Episode 44: Giro d’Italia 2016 Show, Part III
Just six stages remain in the 2016 Giro d’Italia. The Recon Ride takes a look at where the race stands and what to expect as things near a conclusion in Italy.
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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the many surprises that this Giro d’Italia has delivered so far and try to predict what will go down in the final week of the race.
Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.
10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.
Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.
Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.
Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.
So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.
Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.
Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.
1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves
It’s been one stagehunter-focused day after another at the Giro d’Italia so far, but that changes Saturday in Stage 14, a day that should provide a critical GC showdown.
The profile speaks for itself. The six categorized climbs are hard and relentless, with plenty of tricky descending thrown in for good measure.
Of particular note is the first ascent. The Cat. 1 Passo Pordoi is officially only 9.25km at 6.9%, but the peloton must climb for over 60km to even get to that point. It’s essentially a 70km climb with a gradient of a little under 3%—and that’s just to kick off the action.
After a few more tough climbs comes the Passo Giau, nearly 10km at over 9%. That’s steep enough to spur plenty of GC action. The Cat. 2 that follows is no joke either, and then comes a descent into the finale, where a short but very steep uncategorized ascent leads into a gentler uphill finish.
I expect the General Classification to blow apart on this stage. It’s going to find riders out, and the gaps to any stragglers could be huge. That said, the stage doesn’t finish atop a mountain, which could give a small group a chance to come home together.
The breakaway has a chance on this hard-to-control day, but I don’t see any one long-range specialist as a big favorite. I do see two key names among the pink jersey hopefuls, however, so I’ll start there.
To me, this stage has Vincenzo Nibali written all over it. He isn’t just the best climber in the race (when at peak form at least), he’s also among the best descenders. That will be hugely important on a stage with so many downhill sections to navigate. The race is still more open than most people would have expected but I know, so it’s time for Nibali to take control of the GC, and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.
Alejandro Valverde could give him a run for his money. The Spaniard is also a great descender, and he has Nibali beat in a sprint if they both come to the line together. Morever, Movistar has looked very impressive in this race. They can put a lot of pressure on with Andrey Amador leading the race and Valverde lurking, and they have several riders who can jump into the breakaway to provide support in the finale as well.
Esteban Chaves and Steven Kruijswijk have both been climbing very well and could be involved here as well. Ilnur Zakarin could stand to improve as a descender but he’s so good when he’s in form that he can’t be overlooked either. Rafal Majka has been quiet so far in the race but I think he could be very dangerous in this stage too.
It’s hard to say who might get involved if this is a day for the breakaway, especially since many of the top picks just spent a tough day out front in Stage 13. Giovanni Visconti and Mikel Nieve are both candidates for success here. So is Damiano Cunego. Stefano Pirazzi has looked okay so far in the Giro but his Bardiani-CSF teammate Giulio Ciccone may be a better bet.
Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Sebastian Henao are others with long-range potential in Stage 14.
1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves
Stage 13 is a tough one, a day that should shake up the GC a bit even if the finale is flat. The double pairing of Cat. 1 and Cat. 2 climbs probably won’t win anyone the Giro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see major selection going over the last two ascents.
With two critically important, challenging stages to follow Stage 13, there is a chance the GC team will keep the powder dry Friday, which would give the breakaway a real shot on this profile. I’d say it’s about 50/50, but if the stage does come down to the GC contenders, I see one rider as the clear favorite: Alejandro Valverde. The versatile Spaniard should be in the mix at the head of affairs in the finale, getting into the wheels of his rivals, and if he’s in the lead group battling for the stage win, it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a sprint.
Vincenzo Nibali, with his excellent descending skills, and Rigoberto Urán, surprisingly quick in a flat finish, are other GC names to watch.
Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, and Alessandro De Marchi headline the list of riders whose options for victory include a long-range move. We haven’t seen that much from De Marchi yet, but in peak form I like him better for this stage than even Ulissi or Wellens.
Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi, Carlos Betancur, and perhaps even Stage 10 winner Giulio Ciccone are others on the list of candidates for long-distance success.
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Tim Wellens | 3. Diego Ulissi
I hate to say it, but Stage 11 of the 2016 Giro d’Italia will likely be very boring for the first 200 kilometers. Fortunately, the finale looks quite interesting. After the peloton traverses pancake-flat roads for more than four hours, they’ll hit a lumpy final 30km that could spring attacks.
The short but steep Cat. 4 crested at kilometer 207, just under 3km at almost 8%, will almost certainly inspire a few aggressors. It will also put pressure on the sprinters. From the top it’s a steep descent into a few more rollers, with a key uncategorized climb of around 1.5km at 6% inside the final 5km. Said climb includes a bit of cobblestones, and it is followed by a descent. The road only flattens out for the final kilometer, which won’t really give anyone who gets dropped on the uphill time to get back into position.
The early breakaway has a shot at this stage if the sprinters teams don’t get organized—I’d expect the day’s move to get a big gap early on in the day. However, if the bunch decides to chase, it shouldn’t be too hard to close down the gap. My first inclination is that this stage will end in a reduced sprint.
Sonny Cobrelli is a great candidate for Stage 11, either from the break or the bunch, given his impressive finishing kick and his ability to handle short climbs. If he’s in the group fighting it out for the win at the end of the day, I expect a lot from the Italian.
The same is true of Diego Ulissi. He prefers uphill sprints, but he’s quite speedy even in a flat finish like this one. Tim Wellens is another rider to watch with these late climbs, whether he gets in the early move or decides to stick with the pack.
André Greipel can’t be counted out for a potential sprint finish. He’s very strong right now, and he has improved a great deal on tougher profiles in recent years. Arnaud Démare may be a better pick for the stage, however, as he seems a bit more likely to stay well-positioned over the late climbs. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo.
To me, the biggest threat for a sprint outside of Colbrelli is Alejandro Valverde. It’ll be touch and go whether the purer sprinters can survive the stage, but Valverde should be right there in the mix if it comes down to the peloton. Matteo Trentin, Enrico Battaglin, Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch on Stage 11.
1. Sonny Colbrelli | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. André Greipel
The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.
The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.
A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.
Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.
Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.
Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.
1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin