Tag: Tour de France

Tour de France 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Grenoble › Risoul – 177 km

Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.

There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.

Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.

Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.

Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.

Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3 Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Saint-Étienne › Chamrousse – 197.5 km

After a day without any real GC implications (Alexander Kristoff won Stage 12 in a bunch sprint), the yellow jersey fight will heat up again on Stage 13. The Tour’s journey through the Vosges offered plenty of uphill challenges to give an early indication of the climbers’ pecking order, but Stage 13 serves up the first high-altitude test of the race. The 197.5 kilometer day starts with a Cat. 3 climb and then a very long section of relatively flat roads before a tough final 60 kilometers. First, the peloton must take on the Cat. 1 Col de Palaquit, 14.1 km at 6.1%. Compared to what comes next on the profile, it may not look too bad, but this is a real test in its own right that will inject some pain into the legs of even the uphill specialists. After the tough climb and a fast descent, the riders will pass Grenoble and then start the grueling final ascent to Chamrousse, an HC-rated 18.2 kilometer slog at 7.3%. The steepest sections of the climb come early on. Things start to ease up a bit right near the top, but after such a long skyward journey, any group that comes to the foot of the climb is almost certain to be blown apart before it reaches the summit.

If any strong climbers make it into the morning breakaway, they will have a chance of staying away here; with another high mountain stage on tap for Saturday, the peloton may decide to conserve some energy on Stage 13. However, there are flat run-ins to both late climbs where things are likely to get very pacey in the pack as teams try to bring their leaders into the best possible position to start the ascending, and that could start to eat away at any advantage a breakaway might have. Even if those off the front do have some breathing room when they start their uphill journey to Chamrousse, it will still be a big challenge holding the gap all the way to the top.

The Tour’s climbing stars will be the favorites for victory here. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali outclassed everyone on La Planche des Belles Filles last weekend, showing that he is the rider to beat on the steep stuff. With a terrific supporting cast in Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, and Michele Scarponi, he has the team to set a strong pace when the road goes up. There are a few potential long-distance protagonists who could take this stage from afar, but if the pack does reel in the early moves as the Chamrousse climb nears, Nibali looks to be the single likeliest victor.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was not as strong as expected in the steep finale of the Tour’s eigth stage, but he was impressive on Stage 10, rolling in 3rd behind Nibali. He may be getting a bit stronger as the race goes on, and with the uphill ability he has shown in the past, he should be able to contend on this challenging final climb. Like Nibali, he has a strong team to position him well for a vertical charge in the Stage 13 finale.

Sky’s Richie Porte faces a real test here: the long ascents should be a strength, but this is the first time he is taking on an HC-rated Tour de France climb as team leader. If he can stay calm and churn out a steady pace, he could thrive on this slope. Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas, both still within the GC Top 15, make terrific allies.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive on the climbs so far in this race, and the Stage 13 profile will allow him to put that talent on display again. He will also be pleased that there is not a whole lot of technical desceding on the docket. French compatriots Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud of AG2R are also looking very strong, and they make a nice combo for the long climbs.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has handled the uphill challenges in this race with aplomb. He has developed considerably as a climber in 2014, and this will be an opportunity to put his improved skills to the test. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema struggled with stomach issues when facing some tough climbs earlier in the race, but he should be ready for Stage 13’s challenges. Past performances suggest that he should be able to put in a decent performance on this sort of skyward slog; we’ll see if he’s at the level necessary to succeed right now.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa has been suffering from bronchitis, and this will not be a pleasant journey to the top for him. He has a strong team with Chris Horner as a great second, but it will be a lot to ask to stay at the head of affairs for 18.2 very steep kilometers. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who was so strong in the Dauphine, has looked a bit off the pace on the climbs so far, and unless he manages to find an extra gear soon, this could be a tough stage for him as well.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the best climber in a select group of riders who are, on the one hand, far enough out of GC contention that they’ll be able to make a long-distance move, and on the other, talented enough to win on these slopes. Purito came very close to success on Stage 10, even after already expending a lot of effort picking up KOM points. Staying out front over the 18.2 kilometer final ascent is a lot to ask, but Rodriguez is one of the strongest climbers in the whole race. There will be a number of KOM points on offer on Saturday’s stage as well, however, which could affect how Purito decides to play Stage 13. His teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other strong options to go on the offensive from far out.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is far enough back on GC that he could go on the attack without giving too much worry to those near the top of the leaderboard. Post-Giro d’Italia Rolland is not as dangerous as he might be were this his first Grand Tour of the year, but if the pack does not have the motivation to reel in any moves from riders that aren’t in podium contention, Rolland has a chance: he is still one of the best climbers in the Tour.

NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig fell out of GC contention early in this race, but he finished 8th on La Planche des Belles Filles (ahead of Bauke Mollema and a few other top GC men). He could get into a move off the front and put his great uphill talent on display on Stage 13. AG2R’s Christophe Riblon finally showed himself with an attempt to take Stage 10 from the breakaway, and he could look to go for a long one again here. Tinkoff-Saxo has a very dangerous trio of climbing stars in Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka, all of whom are now free to hunt stage wins from afar. Others strong-climbing candidates who could look to get out front and hold on for success include Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse › Saint-Étienne – 185.5 km

The undulating finale of the Tour’s eleventh stage served as an excellent launching pad for Tony Gallopin to outfox Peter Sagan and a charging pack of fast finishers. Late climbs again await the peloton on Stage 12. The first of two major ascents near the end of the day is a 15.3 kilometer Category 3 climb that averages 3.3%. It’s not the sort of steep wall that the puncheurs will love, but it is long enough to put some of the heavier riders under pressure. It is followed by a fast descent and then a 9.8 kilometer Cat. 4 that averages 2.9%. Again, the gradient itself is not all that demanding, but it will be a long way for the sprinters to travel on an incline, especially if there are teams driving the pace up front. After another descent, things flatten out for the final few kilometers toward the finish.

The bumpy road to Saint-Étienne will give a breakaway some chance of going the distance on Stage 12, but there are quite a few teams in this Tour de France whose featured sprinters have decent climbing legs. If those teams cooperate, it will be hard for anyone who gets up the road to survive. As such, while the opportunists will certainly put in the effort to make this interesting all the way to the line, the favorites will be the fast finishers with the uphill talent to make it over the late climbs without losing ground to the pack.

As usual, chief among the more versatile sprinter types is Cannondale’s Peter Sagan. His frustration at being constantly forced to decide between closing down moves on his own or letting them go clear and hoping others will do the chasing is mounting, but Stage 12 may be his best opportunity for victory left in this race. The final climbs aren’t as steep as they were in the eleventh stage, the last descent isn’t as tricky, and there is a longer flat run-in to the line. The race should be a bit easier to control. Still, easier doesn’t mean easy: Cannondale will need some help from other teams to keep the early breakaway and any attacks on the climbs on a short leash, and even if things come together for a sprint, the young Slovakian will probably be facing some stiff competition.

The list of riders who will hope to rival Sagan if this does comes down to a sprint is headlined by Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. These late hills will probably too much for the team’s other star fast-man Marcel Kittel, but they has a capable alternative in Degenkolb. Runner-up on Stage 11, he is clearly feeling much better now than he was feeling last week. If he is, indeed, back to full strength, Sagan will have his hands full on Stage 12: Degenkolb at peak form should be able to handle these climbs, and he has been extremely fast this year, coming very close to beating Mark Cavendish twice in the Tour of California, and rather handily defeating Peter Sagan in a sprint in Gent-Wevelgem.

Orica-GreenEdge has an excellent lineup for the hilly stages, but they are still without a win in this Tour de France. This will be another good opportunity pick up that elusive victory. Simon Gerrans has landed some strong results in the reduced bunch sprints we’ve seen, and Michael Albasini is an excellent alternative with a similar skillset. OGE could try to put one in the break and let the other hang back in the pack to cover both potential scenarios.

OPQS’s Matteo Trentin continues to deliver impressive performances in the sprints on the hilly days, following up his earlier stage win with a nice 3rd place on Stage 11. He will be strong option for his team here on Stage 12, with the added versatility of being able to jump into the early move if that looks to be the smart decision. Michal Kwiatkowski will, as usual, be another versatile card for the team to play.

Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati should enjoy an opportunity to battle a somewhat reduced bunch if this comes to a sprint. Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, on the other hand, will be put to the limit trying to make it to the line, but it could happen, and it should go without saying that he’ll be a top favorite for a sprint if he’s still in the pack. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare could hold on for a bunch finish, and they will be dangerous if they are there. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, OPQS’s Mark Renshaw, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler have a chance to be in the mix as well.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arthur Vichot are fast finishers but they’ll have a hard time against the top sprinters. They will have to decide whether to try their luck in the bunch or attempt a long-range attack on Stage 12. It will take a strong group and some tactical riding for a move off the front to take this one from a hungry pack of sprinters. Strong candidates for success who will likely see a long-distance strike as their only chance at a stage win include Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, OPQS’s Tony Martin and Jan Bakelants, and IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Simon Gerrans

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Besançon › Oyonnax – 187.5 km

The Tour’s eleventh stage follows its first rest day, a break the peloton desperately needed after Monday’s brutal stage that saw the abandonment of Alberto Contador and a hard-fought uphill battle (won by Vincenzo Nibali) to close out the day. The Stage 11 profile is not a flat one, but its hills pale in comparison to the Vosges climbs that injected pain into hundreds of legs over the weekend. It will be a welcome change for most of the riders in the Tour de France. Still, the climbs will play a role in how Stage 11 plays out; the toughest ascents of the stage come in quick succession as the day reaches its conclusion, with four categorized climbs less than 30 kilometers apart. Following the final Cat. 3, there is an uncategorized bump in the road and then a technical descent to Oyonnax and the finish line.

The rolling profile makes this another good opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. It’s probably just a bit too challenging for the heavier sprinters, which will reduce the amount of fierpower committed to the chase. The barrage of late hills late and the long descent that follows will make it difficult for anyone to control the race even if they tried. However, this sort of intermediate stage is one of the few (along with the next day’s stage) in the race that isn’t likely to be dominated by a pure sprinter or a climbing star, making for a more open competition: almost every team in the Tour de France will try to take advantage of the opportunity to pick off a win. If a few strong teams miss the break, they’ll commit to reeling things in, and though this profile is lumpy, it’s not so lumpy as to guarantee the break’s success.

The “favorites” (with the usual caveat that that is a loaded term on breakaway-friendly stages) will be decent climbers with either fast finishes or good soloing skills to try to escape late and maintain a gap on the descent.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is the number one rider to watch on the stage. He shouldn’t struggle with the climbs, he’s a masterful descender, and he’s obviously a fast finisher. Dealing with the day’s breakaway will be his biggest challenge. He may try to get into the break himself, or he may go for this one from the pack, which would mean a lot of time on the front for his team. That versatility is what makes him such a strong contender.

The same is true for both Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge. In Stage 7’s sprint finish, Gerrans looked to have recovered the strength he lost in his opening stage crash. The Stage 11 profile suits him perfectly, with an opportunity to escape on a late climb, or the possibility of a reduced sprint. Teammate Michael Albasini is another excellent option: the Swiss veteran is an expert at picking the right moves, and he’s got a fast finish, too. Orica-GreenEdge will have a lot of flexibility with this duo: they can try to put one of them into the breakaway and let the other ride it out in the pack, to cover both scenarios. Whether or not the stage goes to the break or to the peloton could hinge on whether Peter Sagan and at least one Orica-GreenEdge rider make it into the move: if not, Cannondale and OGE can be expected to get involved in the chase early.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara would be another top choice, but he has abandoned the race to focus on other objectives. Fellow classics protagonist BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is still here, however, and he could be a contender thanks to his blend of good climbing legs, strong solo prowess, and a fast finish. OPQS has the quality duo of Jan Bakelants and Matteo Trentin to take on the difficult challenge of deciding between breakaway and peloton; both are excellent on hilly days and Trentin in particular is a dangerous option if he is in whatever group is fighting for the win when the day nears its conclusion. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas are other top contenders who could win Stage 11 from either the break or the peloton.

If things do come back together at the end, it could be all about which of the big name sprinters survive the late climbs. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might be a top favorite were it not for the injury he suffered early on in this race. He’s still a rider to watch; normally, he’d be targeting this stage, which is probably too difficult for Marcel Kittel. Fellow German Andre Greipel can climb better than most people realize. This still might be a bit too much to ask, but if things regroup for a sprint and he does survive the bumpy road, he will obviously be a top favorite. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff has a chance to hold on over the climbs, though this stage may not be long enough to favor his skillset even if he does. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare can normally handle a hill or two, but as of yet he has not looked recovered from injuries sustained crashing earlier in the Tour. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov also have a shot of making it over the late bumps to contest a sprint if it should come to that.

Other candidates will be more reliant on the breakaway’s chances. In addition to their duo of versatile fast finishers (Bennati and Morkov), Tinkoff-Saxo suddenly has a stable of options for breakaway success now that team leader Alberto Contador is out of the race. They’ll still be hoping to get something out of the Tour de France, and all-rounder talents Mick Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka will be dangerous stagehunters with breakaway ambitions. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler could give the early move another go after spending a long (and ultimately unsuccessful) day out front on Stage 10. His teammate Cyril Gautier may be a better option; the younger Gautier has looked sharp so far, while Voeckler has not looked his best. IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel is always a strong candidate to go for a long-distance win. On this profile and with Degenkolb still questionable, Tom Dumoulin may be the best option for Giant-Shimano; he’s been impressive on all levels of his game in this race; his soloing ability is well-known, but he has also flashed a decent sprint on two separate stages and he is showing off his able climbing legs with his Top 30 position on GC. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Tony Martin, Trek’s Jens Voigt, and Cofidis’s Nicolas Edet are other potential long-range protagonists who could have a shot.

On the off-chance that the GC contenders try to mix things up on Stage 11, watch out for a fast finisher like Alejandro Valverde, a strong descender like Vincenzo Nibali, or Michal Kwiatkowski, who qualifies as both.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Mulhouse › La Planche des Belles Filles – 161.5 km

The peloton enjoyed a comparatively easy day in the ninth stage of the Tour de France, leaving the real fighting to the breakaway up the road, from which Tony Martin took a decisive victory with a long attack. That brief ceasefire in GC hostilities shouldn’t come as a surprise: the Stage 10 profile looks like a roller coaster viewed from the side. The day’s seven categorized climbs include four Cat. 1s. The final two will really hurt: the Col des Chevrères grades out at a vicious 9.5%, which will put the riders who prefer to grind out a steady tempo into a world of hurt, while the summit finish at La Planche des Belles Filles comes at the end of a 5.9 kilometer journey up a slope averaging 8.5%, with a section of 20% leading into the line. At 161.5 kilometers, it’s a short stage overall, but with so many uphill tests, the finish won’t come fast enough for the peloton.

The continuous onslaught of uphill challenges and fast descents makes this yet another good chance for a breakaway. The GC favorites will be much more concerned with each other than anyone out of contention who gets up the road, and the sprinters won’t have a chance here. Even if there is a concerted effort to pull back the break, the peloton could struggle to reel in those up front given the constant ups and downs and winding roads. However, unless the breakaway contains some serious climbing talent, it may start to falter as the day wears on, especially as the GC contenders start to ramp up the pace for the run-in to the final two brutal climbs. What’s more, the yellow jersey hunters took Stage 9 pretty easily, and a rest day awaits on Tuesday, meaning that the real powerhouses of this race will be fresh and ready to put it all on the line on Stage 10. That will further complicate things for those riders up the road. I see about a 50/50 chance for the break here. One thing’s for certain: for anyone to win this stage, a healthy dose of uphill ability will be required.

One major feature of the stage that you won’t see in the profile is the date itself: the peloton takes on Stage 10 on July 14th, Bastille Day. It’s been quite a while since a French rider won a stage of the Tour on the country’s national holiday, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. For a French pro cyclist, there are few things more desirable than a Bastille Day victory, and that means that the French riders will be extra-aggressive trying to get out front on this climb-happy profile.

As with any stage that gives a breakaway a good chance of success, it’s hard to name anyone a favorite, but at least this day of harsh climbs allows us to narrow down the list a bit to the GC contenders and those opportunists with real climbing talent. Among said opportunists, it will be interesting to see which of the uphill chargers from the Stage 9 breakaway have enough left in the tank to give it another go on Stage 10; so many of the strong climbers who are out of GC contention and who might stand out as likely agressors will indeed be coming off a long day out front. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez finally showed some form in the road to Mulhouse, picking up a handful of KOM points behind Tony Martin. If he continues to feel well, he could give it another go. Teammate Simon Spilak was with him in the Stage 9 break, and he is another rider who could be hoping to recover energy quickly to try for another long distance attempt.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin, Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Bretagne-Séché’s Brice Feillu, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Nicolas Edet (who will also be on the lookout for more mountain points), and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other strong-climbing opportunists whose participation in the early move of Stage 10 may depend on how quickly they recover from the efforts of the day prior.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon has not been very visible so far in this Tour de France, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the winner of last year’s Alpe d’Huez stage was saving his energy for another attempt to win on a momentous day. Stages like this are his specialty. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has not had the Tour he was hoping for, but this will be an opportunity for him to get something out of the race; he’s an excellent climber. Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo, Katusha’s Yuri Trofimov (far enough on the fringes of the General Classification that he’ll likely be given some freedom), Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, FDJ’s Arnold Jeannesson, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, AG2R’s Blel Kadri, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, Cofidis’s Rein Taaramae, and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck are other good long-distance candidates who will come into Stage 10 without having spent the previous day out front. It will interesting to see if any of the teams hunting the yellow jersey send any top lieutenants up the road; Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Rafal Majka, and Michael Rogers, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Lampre’s Chris Horner, and Movistar’s Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre would be big favorites if they made it into an early move.

Whoever ends up in the breakaway, they’ll have their work cut out for them staying away from the pack of GC contenders. The Tour de France has spent two days in the hilly Vosges region already, but this one is by far the most likely to shakeup the General Classification. Stage 10 is the best opportunity so far in the race for the elite climbers to get ahead, and that could make for a very fast day among the yellow jersey contenders; even if they aren’t actually focused on reeling in the riders up the road, it could very well happen anyway.

As might be rather obvious on a day with four Cat. 1 climbs and an uphill finish, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador is the favorite among the GC contenders. He is the best climber in the race, and he has an excellent team around him to put him into the best possible position to get ahead when the road goes up. If he gets away on the Col des Chevrères, with a meandering descent and another steep climb to follow, his rivals may not see him again until they get to the finish line, and for that reason he will be the day’s top favorite. It is important to note that by naming him as such, I am not saying that he is favored against the field, but given the fact that the GC contenders could very well reel in the day’s breakaway, and since it would be impossible to name any one rider as the favorite to take victory from the early move anyway, Contador is, in my mind, more likely than any other single rider to win Stage 10.

He will, however, have plenty of competition among the yellow jersey hunters. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali looked up to the challenge in the steep finish of Stage 8, though this will be a much tougher day. Furthermore, his team has spent quite a long time at the front of the pack so far in the Tour de France, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them showing signs of fatigue here. Still, Nibali appears to be very strong right now, and his position on GC will allow him to follow moves rather than having to worry too much about making them himself.

Sky’s Richie Porte put in a nice performance of his own on the uphill finish in Gérardmer, coming in only four seconds behind Nibali. These are very steep climbs he’ll be undertaking on Stage 10, but he does have a strong supporting cast, and they have not had to do too much work in this race so far. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde tends to like the steep stuff, but he was not at the same level as the likes of Contador and Nibali on Stage 8, and he’ll need to find that form fast if he wants to keep fighting for the yellow jersey with so many uphill tests on Stage 10.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot was very impressive in Gérardmer, next to cross the line after Porte. For him, the big challenge of Stage 10 may be the barrage of difficult descents. He looks to have improved both his bike handling and his general confidence, but this will put him to the test. If he can manage to stay out of trouble while going downhill, he’ll be very well positioned to strike out for glory on Bastille Day when the road goes up. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet could also be planning to attack on Stage 10. Both have looked strong, with Peraud’s form coming as a bit of a surprise after he seemed to be struggling in the Dauphine. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the later climbs, but having picked up a chunk of time on GC on the way to Mulhouse (he is now 8th overall), he won’t be given nearly the same level of freedom to get ahead anymore.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa, Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all sitting one after another in the General Classification and could try to pick up time on Stage 10 while the riders at the very top of the GC leaderboard are worrying about each other. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has looked sharp on the climbs so far and I like his chances to continue to be in the mix as this race goes on. This will be a tough day for his compatriot Andrew Talansky, who has been on the deck more often than he would have liked in these past few days, but he is known for his tenacity and this is a day that will require a healthy dose of fighting spirit.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 10, the next preview will be up on Tuesday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014