Tag: Tour de France

Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Arras › Amiens – 189.5km

With Tony Martin in the yellow jersey following a hard-fought Stage 4 win, the fifth stage of the Tour should finally give the GC riders a chance to take a breath after several days of very hectic action early on in the race. The 189.5km course has small rollers throughout, but there are no categorized climbs to speak of on the day. Without any great launching pads, and given the relatively light helping of sprinter-friendly stages in this year’s Tour de France, the quick men will be locked in for this chance at a bunch finish. The finale into Amiens includes a late right hook inside the final kilometer, but after that it’s straight out to the line for roughly the final 500 meters, meaning that if this does come down to a bunch kick, it’s likely to be a high-speed one.

Etixx-QuickStep’s attempt to set Mark Cavendish up for a Stage 2 win was one of the worst performances by the typically very strong leadout squad in recent memory, and the poor execution left Cav eating wind far too early in the finale. As such, he didn’t even finish among the Top 3 on the day. If Stage 5 does come down to a sprint and Cavendish is involved, I think things will likely go down just a bit differently. He should be the fastest rider in this race, and in a big bunch sprint he will be hard to beat, especially if his (usually) solid leadout train can get it together.

André Greipel is probably the most likely to challenge Cavendish in a sprint, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Greipel won their first faceoff—the Etixx train was beat after a long day, and Greipel was able to rely on Cavendish himself for a great leadout. That seems unlikely to happen again. Greipel has terrific top speed regardless of the situation, but beating Cavendish a second time, not to mention all the other sprint favorites, will be a challenge.

Alexander Kristoff hasn’t made a big impact yet in this Tour de France but a bunch kick would be a great opportunity for him to change that. Kept out of contention on a Stage 4 that looked well-tailored to his skills by a mechanical, Kristoff will be determined to make something happen on Stage 5. Given how strong he’s been so far this year, I’m expecting him to contend for victory.

Giant-Alpecin gave away the win on Stage 4 by not chasing down a late attack by Tony Martin. They were probably afraid of leading out other riders to the stage win, but given the alternative of not having any chance at the win at all, it seems like a pretty foolish decision. In any case, the team will have another opportunity on Stage 5. I’ve always said that John Degenkolb’s pure speed is an underrated aspect of his very versatile game, and I do think he’s capable of winning even a big bunch kick against other favorites.

Peter Sagan has shown blazing form in this race, nearly beating the powerful André Greipel in a drag race on Stage 2. With another chance at a Tour stage win, something that’s eluded him for a long time now. Like Degenkolb, Sagan sometimes gets overlooked as a top sprinter because of his versatility, but don’t count him out even in a big bunch kick.

Nacer Bouhanni seems very likely to come out of that final turn in a good position given his ability to slot himself in perfectly for a sprint finish, and from there, he should be able to rely on his great burst of speed to fight for a result. That said, against this startlist, a win will be a challenge. He’s had plenty of success this year in lower-level races, and in a Dauphiné devoid of any other top-tier sprinting talent, but so far in 2015 he has yet to take a big victory over the caliber of riders in this race.

Arnaud Demaré, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Davide Cimolai are other riders who will hope to be in the mix on Stage 5, one of the few great opportunities in this Tour de France for the fast finishers.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @VeloHuman, and be sure to follow for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 7, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai – 223.5km

On the heels of another thrilling early stage in the 2015 Tour de France (won by Joaquim Rodríguez atop the Mur de Huy), the fourth day of the Tour brings the Classics-style opening to the race to a cobbled finale in northern France. It’s a comparatively long stage at 223.5 kilometers, and though mostly flat (there is only one categorized climb, a Cat. 4, early on in the day), a collection of seven cobblestone sectors will offer plenty of challenges to make things interesting.

The first comes about halfway through the day, and then the final six come between the 50km-to-go mark and the 10km-to-go mark, in relatively rapid succession and with never more than 10 kilometers without cobbles inside the final 50 kilometers of racing.

It’s important to point out here that the parcours of the cobbled stage in the 2015 Tour looks a bit different from the parcours of the decisive Stage 5 of the 2014 Tour. On the one hand, this day will be longer than that one was, by about 70 kilomteters. On the other hand, the cobbled sectors aren’t quite as vicious this year. At the moment, the weather forecast does call for some difficult conditions for Stage 4, though things don’t appear to be as dire as they were for last year’s cobbled stage. Still, things could get pretty windy, and there is some chance of rain.

After a painful crash in Stage 3, Fabian Cancellara has abandoned the race, but there are still plenty of big-name Classics riders on the startlist who have had their sights on this stage since it was announced months ago. The GC riders, on the other hand, will be holding on as best they can, hoping to limit potential losses, especially after what happened in last year’s cobblestone ride, where Vincenzo Nibali took a massive chunk of time over all of his rivals on the rough roads in France. Expect to see all sorts of attacks, expect to see a few crashes, and definitely expect to see a severely reduced peloton near the end of the day—at the same time, however, don’t be too surprised if this ends in a reduced sprint. The road is pretty flat from start to finish and the riders aren’t taking on the Arenberg Trench or the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which could allow things to stay compact at the front for those tough enough to survive the long day.

Alexander Kristoff, winner of the 2015 Tour of Flanders, is terrific on this sort of terrain. He showed in De Ronde this year that he is fully capable of winning a bike race by getting into a decisive move far from the finish line; he’s also an elite sprinter, one of the best in the race, and that combination makes him dangerous here. He proved his form with a stage win in the Tour de Suisse, and should be ready for action here in the Tour’s Stage 4. Watch out for teammate Luca Paolini as well.

John Degenkolb took a Roubaix victory this year in an impressive style of his own, also jumping into a small move late in the race and closing a sizeable gap to a lead group mostly of his own accord to take the win. Like Kristoff, he’s got proven ability as a Classics specialist, not just as a sprinter who can handle cobbles. I’m not as confident that the form is quite at the level it needs to be, but Degenkolb will be among the very top favorites for this stage.

Peter Sagan has already racked up one 2nd-place finish in this Tour after collecting quite a few last year. He’ll have another chance for a big result (for him, a win is obviously the most ideal result here) on Stage 4. Sagan very nearly pipped André Greipel in a pure sprint on Stage 2, suggesting that he’s on absolutely blazing form right now—the biggest question for the versatile Slovakian is whether or not he’ll have the freedom to get aggressive with the team’s main focus in this race being Alberto Contador’s GC chances. I think he’ll have some breathing room if the opportunities are there, but I don’t expect him to get involved in anything from too far out.

Greg Van Avermaet has yet to take a marquee Spring Classics victory but he’s always on point on the cobbles, and not bad in a fast finish either. Van Avermaet has looked very strong these past few weeks, and even finished 15th on the Mur de Huy on Stage 3 (ahead of names like Urán, Bardet, Barguil, Peraud, and many others). This is a great opportunity for a Tour victory for him, so expect to see some aggression late on in the stage.

Sep Vanmarcke doesn’t have quite the finishing kick that some of the other contenders here bring to the table, meaning that he’ll need to try to break clear on the rough terrain. If the weather is indeed bad, the opportunities will certainly be there. The form of the Belgian Classics specialist tends to quiet down every year after the spring, but with a great chance for a win in the sport’s biggest race, I think it’s fair to expect Vanmarcke to be in decent shape and hunting success here.

Lars Boom won last year’s crazy cobbled stage, and he delivered a few good results in the Classics with new team Astana this year. Expect another good performance on the cobbles of the Tour this year. Zdenek Stybar would probably prefer a tougher parcours but he’s a well-rounded rider who can make something happen on almost any terrain, and should fight with the top favorites for the win. Edvald Boasson Hagen has been in great shape lately and will be looking to collect some redemption after a Classics season marred by injury. Sylvain Chavanel also had a disappointing spring campaign but he’s also shown strong form at times this year and could thrive on Stage 4.

André Greipel flashed good form throughout the Classics this year and could surprise people in this stage—it’s flat enough that a flat finish could be in store. Bad weather could deter his chances though; he was great in the nasty conditions of Stage 3 on Monday but in his career he’s generally been less successful in the wet. Arnaud Demaré is another quick man with the ability to handle a few cobbles. Bryan Coquard and Sam Bennett could be up there as well, and don’t count out Mark Cavendish, who has won some big cobbled races in the past.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alexander Kristoff | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 6, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Antwerp › Huy – 159.5km

Following a thrilling Stage 2 that, despite it’s Greipel-won sprint finale, saw several GC contenders lose chunks of time, the Tour de France will throw another stage with potential GC implications at the peloton early on in the race. The Tour may be leaving the Netherlands but it isn’t leaving the “Low Countries” altogether—Stage 3 will take the riders from Antwerp to Wallonia’s Ardennes region for a finish in Flèche Wallonne territory. The yellow jersey hopefuls will again need to be on their toes with this profile.

It’s not a long stage at 159.5km (not nearly as long as La Flèche Wallonne), but things get bumpy late in the day, especially in the final 20 kilometers, where the pack will hit the Cat. 4 Cote d’Ereffe, and then a quick uncategorized ascent, and then the Cat. 4 Cote de Cherave before the stage finish on the classic Mur de Huy. It’s only 1.3km from the bottom to the top but the winding road up the Mur averages 9.6%, with a 19% section along the way. The Cat. 3 finish will have GC contenders and climbing-oriented stagehunters alike vying for position on the vicious gradient.

Alejandro Valverde won La Flèche Wallonne this year for the third time in his career. An elite climber with a devastating kick uphill, he has to be the favorite here. Very few riders can explode ahead like Valverde on a climb like this, and given his brilliant form all season, there’s little reason to think he won’t be ready for lunch here on Stage 3. The motivation to charge up the Mur will be sky-high after Movistar’s big losses on Stage 2. Teammate Nairo Quintana, top-notch climber that he is, will also be a rider to watch. He doesn’t have the finishing speed that Valverde has, but anything with a gradient in the 9% range is favored terrain for Quintana.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another past Flèche Wallonne winner with a chance. He had a disappointing Ardennes campaign this season but has also shown flashes of brilliance this season (his País Vasco was incredible). He did crash on Stage 2, however, which may have left him a bit banged up coming into this stage.

