Episode 52: Vuelta a España 2016 Show, Part I
The Recon Ride looks ahead to the Vuelta a España, which has drawn some of the biggest names in the pro peloton to Spain for one last shot at Grand Tour glory.
[powerpress]
Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano dive into the Vuelta’s route, startlist, and storylines, and Trek-Segafredo’s Kiel Reijnen weighs in on what’s it like to be gearing up for a first grand tour appearance.
Photo by Paco Rubio Ordás (CC).
On the heels of a thrilling Stage 20 that turned the Vuelta upside-down comes the final stage, very likely to end in a straightforward sprint.
Less than a hundred kilometers long and without any real climbs, the final stage of the Vuelta won’t be particularly hard. The main challenge will be the urban roads—after about 40km riding through the suburbs, the peloton will ride into a city circuit for 10 5.8km laps, and there are plenty of twists and turns in store.
Given the profile, a sprint is the likeliest scenario. A few of the quick men have stayed on in the race through the mountains for this opportunity, and they’re likely to put their teams on the front to keep things under control.
John Degenkolb has endured a long and challenging Vuelta without a stage win, but he should be the clear top dog among the sprinters left in the race. In terms of top speed, he’s the proven name here. However, Degenkolb has not been nearly as dominant as expected against a diminished field here, and while I still see him as the favorite, others will have their shot.
Danny Van Poppel is probably the strongest potential challenger to Degenkolb. Trek has had a great Vuelta and the team is highly motivated in the battle for stage wins. While Degenkolb has the edge over most riders here on pure speed, Van Poppel actually comes pretty close, and if he can win the battle for position he’s got a shot at a second Vuelta stage win.
Kristian Sbaragli won a messy Stage 10 to show off his sprinting chops and should be in the mix again on Stage 21. It’s likely to be a pretty hectic finale with all the cornering to be done, and that could help Sbaragli take another win over riders who might be faster in a test of pure speed.
José Joaquín Rojas, Max Richeze, Daniele Bennati, Tosh Van Der Sande, Tom Van Asbroeck, and Jean-Pierre Drucker are the outsiders with a shot in the likely sprint finish.
Of course, a late attack by the likes of Adam Hansen or Sylvain Chavanel can’t be ruled out: it’s been a long Vuelta and it’s possible someone could catch the sprinters’ teams off guard on a circuit that is technical enough to make things interesting.
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Danny Van Poppel | 3. Kristian Sbaragli
The final stage of the Vuelta marks the 63rd and final Grand Tour stage preview from VeloHuman this season. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed all the action! Be sure to keep an eye out for the next few episodes of the Recon Ride podcast and for pre-race thoughts on the last few events of the season, and follow @VeloHuman for more analysis.
Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.
The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.
11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.
After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.
As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.
If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.
Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.
Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.
Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.
For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez
Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s third and final Vuelta podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20.
The Vuelta’s 19th stage, much like the Vuelta’s 18th stage, looks like a great day for the breakaway artists. The rouleurs will have this one final chance at a Vuelta stage win before a Stage 20 that will favor the strong climbers and then the sprinters’ Stage 21—that should make for an exciting battle.
The profile is a lumpy one, but there are only two categorized climbs on the menu. The first 70km are very slightly uphill. The comes a succession of rollers that lead into the first official climb of the day, the Cat. 3 Alto de Valdavia. Then comes a long stretch of mostly downhill roads with a few little climbs along the way, running in to a short flat section from kilometer 140 to kilometer 150. From there, the road angles upward again for several kilometers, with a stretch of uncategorized climbing and then the Cat. 2 Alto de la Paramera, 8.7km at 4.5%. It’s not the hardest climb in the world but the uncategorized run-in will make it significantly more challenging, and the length is likely to rule out most of the sprinters on this stage.
After the KOM summit there are 19 mostly kilometers to the finish. It’s downhill most of the way, before the road angles upward in the last 2.5km, with a stretch of roughly 6% in the beginning before the gradients get a bit lower in the final km.
The long climb that comes relatively close to the finish will probably be too much for the sprinters, but not hard enough to spur all that much GC excitement in the leadup. That makes this an excellent day for the breakaway specialists, which of course means that there are no real favorites for Stage 19, though there are a few candidates for breakaway success whose chances look to be particularly strong.
After two and a half weeks of riding as a loyal Movistar lieutenant, Giovanni Visconti finally showed some interest in getting up the road on Stage 18, but he missed the main move and then found the task of bridging to the group to be too much. With that motivation in mind, he has to be among the top contenders for Stage 19. He can climb with the GC favorites on a good day, and also has a nice sprint, particularly in a hilly finale, making him dangerous here. José Joaquín Rojas made the breakaway on Stage 18, and if he has recovered well enough he’s a candidate from the break too.
Caja Rural’s José Goncalves couldn’t quite bridge to the leaders in the waning moments of Stage 18, but he’ll have another chance here if he’s got some energy left in the tank. This finish suits him perfectly. Pello Bilbao is another strong option for Caja Rural.
Julien Simon tends to fly under the radar, putting in Top 10s here and there but rarely nabbing a big win, but this stage suits him down to the ground. He can survive a climb, and he’s a very fast finisher, especially with a slight gradient at the line.
Alessandro De Marchi and Darwin Atapuma would prefer a more difficult parcours but both are strong in a breakaway scenario. The same is true for Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard, who are running out of chances to deliver a Vuelta a España win for Europcar after several near misses.
Rubén Plaza and Kristijan Durasek are both excellent options for Lampre. Plaza won a not-dissimilar stage in the Tour this year.
Luis León Sánchez, Adam Hansen, Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, and Stephen Cummings are others to watch out for as potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.
If this does come down to the pack, a bunch sprint seems unlikely. John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in that scenario, but it’s more probable that the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Daniel Moreno (along with the faster finishers mentioned above who don’t make it into the break) battle it out for the stage from a more select group.
1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. José Goncalvez | 3. Julien Simon
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 19.
There are just four stages left in the 2015 Vuelta a España, and only three of them have climbs to speak of: anyone who isn’t satisfied with their GC position thus far has to put it all on the line in the next few days. That should make for an exciting finale.
Stage 18 is a lumpy one, and while it may lack a summit finish, don’t underestimate the potential for action. The stage opens with a long false flat, a few rollers, and then a very long false flat (about 30km at a 1% gradient or so) that runs into the first of the stage’s three categorized climbs, the Cat. 3 Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón. After a downhill stretch comes another Cat. 3, and then the next 80 kilometers are a constant succession of short ups and downs that, while uncategorized, will likely inject some fatigue into the legs.
At kilometer 181, the riders will hit the final climb of the day, the cat. 1 Puerto de la Quesera. 10km at 5.2%, it starts out relatively easy before getting a bit more difficult after 4km. From the top, it’s only 13km to the finish, downhill all the way to the line.
In terms of the stage win, this one looks tailormade for the breakaway. The GC favorites put everything on the line on Stage 17 and might be bringing a bit of fatigue into the day, and without a summit finish, there might be bit less pace in the peloton late in the afternoon.
Alessandro De Marchi already has one breakaway stage victory in this Vuelta and a few of the days ahead will offer more opportunities for De Marchi’s aggressive brand of racing. He’s not a sprinter, nor is he an elite climber compared to the jersey hopefuls, but he’s excellent on rolling terrain.
Giovanni Visconti has the multi-fateced skillset to win. And a nice finishing kick to place highly at the line. Movistar politics are the big unknown here. but if he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, he’s a rider to watch.
Europcar has landed riders in break over and over agains in this Vuelta and this stage should continue that trend. Cyril Gautier has a strong track record on small climbs like this and Romain Sicard is having a great run so far.
Lampre-Merida’s Rubén Plaza took a Tour de France stage victory in July bolstered by his ability to put in a good performance on lumpy terrain. Caja Rural’s José Goncalves is well-suited to the parcours, though the team has so many options it’s hard to pick just one. Adam Hansen, Julien Simon, Stephen Cummings, and Niki Terpstra are others could be looking to win the early battle to get into the break.
Alejandro Valverde has to be to the top favorite if the red jersey hopefuls are fighting it out for the stage victory. With a sprint that is so much better than that of his rivals, he’s looking strong again, so the climbs shouldn’t trouble him.
Joaquím Rodriguez is also well-suited to success on the parcours. He needs to make something happen as soon as possible to still hold on to his slim chance at the red jersey. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he tries something on the final climb.
1. Alessandro De Marchi | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. José Goncalves
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18.
For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.
38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.
Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).
While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.
Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.
Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.
Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.
Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.
I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.
1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.