Tag: Vuelta a España

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Ortigueira › A Coruña – 190.7 km

With several tough mountain stages (closed out by Alberto Contador’s Stage 16 victory) behind them, the peloton will enjoy a day without any categorized climbs on Stage 17. The profile does include a few small bumps throughout, but the flat finish should motivate the sprinters’ teams to keep the break on a short leash. It’s not a given that they’ll succeed in bringing this back together as the line approaches, and the possibility for rain in the forecast could make things a bit more interesting, but as the last potential sprinters’ stage in the Vuelta a España, a bunch gallop on the waterfront in A Coruña seems likely.

With FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni out of the race, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb is the most dangerous sprinter in attendance, and he will be the top favorite for Stage 17. Plenty of riders have abandoned the Vuelta at this point, but Degenkolb still has elite leadout man Koen de Kort to guide him to the final few hundred meters, and he has the top speed to take this victory.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge will be among his main rivals for stage honors. Versatile as he is, he may be fresher than most after some very hard climbing this week, and he was 2nd to Bouhanni even in the very flat Stage 8. OPQS’s Tom Boonen is getting stronger as this race goes on and as the World Championships near (he was 2nd on Stage 12). He could benefit from bad weather. Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari has a 3rd place finish in this Vuelta already. With Max Richeze and Pippo Pozzato for support, Lampre is loaded for this one.

Astana’s Andrea Guardini has not been much of a factor even on the flatter stages in this race so far, but he has the talent to be in the mix. Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert, Garmin’s Nathan Haas, and IAM Cycling’s Vicente Reynes will be outside contenders for Stage 17. Trek has the speedy Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, but Fabian Cancellara looks to be getting stronger and he could give this a go, maybe even with an attempt at a long-range victory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Tom Boonen | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.

-Dane Cash

September 9, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: San Martín del Rey Aurelio › La Farrapona. Lagos de Somiedo – 160.5 km

After another tough day won by Przemyslaw Niemiec, Stage 16 closes out a trio of critical mountain stages in style, with no fewer than four Category 1 climbs (and a Cat. 2 thrown in for good measure), and the challenging profile won’t wait until the end of the day to test the peloton. The stage starts with 10 kilometers of slight incline before the first Cat. 1 is reached, the Alto de Colladona. After a tricky descent off the climb the riders will continue to go slightly downhill for another thirty kilometers or so, during which they will try to save as much energy as possible: after kilometer 60, it’s steep climbs or white-knuckle descents pretty much all the way to the finish line. First comes the Cat. 2 Alto del Cordal, followed by a descent right to the foot of the vicious Alto de la Cobertoria climb, a Cat. 1 of 10 kilometers at 8.8% (and it comes only halfway through the stage). From the top, the riders will take on a very technical downhill journey to Barzana, where the negative gradient will become gentler, but it won’t even out completely. When it does, after another 10 kilometers or so, the road kicks up again almost immediately, heading uphill in an uncategorized trip to the bottom of the categorized Puerto de San Lorenzo, another steep slope of 10.1 km at 8.5%. From the top it’s one more tricky descent the leads to one more uncategorized uphill trip to the foot of one more Cat. 1 climb: La Farrapona. It’s a long journey to the summit finish, 16.5 kilometers in total, and though the average gradient may seem manageable at 6.2%, the final 4 kilometers ratchet up the difficulty, with several stretches pushing over 10%.

While the Vuelta’s sixteenth stage is followed by a rest day and is one of the last opportunities the GC contenders will have to put each other under pressure in the mountains (two factors that could spur the red jersey hunters to a fast pace and a more likely catch of the morning break), the profile itself looks perfect for any aggressive riders who manage to get up the road. Early climbs will give the uphill specialists a good chance of getting into the day’s move, and the constant up-and-down will make it very difficult for anyone to control the race. This breakaway vs. GC bunch battle looks to be another tossup, which will again make it difficult to name anyone the clear favorite to take stage honors.

This very steep final climb should be yet another opportunity for Joaquim Rodriguez to get some separation from his rivals on the General Classification. He was unable to get clear of the rest of the red jersey hunters early on the last climb of Stage 15, and then spent most of the rest of the ascent letting Alberto Contador drive the pace, only sailing past in the final few hundred meters to steal a few seconds at the line. However, he won’t have many chances to get ahead after Stage 16, and the slope suits his style nicely. With time running out in this Vuelta, it’s hard to imagine that Katusha won’t look for stage honors and bonus seconds here. Daniel Moreno, as usual, will be a dependable second on these gradients.

Alberto Contador may have lost a bit of time to Rodriguez and Valverde on Stage 15, but only after pulling both of them up the mountain for quite some time. He continues to show impressive strength in this race, and a stage like this, with so many vertical meters on the day, will allow him to put his otherworldly uphill endurance on display.

Chris Froome again landed a good result after riding his own pace up a tough final climb on Stage 15. On peak form, he has the endurance to thrive on a hard stage like this; it will be interesting to see how he does despite not necesarilly being at his best. Alejandro Valverde took 2nd on Stage 15, but his nice result there didn’t necessarily show a whole lot more strength than we’ve seen just yet, as it came with a late jump around Alberto Contador (whom he’d been following for the last several kilometers) in the final few hundred meters. Stage 16 is one of the last chances for the climbers to create some space on the leaderboard, which should lead to more attacks on the final climb, and that will require more from Valverde. If he’s in a lead group in the last hundred meters, his sprint obviously makes him a top favorite, but that scenario will only occur if a lot of things go right for the 2008 winner of this race.

Dan Martin showed immense ability on Stage 15, finishing 11 seconds behind Chris Froome despite spending several kilometers just before the final climb chasing the pack after crashing. He’s far enough behind on GC that he should have a bit of freedom to put in a late dig. Fabio Aru, in a similar position, remains a nice candidate for stage honors with this steep finish if it is, in fact, the GC men who are vying for the day. Robert Gesink, Daniel Navarro, and Samuel Sanchez are others on the fringes of the GC battle who have shown strength in the past few mountain days and who are also good candidates to get clear of the rest of the GC types on the final ascent.

Several potential long-distance protagonists kept their powder dry and stayed in the pack on Stage 15. Ryder Hesjedal was one of them, but he did expend a lot of energy dragging Dan Martin back to the GC group after Martin’s crash. He’ll still be among the favorites if he gets into the day’s move, but it would be an impressive ride indeed if he were to succeed here after two tough days on the bike. David Arroyo was 8th on the stage that Hesjedal won from the break, and this will be another great opportunity for the pure climber to try for a long-range strike. Teammate Amets Txurruka is a good candidate to give it a go as well. Esteban Chaves has fallen out of GC contention in this Vuelta, and he could be hoping to get into the break on Stage 16, which has a steep finale that suits him; teammate Adam Yates is another likely long-distance hopeful. Astana’s Mikel Landa, Stage 15 winner Przemyslaw Niemiec of Lampre-Merida (if he still has anything left in the tank after two days in the break), his teammate Damiano Cunego, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, OPQS’s Gianluca Brambilla and Wouter Poels, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla and Louis Meintjes, Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq, and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other good candidates for breakaway success.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Daniel Martin

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! With a rest day on tap after Stage 16, the next preview will be up on Tuesday, so stay tuned for more.

-Dane Cash

September 7, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Oviedo › Lagos de Covadonga – 152.2 km

The Vuelta’s fifteenth stage is the second in a trio of intense mountain days (the first went to Ryder Hesjedal from the breakaway). Stage 15 is the shortest non-TT stage in the race at 152.2 kilometers, but the uphill challenges will make this a long day for everyone involved. Small, uncategorized hills are interspersed throughout the first 100 kilometers. Then comes the first categorized test of the day, the Puerto del Torno, a Cat. 2 of 7.2 kilometers at an 8.2% average gradient. The slopes are irregular, with several very steep sections on the way up; in other words, it’s harder than it looks. A tricky descent comes next, followed by a brief respite before the final climb: the iconic Lagos de Covadonga. 12.2 kilometers in length at an average grade of 7.2%, it’s another irregular ascent with several stretches (in the first half of the journey and then again at the very end) that push over 10%. It may rain, which would make this an even more difficult trip skyward.

It’s tough to say one way or the other whether the pack will let the break stay clear here. Coming after one hard day and with yet another to follow, the GC riders could take the first half of the day at a less than furious pace, hoping to save a little energy for all the climbing yet to come. That would give the break a good chance on a profile that is already breakaway-friendly. However, both Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez took a bit of time from Alberto Contador on Stage 14, suggesting that maybe he’s not as invincible as he has seemed so far in the race, and that may give Katusha and Sky the confidence and the motivation to put up more of a fight then they have so far and hunt down the valuable bonus seconds that await at the finish line.

That uncertainty means that no single rider stands out as the indisputable favorite, but there are a few likely top protagonists for each scenario. Should this all come back together for a GC showdown for stage honors, I see Alberto Contador as the day’s most likely winner. He may have lost a bit of time on Stage 14, but he did spend more energy than he probably should have trying to chase down Alejandro Valverde. Ultimately, Valverde lost time, and Contador has to know that Rodriguez and Froome are the most dangerous rivals now. The Lagos de Covadonga climb suits Contador quite well, and he’ll want to do what he can here to close the door of opportunity that may have cracked open just a bit on Stage 14.

Chris Froome‘s Vuelta a España has been enigmatic, to say the least. Who would have expected him to lose time to Alejandro Valverde in the time trial, only to outshine even Purito just days later on a climb with stretches of 20% gradients in the finale? This climb, less explosive except in the last hundred meters or so at the very top, should suit him a bit better, and if he can get away before the final two kilometers he’ll be hard to track down.

Joaquim Rodriguez couldn’t escape from Chris Froome on Stage 14, but he did show strength in putting some daylight between himself and Contador. He’ll have another shot at stage honors on Stage 15, if the GC men are battling for the day and if he can hold on until the very steep final run to the line that will give him a chance to put his elite uphill kick on display.

This is another good opportunity for Astana’s Fabio Aru to take a stage win. He crossed the line on Stage 14 just after Alberto Contador, and, still over two minutes down on GC, he will probably be given some breathing room if he tries to go on the move on Stage 15. Robert Gesink, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro, Daniel Moreno, and Mikel Nieve (if Team Sky is inclined to send him up the road) could face the same reaction if attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on the final slopes. Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, still 2nd overall though losing ground to Froome and Rodriguez, will have plenty of eyes on him and a lot of pressure to bounce back here. That’s not out of the question, and this stage, which eases in the final few kilometers and then hits a steep wall at the very end, does suit him, but he’ll need to find an extra gear fast if he wants to keep his place on GC secure.

No one potential breakaway protagonist could be called a top favorite for Stage 15, but there are several riders who will be well-positioned for glory if they can get out front of the peloton in a long-distance move. More than ten minutes behind on GC, Esteban Chaves is far enough off the radar of the top GC contenders that he should have some freedom to go up the road, and while he hasn’t yet put in a spectacular performance on one of the mountain stages in this Vuelta, he’s still been reasonably strong even when battling among the fringe GC contenders. Teammate Adam Yates might to try give this a go as well. Astana’s Mikel Landa, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OPQS’s Gianluca Brambilla, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla, and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other top-notch climbers who could shine in a long-range attack. Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Arroyo, Romain Sicard, and Louis Meintjes will likely be feeling the effects of spending Stage 14 out front when they set out on Stage 15, but depending on each rider’s ability to recover quickly, any one of them could feature again soon

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 15, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 6, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Santander › La Camperona. Valle de Sabero – 200.8 km

Stage 13, won by Dani Navarro, saw a skirmish among the GC riders in its final few kilometers, but the impending fourteenth stage of the Vuelta will likely be an intense battle among the top overall contenders of this race. The uphill challenges on Stage 14 are daunting. Things get started with 70 kilometers of mostly gentle roads before the Cat. 2 Collada de la Hoz kicks off the day’s categorized climbing. After cresting that ascent and then riding a tricky downhill, the peloton will take on approximately twenty kilometers of false flat at a slight incline before reaching the bottom of the Puerto de San Glorio, 20.9 kilometers long at a 5.8% average grade. There are sure to be some tired legs in the pack once they reach the top after over forty kilometers going uphill, but there will still be challenges yet to come on the day. Following a fast descent comes a long stretch of mostly flat roads before the final test. After 192.5 kilometers in the saddle, the peloton will reach the foot of La Camperona, a vicious 8.3 kilometer climb whose average gradient of 7.5% doesn’t really tell the whole story. Things start out relatively easy, but with around 2 kilometers to go, the road kicks up sharply, and it stays in the 15% range, touching well over 20% at points, until the final hundred meters or so, where things ease off to be only a little under 9% in the run to the line.

A profile like this will be absolutely brutal for all but the most lightweight climbing specialists. The GC contenders will be locked in on the final ascent, knowing that a bad day could lead to serious losses on such a steep climb (especially after some hard uphill riding earlier in the day). Stage 14 is likely to end in a major showdown for the red jersey hunters. Whether or not they are riding for stage honors will depend on how they play the run-in to La Camperona; if the pace is kept high over the flat section that precedes the final climb, with riders jostling for position as the slopes approach, the morning break will be doomed. However, there are some tough mountain days to come in the days ahead, which could lead to enough hesitation in the pack that if a truly top-notch climber is up the road, he might have a chance.

The top favorite to shine on this profile is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, the peloton’s premier uphill charger. He has put in attacks here and there in this race, but nothing has really stuck so far. This time, the parcours is perfect, and he needs to land a blow soon or he’ll have run out of opportunities to claw back time from those ahead of him on the leaderboard. He has the also explosive Daniel Moreno as an elite second.

Race leader Alberto Contador has been up to every challenge thrown his way in this race so far, and he should continue to shine here. His biggest weakness is his lack of team support, but he may be strong enough for that not to matter. He’s not the type to rest on his laurels (or his current race lead), and if he sees an opportunity to pick up more time on his rivals, he will.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is very dangerous on the extreme gradients, and he’s within striking distance of the overall lead. A strong ride seems likely on Stage 14, but he needs to get more aggressive in this race if he wants to move up to that coveted first spot in the General Classification.

Astana’s Fabio Aru took the eleventh stage of the race with a perfectly timed attack as the finish line approached, and he is still far enough back on GC that the riders at the very top of the leaderboard might give him some leeway if he tries to go on the move again. He has the skillset to achieve more success here. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin is in a similar boat, and he’s shown with repeated attempts to get away on the steep stuff that he’s highly motivated to get results on these climbs.

Robert Gesink, who looked strong in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on Stage 11, Samuel Sanchez, Stage 13 winner Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are other riders in the GC conversation who could enjoy a bit of freedom and potentially success if they attempt to get clear on the last climb. Chris Froome, who has at times looked very strong, and at times looked to be lacking something in this race, will be put to the test on this gradient; at his best he’d be a top candidate for success, but there won’t be anywhere to hide if he’s not feeling in peak condition when the road shoots skyward on Stage 14. Teammate Mikel Nieve could look to get something of his own if Sky decides to set him loose.

If the pack does put in the effort to keep the breakaway on a tight leash early in the day, it will be very hard for anyone up the road to stay clear all the way to the top of the final climb, but should the GC contenders spend the stage looking at each other instead of worrying about the break, it’s possible that a strong uphill talent could hold out for victory here. Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal, Astana’s Mikel Landa, OGE’s Esteban Chaves and Adam Yates, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, and Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam are on the list of strong-climbing riders who might be able to succeed from the morning breakaway; alternatively, some of the aforementioned group could look to put in a dig a bit closer to the finish line, still benefitting from being far enough out of GC contention that they might be given some breathing room.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 5, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Belorado › Obregón. Parque de Cabárceno – 152.2 km

Following a very flat Stage 12 that, unsurprisingly, ended in a sprint (won by John Degenkolb), the Vuelta’s thirteenth stage will be a more unpredictable affair. The Stage 13 parcours is a tale of two halves. The opening 95 kilometers of racing take place on mostly flat, mostly straight roads. After the first intermediate sprint near the midpoint of the stage, however, the road begins to twist and turn through a stretch of tough hills. First on tap is a Cat. 3, with a fast descent to follow, and then another Cat. 3 and another fast descent, and then a tough Category 2 and yet another downhill. Even after the descent from the Cat. 2, it is still an undulating journey to the line, with a few uncategorized challenges yet to come. The finish is a lumpy affair: at 2.5 km to go, the road kicks up dramatically for a short but steep (a few sections push 10%) climb, which will be an attractive potential launching pad for the punchier riders. Then comes a series of short ups and downs before things flatten out for the final hundred meters of straightaway.

The Stage 13 profile is one of the most breakaway-friendly in this race. Given the tough finish, the teams of the pure sprinters won’t be all that motivated to keep the early move in check, and even if the pack does try to maintain control of the day, the up-and-down, winding roads on the second half of the stage won’t make it easy. The opportunists, especially those with some punch or at least decent climbing legs and a nice finishing kick for the final straightaway, will be licking their lips at this opportunity to pick up a Grand Tour stage win.

No single rider qualifies as the favorite in a stage like this, but there is a very long list of riders who could shine. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is certainly one of them: the late rise is a perfect launching pad for the uphill charger, and he could look to get into the breakaway to contest the victory after a long day up the road. If Gilbert is in the lead group as the day nears its conclusion, whether that lead group is the main bunch or a small breakaway contingent, he’ll be hard to beat in the final few kilometers. His teammate Cadel Evans can’t be counted out either: with the climbing legs to handle the undulating profile and a nice finishing kick, and sitting more than 30 minutes behind on GC, Evans could try something from afar on Stage 13.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is another strong finisher who isn’t afraid to get into the long-range moves. After starting the Vuelta in domestique mode while riding himself back into form, he’s now showing much more interest in battling for stage wins. He won’t be allowed into the day’s break without a fight, but if he is in the move he’ll be a top favorite; if he isn’t, and if things do come back together, he’ll be a top favorite in that scenario as well. His teammate Alessandro De Marchi is an elite breakaway specialist, and though he doesn’t have the same punchy style as Sagan, he is a tough rider who handles this sort of climbing particularly well. He has already taken one stage in this race. Oscar Gatto is yet another Cannondale rider with a chance to go for a long one here.

Ryder Hesjedal is on the hunt for stage wins after falling out of GC contention in this Vuelta, and he does have a bit more explosiveness than many realize. He will be a top contender if he’s in the early break. Teammate Nathan Haas is very strong on a profile like this, and he knows how to play the breakaway game; he’s another good option for Garmin-Sharp.

Luis Leon Sanchez has not been much of a factor in the higher-profile races this season, but Stage 13 does have a parcours that will suit him very nicely. A strong soloist who can climb and sprint quite well, he will be dangerous if he can get into the day’s breakaway. Caja Rural teammate Amets Txurruka is always dangerous on a lumpy profile as well.

Trek has an impressive collection of riders who could be in the mix from afar in a hilly stage like this with Julian Arredondo, Bob Jungels, Fabio Felline, and Fabian Cancellara all potential protagonists here. Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Giampaolo Caruso, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OGE’s Adam Yates, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko, and OPQS’s Pieter Serry and Tony Martin are others who will be well-suited to breakaway success on Stage 13.

If the peloton does reel in the day’s breakaway before the finish line, a select few sprinters with good climbing legs and the more explosive GC riders will join the list of potential protagonists. In that scenario, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge will be the top favorite, having put his impressive climbing form on display in his Stage 3 victory. Belkin’s Paul Martens might have a chance of holding on for a potential sprint. John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano won’t have an easy time surviving the late climbs, but it’s not out of the question that he makes it to the last hundred meters of flat to contest a sprint. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez, BMC’s Samuel Sanchez, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, Belkin’s Robert Gesink (who possesses an underrated finishing kick), Astana’s Fabio Aru, and race leader Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo will also be contenders if Stage 13 is contested by the main pack.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 4, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Logroño › Logroño – 166.4 km

The Vuelta’s eleventh stage followed up an eventful time trial with even more drama: Fabio Aru took the stage win in a hard-fought battle among the GC contenders, but the biggest story of the day was the abandonment of Nairo Quintana following another crash. Stage 12, which consists of eight laps of a 20.8 kilometer circuit in and around the town of Logroño, should allow the red jersey hunters to settle down a bit.

Each lap includes the climb of a small, uncategorized hill and then a descent onto a flat stretch where the finish line awaits. Things get a bit technical in the final 5 kilometers of the circuit, with several roundabouts and sweeping turns in store as the road heads toward the center of town, but the final kilometer of each go-round is a flat, straight run to the line. The weather forecast for Stage 12 includes some chance of rain, which could make things a bit hectic on the urban circuit.

A profile like this will make it almost impossible for an early break to go the distance. After several days of GC battles, the sprinters’ teams won’t want to miss this chance for a bunch gallop, and they’ll likely keep a sharp eye on the gap to ensure that their quick men get the finish they want. The sprinters will still have to be on their toes as the day draws near its close, however; it won’t be an easy task to steal one from the fast finishers, but on an urban circuit like this, it’s almost certain that a few enterprising riders will attempt late attacks from the bunch.

With a high likelihood of a bunch sprint for stage honors, Stage 12 should offer another showdown between Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb and FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni. Bouhanni will love the circuit, and the fact that there aren’t any categorized climbs on the menu. Potential bad weather would favor him as well. On this stage likely to go to the pure sprinters, he probably has a slight edge over Degenkolb, but don’t count the German out: their last head-to-head matchup came one day after Degenkolb had crashed, and he’s had some time to recover since then. His powerful leadout boosts his chances. It should be a close battle.

OGE’s Michael Matthews showed his impressive top speed on Stage 8, crossing the line in 2nd behind Bouhanni. He’s highly motivated to show anyone watching that he has what it takes to be in the mix even against the sprinting heavyweights on a flat day.

Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari was 3rd in Stage 2 of this race, and he’ll have another good opportunity to land a good result on the flat Stage 12. Astana’s Andrea Guardini has not yet featured in the group sprints of this Vuelta, but he should be able to get involved here. He has the speed to challenge even Bouhanni and Degenkolb in a bunch kick if he can make it to the final few kilometers in a good position. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan finally showed an interest in contesting a stage victory on Stage 8, where he took 3rd. If he decides to put in the effort here on Stage 12, he’ll be among the favorites in a sprint, especially with some corners to navigate in the run-up to the final straightaway and the potential for bad weather. Matteo Pelucchi, Tom Boonen, Jens Debusschere, Yauheni Hutarovich, Gerald Ciolek, Francesco Lasca, Robert Wagner and Jasper Stuyven are on the long list of outside contenders for the probable sprint finish.

Though it will be very hard to stave off a hungry pack of sprinters, a few of the stronger solo artists in this race will probably try to attack on the last lap and use the twists and turns of the final few kilometers to hold an advantage over the chasers. Watch out for the likes of Tony Martin, Philippe Gilbert, Adam Hansen, and Fabian Cancellara as the peloton re-enters Logroño for the last time on the final lap.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 3, 2014