A World-class Race of Truth
After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.
It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.
Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.
Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.
Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.
It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.
Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Tony Martin
Podium
Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara
Top 10
Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti
-Dane Cash
Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.
