VeloHuman

Tag: Tour de France

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 19: Where We Stand After Seventeen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 18-21

    Top10ChasersDay 19: The Finale Is Here

    Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.

    Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.

    Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.

    Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.

    Alpe

    Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger

    Watch Out For

    Mikel Nieve

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel

    -Dane Cash

     Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 15: Where We Stand After Fourteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 15-17

    Ventoux

    Day 15

    A flat stage, an ITT, two more flat stages, and a hilly stage, won respectively by: Marcel Kittel, Tony Martin, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and a breakaway. A rather predictable week… Boring no? It was anything but boring. Cavendish got tangled up with Argos-Shimano’s Tom Veelers on stage 10, bringing the leadout man down behind a faster Kittel and Greipel, who fought for the finish line; the former won the day. In stage 11, Froome took another big chunk in the time trial, placing second to the time trialing world champ. Bauke Mollema had a fine day and Laurens Ten Dam was not nearly as bad as he might have been. A crash ended Andre Greipel’s hopes of winning stage 12, making it a showdown between Kittel and Cavendish. The German outsprinted Cav for his third win of the Tour. Stage 13 looked to be another mass sprint affair, until Alejandro Valverde stopped to take care of a mechanical and took a little too long trying to get back into the mix. A Belkin and Omega Pharma-Quick Step led peloton did not apply the brakes, and suddenly Valverde was minutes behind and fighting to catch back up; Movistar sent everyone but Nairo Quintana back to assist. Then, taking advantage of a cross tail wind, Saxo-Tinkoff jumped off the front of the already high-pace peloton, followed by the likes of Mollema, Ten Dam, Fuglsang, Sagan, and a few OPQS riders, including Cavendish. Froome watched as they sped off, and what started looking like a spirited attempt to liven up the race turned into a legitimate breakaway with serious firepower. Valverde suffered the most, unable to match the pace even with help from Kittel and Argos-Shimano and a number of other riders who had been dropped off the pace. The break stayed away and gapped Froome by a minute; Cavendish beat the green jersey to the line (though Sagan did seem relatively uninterested), but the biggest story was the end of Valverde’s GC hopes. Eventually he gave up the chase, and rolled across the line over nine minutes down, ceding the team’s yellow jersey hopes to the young Nairo Quintana. OPQS took another win in stage 14 when Matteo Trentin outsprinted his breakaway companions to the line, but all the GC riders took it easy, except for a once-contender who had suffered a major time loss in stage 9, Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky. He picked up roughly seven minutes in GC by finishing 3rd on the stage, with the break, rocketing back up to 12th place, right behind his teammate Dan Martin, again giving Garmin two top 10 hopefuls on the eve of the climb up Ventoux.

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    The iconic Mont Ventoux awaits, and Chris Froome’s many challengers will hope to use this stage as their launching point towards a yellow jersey that has gotten further away from them since the Tour left Corsica. I have to doubt their chances. Froome has aced every test so far, and while his team may have been battered in the past week, losing a pair of riders and dropping their total to seven, the leader looks strong as ever. His reduced team will need to be as good as possible though, with three Cat 4s and then a Cat 3 well before the climb to the summit of Ventoux even begins. Be ready to see a lot of attacks and attempted breakaways.

    Speaking of attacks, when Valverde fell off the back of the peloton yesterday and Costa went with him, Movistar lost a lot of GC-threatening-attack-clout. Quintana alone remainsin contention. Expect to see him right there with Froome until he decides to attack, hard. I think the young Colombian, who has shown that he is on form with repeated jumps ahead in service of Valverde earlier, could pose a challenge on Ventoux’s slopes, especially now that his team is more dedicated to his own plans—though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alejandro Valverde strike out for his own stage-winning glory now that he isn’t seen as a threat for the overall. Obviously this stage looks great for Contador, but until he proves that he can keep up with the under-30 crowd that crested Ax 3 Domaines before him, I’ll withhold my stage-winning tip—though I think he’ll be up there well ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez, who didn’t inspire confidence in the Dauphine and hasn’t yet in the Tour; additionally, this sort of long steep climb favors other climbers a bit more.

