Tag: Vincenzo Nibali

Tour de France 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Saint-Étienne › Chamrousse – 197.5 km

After a day without any real GC implications (Alexander Kristoff won Stage 12 in a bunch sprint), the yellow jersey fight will heat up again on Stage 13. The Tour’s journey through the Vosges offered plenty of uphill challenges to give an early indication of the climbers’ pecking order, but Stage 13 serves up the first high-altitude test of the race. The 197.5 kilometer day starts with a Cat. 3 climb and then a very long section of relatively flat roads before a tough final 60 kilometers. First, the peloton must take on the Cat. 1 Col de Palaquit, 14.1 km at 6.1%. Compared to what comes next on the profile, it may not look too bad, but this is a real test in its own right that will inject some pain into the legs of even the uphill specialists. After the tough climb and a fast descent, the riders will pass Grenoble and then start the grueling final ascent to Chamrousse, an HC-rated 18.2 kilometer slog at 7.3%. The steepest sections of the climb come early on. Things start to ease up a bit right near the top, but after such a long skyward journey, any group that comes to the foot of the climb is almost certain to be blown apart before it reaches the summit.

If any strong climbers make it into the morning breakaway, they will have a chance of staying away here; with another high mountain stage on tap for Saturday, the peloton may decide to conserve some energy on Stage 13. However, there are flat run-ins to both late climbs where things are likely to get very pacey in the pack as teams try to bring their leaders into the best possible position to start the ascending, and that could start to eat away at any advantage a breakaway might have. Even if those off the front do have some breathing room when they start their uphill journey to Chamrousse, it will still be a big challenge holding the gap all the way to the top.

The Tour’s climbing stars will be the favorites for victory here. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali outclassed everyone on La Planche des Belles Filles last weekend, showing that he is the rider to beat on the steep stuff. With a terrific supporting cast in Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, and Michele Scarponi, he has the team to set a strong pace when the road goes up. There are a few potential long-distance protagonists who could take this stage from afar, but if the pack does reel in the early moves as the Chamrousse climb nears, Nibali looks to be the single likeliest victor.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was not as strong as expected in the steep finale of the Tour’s eigth stage, but he was impressive on Stage 10, rolling in 3rd behind Nibali. He may be getting a bit stronger as the race goes on, and with the uphill ability he has shown in the past, he should be able to contend on this challenging final climb. Like Nibali, he has a strong team to position him well for a vertical charge in the Stage 13 finale.

Sky’s Richie Porte faces a real test here: the long ascents should be a strength, but this is the first time he is taking on an HC-rated Tour de France climb as team leader. If he can stay calm and churn out a steady pace, he could thrive on this slope. Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas, both still within the GC Top 15, make terrific allies.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive on the climbs so far in this race, and the Stage 13 profile will allow him to put that talent on display again. He will also be pleased that there is not a whole lot of technical desceding on the docket. French compatriots Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud of AG2R are also looking very strong, and they make a nice combo for the long climbs.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has handled the uphill challenges in this race with aplomb. He has developed considerably as a climber in 2014, and this will be an opportunity to put his improved skills to the test. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema struggled with stomach issues when facing some tough climbs earlier in the race, but he should be ready for Stage 13’s challenges. Past performances suggest that he should be able to put in a decent performance on this sort of skyward slog; we’ll see if he’s at the level necessary to succeed right now.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa has been suffering from bronchitis, and this will not be a pleasant journey to the top for him. He has a strong team with Chris Horner as a great second, but it will be a lot to ask to stay at the head of affairs for 18.2 very steep kilometers. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who was so strong in the Dauphine, has looked a bit off the pace on the climbs so far, and unless he manages to find an extra gear soon, this could be a tough stage for him as well.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the best climber in a select group of riders who are, on the one hand, far enough out of GC contention that they’ll be able to make a long-distance move, and on the other, talented enough to win on these slopes. Purito came very close to success on Stage 10, even after already expending a lot of effort picking up KOM points. Staying out front over the 18.2 kilometer final ascent is a lot to ask, but Rodriguez is one of the strongest climbers in the whole race. There will be a number of KOM points on offer on Saturday’s stage as well, however, which could affect how Purito decides to play Stage 13. His teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other strong options to go on the offensive from far out.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is far enough back on GC that he could go on the attack without giving too much worry to those near the top of the leaderboard. Post-Giro d’Italia Rolland is not as dangerous as he might be were this his first Grand Tour of the year, but if the pack does not have the motivation to reel in any moves from riders that aren’t in podium contention, Rolland has a chance: he is still one of the best climbers in the Tour.

NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig fell out of GC contention early in this race, but he finished 8th on La Planche des Belles Filles (ahead of Bauke Mollema and a few other top GC men). He could get into a move off the front and put his great uphill talent on display on Stage 13. AG2R’s Christophe Riblon finally showed himself with an attempt to take Stage 10 from the breakaway, and he could look to go for a long one again here. Tinkoff-Saxo has a very dangerous trio of climbing stars in Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka, all of whom are now free to hunt stage wins from afar. Others strong-climbing candidates who could look to get out front and hold on for success include Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Mulhouse › La Planche des Belles Filles – 161.5 km

The peloton enjoyed a comparatively easy day in the ninth stage of the Tour de France, leaving the real fighting to the breakaway up the road, from which Tony Martin took a decisive victory with a long attack. That brief ceasefire in GC hostilities shouldn’t come as a surprise: the Stage 10 profile looks like a roller coaster viewed from the side. The day’s seven categorized climbs include four Cat. 1s. The final two will really hurt: the Col des Chevrères grades out at a vicious 9.5%, which will put the riders who prefer to grind out a steady tempo into a world of hurt, while the summit finish at La Planche des Belles Filles comes at the end of a 5.9 kilometer journey up a slope averaging 8.5%, with a section of 20% leading into the line. At 161.5 kilometers, it’s a short stage overall, but with so many uphill tests, the finish won’t come fast enough for the peloton.

The continuous onslaught of uphill challenges and fast descents makes this yet another good chance for a breakaway. The GC favorites will be much more concerned with each other than anyone out of contention who gets up the road, and the sprinters won’t have a chance here. Even if there is a concerted effort to pull back the break, the peloton could struggle to reel in those up front given the constant ups and downs and winding roads. However, unless the breakaway contains some serious climbing talent, it may start to falter as the day wears on, especially as the GC contenders start to ramp up the pace for the run-in to the final two brutal climbs. What’s more, the yellow jersey hunters took Stage 9 pretty easily, and a rest day awaits on Tuesday, meaning that the real powerhouses of this race will be fresh and ready to put it all on the line on Stage 10. That will further complicate things for those riders up the road. I see about a 50/50 chance for the break here. One thing’s for certain: for anyone to win this stage, a healthy dose of uphill ability will be required.

One major feature of the stage that you won’t see in the profile is the date itself: the peloton takes on Stage 10 on July 14th, Bastille Day. It’s been quite a while since a French rider won a stage of the Tour on the country’s national holiday, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. For a French pro cyclist, there are few things more desirable than a Bastille Day victory, and that means that the French riders will be extra-aggressive trying to get out front on this climb-happy profile.

As with any stage that gives a breakaway a good chance of success, it’s hard to name anyone a favorite, but at least this day of harsh climbs allows us to narrow down the list a bit to the GC contenders and those opportunists with real climbing talent. Among said opportunists, it will be interesting to see which of the uphill chargers from the Stage 9 breakaway have enough left in the tank to give it another go on Stage 10; so many of the strong climbers who are out of GC contention and who might stand out as likely agressors will indeed be coming off a long day out front. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez finally showed some form in the road to Mulhouse, picking up a handful of KOM points behind Tony Martin. If he continues to feel well, he could give it another go. Teammate Simon Spilak was with him in the Stage 9 break, and he is another rider who could be hoping to recover energy quickly to try for another long distance attempt.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin, Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Bretagne-Séché’s Brice Feillu, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Nicolas Edet (who will also be on the lookout for more mountain points), and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other strong-climbing opportunists whose participation in the early move of Stage 10 may depend on how quickly they recover from the efforts of the day prior.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon has not been very visible so far in this Tour de France, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the winner of last year’s Alpe d’Huez stage was saving his energy for another attempt to win on a momentous day. Stages like this are his specialty. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has not had the Tour he was hoping for, but this will be an opportunity for him to get something out of the race; he’s an excellent climber. Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo, Katusha’s Yuri Trofimov (far enough on the fringes of the General Classification that he’ll likely be given some freedom), Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, FDJ’s Arnold Jeannesson, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, AG2R’s Blel Kadri, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, Cofidis’s Rein Taaramae, and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck are other good long-distance candidates who will come into Stage 10 without having spent the previous day out front. It will interesting to see if any of the teams hunting the yellow jersey send any top lieutenants up the road; Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Rafal Majka, and Michael Rogers, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Lampre’s Chris Horner, and Movistar’s Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre would be big favorites if they made it into an early move.

Whoever ends up in the breakaway, they’ll have their work cut out for them staying away from the pack of GC contenders. The Tour de France has spent two days in the hilly Vosges region already, but this one is by far the most likely to shakeup the General Classification. Stage 10 is the best opportunity so far in the race for the elite climbers to get ahead, and that could make for a very fast day among the yellow jersey contenders; even if they aren’t actually focused on reeling in the riders up the road, it could very well happen anyway.

As might be rather obvious on a day with four Cat. 1 climbs and an uphill finish, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador is the favorite among the GC contenders. He is the best climber in the race, and he has an excellent team around him to put him into the best possible position to get ahead when the road goes up. If he gets away on the Col des Chevrères, with a meandering descent and another steep climb to follow, his rivals may not see him again until they get to the finish line, and for that reason he will be the day’s top favorite. It is important to note that by naming him as such, I am not saying that he is favored against the field, but given the fact that the GC contenders could very well reel in the day’s breakaway, and since it would be impossible to name any one rider as the favorite to take victory from the early move anyway, Contador is, in my mind, more likely than any other single rider to win Stage 10.

He will, however, have plenty of competition among the yellow jersey hunters. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali looked up to the challenge in the steep finish of Stage 8, though this will be a much tougher day. Furthermore, his team has spent quite a long time at the front of the pack so far in the Tour de France, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them showing signs of fatigue here. Still, Nibali appears to be very strong right now, and his position on GC will allow him to follow moves rather than having to worry too much about making them himself.

Sky’s Richie Porte put in a nice performance of his own on the uphill finish in Gérardmer, coming in only four seconds behind Nibali. These are very steep climbs he’ll be undertaking on Stage 10, but he does have a strong supporting cast, and they have not had to do too much work in this race so far. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde tends to like the steep stuff, but he was not at the same level as the likes of Contador and Nibali on Stage 8, and he’ll need to find that form fast if he wants to keep fighting for the yellow jersey with so many uphill tests on Stage 10.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot was very impressive in Gérardmer, next to cross the line after Porte. For him, the big challenge of Stage 10 may be the barrage of difficult descents. He looks to have improved both his bike handling and his general confidence, but this will put him to the test. If he can manage to stay out of trouble while going downhill, he’ll be very well positioned to strike out for glory on Bastille Day when the road goes up. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet could also be planning to attack on Stage 10. Both have looked strong, with Peraud’s form coming as a bit of a surprise after he seemed to be struggling in the Dauphine. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the later climbs, but having picked up a chunk of time on GC on the way to Mulhouse (he is now 8th overall), he won’t be given nearly the same level of freedom to get ahead anymore.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa, Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all sitting one after another in the General Classification and could try to pick up time on Stage 10 while the riders at the very top of the GC leaderboard are worrying about each other. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has looked sharp on the climbs so far and I like his chances to continue to be in the mix as this race goes on. This will be a tough day for his compatriot Andrew Talansky, who has been on the deck more often than he would have liked in these past few days, but he is known for his tenacity and this is a day that will require a healthy dose of fighting spirit.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 10, the next preview will be up on Tuesday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2014
Criterium du Dauphine 2014 and Tour de Suisse 2014 Post-race Impressions: Final Stage Fireworks as Stars Tune Up for July

Takeaways from the Criterium du Dauphine

The Dauphine was supposed to be a showdown between Tour favorites Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, but other riders decided to crash the party, offering a chance for a number of stars beyond those big names to show off impressive form. At first, it did not look like any outsiders would have a chance. Chris Froome was impeccable in Stages 1 and 2, delivering a convincing victory in the opening time trial, and nabbing another stage win on the following day. Contador was not far behind in the ITT and just moments behind Froome on the second stage. Things seemed set for a showdown between the two, especially with Nibali showing signs of weakness: Astana’s GC man could not match the constant accelerations of his two rivals on the slopes of Stage 2. The coming days had plenty of surprises in store, however. Froome’s hard crash on Stage 6 raised a cloud of uncertainty over his race, but it was only the beginning of the surprises; Andrew Talanksy shocked the cycling world when his early attack on the final stage survived the immense efforts of a group of strong chasers, giving the American the overall victory ahead of Contador. Jurgen van den Broeck was another winner out of the move, sliding into 3rd overall. Meanwhile, Chris Froome couldn’t handle the pace of the chase and fell out of the Top 10 altogether, forced to be content with his two stage victories and the points jersey.

Unfortunately, Froome’s crash makes it difficult to draw any clear conclusions about his form coming into the Tour de France. He looked unstoppable on the first two stages, but it’s hard to say whether his vulnerability in the final two days was a result of his inability to match rival Contador, or pain from his injuries. With the way he rode the first mountain test, I have to imagine that his crash had a significant impact on him in the closing stages. Regardless, what could have been a major confidence booster for Froome in what has been an otherwise rough year was instead yet another disappointment. He goes into the Tour with question marks surrounding his campaign, no longer the sterling, heavy favorite he was in 2013.

Meanwhile, Alberto Contador made a strong statement: he put in a stellar opening time trial and matched Froome in the first climbing stage, even before Froome’s crash. He was by far the strongest climber of the GC riders in the penultimate day of racing. Though he was unable to reel in Talansky’s move on Stage 8, the strength he showed in his attempt was another impressive show of the excellent shape he is in. Even more encouragingly, he was able to deliver such a strong Dauphine despite lacking support from the big names that will support his Tour bid; top lieutenants like Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche did not join him for this race. With the help of Tinkoff-Saxo’s first string, Contador will be an extremely difficult opponent in the Tour de France.

Vincenzo Nibali‘s 7th place in the final GC was not a bad performance, per se, but at no point in the race did he look the part of a Tour de France top contender. Time is running out for Nibali to find form in 2014 before his main objective.

Andrew Talanksy made the most emphatic statement of the Dauphine, and it wasn’t only due to his masterful attack in the final stage. He never would have been in contention for the overall had he not delivered strong performances throughout the race: 4th in the opening ITT, 5th in the mountainous 2nd stage, and the GC rider closest to Contador on Stage 7, Talansky was firing on all cylinders all week long, and he looks primed for another strong Tour de France (he was 10th last year). Jurgen van den Broeck can take many of the same positives away from the race: his podium position was the result of a consistent racing from the very first day of the Dauphine. He has been lacking that consistently recently. After a disappointing 2013, van den Broeck made a resounding statement to his team that he deserves another shot at the Tour GC this year.

Wilco Keldmeran followed up his 7th in the Giro with an excellent 4th at the Dauphine: carrying that level of form this far into June confirms that the 23-year-old is truly the real deal. Romain Bardet‘s 5th should offer a fair bit of consolation for his team; AG2R will be without Carlos Betancur come July’s main event. Adam Yates landed an impressive 6th; his Tour of Turkey victory and his 5th in the Tour of California were nice results, but a Top 10 in this race, one of the biggest one-week events of the year, is an undeniable confirmation of his talent.

Tejay van Garderen looked like a strong contender for the overall, but after faltering early he revealed that he had sustained a hip fracture in the Tour de Romandie; with that in mind, his 13th overall is not as disappointing. He did seem to get stronger as the race went on. Speaking of injuries and Top 15s, Leopold Konig notched an 11th place, which should give NetApp some hope that his recovery from a knee injury is coming along.

Among the stagehunters, Giant-Shimano’s Nikias Arndt took an impressive sprint win on a technical finishing circuit in the 3rd stage. It seems the Giant sprint train can do no wrong, no matter who is doing the sprinting (more on that train in the next Up-and-comer Q&A, so be sure to check back Monday). Simon Spilak was seen by many, including VH, as a potential outside contender for the overall victory, but whether due to heat or team leadership decisions, he instead spent the race hunting stage wins, and he secured one with a brave breakaway move on a hilly Stage 5. Teammate Yuri Trofimov, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Sky’s Mikel Nieve were other deserving breakaway victors.

Takeaways from the Tour de Suisse

For the second week in a row, the last stage of a major WorldTour race ended with brilliant fireworks to shake up the overall GC; again, an early attack stuck to the very end, overhauling the final leaderboard. Much like the Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse offered lots of insight into the form of some likely Tour de France protagonists, and it did it with plenty of excitement, to boot.

With his first opportunity as a Grand Tour leader approaching, Rui Costa delivered his third GC victory in the Tour de Suisse in grand style, on the back of some solid time trialing (his 3rd place in the Stage 7 chrono bettered even Fabian Cancellara) and stellar climbing, and with the help of the sharp racing mind for which he is well-known. His escapees held off a mad chase in the race’s final stage and he out-attacked all of them in the closing kilometers to take his first stage win and first overall victory in the rainbow jersey. It’s hard to know how Costa will fare in his inaugural run as his team’s featured GC rider in the Tour de France, but his performance in Switzerland makes a powerful statement about his form and his skillset, which is looking more well-rounded with every race.

Tony Martin of OPQS saw his chances at an impressive GC win slip through in fingers in the mountainous final stage, but he should still be very pleased with his trip to Switzerland. His ability to land a Top 10 in a very hilly race was impressive, and he won both time trials convincingly. That ITT success may not come as a big surprise, but Martin was not the bookies’ favorite in the first chrono due to its short length. With this form, he should be the favorite for the long time trial in the penultimate stage of the Tour de France, and he’ll also have earned trust from his team as a GC rider in chrono-heavy weeklong races to come.

Mathias Frank was a strong 2nd overall and, like Costa, his nice result was buoyed by a very impressive (and much improved) time trial skillset. That discipline is not traditionally seen as one of his strengths. This more complete game will serve him nicely in the upcoming Tour. Bauke Mollema, 3rd overall, did not time trial as well as expected in the Suisse, but he did climb at a very high level, an encouraging sign ahead of the Tour, especially after a slow start to his year.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin is an established chrono talent who has flashed climbing chops as well, and he made a nice statement in this race; he used his skill against the clock to get ahead early and held on in the mountains for 5th. At just 23, he’s one of quite a number of exciting young up-and-comers for the Dutch team… again, check back Monday for more on Giant-Shimano’s young talent! Davide Formolo of Cannnondale was decidedly the revelation of the race. The 21-year-old was 4th at the Tour of Turkey, but few could have expected him to finish this major event ahead of Roman Kreuziger. He put in a pair of decent time trials and consistently climbed with the top GC riders, good for 7th overall.

Speaking of Roman Kreuziger, his Suisse was an up-and-down affair, and in the end, he settled for 8th overall. He did not time trial particularly well, and though climbed to a 2nd place finish on Stage 8, he missed the move on Stage 9 and therefore lost a chunk of time to his other rivals. It’s a disappointment for last year’s podium finisher, but it’s nothing to scoff at, and he certainly looks strong enough to play the role of elite domestique again for Alberto Contador.

Thibaut Pinot‘s 15th overall was a disappointment, but he battled sickness in the race and was unable to give it 100%. He still managed to find himself in the Top 10 on the Stage 7 time trial, which is a strong result in that discipline for him. I don’t think he’ll be too discouraged by his race.

For many observers, Bradley Wiggins will be seen as the biggest disappointment of the Suisse. He did not crack the Top 10 in the opening ITT, lost time in the following stages, crashed, and then abandoned. Sky reported that he had a chest infection coming into the Suisse, and his crash left him with a knee injury. Whatever the reason, Wiggins was unable to have much of an impact on the event. While Wiggins has already said that he won’t be on Sky’s Tour de France squad, the team has yet to make any official statements; unfortunately his forgettable trip to Switzerland probably won’t help whatever chance he still has. Teammate Sergio Henao was another victim of misfortune, this one more grave: he was hit by a car doing recon for the Stage 7 ITT, and he is out for the foreseeable future with a broken knee.

Wilco Kelderman may have been able to land a top GC result right after the Giro d’Italia, but Cadel Evans was not up for it; he finished 11th overall in the Tour de Suisse and never seemed to be a strong challenger. Fellow former Tour winner Andy Schleck was not a GC factor but he at least finished the race. Unfortunately his brother Frank crashed hard in Stage 3 and was forced to abandon.

Peter Sagan easily took his third Tour de Suisse Points jersey. He only came away with one stage victory, but he was consistently stellar over the whole first week, finishing in the Top 6 for six days in a row, and then notching the 15th best ITT in Stage 7. He looks very sharp. Mark Cavendish of OPQS took a convincing victory in Stage 4 to put the pure sprinters on notice that he’s feeling strong as the Tour approaches. Unfortunately, he was unable to contest the following stage: he was one of several riders to hit the deck in a crash in the last few hundred meters. Sacha Modolo survived the carnage to take a victory that day, and I doubt anyone will say that it was purely a lucky break as his rivals crashed behind him: he looked extremely fast in the final moments of the stage, and he’s been close to a victory like this for a while.

Johan Esteban Chaves deserves a paragraph of his own. Orica-GreenEdge obviously has a collection of brilliant sprinters, puncheurs, and breakaway artists, but they have been looking for a top-flight climber to score victories when the road goes up. Suddenly, they are flush with climbing young talent. Adam Yates has the makings of a star, as he proved in the Dauphine, and 24-year-old Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio, who, like Yates, also flashed brilliance in the Tour of California, made another loud statement this week with a victory on the Verbier climb. To boot, he did it with a late uphill surge from the pack of GC heavyweights, besting uphill stars like Roman Kreuzgier and Bauke Mollema. The future looks bright for OGE and their young climbers.

La Grande Boucle Awaits

The Tour de France is now less than two weeks away. In the interim, national championship races will put new riders into national jerseys, and the Tour’s biggest protagonists will get in their final days of preparation before the main event. VeloHuman has plenty in store: check back soon for another entry in the Up-and-comer Q&A Series, and get ready for Tour de France previews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager and youkeys.

June 22, 2014
VeloHuman Up-and-comer Q&A Series: Astana’s Evan Huffman

Evan Huffman on the front at the Tour of Oman. | Photo: Astana Pro Team

Next up in the VH Q&A Series: 24-year-old Evan Huffman. After making a name for himself with several impressive performances (especially in time trials) in his native USA, he joined Astana last season. Since then, he has made starts in a variety of different races, not just in Europe, but also in Qatar, Oman, Turkey, and China. Now in his second year, he has learned a great deal about adjusting to the pace of WorldTour racing, speaking Italian, and plenty more.

VH: You’re in Girona now taking a bit of a break from racing, is that right?

EH: Right.

VH: What’s the first thing you do when you get back to Girona after you’ve been racing?

EH: Buy food. And I unpack everything, and just get settled back into the apartment.

VH: What is your favorite thing to eat when you finally get back home after a hard race?

EH: I eat a pretty consistent diet all the time. I have cereal for breakfast, and usually just rice and/or chicken, salad, nothing special.

VH: So that’s pretty much true leading into a race as well?

EH: I keep it pretty easy: chicken or salmon, something with a lot of rice and then either steamed vegetables or salad.

VH: Who do you train with when you are home in Girona?

EH: I train mostly alone, to be honest, but with the handful of other American guys if they’re here: Andrew Talansky, Brent Bookwalter, Ted King, those are a few guys that I’ve ridden with.

VH: Do you have many Astana teammates in Girona?

EH: Just one, Tanel Kangert, and I’ve trained with him before. But we have very different programs so he’s often not here when I am, so it’s difficult to get together.

VH: Going back in time a bit: you gave up college to pursue cycling. Obviously it worked out for you but that must have been a tough call at the time. What motivated you to make that decision? Are you glad you made it?

EH: Yeah, I’m still looking back happy, I think I made the right decision. It had as much to do with me being unhappy going to school as me wanting to pursue cycling, so it was kind of working both ways. And even if it hadn’t gone so well, I probably still wouldn’t regret it.

VH: You were putting in some big results in North America, but then you signed with Astana and even in your first year you were pretty busy. You rode Paris-Roubaix, you even went to China for the Tour of Beijing. How do you handle the transition from mostly North American races to suddenly riding all over the world, on one of the biggest teams in the sport?

EH: It’s really hard. It’s definitely a bit of a shock at first. The amount of traveling is definitely much greater and that makes it difficult to work around with the training and stuff. You’re always losing a day before and after a race. When I was riding a lot of local stuff in California and the West Coast I was just driving, so it was simpler.

VH: What’s the biggest thing that you have learned your first season?

EH: If I had to pick one thing, I guess just being flexible and trying not to get frustrated with things that are out of your control . . . because there are a lot of things that are.

Photo: Astana Pro Team

VH: Last year, you had a strong first season with a lot of racing. Early this year you had a big day at the Tour of Oman, getting into a small but strong breakaway on Stage 4. Ultimately the move was reeled in, but can you explain what it is like being off the front of the race, the atmosphere of riding in the break, and then the atmosphere when the gap starts to fall?

EH: It’s really hard to get into the break at first, sometimes more difficult than other times obviously, but it’s rarely easy. But then it’s not so bad for a while. Once you get out there and you have a couple minutes, the peloton kind of lets you go. It’s hard but you’re riding steady. You don’t have to do any real surges or fight for position. So for most of the day, it’s pretty relaxing in a lot of ways, but then once the gap starts to come down, and/or you get closer to the finish, or you start hitting some hills, then it gets much harder obviously. That’s one of the things that I’ve definitely learned more this year, just planning ahead. From the moment you get into the breakaway, thinking about how you’re going to win, not just thinking about trying to stay away as long as possible. It’s all about trying to conserve energy and going hard when you have to but not doing too much.

VH: Speaking of harder days, you raced Paris-Roubaix for the second time this year. Did it get any easier?

EH: Hm. A little bit. I think I was a little bit stronger but it’s such a hard race, very different from anything else. So much of it comes down to your experience and positioning more than just plain fitness. So I was a little bit stronger but I don’t know if I really did much better.

VH: How is your Italian? Astana is a pretty international squad: do you ever have trouble with communicating with other riders?

EH: All the time. I started to try to learn Italian pretty much immediately once I knew I was going to be on the team, with Rosetta Stone and TV shows and pretty much whatever I could pick up. I’ve learned a lot but I’m definitely not fluent. I kind of struggle to have real conversations with people, but I can understand enough that I can understand what I’m supposed to do during a race at the team meeting. I know all the cycling terminology good enough, but yeah it’s difficult. There’s at least one or two people at every race that can speak English that can translate for me if I need it but there’s still obviously a lot of people that don’t speak English so I just can’t really talk to them very easily, or vice versa, which is not ideal.

VH: Have there been any particular veteran riders on the team with whom you’ve formed a particular connection or from whom you’ve been able to learn some things?

EH: That’s one of the things that’s weird being on a team with so many riders, there are a lot of guys that you don’t see all year, except for training camp, because you just have different races, so the guys that I’ve ridden with a lot I’ve gotten in with closest . . . Jacopo Guarnieri, Dimitry Muravyev, Borut Božič, those guys, we did a lot of races in the spring and they speak good English. And they’re not afraid to tell me when I do something wrong, which is good for me.

VH: What area of your riding have you built on the most since joining Astana?

EH: I think I’ve gotten a little bit stronger overall. The biggest difference I think with racing at this level is the difference in intensity. Overall the races aren’t super fast sometimes, but when it is fast, it’s really, really fast. And so dealing with the change in pace when you’re already tired is what I’ve gotten better at, and still need to improve. Just that high intensity when you’re already fatigued later in the race.

VH: What’s next on your program for 2014?

EH: I have a bit of a break now. I think my next race will be some time in early August, either the Tour of Poland or the Eneco Tour. I’m not sure yet.

VH: What are your biggest goals for the rest of the year, either in a particular race or just generally?

EH: For the rest of the year I’m not really sure what my schedule will look like, so it’s hard to pick a race, but I want to really step up a level from where I’m at now and from where I was last year, just try to be even just a little bit better. It’s kind of hard to measure because it’s really subjective some times in races, but I kind of know what that is for me personally. So I just want to improve on where I was last year, keep getting better.

VH: Have you had a chance to ride or train much with Vincenzo Nibali to get a sense of his abilities and his form for the Tour?

EH: I’ve done a few races with him over the last couple of years. The last one was the Tour of Oman this year so that was obviously a while ago, so it doesn’t really give any insight into his form for the Tour other than what you’ve seen him do in more recent races like Romandie and the Dauphiné, but my overall impressions of him are that he’s a really nice guy and a good leader, and I think he’ll be ready for the Tour.

VH: Last question. Is there a race, maybe one you’ve ridden so far, maybe one you’ll be riding in the future, that you’d like to hone in on or hope to win?

EH: Hard to say. I’d really just want to do more races, to get experience and do everything. I want to do more long stage races, like Romandie or the Suisse, and then the next step would be a Grand Tour, and just see how it goes, and what my capability would be to focus on getting results down the road. I don’t know, I just kind of like to do everything. I’d really like to do a Grand Tour this year or next year if possible.

As the only American rider on Astana, a team based in Kazakhstan, and competing in events all over the world (not just in Europe and North America), Evan will continue to represent the USA on a very international stage. After a busy spring, Evan will likely return to racing in August.

-Dane Cash

June 16, 2014
Criterium du Dauphine 2014 Preview

As one Grand Tour ends, the run-up to another begins. The Critérium du Dauphiné (I’m hereafter dropping the accents for various Internet-friendly reasons) is one of the most important stage races of the year. It is one of two major tuneup events for July’s Tour de France (the other being the Tour de Suisse). The balanced route of the Dauphine, which includes a time trial, flat stages, hilly stages, and some difficult mountains, offers excellent preparation for the Tour. Many of the likely stars of La Grande Boucle make the start to face off against their major rivals. Bradley Wiggins won in 2012 and Chris Froome was winner in 2013; both went on to win the Tour. With such an elite field and over sixty years of history, the Dauphine is a major event in its own right.

A quick note before I dive in: I’m not previewing individual stages, but I’ll be tweeting stage picks and live analysis, so remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter.

The Route

The 2014 edition of the Criterium du Dauphine wastes no time in kicking off the GC competition, beginning with a 10.4 kilometer individual time trial. It’s a short test but it includes a Category 4 climb (800 meters at 5.5%). It’s also somewhat technical, its route meandering through winding roads along the banks of the Saône. The distance won’t open up any massive gaps, but it will establish a small early advantage for some GC riders.

Stage 2: Tarare › Pays d’Olliergues-Col du Béal (156 km) – Things turn mountainous quickly with an HC-rated climb to close out the second stage.

Stage 2 guarantees that none of those riders who got out to an early lead on Day 1 can rest on their laurels: the 156 kilometer journey sets out from Tarare and crests five categorized climbs before one final ascent to the finish atop the Hors Categorie Col du Beal. 13.6 km at 6.6%, it’s not the hardest climb in the world but it’s certain to weed out pretenders before the race even enters its third day.

Stages 3 has some bumps, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it is unlikely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 4 rides on many of the same roads as Stage 16 of last year’s Tour de France (won from the break by Rui Costa). There is a challenging climb crested a little over 10km from the finish that might see GC attacks go clear.

Stage 5 is another hilly affair with a pair of Category 2 ascents in the final 50 km. Stage 6 is mostly flat, but it gets bumpy towards the end of the day, with a vicious little climb in the final few kilometers that could prove challenging for the sprinters.

Stage 7: Ville-la-Grand › Finhaut-Emosson (160 km) – There is nowhere to hide on the final climb of the seventh stage, which has sections above 10%.

Stage 7 will pack quite a punch, challenging the riders with the Hors Categorie Col de la Forclaz (12.6 km at an 8.2% average) crested with 18 km to go, and then, after a short descent, another HC-rated climb to finish the day, 10.2 km at an 8% average, with a few extremely steep sections.

Things do not get much easier for Stage 8, which tosses in a pair of Cat. 1s to close out the day, and the Dauphine as a whole. The difficult conclusion ensures that nothing will be decided on GC until the very end of the race.

The overall route does not include any truly grueling ascents, but it is quite hilly, and the many days of ups and downs will certainly wear on the peloton, putting the climbers in the spotlight. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the line will benefit the faster finishers. This year’s race includes far fewer time trial kilometers than recent editions have, which is likely to open things up a bit after recent domination from the chrono-loving Team Sky.

The General Classification Contenders

The startlist is stacked with talent (and it is important to note that it isn’t completely settled as of this writing), but there are two clear favorites for the overall victory. The first is Sky’s Chris Froome. Even with reduced time trial mileage, Froome is likely to excel in this race, as it is a very important part of his and his team’s program. After injury derailed the first few European races of his season, Froome got back on track in a major way at the Tour de Romandie, where he outclimbed almost everyone else and then won the time trial and with it, the General Classification.

Chris Froome looks to be back in top shape after struggling with injury early in 2014.

The importance of this race to Froome’s 2014 campaign is obvious given the talent his team is sending to back his efforts: constant lieutenant Richie Porte, runner-up in last year’s race, will make the start, an elite talent at all levels who makes a viable second should his team leader suffer misfortune. Porte has had a difficult year as well, but on talent alone he has to be considered a secondary contender for the overall. Geraint Thomas is another all-round talent likely to contribute in a big way (also, watch out for him in the opening ITT). David Lopez and Mikel Nieve are two of Sky’s top mountain domestiques. The British squad is fully committed to winning the Dauphine for the fourth straight time as part of a strong statement in the run-up to Froome’s Tour defense, and with the star finally back from his ailments, it’s hard to see past Sky here.

Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo is the rider most likely to challenge the Sky juggernaut. Contador has put in some of the finest racing of his life in 2014, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and coming in 2nd in Catalunya, climbing at an otherworldly level in every mountain stage. He will have several opportunities to attack on this climber-centric parcours. Few will be able to match him if he has maintained the form he showed at the beginning of the year, though he has not raced for two months, making that a bit of a question mark. Further, in the past, Contador has not focused on this race as heavily as Sky has, and that may be the case again this year; the squad Tinkoff-Saxo sends to support him is not nearly as strong as Chris Froome’s. Chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger, for instance, will be absent, taking on the Tour de Suisse instead. At Contador’s best and most focused, that might not matter (especially with the very steep Stage 7 on the program), but there are enough concerns that Contador is the second of my two favorites rather than the first.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali is third favorite with the bookmakers in this race (just as he is in the upcoming Tour de France), but he enters the Dauphine with a number of question marks. Obviously the aggressive winner of the 2013 Giro (and runner-up of the 2013 Vuelta) is a top climber who will love the profile. He also has an excellent supporting cast. However, he has not had the 2014 that he would have hoped for, starting out very slowly and only really showing flashes of his form in the Tour de Romandie, where he still settled for 5th despite being one of the major favorites. If he has managed to build on his form and has reached that top level he is capable of, he will challenge for the victory, but that is not a given. Astana has the excellent all-rounder Jakob Fuglsang to help in the mountains or to act as an alternative if necessary. He has a knack for finding himself Top 10s even when riding for Nibali.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has had a very impressive 2014. Always a strong climber, the 27-year-old is coming into his own as a featured rider for his team, soaring to new heights on the slopes but also sporting an improved time trial. He will be the guy for Katusha at the Tour de France, making this an important opportunity for him to make a statement. With the form that won him a stage and 2nd overall in Romandie, Spilak (something of a specialist in these one-week races) is primed to challenge for the victory against the very biggest names in the sport. He’ll also have last year’s 3rd place finisher Daniel Moreno on his side. Though Moreno has just finished a grueling Grand Tour, he can’t be counted out either: Katusha needs to find some results after Purito’s rough exit from the Giro.

Tejay van Garderen was having a very strong 2014 (with a 2nd in the Tour of Oman behind Chris Froome and a stage victory and 3rd overall in Catalunya among his results) before abandoning the Tour de Romandie following a crash. He returned to the USA to recover and is now back in Europe prepping for the Tour, where he will be BMC’s sole leader for the first time. The TvG of years past may have been more of a time trial specialist, which would at first glance make this a less favorable Dauphine than he’s used to, but he was climbing at an elite level early in the year, suggesting a refocused approach. If he’s recovered completely from his crash, he should contend here, especially given recent statements that suggest he is taking this race very seriously.

Fellow American Andrew Talansky has had an okay 2014. He landed in the Top 10 in Catalunya and looked good in Romandie until a dropped chain on a tough climb ruined his chances for a strong result. Like van Garderen, Talansky seems to have focused on improving his climbing this year (possibly even at the expense of his top-notch time trial) which will be crucial in this Dauphine. He tends to perform well in short stage races, even against top talent, and he’ll have recent Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal for support.

AG2R sends a powerful 1-2 punch with Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet. Peraud was excellent in the spring, landing a string of great results capped off by a Criterium International victory. He cooled off at Romandie but with some time to return to form he should be able to play a role here. Teammate Romain Bardet is a sharp climbing with an aggressive streak. He’s looked good this year and, unlike many of the other contenders, he won’t be coming in cold, as he has just completed the Bayern Rundfahrt. The strong AG2R duo should be able to land at least one rider in the Top 10.

OPQS wunderkind Michal Kwiatkowski returns to racing after some time off. As usual, it’s hard to know what to expect. He is one of the most versatile riders in the sport and he does not have an off-switch, so it seems likely that he’ll be going 100% on every stage, but the mountains will be a challenge. He will be one of the top contenders for the opening ITT, and bonus seconds favor his fast finish, so he will at least be in the conversation. Jan Bakelants is another all-round talent who could decide to make a bid for the overall.

Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti gets a rare opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, as Tour leader Alejandro Valverde is riding the Route de Sud instead. When given these chances, Intxausti does not usually disappoint, and he was one of the strongest on the slopes in the Tour de Romandie. Igor Anton and John Gadret will offer more options on the climbs. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has struggled with a knee injury in 2014, but he returned to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt and looked strong there. At his best, he’s a top climber who shouldn’t be underestimated. Maintaining a high level of form for so long is a lot to ask of Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman but he has been nothing if not surprising in 2014, and bonus seconds favor his very fast finish. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego also has some Giro mileage in his legs, but like Kelderman, he’ll enjoy the chance to fight for bonus seconds. OGE’s young Adam Yates will hope to continue his excellent year against this top competition. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler has not produced the sort of results he tends to aim for, but it’s a good route for him. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck finally returns to racing. It’s been a very rough year for the Belgian, who has been bothered by a knee injury, but this is a very important race for him to prove that he belongs in Lotto’s Tour squad. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s duo of veteran Haimar Zubeldia and up-and-comer Bob Jungels are other outsiders.

The Stagehunters

While the Tour’s biggest GC names are making the Dauphine start in preparation for July’s big race, many of the top sprinters are conspicuously absent. The parcours may have something to do with it, as there aren’t a lot of sprinting opportunities here. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, coming off his strong Giro, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who has racked up quite a collection of wins this year, headline the list. Both excel on similar terrain, so it will be an interesting battle between the two in the flat finishes. OPQS’s Gianni Meersman, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OGE’s Leigh Howard, and Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse van Rensburg will hope to challenge them.

The list of versatile, quick finisher types who thrive on the hilly profiles is impressive. OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, Lotto’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, and OPQS’s Zdenek Stybar could battle with some of the fast-finishing GC riders (Michael Kwiatkowski especially) for the intermediate days, though they’ll have to keep an eye on solo artists like Trek’s Jens Voigt, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Belkin’s Lars Boom, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Simon Spilak
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Jakob Fuglsang

I won’t be previewing individual stages, but as usual I’ll have plenty of picks and analysis at the still relatively new @VeloHuman on Twitter! Also, be sure to come back soon, as there are plenty of big things coming at VeloHuman: previews of the Tour de Suisse and every stage of the Tour de France, as well as interviews with some fast-rising young pros! Stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager.

June 6, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 Preview

Cycling Season Heating Up

The Tours of Qatar and Oman, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad (which showed us a seemingly improved Sky Classics Squad) and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne (which serves as yet another piece of evidence that Boonen is Back) kept February interesting. Welcome to March, and the 0 to 60 feeling of going from scattered reasonably popular races to TWO simultaneous WorldTour stage races followed by a Monument classic. It’s pretty much nonstop racing from here until October. I know I’m ready for the excitement.

If you missed the recent announcement, VeloHuman is now on Twitter! Say hello if you like, and follow @VeloHuman for more news and views. And when you’re finished reading this preview, remember to come back soon for the Tirreno-Adriatico edition!

All-rounder Roundup

With only a few truly grueling climbs and no time trials, Paris-Nice projects to be a race open to more than just your typical top-shelf Grand Tour GC riders. With an abundance of downhill finishes, this year’s race to the sun should be see close General Classification, and the fight for bonus seconds will be fierce.

The list of contenders in such an open race is long. It might have logically started with last year’s winner, Richie Porte. However, in a late breaking update, reigning champion Richie Porte will not be returning to Paris-Nice. Sky reports that he will replace Chris Froome at Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Geraint Thomas, looking sharp this year, will now step up to take Porte’s place as team leader. His skills make him an asset on the undulating profile. David Lopez, who finished 2013 with some of the best racing of his career, provides another great support rider and potential fill-in.

Unlike Porte, Vincenzo Nibali hasn’t shown any signs of changing his mind on Paris-Nice, and he leads a powerful Astana squad. He was hot and cold in the Tour of Oman, but he tends to perform when the lights come on, and his descending skills will serve him well here. He has the muscle to back him. Tanel Kangert, Jakob Fuglsang, and Lieuwe Westra (2nd overall and a stage winner in 2012) are all very dangerous.

Nibali is an obvious choices for any stage race, but the nature of this profile offers a distinct advantage to the climbers with fast finishes. World Champ Rui Costa has started off the year in good shape, winning the points jersey at his home Vola ao Algarve on the back of several fine stages that netted him 3rd overall. He has the legs to hang on over the tough climbs, and the kick to fight for precious seconds at the line. Przemyslaw Niemiec will be ample backup.

Speaking of climbers with kick, Carlos Betancur looks to be rounding into form after a Haut Var-matin victory. He’s just the sort of rider to take advantage of this route. Don’t rule out Ag2R teammate, the up-and-coming Romain Bardet, who will share his teammate’s appreciation for the lack of a time trial in this race. Rafal Majka, of Tinkoff-Saxo, is another young climber to watch.

The smaller hills and lack of chrono miles might not seem like his style, but Tejay van Garderen is hot after a Tour of Oman in which his climbing was second only to Chris Froome. 4th here last year, TvG has the chops and the current form to improve on his performance. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is similarly more suited to longer climbs and TTs, but he’s also looking good in the early season and clearly in a position of team leadership.

IAM Cycling brings both of its biggest offseason acquisitions into this race. Sylvain Chavanel has had quite a history in this race, winning last year’s points classification, a stage, and 5th overall and adding those achievements to a long list of successes here in the past. This year’s route, without many serious mountaintop finishes and likely to be heavily reliant on bonus seconds, will play out in the French veteran’s favor. He’ll have Mathias Frank as a dangerous second. Simon Gerrans may seem like the choice for OGE, but early reports point to Michael Albasini being the leader. The OPQS lineup at Paris-Nice is awe-inspiring, but they seem to be more focused on stages than GC; Jan Bakelants or maybe Zdenek Stybar look like their best bet for the overall leaderboard. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin may shoot for a rare GC placing given the profile, but it’s unclear what his objectives are. Same for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Simon Spilak leads Katusha’s GC charge. Movistar sends the brothers Ion and Gorka Izagirre as well as John Gadret. Trek sends the Schleck brothers, and Frank actually looked pretty good in Oman before a puncture ruined his race. Garmin’s Tom Jelte Slagter is a keen climber and a fast finisher. Other outsiders include Tommy Voeckler, Maxime Monfort, Jerome Coppel, and Arnold Jeannesson, to name a few.

Stagehunters

Given the parcours, we can expect to see several sprint finishes in the 2014 Paris-Nice. None of Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, or Peter Sagan will be in attendance but the list of recognizable fast finishers making the trip is very long, and one worthy of a rapid-fire roll call, with parentheticals where details are useful. Here goes… Riders capable of taking one or more of these stage victories include headliners like Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb (three wins already this season), OGE’s Matt Goss and Michael Matthews, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, BMC’s Thor Hushovd and Greg van Avermaet, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (keep an eye on the rising star), Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (very strong last week), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Belkin’s Lars Boom (for the tougher stages; he looks great this season) and Moreno Hofland (for the flatter ones; he also looks great this season), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi, and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Steele Von Hoff. OPQS gets their own bit here, as they’ll be coming into Paris-Nice with guns-blazing. Tom Boonen is back with a vengeance, sprinting at a high level and bringing his usual endurance to boot. Meersman and Stybar are both excellent options on the bumpier stages. Terpstra could go for a long one. Nikolas Maes may not have the name recognition of his teammates, but he’s a viable option in the flat finishes.

Other pure sprinter types who can contend: Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Cofidis’s Adrien Petit, and a hot Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha. In addition to the faster overall contenders, watch out for the likes of Tony Gallopin, Simon Gerrans (looking very strong), Samuel Dumoulin, Enrico Gasparotto, and Arthur Vichot, in any number of stages in which their climbing skills might keep them involved with the GC riders.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Rui Costa

GC Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Carlos Betancur

GC Top 10: Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Sylvain Chavanel, Tejay van Garderen, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka

Remember to check back in soon for the VH pre-race take on Tirreno-Adriatico!

-Dane Cash

March 7, 2014