Tag: Tour de France

The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part III

Episode 19: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part III
With only five stages left in the Tour de France, this one’s for all the marbles. The Recon Ride looks back at the last week of racing, and previews the Alpine stages and the Paris finale of the 2015 Tour.
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The biggest race of the year is just five stages from completion. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm analyze the current race situation and the GC picture, and talk favorites and outsiders for the final five stages of the 2015 Tour. CyclingTips news editor Shane Stokes, on the ground at the race, joins the show to offer an insider perspective on cycling’s main event.

Photo by Frans de Wit (CC).

July 21, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bourg-de-Péage › Gap – 201km

In the final day of racing before the second rest day at the Tour, the peloton will take on a deceptively challenging 201km Stage 16 from Bourg-de-Péage to Gap. It’s the very definition of a transition stage, with the route taking the riders right into the foothills of the Alps in preparation for several tough days in the high mountains.

As such, the road takes a gentle upward bent for the first 120 kilometers that, despite lacking any categorization, will certainly put a bit of fatigue into the legs. Then comes the Cat. 2 Col de Cabre, 9.1km at 4.6%—it’s not an extremely difficult climb, but coming after a sustained gradient, it will hurt a lot more than the metrics might suggest.

A quick descent leads down to another uncategorized upward drag, before a speedy downhill into the second and final climb of the day, the Col de Manse. A Category 2 ascent at 8.9 kilometers at 5.6%, it’s another uphill test that will do more damage than the gradient would suggest.

From the top, it’s a steep, technical descent almost all the way to the finish line. Things only flatten out inside the final 4 kilometers.

The Tour has a great appreciation for Gap and for this particular route to the line—the race has finished there several times, especially in recent years. Every race is different, but if past trips to Gap are any indication of how this stage might play out, the breakaway will have a great chance, and the GC riders should be on their toes.

This is an excellent profile for a long-range move. The sprinters won’t really have a shot at the stage, and the Alps loom large, which will likely inspire the GC types to take it easy for most of the stage, at least until the final climb of the day. That will give the early breakaway an advantage, and even if an early move gets reeled in, others will likely be primed to jump clear as soon as the catch is made. Whatever the scenario, it will take a large engine, strong climbing legs, and excellent descending skills to win Stage 16. It’s long, there are a lot of vertical meters, and the descent into Gap is quite difficult—difficult enough to ruin Joseba Beloki’s career via a nasty crash, and difficult enough to force Lance Armstrong to show off his cyclocross skills when run off the road, when the Tour visited the same downhill in 2003.

Given the high likelihood of breakaway success (I rate odds of a long-range win at better than even) on Stage 16, there is really no single top favorite—there are only riders who will be more likely to succeed on the day.

Predicting which riders will make it into the main break has been an especially difficult proposition recently, with the teams of the GC outsiders putting in a lot of work to protect minor placings on the leaderboard. Plenty of riders at the fringes of and just beyond the Top 10 will be hoping to get up the road for stage honors here but that could be difficult given the competition.

Jan Bakelants has the wide array of talents, and the knack for getting into long-range moves, to thrive on Stage 16. He flashed excellent form on Stage 13, outclimbing nearly everyone on the steep uphill finale. If he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, the late climb and then the descent into gap will be an excellent opportunity for Bakelants to go in pursuit of a stage win. Alexis Vuillermoz and Romain Bardet give AG2R two more great options.

Michal Kwiatkowski is among the best descenders in the Tour de France peloton. On form, he combines uphill ability and finishing speed better than almost anyone in the race as well. At his best, Kwiatkowski would be a hot favorite for this stage, but he’s clearly not at 100% in this race. Still, Kwiatkowski has been active in the breakaway game and if he can hold on over the final climb, he’ll be deadly in the downhill run to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s stated main ambition coming into the Tour de France was Alberto Contador’s GC campaign, but the team’s stagehunting aspirations have grown stronger and stronger as the race has gone on. This is an excellent profile for Tinkoff-Saxo’s stagehunters. Peter Sagan won’t have an easy time getting into the breakaway, but it’s certainly a possibility, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’s got to be the top favorite. But even if Sagan misses out on a successful breakaway move, the team has other great options from afar. Michael Rogers is an excellent descender and won a similar stage from the break in last year’s Tour de France. Rafal Majka is in good form as well, and he’s a good bet to try to jump clear on the late climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez already has a pair of 2015 Tour wins, one from the breakaway. Rodríguez isn’t quite at his best form, but he’s still a stronger climber than most other potential breakaway candidates for the stage victory. The biggest question mark for Purito will be whether he tries to get into the move here, or whether he saves energy for the Alps.

Europcar also has options. Tommy Voeckler will appreciate the profile, and Cyril Gautier looks to be on very good form in this Tour (and has been active so far trying to get up the road). Pierre Rolland could try to get clear on the Col de Manse as well.

Vincenzo Nibali’s Grand Tour-winning climbing ability and elite descending skills will make him a top contender—if he’s at the front of the race at the end of Stage 16. Nibali’s current Top 10 GC position, though, may have his fringe GC rivals riding defensively to try to keep him from getting up the road, either in the early breakaway, or even late on in the day on the last climb. He’s got a great chance at Tour de France redemption via a stage win with this profile, but it won’t be a cakewalk getting clear of the peloton.

Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Dan Martin, Ryder Hesjedal, Jarlinson Pantano, Jakob Fuglsang, Wilco Kelderman, Simon Geschke, Rigoberto Urán, and Simon Yates are other candidates on the very long list of potential contenders from afar on Stage 16.

Regardless of whether the break is reeled in, the GC teams will likely drive a hard pace on the final climb—the Col de Manse has opened up gaps on the GC leaderboard in the past, and the day before a rest day in this year’s race, some of the more enterprising climbers in the pack could be on the lookout for opportunities to put their rivals into danger. That will make for a tough day in the peloton, likely to drop most of the traditional quick men from contention if the break does get caught.

Alejandro Valverde will be a favorite from the pack on Stage 16, given his strong descending abilities and terrific finishing kick. Tony Gallopin, whose climbing legs are more impressive right now than they’ve ever been, will have a great shot if this comes down to the pack as well, given his downhill skills and his impressive top-end speed. Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana can’t be counted out either. The latter has tried to test the former at every opportunity he’s gotten so far.

Michael Matthews, Matteo Trentin, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, and John Degenkolb are others who will have a shot with the potential for a reduced sprint from the peloton.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Jan Bakelants | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Alejandro Valverde

With a rest day on tap following Stage 16, the next stage preview will be up on Tuesday—in the meantime, check out the latest episode of the Recon Ride podcast, which previews the final five stages!

-Dane Cash

July 19, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Mende › Valence – 183km

Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.

The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.

From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.

The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.

If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.

Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.

André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.

Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.

John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.

Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.

Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.

Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.

The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.

Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Rodez › Mende – 178.5km

Greg Van Avermaet snagged a hilltop victory in the Tour’s 13th stage, and more hills await on Stage 14. The day opens with 44 kilometers of roads that slope gently upward, with a short Cat. 4 climb along the way. Then comes a fast descent into a very long (about 80 kilometers) stretch of flat roads, which could see the peloton taking a relatively leisurely approach after several tough days on the bike. With about 40km to go in the stage, things get bumpy again. First comes the Cat. 2 Côte de Sauveterre, 9km at 6%. After the downhill and then a short flat section comes the Cat. 4 Côte de Chabrits, followed by another downhill into the final climb. The Cat. 2 Côte de la Croix Neuve, 3km at 10.1%, is short but extremely challenging test.

Before the riders reach the Stage 14 finish line in Mende, they’ll have to overcome the steep Côte de la Croix Neuve. Anyone feeling a bit below 100% will be found out quickly on the double-digit gradient.

It’s steep throughout, especially near the midway point. From the top of the climb it’s about 1.5km of flat to the finish, with a sharp right-hander and then a hard left on the way to the line.

Stage 14 will be yet another breakaway-friendly stage—an up-and-down finale and a late climb that is far too hard for the sprinters are typically good ingredients for a successful long-range move. Still, this final climb might even be hard enough to inspire the GC teams to set up a high pace to set up a late battle. If the pack fights it out for the win, only the strongest climbers will be able to survive the Côte de la Croix Neuve to be in the mix for a stage win via either a move on the steep stuff or a very reduced sprint. The last time the Tour finished here, Joaquim Rodríguez, Alberto Contador, and Alexandre Vinokourov were the first three riders across the line. The potential breakaway scenario (which looks to be about a 50/50 proposition) will give the less Alpine-inclined riders a better shot at stage success, but strong climbing legs will still be very important on a final climb with an average gradient over 10%.