    Jakob Fuglsang doesn’t have great team support, but I do think he is capable of hauling tail up this sort of climb. Similarly, I’m not sure how much support his stage 9 companion Dan Martin will have, what with Talansky spending all of today in the breakaway, though Martin has inspired confidence on his own so far this Tour. If he can hang on long enough, the brutal gradient at the top would be a great place for his Ardennes-winning skillset. And then of course, it is Bastille Day, and that will likely spur the French climbers into relentless attack mode. Pierre Rolland’s quest for the polka dots would really benefit from making it up Ventoux first, but I question his ability to stay away or to climb with the heavy hitters. I don’t think Voeckler has it in him either. John Gadret and Romain Bardet have shown good form so far and wouldn’t surprise me with an effort to attack up the mountain that the GC riders will likely ignore. A month ago, I might have tipped Thibaut Pinot, and this stage does not require him to descend down Ventoux after he climbs it, but he hasn’t done much to prove he’s capable this Tour. In short, as uninteresting as it may be, I can’t look past Froome until others step up in the mountains. Mollema and Quintana also both came into this Tour with strong 2013s backing their claims and have performed accordingly so far, but others need to act quickly if they want to prove that they have finally rounded into form.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    The road to Gap looks like a perfect day for a breakaway, with an early Cat 3 and then Cat 2 climb, and a late Cat 2 summit less than fifteen kilometers from the finish. If the GC guys are taking it easy heading into a very difficult time trial and then the double climb of Alpe D’Huez, it will be a good opportunity for enterprising types to jump into a break and stay away all day. Orica-GreenEdge has a knack for this sort of thing with a number of competitors capable of hanging with a break, namely, the Simons Gerrans or Clake. Clarke has said he is at the Tour to get into breaks, and he didn’t go with the jump on stage 14, so I have to think he might try here. Sylvain Chavanel, who took Stage 14 easy, might like this sort of stage as well. As we saw today, the transitional stages where the GC men aren’t paying much attention to the break can be very difficult to call, so suffice it to say that any strong non-GC rider with a talent for climbing and jumping quickly into a breakaway is going to see this as a good opportunity. And of course, you can never count out Peter Sagan.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Simon Clarke | 2. Sylvain Chavanel

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    A mountain time trial gives Chris Froome another excellent opportunity to pick up time on his closest rivals, though the parcours should certainly reduce the gaps between the Sky captain and his more climbing-oriented challengers. Contador may have lost a lot of time at Mont St. Michel, but he did have a strong day on a course that did not play to his skillset. I expect a good day from him here; I think he’ll lose time, but less than he did in Stage 11. I also expect a very good performance from Bauke Mollema, having taken third on a very recent mountain trial of only five fewer kilometers shorter in the Tour de Suisse, a result that nabbed him second overall in GC to the winner of both that day and that tour, Rui Costa. Movistar may hold Costa back this week, but he’s got the talent to put up a strong result on stage 17 (as usual, this team ambition vs. time trialing prowess question holds true for many riders in the role of domestique, including Costa’s teammates Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, who may be taking it easy or may go full speed). The climbs will be much more to the liking of Movistar’s new leader than was the flat course on the coast, and I expect Quintana to do very well here. On the flip side, stage may be a bit too lumpy for Tony Martin’s liking. Michal Kwiatkowski has shown that he is not one to be doubted and while it’s a very techincal and vertically challenging time trial, I think he’ll make his mark.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Alberto Contador

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by akunamatata.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 10: Where We Stand After Nine Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 10-14

    MontStMichel

    Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up

    In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.

    But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.

    Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat

    It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits

    Watch Out For:

    Jonathan Castroviejo

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Watch Out For:

    Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by schlaeger.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-9

    Ax3Crop

    Day 7: Into the Mountains

    There was a lot of talk about the grueling first week of this year’s Tour de France, and while Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely tell you that today was more grueling than they would have liked, the GC riders did not have much trouble handling the hills or winds in Corsica or southern France. The only casualty so far who was a legitimate GC contender is the unfortunate Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who abandoned due to crash-related injuries. Ryder Hesjedal has a broken rib from a crash, but he hasn’t shown signs of giving up yet.

    Stage 4’s team time trial went almost as expected: Teams Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky were in the top 3, and Movistar, Garmin, and Saxo-Tinkoff had fine days. But the glory went to Orica-GreenEdge, who managed to cross the finish line with the fastest time… by less than one second. The feat put Simon Gerrans, winner of stage 3, into the yellow jersey.

    Stage 5 was a bit hilly, but the sprint teams did not have too much trouble hanging on. As expected, Kittel didn’t factor, but Cavendish and Greipel were there, and the Manxman nabbed his first win of the Tour.

    Stage 6 was a flat affair, and despite high winds, the pack finished together. Unfortunately Cavendish went down in a crash as the day was nearing its close, and while he made it back to the group and into the finishing sprint, he couldn’t match Andre Greipel, who took his first win of the Tour.

