Episode 26: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III The Vuelta a España remains a hotly contested race even into its third week, which gives the Recon Ride plenty to talk about in this third and final Vuelta show.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at where things stand at the Vuelta after 16 stages, and what’s on tap as the year’s final Grand Tour comes down the home stretch, with a bit of help from veteran cycling journalist Andrew Hood.
The Vuelta’s 16th stage will be among the hardest in the race. The road is angled sharply upward or downward for the majority of the day, and the finish is brutal.
The stage starts on a climb, the Cat. 3 Alto de Aristébano, which could spring the day’s main breakaway. If not, the agressors will have more opportunities to jump clear on the pair of uncategorized climbs that follow, or the Cat. 2 Alto de Piedratecha that comes next.
A less challenging stretch follows as the road slopes mostly downward from the top of the Piedratecha until about kilometer 80, where a short Cat. 3 awaits. Then comes another short climb, this time a Cat. 2, followed by a descent, a brief flat section, and then a trio of climbs that get progressively harder to close out the stage.
First up is the Cat. 2 Alto del Cordal, 8.5km at 5.7%. It’s more of a leg softener than anything. It’s followed by testy downhill into the vicious Alto de la Cobertoria, 9.8km at an 8.7% average gradient. The climb is harder than the metrics would suggest, as the average gradient is closer to 10% if you take out a less challenging final kilometer. Given the closeness of the GC battle, it would make sense for the red jersey hopefuls to initiate hostilities on this climb, even if there is a special-category ascent still to come. We’ll see if anyone has the guts to try.
One last downhill follows the Cat. 1 summit, and then it’s on to one of the most painful climbs in the race, the Alto Ermita de Alba.
The gradients on the Alto Ermida de Alba are such that holding the wheel of the next rider in line will offer virtually no benefit—only the climbing specialists will be able to survive this climb.
It’s only 6.8km, but the average gradient is 11.1%, with a particularly nasty midsection that kicks up over 21% for a little while. It’s not exactly easy after that, with gradients still hovering in or around the double digits for the rest of the way up.
There are still a few mountain stages to come in the Vuelta, but Stage 16 is the last day with a summit finish, and there’s a long, flat time trial on the horizon, which means that the climbing stars need to put everything they have into this showdown to build up an advantage. In terms of the stage victory itself, this does look like a great profile for the long-range specialists, with climbs from the get-go that will favor the more uphill-oriented riders in the battle to get into the break, and then a wild finale that will be very hard to control. On the other hand, the smart play from any team other than Giant-Alpecin will be to drive a torrid pace over the climbs to weaken those who aren’t as suited to the gradients. I see the peloton vs. breakaway showdown as a 50-50 proposition.
Joaquím Rodríguez has been stronger than Fabio Aru on the past two stages in a row, and Stage 16 will be considerably harder than Stages 14 or 15 were, with some incredibly steep sections that should open up serious gaps between riders at the end of the day. Rodríguez attacked efficiently and effectively on Stage 15 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Stage 16 as well—the last climb suits him perfectly. In any case, I see Aru as the other top favorite out of the GC men.
Rafal Majka is very much in the conversation as well. He couldn’t follow Rodríguez on Stage 15 but smartly rode in Aru’s wheel for a little while before letting the Italian go on ahead, only to pass him again before the line. I’m not sure this climb suits him all that well as it is just so steep, but he’s looking fresh and aggressive at the moment.
Nairo Quintana is certainly looking better than he did earlier in the race and will be an excellent candidate for stage success because of his GC position, far enough behind the leaders that he may get some breathing room if he tries an attack again. With 3 minutes over Quintana, Aru and Rodríguez can afford to let him go on the move. The same could be said for Esteban Chaves, who is likely to lose ground in the coming time trial. Chaves is riding into completely unknown territory right now, contending into the third week of racing at a Grand Tour, but he doesn’t look to be slowing down much.
Should the break contest the win, I’m looking at the same names that have come up in that conversation so far. Rodolfo Torres is my top pick of potential candidates for long-range success, as he combines form and climbing ability with a clear interest in going on the move. He was in an early breakaway on Stage 15 that was ultimately reeled in before the main move got clear, and I expect him to try again on Stage 16. The same goes for Fabio Duarte. This final climb is one for the real specialists, and that makes both Colombians dangerous.
I also expect Sky to try to get someone into the breakaway. Sergio Henao finished within 2 minutes of Purito on Stage 15 despite working for Nieve most of the afternoon. He’s clearly in excellent shape. Ian Boswell, Nicolas Roche, and Vasil Kiryienka could also try to get involved in the break.
On form and ability, Mikel Landa of Astana and Giovanni Visconti of Movistar are obvious candidates to take this stage from a breakaway if they get up the road, but the big question is whether they will be gunning for the move or helping team leaders—Landa has shown a willingness to do his own thing despite team orders, and Visconti rides for a squad whose chances of making a GC impact are dwindling, but it’s hard to predict what they’ll do.
The Europcar quartet of Jérôme Cousin, Romain Sicard, Pierre Rolland, and Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi, Kenny Elissonde, and Bart De Clercq are other riders to watch out for as potential stage winners from a breakaway move.
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Vuelta a España analysis. Stage 16 is followed by a rest day, so the preview of Stage 17 will be up on Tuesday. In the meantime, keep an eye out for a new episode of the Recon Ride.
The climbing continues in the Vuelta’s 15th stage. The 175.8km journey from Comillas to Sotres resembles Stage 14 in that it opens with a long stretch without many serious challenges before ramping up to a tough finishing climb.
The first 70 kilometers of Stage 15 consist mostly of small rolling hills. An uncategorized ascent then signals the start of the more difficult terrain. It’s followed by an intriguing Alto del Torno climb, a Cat. 2 of 10.1km at an average gradient of 3.2% that will likely be far more challenging than the metric indicate, thanks to its irregular nature. The road ascends in three successive steep sections broken up by a pair of quick downhills, which will make for a constantly changing pace that isn’t going to be particularly comfortable.
From the top it’s a fast descent into a flat section around 20km before an uncategorized bump, and then a final downhill into the finishing climb, the Alto de Sotres.
The double-digit gradients that close out Stage 15 will undoubtedly see gaps open up among the GC contenders.
A Cat. 1 of 12.7km at 7.9%, it’s one of the most difficult climbs in the race, an irregular ascent with a challenging opening third, an easier midsection, and a vicious final 3km that ascend into the double digits, with a stretch of 13% just before the finish line.
The last 70km of Stage 15 will make for an exhausting finale. The very steep final few kilometers will make this stage a critical day for the GC favorites, especially those who fear the time trial to come. In terms of the battle for stage honors, however, I think the breakaway specialists will have an excellent opportunity today. With the most difficult part of the stage at the very end of the final climb, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see the GC favorites hold off on major hostilities until the very end of the day.
The breakaway riders will likely open up a big advantage on the flat kilometers at the start of the stage where the GC teams will be less interested in driving the pace, and the rolling, irregular terrain that follows will make for a day that is difficult to control.
As such, I don’t see any one rider as the top favorite, but I see several potential long-range candidates with a great shot at success, and with the top-flight GC names as obvious favorites if everything comes back together.
Several potential breakaway candidates kept missed (or intentionally stayed away from) the Stage 14 break, which should make for a hotly contested fight to make the break on Stage 15.
Team Colombia has put riders in breakaways throughout this Vuelta a España, as expected, but the team has little to show for it so far. It would help if they could get either one of their two best climbers up the road. Rodolfo Torres got off to a slow start in the Vuelta, but he has looked good climbing with the overall GC favorites in the past few mountain stages. A breakaway stage win should be doable. Getting up the road may be his biggest challenge—Torres doesn’t have nearly as much experience making it into breakaway moves at this level as some of his teammates, who have made careers out of going off the front in Grand Tours. Fabio Duarte is certainly one of those riders, and near the end of a quiet season he’s finally starting to show some ability.
BMC will be in a great position to double up after Alessandro De Marchi’s Stage 14 win if Darwin Atapuma can get into the early move. A stage without much in the way of challenging descents should suit Atapuma, who is better at going up than going down.
Europcar’s Romain Sicard is looking very good right now and he has doggedly chased down breakaway attempts so far in the race and could get up the road again here, but now sitting within 4 minutes of the overall lead, he could find it hard to stick in the move. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, and Jérôme Cousin may be better options for the team.
Sky has several cards to play in the hunt for stage wins in the mountains: Vasil Kiryienka, Sergio Henao, Ian Boswell, and Nicolas Roche are all viable options, and all four will have a chance if they make the break.
Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador give Movistar two terrific candidates for breakaway success, but it’s hard to say how interested Movistar will be in the stagehunting game now that they appear to be back in the GC battle.
If Mikel Landa is in the early move, he’s an obvious candidate for long-range success, though it’s hard to say what’s on his mind now that he’s got one Vuelta stage win in the bag. Rubén Plaza, Bart De Clercq, Kenny Elissonde, Bert-Jan Lindeman, David Arroyo, José Goncalves, and Frank Schleck are others who could have success from afar.
Despite losing some ground to a few of his rivals, Fabio Aru looked strong on Stage 14, probably giving up time more as a function of attacking too early than anything else. He will again be among the favorites out of the group of GC contenders. He’s not afraid to go on the attack to build his advantage, either. Still, Nairo Quintana looks much-improved after a rough patch, and will be a formidable opponent on the steep stuff. I’m still not sure that he’s up to beating Aru on these vicious gradients, but it won’t be much of a surprise to see him leave the Italian behind either.
Joaquím Rodríguez should look like the look of the finale, and the slightly shorter final climb of Stage 15 should suit him better than the climb that closed out Stage 14. Purito has not been as aggressive as expected thus far in the Vuelta, but he has to know he is running out of opportunities to make a difference in this race.
Esteban Chaves continues to show his talents, and he could enjoy a longer leash now that he’s over a minute down on GC. Rafal Majka looked good, if not worldbeating, on Stage 14, and he might get some breathing room to launch an attack on Stage 15 as well.
After two comparatively easy days, the Vuelta a España peloton returns to the mountains for Stage 14.
It’s a long one at 215 total kilometers, and though it opens with 80km without categorized climbs, things get pretty tricky after that.
At around kilometer 80 the road angles upward gently for 27 long kilometers into the foot of the first categorized climb of the stage, the Cat. 3 Puerto Estacas de Trueba. Officially the climb is only 11km at 2.9%, but taken with the uphill stretch prior to the categorized section it’s nearly 40km of climbing. The average gradient across that entire span may be less than 2% but that is still a very long time to be going upward.
The Cat. 3 summit is followed by a fast descent into the foot of a Cat. 1, the 11.5km Puerto del Escudo. The average gradient of 6.4% doesn’t really tell the whole story—the first 4km are not very steep but then the road kicks into the double digits for several prolonged stretches.
From the top of the Cat. 1 the riders will take a very brief downhill and then a long flat stretch before starting the final climb, the special-category 18km Alto Campoo, which has an average gradient of 5.5%. Again, the early slopes are relatively easy but the climb gets harder as it goes on.
Stage 14 is very long, and the three categorized climbs will be tough enough to put plenty of hurt into the legs. The profile, as with any mountainous profile, will give the breakaway a chance, especially if the GC riders are less inclined to ride a hard tempo with two more mountain stages ahead. On the other hand, the pace in the pack is likely to pick up on that long late flat section in preparation for a long final climb, which could doom a move up the road. With a few stages that could appeal more to the breakaway coming up, some long-range specialists could opt to keep the powder dry.
Among the GC riders in the race, Fabio Aru looks the strongest right now, and his team packs serious punch. If Aru wants to gain time on his rivals, he should be able to pull it off, as he’s just looked that good so far. However, with the overall victory very much in his reach, Aru could be focused entirely on the two riders within a minute of his lead, and that could open the door for others.
Rafal Majka has looked strong on every summit finish of the Vuelta so far. He’s currently sitting 4th overall, and while his deficit to Aru is not so great that Astana will just let him get up the road without a thought, he may be able to land an attack if there is any hesitation while Aru watches those closer to his lead. This is a great finishing climb for Majka, who might be just a bit behind some of the top GC men on the extreme gradients, but who is excellent in a sustained attack from a few kilometers out.
Joaquím Rodríguez needs to get moving if he wants to have a chance at winning the overall Vuelta title. Currently 2nd overall, this may be the best chance he’s going to get at a Grand Tour victory for the rest of his career. He has looked strong so far, though not dominant. He’s the most explosive rider within striking distance of the overall title, though, and if he can team up with Daniel Moreno to launch a move on this final climb, he’s got a shot at stage success.
Esteban Chaves, a bit further down on GC now, should have plenty of freedom to go hunting for another stage win. Alejandro Valverde has not looked at his best in the past few stages, but if he can recover some strength, he’s an obvious candidate for stage success now that he, too, is less of a GC threat. Movistar will want to do everything possible to get another stage win out of the Vuelta with sickness laying Nairo Quintana low.
Mikel Nieve is Sky’s best hope of coming away from the Vuelta with a result and he should get some breathing room. This climb suits him well.
It’s going to take a strong climber to win this stage from a breakaway, but there are a few good candidates for a successful long-range attack on Stage 14. Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Giovanni Visconti, Andrey Amador, Vasil Kiryienka, and Darwin Atapuma are among the riders who could have a chance in that scenario.
VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites
1. Rafal Majka | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez
As the Vuelta gets lumpier and lumpier, we can probably start to expect more and more breakaway victories. Stage 13 is a great place for the long-range hopefuls to get on track for the week ahead.
Things open with a bit of up-and-down before an uphill run-in into a Cat. 3. Officially the climb is only 8.2km but by the time the riders reach the top they will have been ascending for over 18km at a low gradient. After a quick downhill comes a relatively easy Cat. 1, 10.9km at a bit under 5%. From there the road heads downward again for nearly 50km before things flatten out for a short stretch.
The final categorized climb, a Cat. 3 of 8.5km at 4.5%, officially peaks at a little over 30km before the finish. The road still angles upward slightly for a few more kilometers, but then it’s a long downhill run that only evens out inside the final 10km.
There is another small bump that starts with a little under 2.5km left in the stage, but the road flattens out near the flamme rouge for a relatively straightforward finale.
None of the climbs on Stage 13 are particularly difficult, but it’s hard to see the peloton reeling in the early move: the up-and-down profile will make things hard to control, and the stage is too easy to entice the GC teams to contribute to pushing the pace. The sprinters will have a chance on Stage 13, but it seems much more likely that this one will go down to the breakaway specialists.
As such, there are no real “favorites” for the stage, only riders who seem like good candidates for a win from afar.
Europcar is usually pretty adept at getting riders into breakaways, and they have multiple options in the Vuelta. The challenge will be turning opportunities into success, which they haven’t achieved much of this year. On ability, Cyril Gautier should be their top choice on this profile. He’s got good climbing legs and packs some punch for a late escape or a reduced sprint. Still, it’s difficult to predict whether he’ll even try to get in the move at all. Romain Sicard and Jerome Cousin have been very active for Europcar in this Vuelta and they may get the nod to go up the road instead.
Niki Terpstra has tried his luck with a few escape attempts so far in the Vuelta, and this profile should him more than many of the those that remain. He’s not the world’s greatest climber but he’s got plenty of pop and excellent soloing ability. Young Spaniard Carlos Verona is another option for Etixx-QuickStep.
After a rough outing on Stage 11, Movistar is probably looking to get more active in the breakaway game. Giovanni Visconti is an excellent option for this stage, with just the right skillset for the profile, and he’ll be among the favorites if he can get into the breakaway.
Adam Hansen has been a little bit quieter than expected in the breakaway game up to this point in the race, but Stage 13 suits him well. He’d probably prefer a more techincal run-in though.
Alessandro De Marchi has been quiet all season, but he has finally started to show some interest in getting active. He could be BMC’s best option, as these climbs may not be challenging enough to appeal to Darwin Atapuma or Samuel Sánchez.
Caja Rural will almost certainly send someone up the road, but it’s hard to say who it will be. Omar Fraile has been very active off the front sweeping up KOM points but now that he has a big lead in that classification, the team may be more interested in a stage win. Pello Bilbao and José Goncalves, both of whom have looked particularly good this year, are their best options to pull that off.
Miguel Angel Rubio was Colombia’s breakaway man on Stage 12, which could mean someone else makes the attempt on Stage 13. Carlos Quintero has been active so far. Rubén Plaza, who has been riding well since June, and Kristijan Durasek, who does have a bit of speed for a fast finish, give Lampre-Merida a pair of strong options. Stephen Cummings, AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini and Blel Kadri, Cannondale-Garmin’s Alex Howes and Ben King, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders on the list of potential long-range candidates for Stage 13 success.
In the (unlikely) event that this does come down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is the favorite, despite his lack of wins so far, while Tosh Van der Sande, José Joaquín Rojas, Danny Van Poppel, and Kristian Sbaragli will also probably be in the mix.
After a brutal day in the mountains, the Vuelta will show mercy to the peloton with a less vicious Stage 12.
The first 35km of the stage are downhill. Then comes the only categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Coll de Bóixols, 15.8km at a little over 5%. It’s not an easy climb but coming as early in the stage as it does, it probably won’t inflict too much damage on the bunch. From the top the stage is downhill or flat for almost the rest of the day. The final half-kilometer does angle upwards somewhat, but at a gradient of less than 4%.
The profile shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the sprinters still in the peloton, and with so few opportunities for bunch finishes in this Vuelta, we can expect the sprinters’ teams to put in a lot of effort keeping the early breakaway on a tight leash. Plus, Stage 13 is a perfect stage for the breakaway, and that could see some of the top long-range protagonists keeping their powder dry for a day.
In the likely sprint scenario, John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in terms of peak ability, and despite having not yet won a stage in the Vuelta a España, he does look pretty good in the form department, if not at 100%. He nearly won Stage 10 despite having horrible positioning in the final 500 meters, and now that Giant-Alpecin will be less focused on Tom Dumoulin (who no longer holds the red jersey), Degenkolb should get a better leadout for the sprint. Barring a crash, it’s hard to see anyone beating Degenkolb here.
Kristian Sbaragli will certainly try, and will come into this stage bolstered by the fact that he’s already bested Degenkolb once in the race. It would be a pretty big surprise if he can double up, as Degenkolb is significantly quicker in a headsup battle, and there are others who can probably match Sbaragli as well if they can position themselves a bit better this time around.
One of those riders is José Joaquín Rojas. He couldn’t best Sbaragli on Stage 10, but the Italian veered in his direction in the finale of that sprint, making it much harder for the Spaniard to come around—so I’m not sure how great of a marker that performance was. I expect Rojas to place very highly here, and the slight gradient at the finish should suit him.
Tosh Van der Sande has looked strong so far in the race, and managed to come in 4th on Stage 10 after opening his sprint far too early. He could challenge again here. Jean-Pierre Drucker should be in the mix as well.
Danny Van Poppel is lacking in the versatility department and has not featured yet in the sprints at the Vuelta, but he should be able to hang on to contest the sprint here, and will have a nice shot at a stage win against this field.
José Goncalvez, Carlos Barbero, Maximiliano Richeze, Daniele Bennati are others with a chance at Stage 12 success.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Kristian Sbaragli | 3. José Joaquín Rojas
