Tag: Tour de France

Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany › Revel – 197km

Tuesday’s stage is a tough one to forecast thanks to a small climb late in the day, though the rest of the stage will probably be relatively mundane. The Port d’Envalira is one heck of a climb but it comes so early in the action it’s not going to have much of an impact on the racing other than probably setting up the early break.

Then it’s a long descent and about 130km of mostly flat roads before the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, 1.8km at 6.6%, crested 7km from the finish. The road only really flattens out for the final 3km.

This stage could go any number of ways. It’s possible the break takes it, in case the sprinters’ teams aren’t all that interested in keeping the escapees under control with a testy finish on offer. It’s possible the bunch gets to the finish together, though slightly reduced from the late climb. It’s possible someone attacks out of the peloton on the climb. And it’s possible that the stage ends in a sprint. That’s a lot of options.

I like Peter Sagan to win the stage because he could triumph in any one of those four scenarios. He’s looked great even in the pure bunch sprints so far in the race, not to mention his skills as a solo artist and puncheur. He can be in the mix no matter what happens in Stage 10.

I think there’s a decent probability of a bunch sprint, too, so Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel could all be in play. Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, and in particular, Bryan Coquard are especially dangerous given the profile.

I see Tony Gallopin as a nice option to attack for the win. He’ll love the finale. Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabian Cancellara, and Steve Cummings could get involved with a long-range strike as well.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Bryan Coquard | 3. Tony Gallopin

Stage 8: Pau › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 184km

With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.

If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.

Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.

Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.

And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Nairo Quintana

Stage 7: L’Isle-Jourdain › Lac de Payolle – 162.5km

The first real climber’s stage of the Tour is here! Stage 7 is pretty straightforward: it’s all about the Cat. 1 Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and the ensuing descent to a slightly uphill finish.

The stage will certainly bring the climbers to the fore, but since the climb isn’t that challenging, I see the strong descenders and punchy finishers as having the best shot at winning the day.

Dan Martin certainly fits the bill. He’s looked good so far in the race and with his fast finish I think he can be a real threat here. His teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a danger man as well.

And while we’re on the subject of Ardennes-type riders, it’s certainly worth naming Alejandro Valverde, who would be my favorite here if he weren’t playing second fiddle to Nairo Quintana on GC. As it is, I still see Valverde with a good chance.

The same is true for Joaquím Rodríguez. This is a nice finish for him, and the stage in general could present a nice opportunity to try for a long-range attack.

The same goes for Vincenzo Nibali. I initially had him pegged as a top favorite for the stage before his first few days on Tour. He hasn’t been particularly impressive so far but this is still a profile that suits him.

Romain Bardet, Steve Cummings, Rui Costa, Rafal Majka, Tony Gallopin, Ilnur Zakarin, and, of course, any one of Quintana, Chris Froome, or Fabio Aru could deliver here as well.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère › Montauban – 190.5km

One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.

The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.

Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.

In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel