Tag: Vincenzo Nibali

The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de Romandie 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 11: Tour de Romandie 2015 Pre-race Show
The stage racers are headed to Switzerland for the Tour de Romandie, and the Recon Ride is back with another episode full of pre-race coverage.

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The Classics are done and dusted, and that means we’re getting into the heart of stage-racing season. Some of cycling’s biggest names are set to make the start in the Tour de Romandie. It’s got something for everyone, with flats, hills, mountains, a TTT, and an ITT. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm have plenty of pre-race analysis to get you ready.

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

April 26, 2015
Tour de France 2014 Post-race Impressions: Nibali Dominant, Others Ascendant

Now that the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books, there’s time to draw a few conclusions about what we’ve seen. Three weeks of racing offer enough storylines and takeaways for weeks of analysis, but I’ve distilled my impressions down to a select few major observations.

A Worthy Winner

Vincenzo Nibali did not want this race to be remembered as the Tour de France without Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, and the results he delivered in pursuit of a truly dominant performance were quite impressive. With four stage wins and several other Top 5s, a strong challenge for the polka dot jersey, and a gap of nearly eight minutes to his closest challenger, Nibali was in another universe compared to the competition in the race. It would have been nice to have seen him battling Froome and Contador, and as things stand right now, Froome is still the oddsmakers’ favorite for the 2015 Tour, but Nibali did all the right things to ensure his place in the history books as a worthy maillot jaune.

We always knew that Nibali was a strong climber (one does not win the Vuelta and Giro without elite climbing ability) but he was up for it on every type of uphill challenge on the menu in this Tour, and avoided even one bad day. What’s more, he has developed into a top-notch time trialist, landing 4th in the Stage 20 chrono. And perhaps most importantly for this race, he displayed the sort of bike handling skills and racing savvy necessary to survive three weeks of riding on often rain-soaked and occasionally cobbled roads. There is a lot to be said for his ability to emerge unscathed from a Tour that dashed the hopes of so many other riders.

A Lengthy Injury Report

Speaking of those other riders: as much as Nibali did everything in his power to make this race his own, any rational analysis of this Tour has to include mention of the health issues that plagued so many riders and generated so many headlines. Alberto Contador was on fire this year and now he may not race again in 2014, and Chris Froome looked to be rounding back into shape before his multiple fractures took him out of the Tour. It would have undoubtedly been a very different Tour de France had they been in the mix in the mountains. They weren’t the only riders who suffered race-ending health problems. Mark Cavendish left the Tour on its very first day. Rui Costa was running well in the beginning of the race, but pneumonia hampered him as the Tour went on and ultimately he abandoned his campaign for a Top 10 overall. Andrew Talansky crashed and crashed again early on in the race and was just too banged up to continue riding at the level necessary to hang with the peloton. Andy Schleck suffered a serious knee injury which has put his next several months in doubt.

Others made it to the Champs-Élysées but were noticeably lessened by ailments along the way. Among the big names in this camp were John Degenkolb, whose first several days were hampered by injury, Arnaud Demare, who battled sickness, and Richie Porte, whose tumble out of the GC Top 10 may have been partially due to a chest infection. In short, a number of big names struggled with health issues in this Tour de France. Those riders who did survive and thrive in the race are worth noting, but it’s important to view all of their successes in perspective.

New Generation of Sprinters Here to Stay

With four victories, Marcel Kittel was clearly the best “pure sprinter” in the race. We’ll never know how Mark Cavendish might have fared against the younger Kittel through three weeks of racing, but Kittel continues to assert himself as a dominant force in the top tier of fast men. This is his second straight year of four wins, but remember, he’s only 26! Alexander Kristoff, with a pair of stage wins, is planting his flag as a sprinting force as well, especially in the bunch gallops that follow long and/or rainy days. Peter Sagan is known as the rider to beat on the hilly days that end in reduced sprints, but Kristoff has carved out a niche of his own: he’s not as strong a climber as Sagan, but even flatter stages, if lengthy enough (and especially when wet) can wear out the other fast men, and it is in those scenarios that Alexander Kristoff shines brightest. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel were both in the mix on Stage 15, but Kristoff won anyway, much as he won the sprint finale of this year’s Milano-Sanremo despite the presence of Mark Cavendish.

Peter Sagan may not have won a stage in this year’s Tour, but the nine Top 5 stage finishes that put him into the green jersey are undeniably impressive. It seems likely that with a stronger team, he’ll be able to focus more on winning and less on chasing down late moves; the question of “Where will Sagan land?” will be the biggest story of transfer season.

Several other young non-winners were, nonetheless, strong performers on a number of stages as well. 22-year-old Bryan Coquard was always in the mix in the sprints, and 22-year-old Arnaud Demare and 25-year-old John Degenkolb delivered some nice results despite nagging ailments.

A French Resurgence

The 2014 Tour de France was a wonderful return to prominence for French cycling. Jean-Christophe Peraud, who has landed several impressive results in stage races in his career, put in a next-level performance to reach 2nd overall in cycling’s biggest event. He got stronger as the Tour went on, and benefitted from a top-notch team that also included 6th place finisher Romain Bardet, just 23 years old. A climbing specialist with serious talent and a high ceiling, Bardet now has a Top 10 in the Tour and in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his 2014 resume (to go with several other nice results), and he should continue to develop as an uphill force.

Thibaut Pinot finally took that step up that many expected after his 10th overall and stage victory in the 2012 Tour; a podium position in the Tour de France (ahead of Grand Tour winner Alejandro Valverde) will do wonders for his confidence. He seems to have gotten over his fear of descending, which was a major drawback to his game, but he developed into a much more well-rounded rider in other ways too, now seemingly capable of putting in a strong time trial and several straight good days in the mountains. He should only get stronger over the next few years.

The GC riders weren’t the whole story for the French revival either. Consummate breakaway specialist Blel Kadri took a very long stage win in Gerardmer, and versatile Tony Gallopin spent time in the yellow jersey and later escaped Peter Sagan and a chasing pack to win Stage 11. He took an impressive victory in San Sebastian last year and continues to prove his wide array of talents that include climbing, soloing, and sprinting.

Deserving Team Leaders

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen recovered from a prior injury to race in this Tour, and then recovered from an early crash and a single bad day in the Pyrenees to land 5th on GC when all was said and done. 2013 was a rough year for the young American, who, despite winning both the Tour of California and the USA Pro Challenge, looked to have taken a step back as a Grand Tour rider in that year’s edition of La Grand Boucle. With Cadel Evans showing signs of slowing down, however, BMC backed van Garderen completely in this year’s Tour, and by consistently hanging with with the GC Top 10 types and then delivering a very strong time trial performance in the penultimate stage, van Garderen proved that he is back on track as a GC contender. He’s still just 25.

Not far behind van Garderen on the GC leaderboard was Leopold Konig. Konig took a stage and 9th overall in the 2013 Vuelta, but 2014 hadn’t been going smoothly for the young Czech climber, who was slated for his first run at being a team leader in the Tour de France. A knee injury hampered his early season campaign and left him unable to prepare as well as he would have liked for this race. He overcame those obstacles and looked strong in the second and third week of the Tour, climbing to 9th on GC before the time trial on Stage 20. He proceeded to deliver the chrono of his life and jumped two more placings to finish 7th overall. It shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as he has been delivering impressive time trial results somewhat under the radar over the last two years, but few expected him to land 5th in the ITT. If he can continue to show that sort of abiltiy against the clock, he will be a rider to watch in Grand Tours for years to come.

Looking Ahead

The last day of the Tour de France is not the last day of the cycling season! The Clasica de San Sebastian, a one-day race with a hilly profile designed to thrill, is less than a week away, with the Tour de Pologne and Eneco Tour soon after. Stay tuned for more previews, analysis, and rider interviews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Adam Bowie, Sum_of_Marc, and Photigule.

July 28, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Pau › Hautacam – 145.5 km

After Rafal Majka’s victorious charge up the Pla d’Adet climb, only one mountain stage remains in the 2014 Tour de France. It’s another very short stage at only 145.5 kilometers, but the profile is daunting. Following a mostly flat first half with only a pair of short Cat. 3s to challenge them, the peloton will reach the foot of one of cycling’s most iconic climbs: the Col du Tourmalet. 17.1 kilometers at 7.3%, the Tourmalet is a mammoth ascent with nowhere to hide, especially after the first 5 kilometers, when things really kick upward (above 8%) and stay there for most of the remainder of the climb. The unforgiving slopes of the Tourmalet will blow the pack apart, but the summit is crested with 50 km still remaining on the stage; from there, it’s a very long, high-speed descent to the bottom of the Hautacam climb. 13.6 kilometers at a 7.8% average gradient, Hautacam has a particularly nasty midsection, with a lengthy stretch above 11%, the perfect launching pad for anyone hoping to put in one last mountain attack in this Tour de France.

Stage 18 is the final chance for the climbers to make their mark on this race. To this point, the hard mountain stages have been dominated by a select group of riders; Vincenzo Nibali and Tinkoff-Saxo have left little glory for the other uphill specialists in the Tour. Hopefully, this last opportunity for glory will provide some very exciting racing. The pack will move at a high speed on such a short stage, and the fight to get out front early will be fierce. The breakaway will have a shot at staying ahead all day, but only if it is composed of some real uphill strength; the GC contenders will most likely set a furious pace up these climbs.

The top favorite for victory on the final Hors Categorie climb of the Tour de France is the race’s best climber, Vincenzo Nibali. He already has three wins to his name, but taking a fourth victory on the last mountain stage of the Tour, and possibly even the polka dot jersey, would really accentuate his utter dominance of this race. He wants the 2014 Tour de France to be remembered as Vincenzo Nibali’s race, not as the race won by Nibali after the abandonment of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. With a flat day on the horizon and such a comfortable lead, there isn’t much reason not to go full gas on Stage 18, and if the GC men sweep up the day’s break before the Hautacam summit finish, Nibali will obviously be the one to beat for stage honors.

AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has made his mark over the last few stages as one of the only riders capable of holding Nibali’s wheel when the road goes up. He has an excellent team around him, and he’s just 8 seconds off the podium. Given his strong time trialing ability, 2nd overall may be within his reach. He will be highly motivated, and the day’s two long climbs suit him well. If the GC riders are at the head of the race as the end of the day nears, and if Peraud sees a chance at the stage win, he’s going to go for it: he has had a lot of success in the last few years, notching several high placings in big races, but he’s never actually won a race at the WorldTour level. He’s on the form of his life right now, and this could be his best chance to take that win. I also expect his teammate Romain Bardet to be aggressive on Stage 18, with the fight for the young rider’s classification so close right now. He hasn’t looked as strong as Peraud these past few days, but anything can happen on this final opportunity for the climbers to make their mark.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is Bardet’s main rival for the white jersey. He is also holding onto a very tenuous podium position at the moment. His descending woes appear to be behind him, which is important given the long descent from the summit of the Tourmalet, but he’ll need to put in a top-notch performance going uphill as well if he wants to keep his spot in the Top 3. He is in excellent shape right now and another good day seems likely. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is in a similar position: his 2nd overall is threated by a charging Jean-Christophe Peraud, and he’ll need to be at the top of his game to stay where he is on the leaderboard. He struggled on the early slopes of the Pla d’Adet climb, but recovered nicely to finish with Pinot’s group. Unlike those challenging him for his spot on the podium, Valverde has a lot of experience protecting a Top 3 overall position on the final climbs of a Grand Tour. He also has a stellar support squad. If he draws on all of that experience and all of that support, he could be in for a strong day.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen put in a much stronger performance on Stage 17 than he had on the stage prior, and with that bad day behind him he can look for another nice result here; he’s been a bit more aggressive on the climbs this year than we’ve seen in the past. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam both looked okay on the Pla d’Adet and despite being 7th and 8th overall, respectively, they could have some freedom to get up the road given the huge time gap between themselves and those higher up the leaderboard. The same is true for Leopold Konig, in 9th, who, despite having a bad day on Stage 17, has otherwise looked very impressive on the climbs in this Tour de France. In 10th but well out of contention time-wise, Pierre Rolland is nonthreatening enough that he may even be allowed into the early move again. He will be coming off a long day spent out front already, but he’s recovered from tough mountain stages a bit better than you might expect for a rider who has already taken on the Giro this year, and his aggressive style and experience will come in handy on these climbs.

The success or failure of the breakaway will depend largely on the caliber of climbers in the move. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka is one of the highest caliber climbers in the race, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll try to get out front early here. He took the stage victory and a massive collection of KOM points at the summit of the Pla d’Adet, but unfortunately for his polka dot ambitions, Vincenzo Nibali wasn’t far behind, and the race leader is still well within striking distance of the KOM jersey that Majka currently wears. The young Polish climber will need to play Stage 18 just right to keep that jersey. He could get into the break, but having already spent a long day up the road, it’s a lot to ask to go for more long-distance success here; he put in a nice performance on the Chamrousse climb with a late attack after sticking in the pack, and that will be an option on Stage 18 as well. Whatever he decides, Majka will be again be a favorite for stage honors. If Majka doesn’t go up the road, Tinkoff-Saxo may send Michael Rogers in search of a second stage win. When so many familiar breakaway protagonists tried for the long-distance strike on Stage 17, Rogers hung with the pack, and with the energy he saved there, he’s one of the few who might have a chance at winning Stage 18 from afar. Nicolas Roche, who had such a strong ride up the Pla d’Adet, is another long-range option for Tinkoff-Saxo.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez saw his KOM hopes take a huge hit on the Pla d’Adet, where it was all too clear that he’s still not at his best. However, he has shown enough ability to be considered a dangerous contender if he can get into the breakaway. Even well off his peak form, Purito’s experience alone is enough to keep him in the conversation. More than most, he knows how to win mountain stages in Grand Tours, and as hard as it will be to win this stage with a long-distance strike, Joaquim Rodriguez can’t be counted out. Yuri Trofimov is another option for Katusha.

Sky’s Mikel Nieve spent most of Stage 17 in the bunch and he could be in the hunt from the breakaway on Stage 18, with Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, and David Lopez as early move alternatives for the team. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler is another potential long-range protagonist who will be coming off a quiet day. Christophe Riblon, Brice Feillu, Jose Serpa, Chris Horner, Jurgen Van Den Broeck (now almost three minutes outside the Top 10), Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, Steven Kruijswijk, Beñat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Frank Schleck, and Haimar Zubeldia are others who might have a chance at stage glory if they launch from afar.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Jean-Christophe Peraud | 3. Rafal Majka

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 18.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 23, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens › Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet – 124.5 km

A hard first day in the Pyrenees (won by VeloHuman’s top Stage Favorite, Michael Rogers) dealt serious blows to the podium hopes of a number of riders in this race, but things won’t get any easier on Stage 17. The steak knife-esque profile throws three Category 1 climbs (the second one is particularly brutal, 13.2 km at a 7% gradient) and some tricky descents at the peloton before culiminating in an HC-rated finale, a 10.2 kilometer, 8.3% ascent to Pla d’Adet. The early slopes of this last climb are particularly harsh, with sections hovering around 10%. Overall, Stage 17 is a short one at only 124.5 kilometers, but there will be more than enough challenges on the menu to wear down even the climbing specialists.

At least in terms of stage glory, it could be another day for the breakaway. There is still one more brutal day in the Pyrenees to come, and the GC types may not be that interested in doing any chasing if a big group gets up the road. A constantly up-and-down profile and some positively serpentine roads in the second half of the day will further help the cause of those in the early move. Still, the final climb will be a very harsh test, and even if the survivors of the break have a nice gap at the foot of it, it will be a challenge holding on to the top. Whatever the scenario, an abundance of uphill power will be a prerequisite for success on Stage 17.

With three Cat. 1s and an HC-rated summit finish up for grabs, this stage will be pivotal for those hunting the polka dot jersey. Rafal Majka and Joaquim Rodriguez cannot afford to miss the breakaway. Both kept their powder dry on the very long road to Bagnères-de-Luchon, knowing that this battleground was ahead. Majka proved to be the strongest on Stage 14 and generally looks to be more on-form rider at the moment. He is a true all-round talent, with the uphill ability to handle the steep stuff, the endurance to spend the day out front, and a decent kick, too. Still, Purito is improving every day, and the irregular slope of the final climb is just the sort of challenge he enjoys when he is at his best. Should Majka and Rodriguez both be there at the end of the day, we should be in for an entertaining spectacle. Tinkoff-Saxo has an in-form Nicolas Roche and an obviously strong Michael Rogers as other long-range options, while Katusha could try to put Simon Spilak or Yuri Trofimov up the road as well.

Sky has a lot of options for an attempt at breakaway success: Mikel Nieve is a terrific climber who could attempt the long one here, with David Lopez, Vasil Kiryienka, and Geraint Thomas as nice alternatives. As much of an uphill talent as he is when he’s at his best, Richie Porte at least deserves a mention, in case he recovers from his ailments enough to give this a go. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has put in some brave long-distance efforts so far and this will be another opportunity to get out front. Lampre-Merida’s Chris Horner is free to go on the move now that Rui Costa is out of the race. It’s hard to say where he is right now in terms of form, but on peak ability he’s obviously a very dangerous rider. Teammate Jose Serpa could also try to get involved in the break, having flashed some nice form on Stage 16. Europcar had a very disappointing first day in the Pyrenees, missing out on the victory despite having two riders in the lead group on the road in the last 10 kilometers, and also seeing Pierre Rolland tumble out of the Top 10 on GC. It’s almost a certainty that they will try to get into the early move on Stage 17, with Rolland now far enough down on the overall leaderboard that he may be given some room. Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler will find this profile to be very challenging but they may give it a shot anyway. Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Trek’s Frank Schleck both lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and could also hope to get up the road to pull back into contention for the GC Top 10. Brice Feillu, Christophe Riblon, Blel Kadri, Steven Kruijswijk, Giovanni Visconti, John Gadret, and Tony Martin are other strong talents who might try to go for this one from afar.

Should the pack make the effort to reel any early attackers back in, Stage 17 will probably come down to a battle royale among the General Classification’s very best climbers on the final slope. The tough uphill tests in the middle of the day will do their damage and could see some contenders fall away, and some tricky descending could contribute to gaps as well, but even if a sizable group reaches the foot of the last climb, it will get blown apart on the vicious gradients. It’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali on a brutal finishing climb like this. He’s looked bulletproof in this race, and that’s not likely to change here. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has emerged as one of the few riders who might have a chance to engage him uphill. With his huge advantage on the leaderboard, Nibali may give Pinot a chance to get up the road towards the end of the day, and the young Frenchman is on the form of his life; he’ll jump at any opportunity to land a result. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde might also have a shot: if he can hang on at the head of affairs all the way to the top of the final climb, things do flatten out for the final 200 meters, and Valverde is the best sprinter among the top GC men.

A bit further down on the leaderboard, Leopold Konig is not going to trouble any of the top GC contenders, and he has looked particularly strong recently, hanging with the podium favorites on Stage 16. He came close to a stage win when he put in a late attack on the last climb of Stage 13, and he could try to go just that little bit further to victory here. Romain Bardet lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and he may try to claw back some seconds, but he’ll need to recover his form quickly: he did not look good on the Port de Balès. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud looks considerably stronger right now. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is one other rider to watch; at 11:12 off the lead, he’s no threat to the anyone in the Top 5 if he should decide to strike ahead for glory late on Stage 17. He appears to be a lot stronger than teammate Bauke Mollema right now.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 22, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Grenoble › Risoul – 177 km

Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.

There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.

Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.

Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.

Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.

Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3 Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2014