Tag: Vuelta a España

Stage 21: Las Rozas › Madrid – 104.8km

The Vuelta’s final stage is one for the sprinters. The topography offers very little in the way of launching pads for any enterprising attackers. The peloton will get off to a slow start, but the pace should be quite high on the Madrid circuit in preparation for a big bunch kick.

The sprint stages at this Vuelta have been distributed relatively evenly between potential winners, so there is no overwhelming favorite. I see four riders as having almost equal chances at winning. Gianni Meersman is probably my top pick, more because of his leadout than anything—his top speed is not the best, but Etixx teammates should be able to put him into a strong position in a final likely to put a high value on a good leadout train.

Jempy Drucker is another candidate for success based on the way he dominated the sprint that closed out Stage 16. If he can put that kind of speed on display again in Madrid, I wouldn’t expect anyone to beat him. That’s a big “if,” though.

Nikias Arndt has, since the start of the Vuelta, been the rider I figured to be the fastest in top form. He doesn’t appear to be in top form, but he’s shown signs of life recently and he’s taken some nice high-level wins already in his career, so a final-stage victory at the Vuelta would be no surprise.

Magnus Cort Nielsen‘s Stage 18 win was a surprise to me at the time, but given what he achieved there, he has to be a rider to watch as well. We’re still finding out what he can and can’t do, so it’s hard to predict anything for sure, but the potential for another stage win is there.

Jonas Van Genechten, Daniele Bennati, Rudiger Selig, Michael Schwarzmann, Fabio Felline, and Jens Keukeleire are others who may have a chance at the stage victory.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Jempy Drucker | 3. Nikias Arndt

Stage 20: Benidorm › Alto de Aitana – 193.2km

It’s time for the final mountain stage of the 2016 Vuelta. The profile doesn’t disappoint. Saturday’s 193.2km trek throws one Cat. 2 after another at the peloton over the course of the afternoon to wear the riders down before a grueling final climb.

The 5.9% average gradient of the Alto de Aitana is not all that intense, but at 21km, after so many prior ascents, it’s going to hurt. Plus, the final few kilometers are a bit steeper than the rest of the climb, providing a perfect launching pad for attacks. We should see plenty of them.

As far as the stage battle, I like the chances of the GC favorites a bit more than the break, simply because I expect the overall contenders to be going really hard up that final climb. There are several riders who have a chance to move up before Madrid. On the other hand, this has been a good Vuelta for breaks and this up-and-down profile does suit an early escape, so don’t be surprised to see a long-distance winner either.

Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will likely go head-to-head in the last 10km or so, and both of them (I give Froome a slight edge) have a shot at the stage win—but I especially like the chances of the riders slightly further down on GC. I think the two riders at the top of the leaderboard might allow the likes of Esteban Chaves, Simon Yates, or Alberto Contador to get some breathing room should one of them launch an attack. Chaves needs time badly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crossing the line first, though maybe not far enough ahead of Contador to get back onto the podium.

If it comes down to a long-range attack, it’s up to the usual breakaway suspects. Robert Gesink, Leopold König, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Gianluca Brambilla, Egor Silin are probably the strongest candidates, with Darwin Atapuma, Thomas De Gendt, Luis León Sánchez, and Alexandre Geniez in with a shot too.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana

Stage 18: Requena › Gandía – 200.6km

Stage 18 is reminiscent of Stage 16, with a profile that involves a lot of descending and a flat finish. The parcours should be forgiving enough to allow the sprinters a shot at the stage win, which would make the outcome reminiscent of Stage 16 as well.

Jempy Drucker was quiet in the first few stages of the Vuelta, but it’s hard to overlook him now that he’s proven his form. He took advantage of Etixx’s poorly timed leadout to win Stage 16, but it wasn’t all that close, leading me to believe that he should be capable of another victory even without help from his opponents.

That said, Gianni Meersman has generally looked strong in this race and his squad should be capable of executing a leadout better than they did Monday. A well-shepherded Meersman is capable of beating anyone here.

Jonas van Genechten hasn’t put his strength on display again in this Vuelta since taking his stage win, but he’s certainly a threat. Nikias Arndt is too, though he’s been far less impressive than I expected at the start of the race. Kristian Sbaragli, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Fabio Felline are others to keep an eye on for a potential sprint.

Given the length of the stage and its position on the overall Vuelta itinerary (with just three stages left), it is entirely possible that the sprinters’ teams drop the ball here. Should that happen, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Jan Bakelants, and Niki Terpstra are names to remember.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Jempy Drucker | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Nikias Arndt

Stage 17: Castellón › Llucena – 177.5km

The Vuelta peloton gets a rude welcome in its return from a rest day. Wednesday’s stage is one for the climbers, with two early Cat. 2s, a Cat. 3 whose official length of 11.2km ignores an uphill lead-in of several kilometers, and a very steep Cat. 1 finale.

The ramp to the finish line, though only 3.8km, has a vicious average grade of 12.5%. Expect some GC action—if anyone near the top of the leaderboard senses weakness from his rivals, a climb like this presents a great opportunity to nab time, as teammates are not particularly useful at these gradients.

As for the stage battle, I like the breakaway’s chances. The parcours will make this stage tough to control, and I expect the GC favorites to be more concerned with each other than anyone up the road. As such, anyone who can go from afar has to be considered a big threat here.

Robert Gesink has proven to be quite strong in this race, and if he gets into a breakaway here he’ll be tough to beat. Of the riders likely to be getting into the breaks in this Vuelta, he’s shown the best combination of ability and current form, and his grand tour skillset makes him deadly on a brutal finishing climb like this.

Gianluca Brambilla could also challenge for a stage win. He rode masterfully in Stage 15 to show off the excellent shape he’s in, and this finish suits him well.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active getting into moves so far, and he should like the finishing climb. He’s always been adept at putting the hammer down for a late solo move and that should suit him well on a short final climb.

Ben Hermans, Thomas De Gendt, Mathias Frank, Kenny Elissonde, Dries Devenyns, Egor Silin, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Latour, and the now-no-longer-in-GC-contention Leopold König are others to keep an eye on here.

If it’s the GC contenders battling for the stage, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious candidates for success (and I like Froome just a bit better), but I see some of the riders a bit further down the leaderboard as the likeliest stage winners. As Froome and Quintana may be busy watching each other on the final climb, either Esteban Chaves or Simon Yates could sneak away. Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez can’t be overlooked either.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Robert Gesink | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves