Tag: Tour of Italy

Giro d’Italia 2015 Preview

The Giro d’Italia kicks of the first three weeks of Grand Tour season this weekend. Last year’s winner Nairo Quintana won’t be at the startline, but the hottest rider of the spring, the best GC rider in recent history and last year’s runner-up will be, along with a host of other big talents. Every one of the major jerseys in the race (pink, red, blue, and white) will face fierce competition from a number of candidates—as Grand Tours go, things are pretty open for the taking in the 2015 Giro d’Italia, and that should make it even more worth watching. And more worth checking out pre-race content too, like the most recent Recon Ride pre-race podcast…

The Route

This year’s Giro route is a balanced one, with six or seven days that favor the sprinters (depending on how optimistic you are about the versatility of some of the quick men), about as many days for the GC types, several intermediate stages, a team time trial, and an individual time trial. It’s the sort of parcours that will require a complete set of skills to make it through with success.

The TTT kicks things off—at 17.6 kilometers it won’t open up massive gaps but it will give a few teams a not-insignificant advantage in the fight for the pink jersey. The sprinters and puncheurs, and the craftier aggressors will have their opportunities in the opening week of flat or rolling stages, though a small summit finish on Stage 5 will probably see at least a few GC hopefuls caught unprepared. Stage 8 is another potential GC day, with a breakaway friendly Stage 9 and then a rest day to follow. Stages 10 through 13 will be prime targets for the stagehunters as the GC types prepare for a critical week starting with a very long (59.4km) individual time trial on Stage 14. By the end of the day, there will be sizeable differences between the riders on the GC leaderboard.

But they won’t get to rest in the aftermath. Challenging mountains await on Stages 15 and 16 (the latter offers the viciously steep Mortirolo as the penultimate ascent on the day). The pink jersey hunters will catch their breath on a relatively easy Stage 17 before a difficult trio of mountain stages, culminating with a Stage 20 that will force the peloton to go up and over the incredible Colle delle Finistere.

Stage 20: Sint Vincent › Sestriere (196km) – The penultimate climb of the day will be among the hardest uphill challenges the professional peloton will face all season.

It may not have the name recognition of some other famous Giro mountains, but that won’t be much comfort to the riders climbing it’s 18.5 brutal km at a 9.2% average gradient. Stage 20 closes thing out with a sprinter-friendly day in Milan.

The GC Contenders

The trio rightfully receiving the most attention prior to the start of the race is that of Alberto Contador, Richie Porte, and Rigoberto Urán. Each is a complete rider backed by a strong team.

Contador, who has won this race in the past, looks like the top favorite. His skills are widely known. At his best, he’s almost unbeatable, and one might expect him to easily best Porte and Urán—but he’s aiming for the Giro-Tour double this season, and that may explain in part why his early-season racing has not been up to Contador standards.

Still, he’s put in okay showings all year long, hanging with the top favorites on the mountain stages of the one-weekers he’s raced, letting others be the main protagonists as he has rolled into Top 10 placings. In this race, which matters much more than Tirreno-Adriatico, expect Contador to fight harder. His form may be a bit of a question mark but his ceiling is so high it’s hard to look past him even if he’s a bit below 100%. Roman Kreuziger, Michael Rogers, and Ivan Basso (Kreuziger in particular) make for excellent lieutenants.

Richie Porte, on the other hand, has been terrific so far this year. He’s checked all the boxes in the run-up to this race, winning both on the hills and against the clock. Now all that remains is the big goal of his season. Thanks to his strong TT, Porte is best-suited to races with lots of chrono mileage, and the 59.4km ITT should be good for him. The big concern for Porte is his propensity to crack in a three-week race. As amazing has some of his one-week performances have been, he is a 30-year-old GC rider with just one Grand Tour Top 10 to his name, so often putting in a bad day in the mountains to ruin his campaigns. If he can avoid that this year (which is something that’s been said in the past) he should contend for the victory, with help from Leopold König, Mikel Nieve, and the rest of a strong Sky team.

Urán will hope to better his two straight runner-up performances. With Contador and Porte around, it won’t be easy, but if Contador is indeed lacking for form compared to Urán, for whom the Giro is the season’s main target, and if Porte does have a bad day in the high mountains, then Urán can slide into the driver’s seat with his powerful engine. And really, neither of those conditions is that unlikely, making Urán a viable contender.

Fabio Aru would probably be right up in there in the favorites conversation but he’s been sick this year and it’s hampered his prep. He’s a brilliant climber when in form, making him dangerous regardless, but the health is a question mark. The long ITT doesn’t suit him either. He’ll need all the help he can get in this race, though Astana brings a strong squad of supporters/potential alternatives with the likes of Mikel Landa, Dario Cataldo, and Diego Rosa.

Domenico Pozzovivo doesn’t have a flashy resume but he’s put in several strong performances here over the years and could be one to take advantage of the situation if the top favorites start looking at each other. He’s got an impressive uphill burst.

Former winner Ryder Hesjedal will hope to leave his mark on the 2015 edition of the race but Cannondale-Garmin teammates Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson may be even better bets. Jurgen Van Den Broeck of Lotto Soudal looked great in the Tour de Romandie. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti and possibly Ion Izagirre will hope to carry the flag in place of Nairo Quintana. Expect at least one of them to do very well. Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin will look to continue his great run; it’s pretty hard to know what to expect from the surprise Romandie winner here. Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma, Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Damiano Cunego, and Esteban Chaves are other outside candidates for GC contention.

The Stagehunters

The sprinters’ stages should be a bit more unpredictable than they were last year, when Marcel Kittel and Nacer Bouhanni dominated the conversation in succession. André Greipel is probably the fastest “on paper,” but he’s lacked consistently of late and isn’t the type to win every sprint stage in a race. Giacomo Nizzolo could finally get that Giro stage win after years of trying: his top speed is impressive. Elia Viviani transferred to Sky during the offseason and will hope to get at least a little bit of support from his team on the sprinters’ days. Luka Mezgec will benefit from Giant-Alpecin’s always strong leadout but his early season has not mirrored his impressive early 2014 campaign. Sacha Modolo is extremely fast but can run hot and cold.

Michael Matthews, who wore pink and took an amazing hilltop victory last year, will return to fight for the bumpier sprint stages with JJ Lobato, who has been great so far this year. Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Tom Boonen and Gianni Meersman, Moreno Hofland, and Nicola Ruffoni are other speedsters who could be in the mix on the days that end in fast finishes.

Watch out for the always aggressive Adam Hansen, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski (who has been great so far in 2015), the entire Bardiani-CSF team (especially Stefano Pirazzi), which will be firing off breakaway attempts at every opportunity, and punchy types like Simon Gerrans, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Philippe Gilbert on the intermediate days.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites

GC Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Richie Porte, Rigoberto Urán
Other Top Contenders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Beñat Intxausti, Fabio Aru, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Roman Kreuziger, Ilnur Zakarin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and keep an eye out for daily stage previews (the Stage 1 Preview is already up)!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tiziano L. U. Caviglia (CC).

May 8, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part I

Episode 12: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part I
The Giro d’Italia is almost here! The Recon Ride offers a boatload of pre-race analysis on the year’s first Grand Tour, with plenty of insight from a few of the riders who will be taking on the race.

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The 2015 Giro d’Italia is nearly upon us. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the major storylines ahead of the race in the first of three Giro shows, with some inside-the-peloton insight as well, thanks to interviews with Giacomo Nizzolo, Matteo Pelucchi, and Adam Hansen.

Photo by Guilio GMDB (CC).

May 6, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2014 Post-race Impressions: Rising Stars Put on a Show in Italy

Now that the dust has settled in the battle for the maglia rosa, it’s time to give some thought to what we learned from the 2014 Giro d’Italia. With several brilliant performances over the course of the three-week tour, the race offered a wealth of insight into which riders are on the rise at the sport’s top level. The dominant theme at this year’s Giro? A new generation of stars has definitely arrived.

Promising Talents Confirmed, Part 1: GC Riders

An amazing seven of the Top 10 riders in the General Classification are age 27 or younger. For every one of them, this Giro was a statement, a confirmation of the ability to take a step forward, whether from promising young all-rounder to Grand Tour Top 10 finisher, or from Grand Tour runner-up to Grand Tour winner. Many of the biggest names in the race are primed to light up the sport’s highest profile events for years to come.

Nairo Quintana did not need to prove to anyone that he was one of the world’s best climbers, but his ability to handle full team leadership and the pressure of being a top favorite for a huge race was something of an unknown. In the 2014 Giro, Quintana was Movistar’s man from Day 1, and the Spanish superteam brought a squad completely dedicated to putting the young Colombian into the pink jersey. He delivered in convincing fashion, proving that a leadership role is something he can handle without any reservations. Famous for his poker face, Quintana did not let a number of early mishaps (a poor TTT performance, crashes, and illness) get to his head or his morale. He also showed improved ability in a non-mountain time trial, and dominant form in a mountainous one, building towards a more well-rounded game that will surely position him for more success moving forward.

Rigoberto Uran may not have bettered his 2013 result, delivering a second runner-up performance in a row, but he did show a more complete skillset, including a vastly improved ability to ride against the clock. Long considered a pure climber with a decent punch, the 27-year-old blew the doors off a Stage 12 time trial that did not appear to be particularly climber-centric, and continued to show off stellar endurance with his 3rd place performance in the Stage 19 hill climb. His newfound prowess in the chrono may not have been enough to hold onto the pink jersey, but it bodes very well for his future, especially should he decide to shift his focus to the Tour de France, which typically places greater importance on the flat ITTs and the long climbs.

Fabio Aru was undoubtedly the revelation of the race. Flashes of brilliance in his young career had already put him in the spotlight as Italian cycling’s next big thing, but few expected him to deliver in so dazzling a fashion so soon. A pure climber with an aggressive streak, Aru exploded up the Montecampione on Stage 15 to put himself into contention for the podium, and then grabbed hold of it with two hands in the hill climb TT. Despite a lack of experience consistently performing at this level, he did not appear to fatigue in the final week. Just as Michele Scarponi’s career is starting to enter its twilight years, Astana suddenly has a new Grand Tour contender on their hands in Aru, who will surely light up the Giro for years to come.

Pierre Rolland bounced back from a very disappointing 2013 in a major way. After strong Tours de France in 2011 and 2012, he looked set for long-term success, but he failed to notch even a single WorldTour Top 10 in the year to follow. The 27-year-old was consistently climbing with the best in this Giro, suggesting that he is back on track for success moving forward. Rafal Majka did his 2013 performance one better with a 6th overall, despite suffering from stomach issues late in the race. He delivered a very impressive first time trial. With Alberto Contador seemingly locked in for the Tour de France for a while, Majka could shine as Tinkoff-Saxo’s Giro star for years to come.

Wilco Kelderman may not have finished on the podium or won a high profile stage, but he was another major revelation of this race. He put in a handful of Top 10s in shorter stage races in 2013 but he was consistently climbing with the very best in this Giro, and while he did fade a bit towards the end of the race, he limited his losses and still landed 7th overall, ahead of Cadel Evans. He managed all this at just 23 years old, and, in my opinion, without particularly strong team support. He still needs to develop more, but if he can continue his progression he has a very high ceiling. As an added bonus, while it won’t help him much in the Grand Tours, he has shown a newfound ability to finish very fast, as well.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski came into the race targeting a Top 10 and delivered on his goal, finishing exactly 10th. He never challenged for the overall victory, but on most of the decisive stages in the race he was able to hang with the top climbers most of the way up. His third WorldTour Top 10 this year, it’s a strong performance to continue a nice run for the Croatian, whose team is sorely in need of rising GC talent.

Sky’s Sebastian Henao may have finished the race much further down the General Classification, but he showed serious promise in this Giro. On several mountain stages, he was able to hang with the leaders for most of the way up the climbs despite generally being alone among his team while Dario Cataldo and Phil Deignan were hunting breakaway victories. Then, in Stage 19 ITT up Monte Grappa, he notched an 8th place, ahead of Cadel Evans and Wilco Kelderman. He’s only 20 years old, and riding for a team famous for their ability to develop young talent: big things are coming from Sergio’s cousin, and they could be coming soon. Wouter Poels of OPQS was another strong performer whose final position in GC did not reflect his performance in the race. He was constantly at the side of team leader Rigoberto Uran even on the tough climbs, riding uphill so impressively that he managed to hang on in the GC Top 10 all the way up through Stage 15. He also landed 6th in the first ITT. It’s been an excellent year for the young Poels, who notched a stage win at Pais Vasco with a brilliant escape from GC rivals on a tough climb in Stage 4 of that race. Poels is establishing himself as yet another all-rounder talent for a team looking to expand on their already dominant position in the one day races and sprints.

Promising Talents Confirmed, Part 2: Stagehunters

Of the six stages that ended in a bunch sprint in the 2014 Giro d’Italia, six were won by riders aged 26 or younger, and it was only Marcel Kittel‘s birthday stage victory that keeps me from saying 25 or younger! The German dominated the first two bunch gallops of the race, delivering an astounding performance on Stage 3 (where he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to pip Ben Swift to the line) that will be remembered for a long time. With the Tour on the horizon, the young Kittel has made a major statement that his rivals Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely have noticed.

The departure of Marcel Kittel ostensibly left the sprints wide open for the remaining fast men, but 23-year-old Nacer Bouhanni quickly established himself as the one to beat. His scrappy, wheel-surfing style was perfect for the technical finishing circuits of the race, and he showed time and again an ability to put himself into the best position for the final gallop, and then time his jump just right. FDJ’s young sprinter is obviously very fast, but he also displayed the sort of sprinting savvy necessary to actually win races consistently, which has already set up a bit of a controversy within his team, where the presence of fellow young fast man Arnaud Demare leaves things a bit crowded at that position.

Giacomo Nizzolo notched a heart-breaking four 2nd place finishes but he has much to be proud of, and more to be excited about. Nizzolo is a versatile rider who has shown serious potential in flatter one-day races: he has notched podium performances in the GP Ouest France and the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’ll be disappointed to come away from this Giro without a win, but if he can maintain this level of top speed into the late summer races that favor someone with his array of skills, he can expect continued success there.

Giant-Shimano’s 25-year-old Luka Mezgec picked up a stage win on the final day of the Giro to finish off an admirable job of filling in for Marcel Kittel. Mezgec has been on fire this year, dominating the sprints in the Volta a Catalunya, and he gives his team yet another option in the bunch finishes behind Kittel and John Degenkolb.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge showed in last year’s Vuelta a Espana that he deserves to be considered a top-shelf sprinter, but his Giro performance showed the terrific depth to his game. He was already known as a versatile fast finisher, the sort of rider who was particularly dangerous when hills reduced the bunch before a final gallop, but his week in the pink jersey displayed a whole new level of versatility. He capped it off with a stage win atop a Category 2 climb. He was forced to abandon midway through the race, but now looks set to head to the Tour de France, where he will hope to mount a challenge to the likes of Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb on the bumpier days.

Elia Viviani got off to a fine start, with a trio of Top 5s in the first three sprint stages, but he was unable to come up with anything after that. Crashes did not help. As the bookies’ favorite to win the points jersey, Viviani was one of the surprise disappointments of the race, but weather-caused carnage may have played a role, and he’ll hope to prove that that was the case in his next few races.

Stepping away from the bunch sprints, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi was an early star of the race, delivering a powerful uphill assault on his way to victory on Stage 5 and then charging up a steeper gradient to win Stage 8 atop the Category 1 Montecopiolo. After a disappointing Ardennes campaign, Ulissi was head and shoulders above the competition in the fast uphill finishes in this race. In my mind, he’s ascended to the very top echelon of riders in that specialty, and even though he was unable to make much happen in the classics this year, I expect to see him launching himself to success in races like La Fleche Wallonne very soon. The punchy skillset wasn’t the only ability he put on display in this race, however. Ulissi also delivered one of the most shocking performances in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 12, where he notched 2nd place in a long, not particularly hilly time trial. He had picked up strong results here and there in mountain climb chronos in his young career, but this was something new entirely. Ulissi left a number of TT specialists in his wake and was only bested by an otherworldly Rigoberto Uran, suggesting that while his near future may focus on the one-day races and hillier days in stage races, he may have real GC style talent under the hood.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo was the other uphill-charging stagehunter to take a massive step forward in this race. His Tour de Langkawi win in 2013 put him on the map and caught the eye of plenty of observers, but he has come into his own for a WorldTour squad here in 2014. He won a pair of stages in the Tour de San Luis at the beginning of the year, and then climbed his way to 5th at Tirreno-Adriatico, hinting that bigger successes were right around the corner. He did not disappoint in the Giro d’Italia, earning the King of the Mountains jersey and a stage win with his aggressive style and his considerable uphill punch. He was always on the lookout for opportunities to attack, and it served him well. His Stage 18 victory was particularly impressive: he put in a ton of effort racking up KOM points early in the day but still managed to have enough in the tank to outclimb his breakaway companions on the final climb. Now with a top-level team to help him continue to develop as a rider, 25-year-old Arredondo is likely to continue to rise as a climbing star.

Lotto Belisol’s 23-year-old Tim Wellens was another very impressive rider in this race. He was unable to come away with a win, but notched a pair of great 2nd place performances as well as a 9th place in the uphill ITT. He was 3rd in the overall King of the Mountains competition thanks to his aggressive pursuit of breakaway success. He may not have picked up the result he wanted, but he put a ton of ability on display and can no longer be considered “under-the-radar.” Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte also picked up a pair of 2nd places, upping his total to four in the Giro. He’s an uphill specialist with a sharp eye for opportunities to attack; riding for a Pro Continental squad, he doesn’t get as many chances to shine on the biggest stage as he probably should, but he’s making his mark when he can.

Crashes Cloud the Issue for Others

Even as a sizeable contingent of up-and-coming stars made massive strides, a number of other riders saw their bids for glory fall apart on messy, rain-soaked roads, robbing us of an opportunity to see how they might have fared under more favorable conditions. Dan Martin hoped to deliver his first Grand Tour Top 10 in this Giro, but found himself out of the race on its very first day. He seems to be recovering well and will now refocus his season on the Tour or the Vuelta. He was in excellent shape in the Ardennes before his nasty TTT crash; if he can recapture that form, a return to success this season seems likely.

Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest name to fall victim to the slippery Italian roads. Caught up in the mess on Stage 6, Purito was forced to abandon before the Giro ever really hit any mountains. This was supposed to be a strong opportunity for him to pick up that elusive Grand Tour victory, but now he, too, will have to shift his focus, apparently to the Vuelta. Though he hasn’t ruled out the Tour de France, he could find himself in an excellent position in Spain if he does: without having the grueling mileage of another Grand Tour in his legs, he would be a strong contender for that race, which has been won by a rider without a previous GT on the year in its last three editions.

Michele Scarponi, Nicolas Roche, and Przemyslaw Niemiec were also caught up in or behind the Stage 6 carnage (along with a number of other non-GC riders) and saw their GC hopes crumble. The first two then realigned their goals rather successfully (Scarponi went into domestique mode for Aru, who finished on the podium; Roche helped Majka achieve a strong GC placing and Michael Rogers notch a pair of stage victories), but it was an unfortunate turn of events for both riders, who harbored GC aspirations. Scarponi will be 35 next year and with Nibali as the team’s big star and Aru on the rise, the future is not particularly promising. Lampre’s Niemiec was coming off a strong performance in Trentino, but did not feature much after his tumble down the General Classification. Though he was excellent in 2013, he, too, will be 35 for next year’s Giro and may see younger talent take a more prominent role.

Gearing Up for Tour Season

With the Giro wrapping up, the cycling world shifts its focus to its biggest event (and the tuneup races that lead into it). The Criterium du Dauphine and Tour de Suisse are around the corner and the Tour de France is only about a month away. A few of the stars of the Giro will make the start in their second Grand Tour, riding against the likes of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador on cycling’s biggest stage. You can expect to see their names and plenty more in the VeloHuman previews to come, so stay tuned!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Maurizio Costanzo, Maurizio Massasso, Sean Rowe, and nuestrociclismo.com.