Joaquim Rodríguez will be among the top favorites in this explosive finale if he’s in the lead group, and the fact that he’s well behind on GC and now potentially in the hunt for breakaway wins makes him all the more dangerous. The profile of the majority of the stage (the relatively easy first 140 kilometers, that is) isn’t one that stands out as a likely jumping off point for a Purito breakaway, however, so it’s not a given that he’ll get up the road. He’s a favorite, but there are so many other factors at play on this stage besides the puncheur-friendly finish that make it impossible to name anyone a no-doubt contender.

Given his performances so far, Alexis Vuillermoz will be a rider to watch closely on Stage 14. The extreme gradient of the final climb suits him very well, and he’s especially dangerous given his ability to get up the road, as he’s not a GC threat. Teammates Romain Bardet and Jan Bakelants might be hoping to get involved too.

Dan Martin did not perform as well as expected on Stage 13 but he could bounce back for a bid at Stage 14 success. The finale is probably a bit hard for him against the top GC favorites but he’ll have a shot from the break. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will likely be on the lookout for opportunities to get into the breakaway mix as well.

Pierre Rolland tends to target stages with bumpier profiles throughout for his long-range moves, but a finale with plenty of launching pads for a classic Rolland attack make him impossible to count out. Compatriot and Europcar teammate Thomas Voeckler will also have a shot if he can get into the day’s breakaway.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, and Julián Arredondo are other strong long-range candidates for Stage 14.

Of the riders whose stage hopes rest within the pack, Alejandro Valverde is certainly among the favorites—the steep late climb will drop all the non-elite ascenders from contention, and the flat finish will give Valverde a chance to use his top-notch sprint. His biggest obstacle will be reining in the inevitable attacks from his rivals. This may be only a Cat. 2, but it’s steep enough that it could spur Chris Froome into action—he was very strong on the Mur de Huy and this longer trip up suits him even more. Despite his firm hold on the yellow jersey, Froome has not seemed particularly interested in allowing the other riders at the top of the GC leaderboard opportunities to shorten the gap. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana and the always dangerous Alberto Contador will also be in the mix if this comes down a GC battle.

Geraint Thomas, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, and Greg Van Avermaet (who is climbing better than ever) will be hoping to hold on on the steep stuff for a potential reduced sprint on the short section of flat that precedes the finish line. The Côte de Sauveterre is probably too hard for Peter Sagan, but don’t count him out entirely—despite his inability to win a stage so far in the Tour, he’s on great form at the moment.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Chris Froome

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 14.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Muret › Rodez – 198.5km

Joaquim Rodríguez’s Stage 12 win closed out three straight days with late HC-rated climbs, and now the Tour de France transitions to a stretch of slightly less mountainous stages—but that doesn’t mean things will get all that much easier. Stage 13 is a relatively long, hilly day with three categorized climbs (a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and a Cat. 4) in the last 70 kilometers. The final official climb comes 30km from the line, but it’s followed by a short uncategorized bump and then a longer one to La Primaube, just 10km from the finish. From there it’s downhill until the final 2.5km, where the road flattens out until 570 meters from the line. Then things kick sharply upward at a 9.6% gradient to the finish. The final drag to the line is not categorized, but it’s the sort of challenge that will serve to dramatically reduce the speed of heavier sprinter-types in the final moments of the stage.

A bumpy parcours late on in the stage and a finale that isn’t all that sprinter-friendly both favor the chances of the early breakaway. A tired peloton, limping along after three brutal days in the Pyrenees, could bid good riddance to the riders up the road. Then again, there aren’t a whole lot of stages for the fast finishers in this race, and that could inspire those teams with more versatile quick men to try to keep this one under control for the uphill sprint at the end of the day. Stage 13 looks to be yet another day where the outcome of the breakaway vs. peloton battle will be extremely tough to predict. In any case, the favorites for success will be punchy finishers with the endurance to still have something in the tank after a long day of racing, with those capable of winning from afar holding an extra advantage over those who will need to stay in the pack to have a shot.

Peter Sagan seems as likely as anyone to win Stage 13, though the nature of the profile makes it hard to call him a “favorite.” The finale is steeper than he’d prefer but the high-gradient stretch is short enough that his impressive finishing kick should outweigh (figuratively) the fact that he’s heavier than the more specialized puncheurs in the race. Sagan is on terrific form at the moment and this stage presents a fine opportunity for him to pick up a victory. He also can’t be ruled out as a possible long-range contender.

This should be an excellent day for Tony Gallopin: hilly with a sting in the tail, but not so mountainous as to bring the GC favorites sailing past on the high gradients. Ignoring other race circumstances, punchy, aggressive Gallopin would look the perfect candidate for a stage win. However, Lotto Soudal may decide that André Greipel has a chance in a potential sprint, even with this gradient (which I think is too steep for him), which could leave Gallopin riding a support role. Moreover, Gallopin’s decent GC position could keep him from getting involved in a potentially stage-winning breakaway. He will still be among the most dangerous riders to watch on Stage 13, but there are factors that may be a bit beyond his control that could hold him back.

Greg Van Avermaet has been in the mix on several stages so far in the 2015 Tour, and has climbed admirably to high placings on days with short steep finishes. This certainly qualifies. With the number of hilly days on tap, Van Avermaet has a great chance of coming away with a victory soon—if he sees this as a good opportunity, he could try to get into an early break, and that makes him especially dangerous.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has also put in several good rides so far, and this bumpy parcours suits him very well. He doesn’t quite have the finishing kick he used to, but he’s got a sharp eye for opportunities to escape the pack, and this is a good profile for such a talent.

Dan Martin will be a top favorite either from a breakaway (and he showed on Stage 11 that he’s not afraid to get up the road) or from the bunch in an uphill sprint. This finale is tailormade to his talents. He’s come close to success several times so far in this race—if he can manage to position himself better on Stage 13 than he has on previous stages, Martin has the explosiveness to take a win. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal could have a shot as well. He’s got more punch than many realize, and has a knack for getting into breakaways at this point in his career.

EQS has several very strong options for the stage. It’s probably too steep for Mark Cavendish, but Zdenek Stybar should thrive on the final climb. Matteo Trentin and even Rigoberto Urán could be in the mix as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, at his best, would love this stage, but after a brutal day in the breakaway, and not on top form, it seems unlikely that Kwiatkowski will be able to mount that much of a challenge for stage honors.

Katusha’s, Joaquim Rodríguez might also be a bit too tired after his Stage 12 win to try another day in the breakaway, but the steep kick to the line does suit the punchy Spaniard.

The Tommy Voeckler of 2015 is a far cry from the Tommy Voeckler of 2012, but the Stage 13 profile suits him nevertheless. Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel has been actively battling to get into the breakaway so far in the 2015 Tour, and could look to get aggressive on here. This intermediate stage looks good for his skillset. Another Frenchman, the explosive Alexis Vuillermoz, is deadly on the high gradients and capable of getting into a move if he sees the opportunity. He’d probably prefer a longer drag to the line, but will still be one to watch on Stage 13.

John Degenkolb has flashed impressive ability even on the very steep stuff during his career, but this will be a bigger challenge than he’d prefer, and for him to have any chance at winning, the stage will have to come down to a sprint, which isn’t even close to a given. He’s still got to be among the favorites in that scenario, but it’s going to be a tough ask for the versatile German. Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Davide Cimolai, and Alexander Kristoff are other versatile fast finishers whose chances will rely on this stage coming down to a sprint from the peloton, though should that happen, they’ll also have to fight with a number of aforementioned puncheurs and the more explosive GC types, with Alejandro Valverde far and away the biggest name in that department. In an uphill bunch kick, expect the Flèche Wallonne winner to shine. Few riders on this startlist are as well-suited to a finish like this.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Greg Van Avermaet | 3. Tony Gallopin

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 13.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Lannemezan › Plateau de Beille – 195km

With Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Cauterets, the Tour de France is two thirds of the way through a hard stretch of climbing days in the Pyrenees. Stage 12 should provide a thrilling Pyrenean finale. After 40 easy kilometers to start, it’s up and down all the way to the line. First up is the steep Col de Portet-d’Aspet, 4.3 kilometers at a vicious 9.7%. For a Cat. 2, it will be an unpleasant way to kick off what is set to be a very difficult day. From the top it’s about 20km of downhill to the foot of the Cat. 1 Col de la Core, 14.1km at 5.7%. It’s a climb that starts out relatively easy, but the final 8 kilometers are a bit more difficult, steadily above 6%. The descent from the summit runs to the town of Oust, where the road kicks up gently again on the way to the official start of the Cat. 1 Port de Lers climb, 12.9km at a 6% average gradient.

A very long descent follows before things flatten out for a short stretch before the road angles upward sharply—the Plateau de Beille finishing climb is one of the hardest challenges the riders will face in the Tour de France. 15.8 kilometers at 7.9%, it’s a long, steep trip up. It’s a mostly steady climb at least, but that won’t provide much comfort seeing as the gradient is high the entire way up, except at the very top where things flatten out in the final run to the line.

It may not have the name recognition of Stage 11’s Tourmalet, but Stage 12’s Plateau de Beille climb is an extremely difficult mountain test.

With so many vertical meters to overcome on the day and a finishing climb like the Plateau de Beille, Stage 12 is one for the pure climbing talents. There have already been plenty of testing days so far in this Tour de France of course, but there really isn’t any margin for weakness on Stage 12, which will find out those lacking fitness early, and make them pay all the way to the finish.

The profile should offer the breakaway a chance at success, and many of the likely escape candidates kept their powder dry on Stage 11; a strong enough group of aggressors has a chance at success here. However, this is the final day of high mountain racing for a little while, which will likely inspire hostilities among the GC types. What’s more, the final climb will require a significant gap for the breakaway to outlast any determined chasers. A breakaway of less-than-elite climbers isn’t likely to have much of a chance, and even one made up of top talents is going to have a hard time staying clear.

Chris Froome is far and away the strongest climber in the race right now, and he happens to enjoy the support of the strongest team as well. If he wants this stage, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him. The question is whether he’ll put in the effort with nearly 3 minutes of an advantage over his nearest rivals. He didn’t shy away from padding his GC lead in the 2013 Tour even after a dominant Stage 8 win, but there is no guarantee he’ll stick to that strategy here. Sky could also give Richie Porte or Geraint Thomas a chance to ride for a stage victory if Froome’s top lieutenants are still with him near the summit finish.

Nairo Quintana looked better on Stage 10 than he has all race, notching a 3rd-place finish on the stage, and he should continue to improve after an early bout with illness. At his best, he is probably one of the few riders capable of matching Froome on a finish like this. He will benefit from having a teammate high up on GC: Movistar’s one-two punch is a deadly weapon in this Tour, and the riders in dark blue will need to play all their cards if they want any hope at the Tour GC title now that Froome is already so far ahead—watch out for Alejandro Valverde here too.

Robert Gesink was surprisingly the 4th best finisher on Stage 10. If he can hold on with the top GC riders all the way up to the top of the finishing climb, he’s not bad in a reduced uphill sprint (his surprise win in the GP Québec in 2013 can attest to that). Compatriot Bauke Mollema made a nice jump from the pack to pick up a few seconds on Stage 11—he too has a nice finishing move and could get in the mix on Stage 12.

Alberto Contador is clearly not at his strongest in this Tour on the heels of his Giro win, but he can’t be counted out on an HC-rated summit finish. Tejay van Garderen was not really in with a chance at the stage victory on Stage 10’s climb to the line, but he rode well and could put in a good performance on Stage 12 if the pace is kept relatively steady in the finale.

Pierre Rolland finished ahead of Contador and van Garderen both on Stage 10, and he was right with the GC men on Stage 11. Unlike the aforementioned riders, high on the General Classification, Rolland is over 13 minutes down on Chris Froome on the overall leaderboard. If he wants to go for this from afar, he should be given a chance. He kept his breakaway powder dry on Stage 11, and while it’s always a challenge predicting who will get into the long-range moves, if Rolland can get some space on Stage 12 he’ll be a top favorite.

Rafal Majka didn’t keep any powder dry on Stage 11, riding all the way to a stage victory, but he looks to be on sharp form right now and could go for another long one here.

Joaquim Rodríguez lost a big chunk of time on Stage 11 and is not even on the fringes of the GC conversation anymore. It’s hard to say what that means for his form. If he’s only a little off of 100%, he could just be saving up for a big mountain push, so don’t count him out on this stage which would seem to suit his skillset.

Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafael Valls, Thibaut Pinot, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Louis Meintjes, and Romain Bardet are others on the very long list of riders whose stage victory chances are boosted by the fact that they’ll probably be given some breathing room to go on the attack from far out on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Pierre Rolland

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 12.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2015