Dan Martin has never won La Flèche Wallonne, but he’s been close multiple times. After a poor run in this year’s Ardennes, Martin is looking for some success in this Tour, and this is a great stage for him. He should be in the mix for the victory.

Julian Arredondo is typically very strong on this sort of finish, though he’s never actually landed a Flèche Wallonne Top 10. He lost a chunk of time on Stage 2 but will have a shot at redemption here. His teammate Bauke Mollema also has a nice upward kick, with several great results on the Mur in the past.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options for Stage 3. Michael Albasini is probably the team’s best bet, as he has done well on this climb in the past, though form is a bit of a question mark for Albasini. Simon Gerrans, excellent in an uphill sprint, is another option. Simon Yates, who has been in great shape pretty much all season long, could surprise people. He doesn’t have much Ardennes experience yet but this is a good profile for him.

World champ Michal Kwiatkowski has had good results on the Mur in the past and could shine in Stage 3. Meanwhile, his teammate Rigoberto Urán is suddenly in the GC conversation after an under-the-radar start. He has a great finishing kick and could continue to surprise people here if he can position himself well to battle it out with the big favorites. Vincenzo Nibali, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Tim Wellens, and possibly even Peter Sagan will like the profile as well. And don’t count out Chris Froome just because he’s not an Ardennes specialist—this is a steep finishing climb in a Tour de France stage, and that’s reason enough for Froome to be seen as a big threat.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 5, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Utrecht › Zélande – 166km

After Rohan Dennis took a somewhat surprising Stage 1 victory, the Tour de France will stay in the Netherlands for Stage 2. A glimpse of the profile might give one the impression that the day will be a cut and dry sprint-fest, but the weather forecast might have something else in mind.

166 kilometers of pancake flat, Stage 2 certainly has the parcours to favor the sprinters, but crosswinds of the coastal Netherlands and a potential for rain in the afternoon will likely make this interesting. We can probably expect the echelons and the constant battling for safer positions typical of bike racing in this part of the world, which will challenge anyone with stage aspirations long before a potential bunch gallop to the finish line.

The profile suits Mark Cavendish, who is the best pure sprinter in this race, and while the weather will make this stage harder to predict than it might otherwise be, he should still be the favorite. Not only is Cavendish an excellent sprinter; he also happens to ride for Classics super-team Etixx-Quick-Step. If there is any squad likely to benefit from the conditions, it’s Cav’s own team.

André Greipel’s also-Belgian Lotto-Soudal team will be comfortable in questionable conditions as well, and in-form Greipel might actually be able to challenge Cavendish even in a straight up sprint. He has a good chance here, especially if his teammates can help put the pressure on his rivals.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is great in a pure sprint, but he really shines after a tough day in the saddle. The worse the weather is on Stage 2, the better his chances will become. He’s one of several riders in the Tour, in fact, who combine Classics grit with sprinting prowess. John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, and Arnaud Demaré are others. Sagan, in particular, could try to get aggressive and maybe attempt to leave some of sprinting opponents behind on the road to Zélande to make for an easier finale. Sam Bennett, Nacer Bouhanni, Greg Van Avermaet, the MTN duo of Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen, Bryan Coquard and Michael Matthews are others with a chance on Stage 2.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 4, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (ITT): Utrecht > Utrecht – 13.8km

The Tour de France gets underway with a flat 13.8-kilometer time trial in Utrecht. It’s a little longer than a traditional prologue, but still short enough that those riders with a bit of pop could enjoy a chance to churn out a very high tempo for the duration of the trip along the course. There are no hills to speak of, though there are several corners that will require some deft bike handling.

Tony Martin is the best pure time trialing talent in the race, and an excellent bike handler. He’d probably prefer something a bit longer to put his big engine on display, but this is still a good course for him. It’s probably safe to assume that Martin has had his eye on the yellow jersey since the Stage 1 was announced, and when Martin focuses his full attention on a time trial, it’s almost impossible to beat him.

Tom Dumoulin will have a chance. His explosiveness should translate favorably on this shorter parcours, and he is, of course, riding in front of a home crowd. He’s had trouble beating Martin head-to-head in the past, but this is an ideal scenario for him to overcome those difficulties.

Fabian Cancellara also has a good shot here on Stage 1. The terrain suits him and he looked strong in the Tour de Suisse time trials. The veteran Classics star knows how to handle pressure and in the spotlight of the Tour’s busy first stage, he should shine.

The stage winner will very likely come from the aforementioned trio of favorites, but there are a few outsiders who could contend . Adriano Malori has been knocking at the door of the elite time trialing club for a little while now. Short courses tend to suit him. Watch out for the Italian Movistar rider. Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Rohan Dennis, Alex Dowsett, Peter Sagan, and Greg Van Avermaet are others with a chance at Stage 1 success and the yellow jersey on offer as well.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 1. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 3, 2015