June 2, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Gemona del Friuli > Trieste – 172 km

Just like that, the final stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia is here. It’s been an eventful ride, and not without controversy, but it all comes to a close at the Trieste finish line. It’s a huge accomplishment to finish a Grand Tour, and the fans will line the road to voice their admiration as the peloton bids farewell. The fast men have braved several grueling climbs in the past few days (including the brutal Monte Zoncolan conquered by Michael Rogers on Stage 20) to reach this last contest.

The Stage 21 course is pretty straightforward. The riders will traverse a little over 114 kilometers of mostly flat roads to reach Trieste, where the stage and the 2014 Giro d’Italia will finish after eight laps of a 7.15 km city circuit. Each lap involves both a small climb of a little less than a kilometer at an average gradient a bit over 4%, and then a quick but somewhat technical descent. The final kilometer includes an early left hook, but from there it’s a mostly straightforward run to the line, with a gentle rightward curve in the final 500 meters.

While there are a few bumps along the journey, it’s hard to see the sprinters letting this one get away from them. The Giro’s final stage is a big prize, and after the initial period of riding at a parade pace is over, the sprint trains are going to ramp up the speed to shut down anyone with dreams of getting ahead for a solo victory. Anything other than a bunch gallop among the heavyweight fast men will be a shock.

It’s been a while since the sprinters had the spotlight, but little has changed in the predictive pecking order. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, three times a stage winner already and wearer of the red points jersey, is the rider to beat. At the beginning of this race, it seemed that he might abandon in the mountains, but when Marcel Kittel exited the race early and left the sprints open to Bouhanni, the young French star found himself in the driver’s seat for the points jersey very quickly. He resolved to survive the mountains, and survive he did. Now, he’s got an excellent opportunity to pick up win number four. His rivals will have to step up their game if they want to beat Bouhanni; he has already proven himself best in the sprints in this Giro d’Italia.

Giacomo Nizzolo, three time runner-up to Bouhanni, may have his best opportunity to finally nab a win here in Stage 21. There are twists and turns late in the circuit, but the final 500 meters only involve a slight rightward pull, which should allow the sprinters to reach some high speeds. Nizzolo has struggled a bit with positioning and timing in this Giro’s sprint stages, but for once the last several hundred meters will set up a pretty straightforward gallop to the line. This is his last chance to defeat Bouhanni, so I expect that he’ll hit an impressive velocity on this finishing straight.

Cannondale’s Elia Viviani has excellent top-speed, and while he and his squad have disappointed in this race, I think they have a nice chance to get it right in this finale, which is relatively uncomplicated compared to some of the technical circuits they faced early in the Giro. Cannondale doesn’t have a GC rider to worry about, and they haven’t picked up a single stage in the race: they are going to go all out to get Viviani into position here.

Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec should be in the mix. A strong GSH leadout will position him well to take on the other fast men. Sky’s Ben Swift should be there as well, fighting for this last chance to bring home a victory for a team that has had so many near misses but no wins in the Giro. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar are strong outsiders. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin will hope to pick up one more victory for his very successful squad. Movistar’s Francisco Ventoso might even give it a go, as his duty protecting Nairo Quintana is finally coming to an end.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Elia Viviani

It’s been a blast previewing every stage in this race! I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have. If you don’t already, follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and stay tuned for previews of the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France (with individual previews of all 21 stages), along with plenty of other great content over the next few weeks.

May 31, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Maniago > Monte Zoncolan – 167 km

After the Monte Grappa ITT that solidified Nairo Quintana’s hold on the pink jersey, only one GC-relevant stage remains in the 2014 Giro d’Italia. By this point, we’ve seen who is climbing on top form and who is struggling, but the race isn’t over just yet; everyone is vulnerable to a bad day here and there, and Stage 20 is not going to be forgiving.

The penultimate stage of the Giro is 167 kilometers in length. The first half is mostly flat, but then it starts to steadily rise upward into the Passo del Pura, a Category 1, 11.3 kilometer climb with an average gradient of 7.7%. Next comes the Category 2 Sella Razzo, 15.9 km at 5.2%. From there it’s a fast descent to the final mountain challenge of the 2014 Giro d’Italia: Monte Zoncolan.

The Giro d’Italia is full of brutal climbs, but the Monte Zoncolan is a different sort of challenge. It’s less than half the length of the Stelvio or the Val Martello, and does not reach the same dizzying heights. What makes the Zoncolan so vicious is its exceptional steepness. For 10.1 kilometers, the riders must brave an average gradient of 11.9%, and the average does not even tell the full story. The midsection of the ascent jumps up over 15% for a few kilometers, with sections in the 20% range. At gradients this extreme, there is simply nowhere to hide. Even a strong team cannot offer much help; there is not much benefit to be gained from sitting on a lieutenant’s wheel when everyone is going up this slowly.

As the last opportunity for the GC contenders to make any sort of moves up the leaderboard, Stage 20 will likely see the sort of fireworks from the big guns that will put any morning breakaway under pressure. Still, riders could decide to save up for the final push up the Zoncolan, allowing opportunists to get away on the earlier slopes, making it at least a possibility that a long distance attacker could take the day.

I think it is slightly more likely that the battle for stage honors comes down to the GC men and those who decide to stick with them, so I’ll name the favorites among the overall leaders first. Heavier diesel engines that prefer climb with steady teammate support are not going to enjoy this gradient. This stage is going to go to an ultra-lightweight, uphill charger. Nairo Quintana does not need to do anything else to prove that he’s the best climber in the race, so he is the most obvious candidate for the title of “favorite.” His performance in the Monte Grappa ITT was simply amazing, and the wicked gradients of Monte Zoncolan should be yet another perfect setting for the pink jersey wearer to put his talents on display.

Fabio Aru has shown on multiple occasions that he deserves to be considered the second best climber in the race. He was stellar in the Monte Grappa time trial, behind only Quintana, and he’s already taken a stage in this race. What’s more, he’ll be extra motivated knowing that 2nd overall on GC is within his grasp. He’s going to be on the lookout for the right opportunity to make a move on this climb, and there aren’t many riders who will be able to catch him.

Battling illness, Domenico Pozzovivo has not been at his best in this Giro. This would have been an excellent stage for his talents, but it’s hard to tip him as a favorite over Quintana or Aru right now. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland has an outside shot here but he is a marked man now that he’s in the Top 5 on GC, and he won’t be allowed to get up the road without a fight. Rigoberto Uran should be able to survive without huge time gaps but winning on these gradients seems unlikely; he’ll be more focused on protecting his 2nd overall on GC from Fabio Aru. Rafal Majka‘s podium hopes have been hit hard by stomach issues, and this is an unforgiving climb that could see him continue to struggle unless he recovers overnight. Cadel Evans, Wilco Kelderman, and Ryder Hesjedal could find themselves holding on for dear life.

I have a few favorites among the non-GC riders as well, climbers who could be allowed to get up the road, either in the day’s breakaway or with a late attack from the bunch on Monte Zoncolan. Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte is, in my opinion, the member of this group with the best chances. He’s now a four-time 2nd place stage finisher in the Giro d’Italia, clearly capable of mixing it up with the best, but always just a hair shy of success. Unlike most of the other top climbers in the race, he did not expend a lot of energy in the Stage 19 time trial. He’ll be very motivated to pick up that elusive win here on the last summit finish of the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo now has his stage win, and his KOM jersey is practically in the bag, but he could look for more glory on the famous Monte Zoncolan. Franco Pellizotti rode very well up the Monte Grappa and was also strong from the breakaway on the stage prior, suggesting excellent form at the moment. Androni Giacotolli is winless in this Giro d’Italia, and Pellizotti is their best chance at coming away from the race with a result. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is another very strong climber on a team that needs to get something out of this Giro. Sky’ s Dario Cataldo and the very surprising Sebastian Henao and Neri Sottoli’s Edoardo Zardini also fit this description.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Check back for the preview of the last stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia after the Stage 20 finale atop Monte Zoncalan. Also, remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

With the Giro coming to a close this weekend, now seems like a good time to point out that VeloHuman will be previewing the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, every stage of the Tour de France, so make sure you come back soon!

May 30, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19 (ITT): Bassano del Grappa > Cima Grappa (Crespano del Grappa) – 26.8 km

It isn’t really a surprise that most of the maglia rosa hunters took a measured approach to Stage 18 (which went to Julian Arredondo from the breakaway) with something as important as Friday’s ITT on the horizon. Only three stages remain in this Giro d’Italia, and only two of them are likely to have any effect on the overall outcome: it’s all down to the wire in the first Grand Tour of the year, and Stage 19 will play a huge part in the final GC standings.

The 26.8 kilometer individual time trial that awaits is not your average chrono. It is dominated by a Category 1 climb that kicks off around 7.5 kilometers into the stage. Hill climb TTs are not uncommon, but ones that combine gradients this high with such grueling length are rare: the Monte Grappa climb is a beast, 19.3 kilometers long at an average of 8%, with a few very steep sections near the top, including one that touches 14%. It’s about as long and, on average, about as steep as the Montecampione climb that launched Fabio Aru to victory in the Giro’s fifteenth stage. Unlike the summit finishes that have preceded it, however, this race against the clock won’t allow riders to bunch up and ride together along the lower slopes, conserving energy for late attacks. Each rider must face this challenge on his own.

This is a mountain test that will reward the best climbers in the race, especially those who combine lightweight frames with good endurance. Most of the riders generally considered time trialing specialists will not have a chance; the GC men are the likeliest contenders. Nairo Quintana is the heavy favorite. He’s the best climber here, a featherlight who excels at going uphill all by himself for extended periods of time. He’s good enough in a standard time trial, but on a stage like this, he is going to excel. Anything less than a win on Stage 19 will be a disappointment for the Movistar rider.

Rigoberto Uran dominated the Giro’s first time trial, but this will be a very different test. He’s been climbing well throughout the race and he obviously has the engine to produce a high wattage for quite a while. I imagine that he’ll be able to strengthen his hold on a podium position with this ride, but picking up time on Quintana will be a big ask.

Domenico Pozzovivo is my third favorite. Illness has slowed him down late in this race, which is unfortunate, because he had planned to be more aggressive in this last week. Still, he’s looked good in the past two tough mountain finishes, and he’s shown off some seriously improved chrono chops recently. He was decent in the first ITT of the race, but a hill climb like this suits him very well.

I expect success from Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka in Stage 19. He was just a hair better than Uran in the mountain ITT in last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’s extremely motivated to fight for the podium. I’m not sure if the vicious gradients of the Monte Zoncolan will suit him compared to his rivals, so this could be his best shot.

Wilco Kelderman is a stronger time trialist than most of his GC rivals on a flatter course, but that advantage will fade on these slopes; obviously he’s still an excellent climber, so a strong result is likely, but in terms of gaining time on GC I think he’d prefer a profile that doesn’t suit the other contenders as well. Fellow 23-year-old Fabio Aru, on the other hand, may be something of an unknown in the time trial, but if there were ever an ITT for the climbing star to shine in, this is it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing wonderfully, but his affinity for uphill attacks does not necessarily translate that well in a chrono; he has not excelled in time trials, even in the hillier ones, in his career. BMC’s Cadel Evans is fading fast as the Giro gets harder and harder and I think he will struggle to limit his losses here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal lost some time in Stage 18 and will be hoping for a rebound. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski does not have a good track record in the ITT but he’s on very strong form at the moment and this will be an excellent opportunity for the climber to get a rare decent result against the clock.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo, the OPQS trio of Thomas de Gendt, Wouter Poels, and the very surprising Gianluca Brambilla, Androni’s Franco Pellizotti, the Tinkoff-Saxo pair of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, and Trek’s Julian Arredondo (there are KOM points up for grabs) are probably the best non-GC candidates for stage success here but it would be a pretty big surprise to see anyone who isn’t hunting the maglia rosa take the day.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Saturday’s finish atop Monte Zoncolan will be a thriller, so check back for the preview after the last rider crosses the line in the Stage 18 ITT. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2014