Stage 21: Gemona del Friuli > Trieste – 172 km
Just like that, the final stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia is here. It’s been an eventful ride, and not without controversy, but it all comes to a close at the Trieste finish line. It’s a huge accomplishment to finish a Grand Tour, and the fans will line the road to voice their admiration as the peloton bids farewell. The fast men have braved several grueling climbs in the past few days (including the brutal Monte Zoncolan conquered by Michael Rogers on Stage 20) to reach this last contest.
The Stage 21 course is pretty straightforward. The riders will traverse a little over 114 kilometers of mostly flat roads to reach Trieste, where the stage and the 2014 Giro d’Italia will finish after eight laps of a 7.15 km city circuit. Each lap involves both a small climb of a little less than a kilometer at an average gradient a bit over 4%, and then a quick but somewhat technical descent. The final kilometer includes an early left hook, but from there it’s a mostly straightforward run to the line, with a gentle rightward curve in the final 500 meters.
While there are a few bumps along the journey, it’s hard to see the sprinters letting this one get away from them. The Giro’s final stage is a big prize, and after the initial period of riding at a parade pace is over, the sprint trains are going to ramp up the speed to shut down anyone with dreams of getting ahead for a solo victory. Anything other than a bunch gallop among the heavyweight fast men will be a shock.
It’s been a while since the sprinters had the spotlight, but little has changed in the predictive pecking order. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, three times a stage winner already and wearer of the red points jersey, is the rider to beat. At the beginning of this race, it seemed that he might abandon in the mountains, but when Marcel Kittel exited the race early and left the sprints open to Bouhanni, the young French star found himself in the driver’s seat for the points jersey very quickly. He resolved to survive the mountains, and survive he did. Now, he’s got an excellent opportunity to pick up win number four. His rivals will have to step up their game if they want to beat Bouhanni; he has already proven himself best in the sprints in this Giro d’Italia.
Giacomo Nizzolo, three time runner-up to Bouhanni, may have his best opportunity to finally nab a win here in Stage 21. There are twists and turns late in the circuit, but the final 500 meters only involve a slight rightward pull, which should allow the sprinters to reach some high speeds. Nizzolo has struggled a bit with positioning and timing in this Giro’s sprint stages, but for once the last several hundred meters will set up a pretty straightforward gallop to the line. This is his last chance to defeat Bouhanni, so I expect that he’ll hit an impressive velocity on this finishing straight.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani has excellent top-speed, and while he and his squad have disappointed in this race, I think they have a nice chance to get it right in this finale, which is relatively uncomplicated compared to some of the technical circuits they faced early in the Giro. Cannondale doesn’t have a GC rider to worry about, and they haven’t picked up a single stage in the race: they are going to go all out to get Viviani into position here.
Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec should be in the mix. A strong GSH leadout will position him well to take on the other fast men. Sky’s Ben Swift should be there as well, fighting for this last chance to bring home a victory for a team that has had so many near misses but no wins in the Giro. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar are strong outsiders. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin will hope to pick up one more victory for his very successful squad. Movistar’s Francisco Ventoso might even give it a go, as his duty protecting Nairo Quintana is finally coming to an end.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Elia Viviani
It’s been a blast previewing every stage in this race! I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have. If you don’t already, follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and stay tuned for previews of the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France (with individual previews of all 21 stages), along with plenty of other great content over the next few weeks.