Tag: Tour of Spain

Stage 16: Alcañiz › Peñíscola – 156.4km

After a zany mountain stage Sunday, the GC contenders should get a chance to take it easy in Stage 16. After 90km mostly uphill kilometers punctuated by a single Cat. 3, the road descends toward the Mediterranean coast and a flat final 15km. The topography will have the sprinters excited to finally be in the spotlight again after several straight days of hills and mountains.

Barring a serious dropping of the ball (though that is entirely possible), the stage battle will come down to a bunch kick. Gianni Meersman has been the most successful sprinter so far in the Vuelta, and he’ll absolutely be worth watching in the finale given the form he’s shown so far in Spain. But there are a few other riders I like to challenge him given the easy parcours.

Nikias Arndt doesn’t have Meersman’s strong climbing legs, but he probably won’t need them here. This should be a day for the pure speedsters, and Arndt has a good track record in bona fide sprints against some notable riders—in peak form, he’s probably the fastest rider here. He’s had a pretty disappointing run in the Vuelta so far but this is a good opportunity to get on track.

Kristian Sbaragli should be in the mix as well. It’s been a quieter year than was expected for Sbaragli, but in this field he’s got to be among the top favorites regardless.

Jonas Van Genecthen is a bit of a late bloomer as quick men go, claiming a maiden grand tour sprint win less than a month before turning 30, but he deserves to be in the conversation after his Stage 7 win. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Daniele Bennati, Jens Keukeleire, Fabio Felline, Jempy Drucker, and Michael Schwarzmann are others to watch.

Should the sprint teams let this one get away from them, look out for the likes of Luis León Sánchez, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Thomas De Gendt to try a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Nikias Arndt | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

Stage 15: Sabiñánigo › Sallent de Gállego – 118.5km

Sunday’s stage will bring a second straight day of GC action, though the parcours is markedly different. Stage 15 is quite short at only 118.5km, and the climbs aren’t as challenging as those the bunch faced Saturday.

However, the pace will be very high given the length of the stage, and that can sometimes lead to unpredictable results. Plus, the final climb is far more challenging than the metrics (14.5km at 4.6%) suggest. For one, the ascending begins long before the official start of the climb. In fact, the final 25km or so are mostly uphill, with an average grade of over 3%. That’s a long way to be going up. On top of that, the officially rated section of the climb is not completely steady all the way up, with a few steeper sections that could launch attacks.

It’s proven quite a challenge predicting whether mountain stages at the Vuelta thus far would come down to the breakaway or the GC men, and Stage 15 is another tough one to call. Though the race will be hard to control on this profile, and though the peloton has allowed serious breakaways ride to two straight stage victories, the short distance will see a high tempo that could make a successful break hard to pull off. As such, I think the top GC men deserve favorite status, if only slightly.

As usual, I see Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana as the likeliest red jersey contenders. Given what we’ve seen all week, I’ll give Froome the slight edge on this parcours, though it’s very close.

Don’t count out the Orica duo of Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates for the win, however. The team showed off its knack for racing strategy in Stage 14, which leads me to believe in the potential for Orica to get creative having two rider so close on GC. Either one could attack to set up a later move by his teammate, making them a dangerous pair.

Samuel Sánchez and Alberto Contador are worth watching too, as both have ridden aggressively (if not entirely successfully) on the mountain stages of this Vuelta. Leopold König may have a better shot than either home favorite—he may not have quite the press in the first week, but he’s proven capable of holding his own with the heavyweights in this race.

As for potential breakaway candidates, a number of riders have established themselves as the go-to potential protagonists in a stage like this: Pello Bilbao, Mathias Frank, Ben Hermans, Gianluca Brambilla, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Latour, Luis León Sánchez, Robert Gesink, and Kenny Elissonde are all worthy of attention as long-distance threats.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 14: Urdax-Dantxarinea › Aubisque – 196.1km

Saturday’s stage offers plenty of opportunities for the GC heavyweights and stagehunters alike to make moves. After a flat first 50km, it’s a brutal run to the line, with three hard Cat. 1s en route to an hors categorie finish.

The final ascent, to Aubisque, is relatively steady, 16.5km at 7.1%, with a few steeper stretches. With that challenge to close out a day with three other tough climbs, stage 14 is all about uphill endurance.

The lumpy profile had me thinking breakaway at the start of this week, but now I’m not so sure. After the peloton gave the early break a half hour advantage in Stage 13, I can see a strong case for the well-rested GC contenders battling it out for Stage 14 honors. I’d say it’s 50/50 now.

Since there are only a few potential stage winners that really stand out among the red jersey hopefuls, I’ll start there. This climb suits the Grand Tour stars quite well, so I’m expecting a big showdown between Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome. They’re neck and neck right now, but if I had to pick one over the other for this stage going in, I suppose I’d pick Froome. If he can win on Peña Cabarga, which I think suits him less, he can win here. Of course, so can Quintana.

Speaking of Sky and Movistar, Leopold König and Alejandro Valverde, though they may be lieutenants on their respective teams, could steal the show here given how well they’ve been riding.

Esteban Chaves tried his luck in Stage 11 and it didn’t pan out, but I think he’s got another nice chance here. Alberto Contador seems likely to attack, as he’s been pretty active so far, so he’s worth watching too, though I don’t know that he’s capable of holding off a motivated Froome or Quintana.

The list of potential breakaway winners is long as usual, but I especially like Rubén Fernandez, Robert Gesink, Tejay van Garderen, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Rolland, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Darwin Atapuma, Pierre Latour, and Thomas De Gendt.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rubén Fernandez

Stage 13: Bilbao › Urdax-Dantxarinea – 213.4km

Another day in the Basque Country, another lumpy parcours. The Vuelta’s 13th stage doesn’t have quite the challenge factor that Stage 12 had, but it will still provide opportunities for the attackers. Though the fourth and final categorized climb comes 50km from the finish, there are several uncategorized ascents en route to the line that could see a few sprinters dropped and a few moves launched.

I think the most likely outcome for Stage 13 is a slightly reduced sprint after some late aggressors have been reeled in. As such, I like Gianni Meersman‘s chances. He’s made a career out of strong performances on lumpy days that end in sprints, and this is a great parcours for him.

Fabio Felline was a bit of a disappointment in Stage 12, present for the sprint, but not particularly close to pulling off the win. He’ll have a shot at redemption in Stage 13, and he’ll have the added advantage of being fully capable of jumping into any late attacks that look promising; on the other hand, I’d like to see a bit more from him in the sprints before tabbing him as a top favorite again.

Philippe Gilbert is another candidate with a shot as an attacker or as in a reduced sprint. Ditto Luis León Sánchez.

Nikias Arndt and Kristian Sbaragli are potential contenders if a big enough group gets to the finish but that could be a tough ask. It seems just as likely that a roll of the dice by Zdenek Stybar, Thomas De Gendt, Pello Bilbao, or Jan Bakelants goes the distance.

VeloHuman Stage 13

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Fabio Felline

Stage 12: Los Corrales de Buelna › Bilbao – 193.2km

The Vuelta is headed into the Basque Country, and the terrain of stage 12 fits the bill. The two early climbs will put some tiredness into the legs in the bunch, and then two trips up a late Cat. 2 should lead to some action. The early breakers have a shot today, and so does anyone who tries to get away late. At the same time, the run-in to the line is flat, which makes a good sprint important.

Taking all those things into account, I’ve got a few punchy stagehunters in mind as favorites.

Fabio Felline is the first rider on the list. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the climbs, and his sprint is a big asset. One advantage he’ll have over a number of other likely contenders is his speed even on flat roads—he’s got nice climbing legs, but he’s a fast finisher even in a traditional bunch kick.

Gianluca Brambilla has a nice finish too, though his punchy climbing style will likely be his biggest ally, possibly allowing him to get away before the finale. The same is true of Luis León Sánchez.

Philippe Gilbert is definitely a rider to watch on this profile. He can win in several different scenarios, if the form is there.

Alejandro Valverde is a potential protagonist as well. He won’t be able to get into the early break, of course, but if the stage is ridden hard enough he could outsprint the rest of the big GC names at the end of the day.

Gianni Meersman is worth mentioning given his versatility—this is a tough stage but I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that he’ll survive to the line.

Pello Bilbao, Omar Fraile, Simon Yates, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, and Jan Bakelants are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Fabio Felline | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Gianluca Brambilla

Stage 11: Colunga › Peña Cabarga – 168.6km

Now that the Vuelta peloton has enjoyed a rest day, GC action will resume with a tough finishing climb in stage 11. Of course, first, the riders will take on about 160 kilometers of flat (though terrifically scenic) coastal roads.

Once they hit the climb, things get hard quite quickly. It’s a 5.6km ascent with two steeper sections and a brief respite in the middle. There’s an 18% stretch in the final kilometer.

I’d imagine a break will get away early and open up a significant advantage, but it shouldn’t be too hard for the bunch to reel in a move in the run-up to the climb, so my main favorites for Stage 11 come from the GC contenders. I especially like a few riders a little ways down the leaderboard who might get a bit of room to roam on the way up the climb, as I wouldn’t be surprised if Nairo Quintana returns to his old habit of riding (too) conservatively in a Grand Tour.

Simon Yates has been great so far this Vuelta and he’s got the punch to thrive on a short climb like this. I would expect him to get some breathing room with an attack.

To a lesser degree I see Samuel Sánchez possibly playing a similar role. He’s a long way removed from Olympic gold, but he’s still got some power in those legs. Gianlcua Brambilla has done a nice job to say in the fight for a Top 10 in the race, and I think he’s got a shot if he makes a move here as well.

All that said, the big, marquee GC contenders could very well be gunning for the stage win here, and Quintana is probably the fave among them. His teammate Alejandro Valverde has a nice skillset for the climb too, but I think he’s all in for Quintana right now so I have a hard time seeing him crossing the line ahead of the red jersey. I think Chris Froome is more likely to be in that position. In fact, I’m probably more bullish on Froome than many others—I think he does just fine even on really steep gradients, even if he likes to drop off the back of a GC group early on. Esteban Chaves and Alberto Contador are of course worth watching as well.

If it comes down to the early breakaway, the long list of stage win candidates includes Robert Gesink, Hugh Carthy, Mathias Frank, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, Tejay van Garderen, and Darwin Atapuma.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Simon Yates | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome