Tag: Tour Down Under

Tour Down Under 2015 Preview

The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.

Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.

The Route

There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.

Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.

Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.

Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.

The GC Contenders

Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.

Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.

Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.

Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.

Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.

Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.

The Stagehunters

On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.

Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.

Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

General Classification Winner: Richie Porte
GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey
Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado

VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kym Della-Torre.

January 17, 2015
Heinrich Haussler: “I’m Ready to Race.”

The past several seasons have not been easy for two-time Monument runner-up and Tour de France stage-winner Heinrich Haussler. After a marquee 2009 campaign in which he racked up those big results and a few others, crashes and injuries slowed him down for a number of the seasons that followed. Haussler recovered from a broken hip and pelvis in 2013 to race a full 2014 schedule, ultimately taking a stage win in Bayern Rundfahrt and a few top tens (including a 2nd place in the Tour de France) on the year, though the results were still not where they used to be.

But 2015 is a new year for Haussler, and, importantly, he will take on this season with last year’s mileage and an offseason of good training as a solid starting point, rather than having to start from scratch after having his season derailed by injury or surgery.

Writing for CyclingTips, VeloHuman caught up with Haussler ahead of Sunday’s National Championships Race. You can check out the conversation there or here:

VH: This will be your first Australian National Champs race and your first Tour Down Under since 2012. What motivated you this year to be in Australia for January?

HH: I wanted to try something different and also get a lot of good training in my legs. We already came out to Australia in the middle of December just to get used to the heat, and you can train just better here than you can in Europe. Last week for example, the whole of Europe was just covered in snow, it was just freezing, negative temperatures, and no one could train. So that was really the main idea, and second, we were waiting on whether we were going to go Pro Tour or not. So if we were – and we did get the Pro Tour spot – we’d have to do Down Under, and I wanted to do Nationals, Down Under, and Cadel Evans’s race.

VH: What is it like training here [Haussler and his IAM team have been in the alpine town of Bright over Christmas holidays]? What do you think it’s going to be like racing in front of Australian crowds?

HH: The way I’ve seen it the last few years, it’s just getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and all of a sudden I notice it when I’m out training, there’s just so many cyclists here, it’s amazing. It’s grown so much in the last decade or so. It’s good for cycling. I’m really looking forward to racing Down Under. I’ve always followed the last few years on TV, and I saw that my form was good so I wanted to try to do something on one or two stages.

VH: You made it through 2014 relatively unscathed after a tough 2013, and of course before that you’d had some misfortune with crashes and injuries here and there for a few seasons running. Do you feel that a full season on the road and then a full offseason to follow has given you an opportunity to get to your very best for 2015?

HH: Yeah. I’m not saying now that I’m at my “best” but I was just talking to a few mates about that the other day. This is the first year since 2009 where I’ve gone through a full season of good racing in my legs without having any bad crashes or an operation or breaking a bone or something. It makes a massive difference, getting back on the bike in the winter, getting ready, it just puts you on another level. And also, having a Grand Tour in your legs. So I’m really excited and I’m ready to go for this year and just see where it takes me.

VH: Do you feel like your offseason training went according to plan?

HH: Yeah, I mean, the stuff that I’m doing now in training, it’s making me a little bit excited. And I’m ready to race.

CT: The National Champs circuit looks pretty open this year. It’s never easy taking on a team with greater numbers like GreenEdge in that race, and you’ve said that you’re not necessarily at your very best peak form at this part of the season, but are you expecting to contend for the National Championship race?

VH: Now that Gerro is out with a broken collarbone it’s just opened it up completely. The way Richie [Porte] rode the time trial yesterday, he’s just super strong, so it’s going to be an interesting race. Either twenty guys go up the road in the first two laps and the right guys are in it and then it’s already game over, or maybe teams like Sky or BMC, they really want to try to keep it together for those last two laps for Richie and Cadel. But without Gerro there, they [Orica-GreenEdge] have the numbers but they’re not really a team that I’m worrying about

CT: Do you have a strategy in mind for the race?

VH: There’s no big strategy about it. Either me or [David] Tanner in the group in the beginning, and if it’s a good group – obviously we know who needs to be in the group, if there’s three or four GreenEdge guys, two BMC, and a Sky, and a few of the national teams – then the group is going to the go to the finish. But if it’s only six or seven guys that get up the road, then obviously you can control the race. You know, we’ll see, if twenty guys go up the road, we have to be there. If not, sit tight, wait, wait, save energy and see what we can do in the last two or three laps. The course is that hard that I think there’s nothing else you can do. If one guy goes with six or seven laps to go, you’re just going to burn yourself.

CT: After Nationals it’s on to the Tour Down Under. With the January start, some riders come into the Tour Down Under with lowered expectations, with big goals that might be a bit later in the season. Would you say that’s the case for you, or are you thinking you might be able to pick up a win or two in the race?

VH: Yeah, that’d be nice if it would happen! But a lot of people underestimate the Tour Down Under. They think, you know, come out to Australia, first race of the year, the stages are only 140 km. But when I came in 2012, it was just as hard as the Pro Tour races in Europe. . . . It’s still absolute full gas. . . . There’s points up for grabs, they want to show the sponsors, the teams on TV, there’s no mucking around anymore. Everyone comes here 100%. But I’ll be ready to try and do something.

CT: Have you had a chance to look at the roadbook and pinpoint the days that fit your skillset?

VH: Well there’s four stages where I could have a go. The other two, with Willunga and the new hilltop finish, they’re not for me. But we’re coming out with a really good team, a strong team. We’ve got a new climbing guy, [Jarlinson] Pantano. We’ll see how he goes, we’ll try to keep him up there on GC. But like I said, it’s hard racing. Even the second stage, in Stirling, what I saw last year, there were a lot of good hill climbers in the final and not so many sprinters left, but I think that could be a stage where I could have a go, I’ll just have to see what happens in the race.

CT: So Jarlinson Pantano is the GC leader for the team?

VH: I’d say so. The rest of the guys aren’t really top climbers. Though, even David Tanner, he also came out to Australia, we’ve been training together, you never know what he can do.

CT: Do you feel that your offseason has gotten you to the level you need to be for the Classics?

VH: To be honest I don’t think I’ve ever been this strong before.

CT: For the spring is it all-in for the Classics?

VH: Definitely. I told the team that I don’t want to do the Tour this year. It’s 100% for the Classics.

CT: So no Tour de France?

VH: It’s just too much stress. I’d rather do the one-day races, and afterwards have a little bit of rest for the summer and build towards the next one-day races, Eneco Tour and Hamburg, Plouay, maybe the races in Canada and then build up again for the World Championships. If you do three times building up, it’s really hard to calculate and you’ve got to get things 100% so I’d rather do one big block, have a rest, do another big block of altitude maybe, and then get ready for the second part of the season. The thing is, if you come out of the Tour already cooked and really fatigued, you might still go to races but the season is already over.

CT: This will be IAM’s first year at the WorldTour level. You are one of the veterans on the squad who have already ridden at a Pro Tour level in the past. How well do you think IAM will be able to contend with that full WorldTour schedule on the horizon, this year and beyond?

VH: For the future, I hope Michel [Thétaz, team founder and General Manger] hangs around. I’ve never met a guy like him before, it’s amazing, there should be more guys like him in the sport. I have absolutely no worries about the team for this year. We’ve got a lot of good new riders, riders that are very solid, that can work hard, that can do their job. But also, especially for me, new guys for the Classics, like Jonas Van Genechten and Dries Devenyns. We already knew these guys before, I’ve seen them and how well they ride, and I’m absolutely really happy with the team. I think a lot of the people at the end of the season will wonder: where did IAM come from? Why were they so good this year?

CT: By season’s end, what will it take for you to consider 2015 to have been a success?

VH: In 2012 I had good racing again in the legs, and then in 2013 I was kind of back, I had top 10s again, in the Classics I could attack, I could actually do stuff and just have that feeling again, to be able to go on the cobbles, to have that sensation where you could stand up and attack. I want to get back to that. I want to have fun racing again. Sometimes it’s really frustrating, because you haven’t had the legs and you see the guys go up the road and you just think, “Fuck, what am I doing here? I can do this!” But I just didn’t have the form. But it’ll come. Just normal stuff, at the training camp, sitting around with your teammates, eating, laughing, joking, the spirit is just different this year. And that will reflect also on our results. It’s a bit of a family feeling. You have to have that, you have to be happy in your own environment. You know what I mean? If you are on a team and you’re not happy, sitting in a bus, guys next you and you don’t talk to them, obviously you’re not going to ride well because you don’t want to be there. I just want to get back to that level where I was, for example, in 2009 or 2013.

CT: Is there one particular race where you feel like you have unfinished business?

VH: All the Classics. They’re all open for me. I love these races. I especially love Sanremo. Obviously it’s going to be very, very difficult to win or get a good result there, but it’s still my number one goal to be good in the Classics and get the highest result possible.

CT: With San Remo being around the corner now, how do you feel about the 2015 San Remo route?

VH: I think it’s perfect. That is San Remo. That’s the way it should be. They shouldn’t always be trying to make these races harder and changing the tradition of the Classics. I know some organizers just want to change races and make them even harder and harder and harder. That’s the way it’s been for the last couple of years. But I think, yeah, not just me, but a lot of the other guys out there, they’re happy with the way the route it’s, that’s the way it should stay.

-Dane Cash for CyclingTips

Photo by Katie Chan.

January 9, 2015
Tour Down Under 2014 Post-race Impressions: Big Names Battle for the Year’s First Big Win

Recapping 2014’s First WorldTour Race

When the season is in high gear I’ll only be recapping the bigger races or the blocks of bigger races (ie., the Ardennes week), but there are over thirty WorldTour-less days ahead and the six day race that finished in Adelaide on Sunday is more than worthy of some analysis. As such, I’ve compiled a few takeaways from the big January event.

Any sort of retrospective on the Tour Down Under that aims to draw conclusions with meaningful predictive power ought to make a clear disclaimer before offering any emphatic endorsements of this rider or that for the new year: due to its position on the calendar, more than a month before the next race at the highest level of the sport, the Tour Down Under is not always a reliable test of rider form for a new season. Cameron Meyer, who won the 2011 edition, and Tom-Jelte Slagter, winner of the 2013 TDU, proceeded to have anonymous seasons after their bright victories in Australia to start the season. Simon Gerrans, on the other hand, went on to nab his first career Monument classic victory after he won the 2012 edition of the race. In other words, perhaps the top form exhibited again by Gerrans this week is a sign of future success (and he is targeting Milano-San Remo again this year), or perhaps it is a poor indicator of probable form months from now: the point is simply that one ought to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this race.

The Narrative, and Takeaways from the Race

Caveats made, on with the analysis. The GC-leading quartet of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, and Richie Porte were all particularly impressive in their 2014 WorldTour debuts. Only one second separated 1st and 2nd place, and only ten seconds separated 1st and 4th; all four won stages. Gerrans was a big favorite coming into the race (tipped by yours truly to win), and the other three were also included in VeloHuman’s pre-race top 10, so it can’t be said that there was all that much surprising at the very top of the General Classification. For what it’s worth, Gerrans looked on top form and displayed his trademark versatility, climbing with the best and sprinting for every possible second; should he maintain that form into the spring, the rest of the peloton had better watch out. Said versatility nabbed him the bonus seconds necessary to get the tiniest of legs up on Cadel Evans for the overall victory. Evans and Richie Porte both put in strong performances showing their own high level of form. Both are targeting later season Grand Tour success, and this certainly looks to have been a fine start; Porte looks to be aiming for success at the Giro this year, and after seeing potential main Giro Nairo Quintana take an emphatic win in the Tour de San Luis this week, the Sky rider will be happy to have had some success of his own in the meantime.

Of the foursome that quickly become the group of real contenders in this race, Diego Ulissi stands out to me as the rider whose performance is most worthy of a place in any analysis of this race’s “takeaways.” In 2011, the Italian put himself on the map with a Giro stage win, and he went on to pick up a number of smaller Italian races over the next year or so. Last year, he appeared to reach another level with a good showing in Paris-Nice and a stage win in the Tour of Poland before a hot October that saw him nab three Italian one-day race victories, including prestigious semi-classic Milano-Torino. However, so many of his successes have come either against weaker competition or at just one step below the highest level of the sport–and while his combination of explosive climbing and fast finishing have marked him out as one to watch, but he’s also disappeared on some of the larger stages. When he was not lighting up the Italian semi-classics, he was a DNF in the World Championship race and an also-ran at Il Lombardia. In the 2014 Tour Down Under, however, he went up against some of the sport’s very best and consistently performed at the elite level. He blew past Evans and Gerrans in Stage 2 after timing his sprint perfectly, and held onto his high place all the way through to the end, managing his podium spot with a total of four top 5 finishes in Australia, and it is that day-in, day-out consistency that he has been lacking. After this, I know I’ll be more confident tipping Ulissi to hold his own for more than a flash of brilliance in future races.

24 year old Nathan Haas proved to be perhaps the biggest surprise of the race. Although he won the 2011 Japan Cup Cycle Road Race with his impressive finishing kick and claimed 2nd in the 2012 Tour of Britain to Jonathan Tiernan-Locke, Haas has not had many chances to shine at the WorldTour level against the biggest names around. Not until this past week, at least. When pain from a pre-race injury proved to be the end of GC hopes for Rohan Dennis, Garmin-Sharp didn’t miss a beat, and Nathan Haas stepped right up to the plate. While he’s obviously showed ability in the past, I think it’s safe to say that not many people expected him to finish in the top 20 of every stage in the Tour Down Under, including a second place finish at the head of the bunch sprint behind Cadel Evans on stage 3. His consistent performance landed him 5th overall in the Tour. It will be interesting to see if Garmin quickly gives him another opportunity to follow up on his stellar trip home to Australia. Hopefully, we will have a chance to watch Haas building on this week again soon.

Geraint Thomas wasn’t really a surprise in the top 10, but it was nice to see him climbing at such a high level. As I said in the initial preview, I feel that much is said about Geraint Thomas despite a general lack of data, but his 8th place here, only a few seconds behind proven climber Robert Gesink, is another positive showing, especially given the fact the Sky was clearly riding for Richie Porte in this race. Daryl Impey, as well, wasn’t a big surprise in the top 10, but to land in that company while also riding in such successful support for Simon Gerrans is no small feat–Impey has really put together a fine last twelve months, and Orica-GreenEdge has surely taken note. Look to see Impey feature more as the main man for the Australian squad in races to come this year.

Though his legend has grown as he has built an amazing streak of consecutive Grand Tour appearances, Adam Hansen has only claimed a few major successes in his career (most notably, a Giro stage last year). However, the Australian nabbed the King of the Mountains jersey and a spot in the top 10 overall in the Tour Down Under with a noteworthy combination of the aggressive style necessary to pick up mountain points in a break and the endurance necessary to hang on in the bunch after being swept back into the peloton. His Lotto-Belisol squad, so often a sprint-first team, has got to be pleased with the showing, and they must be looking forward to the next race knowing that Hansen has what it takes to stay out front for the long haul, proudly displaying the Lotto-Belisol logo.

Speaking of Lotto-Belisol and sprints, there wasn’t really any question of competition in the two flat days at this year’s TDU. Andre Greipel blew away his opponents, and he did it largely thanks to his dominant leadout train. In stage 4, his leadout man Jurgen Roelandts was so strong that he finished 2nd behind Greipel himself and ahead of the designated sprinters of every other team in the race. Greipel’s stage 6 leadout was similarly impressive; from the moment he kicked it was clear the Gorilla would claim the day. Coming into the race, the sprints in this Tour looked to be a battle royale between Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel, but Kittel was anonymous throughout the week, his only success in Australia a victory at the warm-up prelude, the People’s Choice Classic. At age 31, Greipel is still riding high, and his leadout only gets better with time.

Astana and Movistar both failed to land any of their very talented squads in the top 10, which must be a letdown for both teams; Francesco Gavazzi and Javier Moreno both started well only to be left in the dust when Cadel Evans forced serious selection on stage 3. Trek’s Frank Schleck also had a rather forgettable trip to Adelaide, unable to hang on when the going got tough. That Katusha’s squad of unknowns could place a man in the top 10 (chapeau to Egor Silin, by the way!) must not sit well with any of those teams.

Fortunately, everyone gets another shot at glory relatively soon, as, even with a fair bit of time until the next big race, the 2014 season is officially underway. The Tour Down Under gave us a first glimpse at many of the big names in the pro peloton and the early classics should be a good opportunity for guys like Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi to show of continued form. Don’t forget about races like the Volta ao Algarve and the Tour Méditerranéen Cycliste Professionnel during the month and a half long drought before the next WorldTour race, Paris-Nice.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Kym Della-Torre.

January 29, 2014
Tour Down Under 2014 Preview

Lifting the Curtain on the 2014 WorldTour

The long offseason break is finally coming to an end. The WorldTour peloton is getting clipped back in at the 2014 Santos Tour Down Under this Tuesday in Nuriootpa (and a sizeable group is also gearing up for the Tour de San Luis in Argentina instead). While the cyclocross season draws to its conclusion in the frigid Northern Hemisphere, the WorldTour kicks off under the hot Australian sun. Since we last watched the biggest names in the sport hunting for success on the road, the cycling world has seen a few changes, as it does every year. Some big names have moved to new teams. A few new faces will make appearances at the highest level, where others have hung up the proverbial cleats. Vacansoleil and Euskaltel will be conspicuously absent from the roads Down Under, their long tenures in the pro ranks now complete. Meanwhile, Europcar has been elevated to the top level, guaranteeing that we’ll be seeing a lot more of the French squad. After so many dull days waiting for the next event, the ever popular Tour Down Under will finally offer the year’s first in-competition look at the 2014 WorldTour peloton.

The six-stage race has gotten hillier and hillier over the past few years; there was a time when star sprinter Andre Greipel could win the General Classification (he did, twice), but that time is probably past. While there are no real mountains along the road to the finish line in Adelaide, there are several steep climbs that will force selection before the week is done.

All-rounder Roundup

With almost two months until the next race on the WorldTour calendar, the Tour Down Under is always a race full of uncertainty–it’s hard to tell who is on form this early in the season. Only a handful of competitions have been held thus far in the year, leaving little data worth utilizing for prediction. Fortunately, a number of the race’s biggest stars just engaged in a clash of Aussie Titans at the Australian National Championship title last week. The collection of high profile names didn’t disappoint: unsurprisingly, at the end of the day it was Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, and Richie Porte vying for the finish line. Gerrans, whose burst has nabbed him so many wins over his career, was easily the fastest man to the line, leaving elder statesman Cadel Evans to settle for runner-up and Porte in third. Fresh off their perfomances in Nationals, the trio of Aussie riders are all numbered among the favorites for this week’s Tour Down Under, with new champion Gerrans at the head of the line.

Even had he not just shown his current condition, Gerrans would have the make up to be considered a major contender in this race. Not only has he won it twice already, in 2006 and 2012, but the race suits him more and more these days as short, steep climbs are injected to add excitement to the contest. The former Milan-San Remo winner has explosiveness in spades, and we’re sure to see it on Corkscrew Hill in stage 3 and Old Willunga Hill in stage 5. Having demonstrated his form, Gerrans is the man to beat in his home tour, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have some of Oz’s finest pros backing him. He can rely on the likes of Daryl Impey and Simon Clarke as stellar support (or second choices if need be) when the going gets tough.

Cadel Evans, for one, won’t be going down without a fight. He still feels he has a lot left in the tank and he’ll want to use this opportunity to prove it. He may not have the punch of Gerrans, but he’s no slouch for quick speed, he’s clearly in form, and he’ll have a nice supporting cast with last year’s 5th place finisher in this event, Ben Hermans, at his side. Richie Porte, meanwhile, heads into 2014 with the loftiest ambitions of his career, setting his sights on a Grand Tour victory and hoping to claim a spot among the sport’s top stage racers. Grand Tour season is a long way off, but Porte looked good at Nationals. He doesn’t have the explosiveness or finishing move of his aforementioned compatriots, but he’s a determined contender, and he’s also quite a bit younger. Sky also has Geraint Thomas, 3rd in last year’s edition, as a second card to play, though the bumps in the road may not quite suit his skillset; still he’s a multi-talented, aggressive rider who has shown a knack for success here,and his fast finish could be vital in a race for bonus seconds. Bernie Eisel and Ian Stannard are along for support as well.

Rohan Dennis might have been another high finisher in last weeks Australian Nationals, but he caught a bit of misfortune in the run-up to the race, crashing while time trialing. The incident did not leave him seriously injured, but it did cause him a fair bit of pain from which he is still recovering. The young all-rounder from Garmin-Sharp pulled out of the champs race but has had more time to recover since then, and he showed a very versatile array of skills in 2013. Depending on how well he has healed up, Dennis could pose a major challenge to his more established countrymen in the GC competition–he was 5th in the 2012 edition when he was just 21 years old, and he’s shown serious improvement on all levels of his game since then.

However, a second round of Australian Nationals this race is not; it’s a WorldTour competition, and it draws serious world-class, international talent. There will be plenty of challengers, familiar and not-so-familiar, hungry to pick up the first big race of the year far from home. Last year’s winner Tom-Jelte Slagter will be absent from the startline, so a repeat victory is not in the cards for him. His former team Belkin sends one of its top talents to pick up the slack in Robert Gesink. An up-and-down 2013 ended on a rather high note when Gesink redeemed his lackluster Giro d’Italia with a surprise win in Quebec, a top 10 in Lombardy and another top 10 in the Tour of Beijing. He showed a greatly improved finishing kick in his late season success, and with Jack Bobridge (the 5th place finisher in last week’s Nationals) and two other Aussies as well as workhorse Stef Clement for backup, Gesink could be a force to be reckoned with.

Few teams are coming to this race as stacked as Movistar, which is probably a sentence that can apply to most of their races these days. The Tour Down Under squad, however, does not include the team’s two biggest names, Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde. Instead, the group is composed of a bevy of versatile riders hungry for a chance at glory while their more well-known teammates are elsewhere. For the rest of the year, Javier Moreno will likely ride in support of said teammates, but January in Australia is the time and place for Javier Moreno to make his mark on the WorldTour. He was runner-up and King of the Mountains in the 2013 edition and 8th the year before that, and he’ll have a powerful team backing him. I’m not sure I see him standing atop the podium, but another top 10 finish seems attainable. JJ Rojas may focus more on nabbing single stages, but it’s possible that he might aim for GC as well. Giovanni Visconti could have been another strong option in this race, but he unfortunately suffered a broken leg this weekend and will be sidelined for weeks while he recovers.

I see Jan Bakelants, riding at the head of new team Omega Pharma-Quick Step, as one of the most dangerous challengers in this race. 6th here in 2012, Bakelants really came into his own in 2013, with a stage win in the Tour de France, top 10s in the Eneco Tour and the Tour of Beijing, and a one day victory at the Grand Prix de Wallonie. In all of these events, he earned his success with strong climbing ability and a fast finish, which, as has already been mentioned, will be necessary to challenge for GC here. Also boasting top-shelf climbing punch and a fast finish, and also coming off a career year, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi is the other non-Aussie I consider among the most likely contenders in this race. Ulissi does have a habit of disappearing in big races (late last year he was a non-factor through most of the Vuelta, in the World Championship Road Race, and in Il Lombardia, while claiming a string of fantastic victories in one-day Italian races during the very same time period), but he’s shown elite talent. Having proven himself as a force to be reckoned with last year, he’ll be the guy for Lampre in this and many other races this year, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the spotlight.

Astana is another team full of talented riders who will have a rare chance to be more than domestiques. Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, Francesco Gavazzi, and Lieuwe Westra are all capable contenders. Gasparotto in particular has quietly established himself as a rider to watch on the punchy climbs, and Grivko finished last year with high placings in the World Championship Race and the Eneco Tour thanks to a similar skillset. Only Orica-GreenEdge can rival Astana in terms of the number of viable GC contenders at the Tour Down Under.

To name a few others: Saxo-Tinkoff’s Rory Sutherland, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts, Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke, AG2R’s Maxime Bouet, Cannondale’s up-and-comer from New Zealand George Bennett, FDJ’s Jussi Veikkanen and Kenny Elissonde, and, of course, Trek’s Frank Schleck, back to racing after his doping suspension–there’s no telling what sort of form he’s on, but the podium finisher in the 2011 Tour de France is obviously a strong candidate for GC if he has his legs. That’s the story behind most of these predictions really; fortunately, the wait to find out what state our contenders are in is almost over.

Stagehunters

The opportunities for sprinters may be lessened in recent editions of this race, but that hasn’t stopped two of the world’s big three pure sprinters from making the trip. Andre Greipel has had a great deal of success in his many trips Down Under, and his always-effective leadout train is with him, but they’ll have their hands full against Marcel Kittel and his own supporting cast. Stages 4 and 6, with flat run-ins to the finish, are the most likely to see their battle royale.

Other fast men hoping to pick up stage wins include Elia Viviani of Cannondale, the JJs Rojas and Lobato of Movistar, the Van Poppel brothers on their new team, Trek Factory Racing, Michael Matthews and Matthew Goss of Orica-GreenEdge, Andrew Fenn and Mark Renshaw of OPQS, Garmin-Sharp’s Steele von Hoff, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Caleb Ewan of UniSA-Australia, to name a few. Given the importance of explosiveness in the Tour Down Under GC battle, many of those mentioned as ochre jersey hopefuls could just as easily vie for stage victories.

Uncertainty is the name of the game in the Santos Tour Down Under, guaranteeing surprises every year (Tom-Jelte Slagter was certainly a surprise winner in 2013). As the curtain opens on the 2014 season, we can expect the unexpected in Australia–while the many big names in attendance are sure to deliver fireworks, this race tends to bring new names to the fore as well, and what better way to start a new year than with new faces looking to make their mark at the sport’s highest level.

VeloHuman Predictions

General Classification Winner

Simon Gerrans

GC Podium

Richie Porte, Jan Bakelants

GC Top 10

Diego Ulissi, Cadel Evans, Javier Moreno, Robert Gesink, Enrico Gasparotto, Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas

-Dane Cash

Photos by Daniel Lang and Anthony Cramp.

January 19, 2014