    Again, as the last VeloHuman update had anticipated, stage 7 proved too much for the flatland sprinters. A break tried to escape, but Sagan’s team Cannondale made up for their not-so-great performances in previous stages by leading the peloton for quite an amazing chunk of time, and still had the energy to catapult Sagan to his first Tour victory (albeit, with a bit of nifty handling from the Slovakian to get onto John Degenkolb’s wheel and then power past hiim) after three second place finishes. After a week, Sagan is quite comfortably in the lead for the points classification.

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Finally, a stage with some serious GC implications. After many flat kilometers, the peloton will be forced to tackle a Hors Categorie climb and then chug up a Cat 1 summit finish. At least, we have a stage that will end with time gaps between riders. It’s not the most grueling mountain stage, thanks to the basically 100 km of flatness, but it will force the yellow jersey contenders to duke it out over the last several kilometers, and by the end of the day, we’ll probably see a few of the expected contenders exposed as pretenders. It will be an opportunity for Alberto Contador to show that he’s rounded into form and capable of providing his trademark attacks, and Cadel Evans will need to inspire his team’s confidence making it up the last summit with the leaders: I doubt BMC will let Tejay tow the veteran rider up many more mountains this year. With a relatively short Cat 1 finish, it looks like a great day for Alejandro Valverde, with his stable of Movistar mountain goats (Costa, Quintana, and Amador) to provide strong support. With their strategy of attacking from every angle in mind, Garmin may fire off a shot of Dan Martin or Andrew Talansky. But the boys in black (Sky) will come to the fight with all their firepower, and the recent results to answer any questions of form. Froome has shown time and again that’s up for it, and now is a good time to start his quest for the GC lead. With a better TTT than any of the big contenders, a stage win here could put him in yellow.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Five categorized climbs (a Cat 2, and then four Cat 1s), but a long downhill finish: the 30km descent might make it tough for anyone to escape. It’s a very tough day, and moreso than last stage, scaling so many summits might weed out any pretenders for GC, but that finish makes this stage more of one not to lose. Joaquim Rodriguez had a forgettable Dauphine, and Katusha will be looking for him to show up over so many kilometers of up and down. This looks like the perfect day for the Sky train to make its best attempt at controlling the bunch, while a group of dedicated polka dot jersey seekers goes for the succession of points-offering mountains. We’ll probably see a lot of Pierre Rolland early in the day, but any attacks will be hard-pressed to stay alive for the long descent. If the train doesn’t roll over the line in succession, this stage could come down to the GC contender who most wants to pick up a stage win regardless of the time gaps he might pick up: sounds like a day for an enterprising hard-charger with climbing legs, like Ryder Hesjedal (if he’s capable), Cadel Evans (if he’s capable), or Alejandro Valverde. Until we know more about the form of the top guys, it’s hard to say who will be there at the end. Sky seems like another good bet for now.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Marceau R.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

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    Day 3: A Wild Corsican Start

    Eschewing a prologue this year, the Amaury Sport Organization decided to kick of the Tour de France with a flat stage and two hilly stages, ensuring action from the get go. We knew stage 1 would be hairy, ridden at times on narrow, windy roads even if it was flat, but we never could have predicted the crash-ridden affair that was. The Orica-GreenEdge team bus arrived at the finish late and (according to them team) was waved through the finish line toward the parking area… despite the fact that the gantry (a structure built set up several meters above the finish line that serves multiple purposes for signage and timing) had already been put in place. Predictably, the bus got stuck under the apparatus when the riders were less than an hour out, and what was initially a humorous affair turned crazy when the race staff could not manage to get the bus out. Over race radio, they informed the riders of an incident, and officially moved the finish line 3km closer… Minutes later, as the riders were closing in on the new makeshift finish line, staff succeeded in moving the bus, and back over race radio came the organizers, letting the riders know that the finish was now the original finshing line. Moments later (probably largely as a result of the confusion and rapid change in tempo), a few riders touched wheels and a massive crash took down a number of big names, including Peter Sagan, Tony Martin, and Alberto Contador. Stage favorite Mark Cavendish stayed upright but was stuck behind the carnage. A severely reduced bunch escaped the mess and among them was, Marcel Kittel, who managed to gallop to the stage win, his first in the Tour de France. Typically, if a crash occurs in the last three kilometers of a race, riders are given the time of the group they were with pre-crash; therefore, while the crash did not occur within there kilometers of the original finish, what with all the confusion about the finishing line caused through no fault of the riders, it was all but expected procedure when race organizers gave all riders the same time for overall classification on the day. While Tony Martin had to take a trip to the hospital, and others suffered bruises and cuts, nobody was too seriously injured.

    Marcel Kittel wore yellow for Stage 2, and all 198 original riders managed to made the start, scabs and sore elbows be damned. Unfortunately for Kittel, the hills proved to much for the young rider, and he was dropped from the bunch, along with Cavendish and Greipel, well before the finish line. What looked like Sagan’s day to lose became much more exciting when a group of six riders struck out for glory from the pack after the day’s final descent with only a few kilometers to go, Sylvain Chavanel among them. Sagan and the rest of the peloton gave vigorous chase and rounded up all but Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, who managed to huff and puff his way to a one second victory over the hard charging sprinters. With it came the yellow jersey and a 1 second lead over the others. Sagan took second on the day.

    Stage 3 was even hillier, and once again, the flatland sprinters found themselves distanced on the climbs, leaving familiar names like Peter Sagan, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Simon Gerrans to duke it out for the win. Gerrans enjoyed a perfect leadout round the final corners and down the straightaway, and despite Sagan’s best efforts to ride Orica-GreenEdge’s wheels (a number of Cannondale riders couldn’t hang on over the climbs) before launching toward the finish, he ran out of road and Gerrans claimed Orica’s first ever Tour de France win. Sagan nabbed another second and with it, the green jersey, while Bakelants remains in yellow with his single second lead over everyone else. Despite not yet bagging a stage win, Sagan sits in a strong position in the points competition with two near-wins to Cavendish/Greipel’s combined zero top 20s. All three have managed to keep it close in intermediate sprints.

    Now, I’ll look ahead to the next stretch of racing. We’ve moved to the mainland, and kick it off with a team time trial followed by three days before the Pyrenees.

    Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

    Stage 4’s team time trial is too flat and too short to see large time gap’s form, so I don’t think it will have too lasting an impact on the overall general classification; however, with 70+ riders sitting a one second back on Jan Bakelants and a number of non-selective stages to come, the highest placed rider on the winning team tomorrow will likely wear the yellow jersey for several days. Stage 1’s craziness shakes up the team time trial. Had some big names, including world’s-greatest-time-trialist, Tony Martin, not taken a hard fall in that mess, I’d consider this a showdown between Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky, both of whom bring very strong teams to the Tour. Without Martin (OPQS) or Geraint Thomas (Sky) at full strength, it’s going to be harder to predict; but I’d still take OPQS and Sky over the others. Omega Pharma’s 23-year old Michał Kwiatkowski stands to win yellow if his team can deliver a victory, and if they do, he might even be able to hold it for several days, being a capable climber. Chris Froome, Richie Porte, and Edvald Boasson Hagen will lead a powerful Sky team against them with the possibility of EBH taking yellow if they win. I don’t think I have any surprise names for this one teamwise, as the team time trial is a discipline that favors the strong teams. Other contenders include BMC, Garmin-Sharp, Belkin, Orica-GreenEdge, and Movistar — people seem to underrate Rui Costa and Nairo Quintana as time trialists.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 2. Sky

    Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

    With an early Category 3 climb and then three Cat 4s, it’s no gimme that Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel will make it to Marseille with the bunch. But the Missile and Gorilla know they have to make up a lot of ground for the green after missing out completely on the sprints at three straight finishes. If they don’t make it, obviously we can expect Sagan, EBH, Goss/Impey/Gerrans, and possibly John Degenkolb (though he failed to make it with the pack in both the second and third stages). However, I think most of the bunch gallopers are going to make it, and this could be Cavendish’s first stage win of the Tour. Hopefully, all three of Cav (probably), Greipel (probably), and Kittel (maybe) make it, so we can get a better idea of how each is doing form-wise in comparison to one another.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel

    Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

    A single Cat 4 climb stands out on an otherwise pancake-esque route. Barring a crash, it should be a day for the heavy hitter sprinters. GC contenders will try to stay clear of any messes. Peter Sagan will have a good opportunity to see whether his team, built almost completely around providing him with a strong leadout on the flats, can get him in contention here, especially after lackluster team showings on stage 2 and 3.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

    The day’s four climbs in order: Cat 3, Cat 2, Cat 3, Cat 4. Unfortunately for the breakaway artists, there are roughly thirty downhill kilometers leading into the finish line, meaning that while a breakaway might survive for a while, it seems likely that the Sagan types in the peloton will charge hard on the descending roads to sweep them up after the flatland sprinters are dropped. On the other hand, with the Pyrenees looming, the GC types might want to hold off, which works in favor of the break. It’s a perfect day for Orica-GreenEdge, a team with a number of riders who are capable of winning in a breakaway AND winning in a reduced sprint, making either scenario favorable for the Australian squad. If I had to make a pick, I’d bet the group comes back together on the descent, pitting Sagan against whomever Orica-GreenEdge is riding behind and other versatile riders with fast finishes, like Francesco Gavazzi (Astana), or Edvald Boasson Hagen or Michał Kwiatkowski if they don’t mind going all out the day before they take to the high mountains. Given the likelihood of strong performances in Stage 4’s TTT from a number of teams who have good sprinter-with-climbing-ability types, one of the riders gunning for this stage win could be sporting the yellow jersey in the blur of the bunch sprint… if they manage to catch the breakaway.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Francesco Gavazzi

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Jean François Bonachera.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

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    Day 0: Tour de France Eve

    The board is set. In just one day, the pieces will be in motion. My long pre-race outlook basically covers a lot of “Where We Stand.” The big storyline of the opening of the Tour is the absence of a prologue stage. The organizers have done away with the super-short time trial in favor of a real road race to kick off the Tour’s first visit to Corsica. Tomorrow, the best lineup of sprinters in recent Tour memory will set out with hopes of not only winning the day, but also of earning the yellow jersey (if only for a little while), an incredibly rare opportunity for the Mark Cavendishes and the Andre Greipels of the world. The first stage was obviously already going to be hotly contested, but with this added prestige up for grabs, OPQS, Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano and the other big sprint squads will be laying it all on the line. Meanwhile, Sky, Saxo-Tinkoff, BMC, Garmin and the rest of the of GC-focused teams will try to balance easing into the Tour with staying on their toes while the fast men fly around them. Here’s a quick look ahead at how I think things will pan out in Corsica.

    Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia 213km Flat

    It’s a true flat stage, and that heavily favors the guys I see as this race’s best three true sprinters: Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, and Marcel Kittel. Cavendish and his squad seem to have their act together after some early hiccups this year, but Greipel and Kittel have succeeded in outsprinting him before. I think Kittel will surprise some people; this Tour could be his coming out party on the grand stage. Still, the first and last stage of this Tour have probably been on Cavendish’s mind since the race profile was announced, and I think he’s the man to beat. However, the road has many twists and turns and narrow sections on the way to the finish line, and with so much prestige up for grabs, it could get pretty hairy out there. No real way to predict crashes and who will survive them, but don’t be surprised if a lot of guys go down scrambling for the win Saturday.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Mark Cavendish

    Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio 156km Medium Mountains

    The road goes up rather quickly, as the riders face a hilly stage on just the second day of the Tour. With four categorized climbs, including a Cat 3 less than 20m from the finish line, Stage 2 could be too much to ask for the pancake sprinters. I think this one will come down to the fast men who can hang on over the hills, and I see a quintet of Peter Sagan (Cannondale), Alexander Kristoff (Katusha), John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano, Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge), and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky). The profile looks perfect for Degenkolb, but he has been lackluster so far this year. Eddy Boss may not have the necessary team support. Goss needs to show the world that he’s capable of reaching his potential, and I think he’ll have this stage in his sights. Unfortunately, Sagan won’t be taking any days off on his quest for green, and given what we’ve seen from him, I’m calling this stage for him. If Degenkolb and Goss are still at the front of the peloton by the time the final summit is crested, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long range attack from Sagan after climbing that final lump. Kristoff’s sample size of results is too small at this point in his career to make a decent prediction on his results, but he’s been hot on the tougher sprints and could play spoiler here.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Peter Sagan

    Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi 145.5km Medium Mountains

    The Col de Marsolino, a Cat 2 climb less than 15km from the finish (after three other categorized climbs on the day), will likely prove too much for most of the traditional sprinters. This stage might even see a spirited breakaway attempt. It looks like it would be a great opportunity for Philippe Gilbert to nab his first win with an attack over the Marsolino, but I can’t tip him as my pick for the winner with his utter lack of results so far this year. Some of the punchier GC guys might take a whack at it as well, so watch out for Rodriguez, Valverde, Dan Martin, or Roman Kreuziger. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move from any of them (or the always aggressive Contador) over the last climb, but I would be a little surprised if such a move were allowed to make it across the line, instead leaving this stage to the fastest man still hanging on in the bunch. Tough as the day may be, I think Sagan has it in him to be there till the end. On the third stage of the recent Tour de Suisse, the Slovakian wunderkind managed to win a stage after making it up and over a Cat 1 climb near the finish line with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank, distancing even Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, and Tejay van Garderen. You can almost never count him out. I’d expect to see Alejandro Rodriguez in typical all-out form at the line if Sagan doesn’t make it with the group, but if I had to say one way or the other, I think he might be able to hang on for the ride.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Peter Sagan

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Lori Branham.