Yates (on blazing form at the moment), Simon Yates, and Michael Albasini too.

    Tom-Jelte Slagter is in the best form he’s been in all season. He was 4th in Québec, and although he’s had better results there in the past, I think Montréal suits him well too. He can handle tough climbs without too much trouble. Slagter isn’t going to Worlds, having suddenly found his form after the Dutch team selection, and I therefore expect he’ll be giving it everything he has to pull something off in Montréal. Ramunas Navardauskas and Ryder Hesjedal are other options for Cannondale-Garmin.

    Lars Petter Nordhaug won here in 2012 and count be counted out. Trek’s Bauke Mollema and Fabio Felline make for a great 1-2 punch. The same is true for Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke and Warren Barguil. Europcar has Tommy Voeckler, while FDJ can rely on Arthur Vichot. AG2R is the French squad with the widest array of options: Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Jan Bakelants are all potential contenders. I was very impressed with LottoNL-Jumbo in Québec, and see Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman liking this parcours even more—Sep Vanmarcke is another option for the men in yellow.

    Alexander Kristoff was surprisingly in the mix in Québec but it’s hard to see him holding on over the more challenging GP Montréal parcours. Hesitation at the head of the race late on in Québec helped his chances but I doubt he’ll get that kind of gift again, though obviously he’ll be a favorite if he’s there for a sprint.

    VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

    Winner: Tony Gallopin
    Podium: Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter
    Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Matthews, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema

    VeloHuman will be at the race so be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis!

  • Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

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    Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

    Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

    Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

    Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

    For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

    Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

    The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

    Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

    Contador Dominant in Italy

    Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

    Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

    Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

    AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

    Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

    Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

    For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

    Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

    What’s Next?

    Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Mike Slone.