Tag: Vuelta a España

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Andorra la Valle › Cortals d’Encamp – 138km

The Vuelta a España visits Andorra for Stage 11, and some are calling it the hardest Vuelta stage ever. I haven’t reviewed every Vuelta stage since 1935 to really get a clear, definitive sense of whether that’s true, but it’s certainly going to be really, really hard.

It’s actually a very short stage at just 138km, and none of the climbs are longer than 12km. It’s the steepness and unceasing nature of the climbs that makes this stage such a challenge: from the moment they leave the start line until they cross the finish line, the riders will be ascending vicious uphill gradients or flying down harrowing descents.

The first half of the stage is composed of a trio of Cat. 1s, all of them followed by technical, steep downhills. Then comes the special-category Collada de la Gallina, 11.7km at 8.5%, after which the pack will descend on a gradient about as steep as the one they just climbed.

That quartet of brutal tests would be enough for most mountain stages, but the Vuelta’s 11th stage concludes with a leg-breaking one-two punch. First it’s the Cat. 2 Alto de la Comella, 4km at a whopping 9.5%, and after a quick descent it’s an uncategorized uphill run into the Cat. 1 finishing climb.

Stage 11 finally comes to an end atop the Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp, 8.7km at a 9.1% average gradient.

The Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp is a pretty regular climb—but it’s 8.7km at an average of 9.1%. Taking on two climbs of over 9% in such quick succession after such a tough day will probably see several big names see their GC campaigns go up in flames—there is just no way that everyone makes it up super-steep gradients unscathed.

On such a short stage, the pace is going to be high. In terms of trying to predict who will come out on top on this brutal day in Andorra, it’s already hard enough drawing conclusions from the earlier climbing stages in the race (which really can’t compare to this one), but the fact that this profile is pretty breakaway-friendly will further complicate things. However, this early queen stage will be a good opportunity for anyone who is feeling strong to make a huge statement in the GC fight, so we could see the top favorites testing each other early, and that will make it tough for a breakaway (as will the brutal finishing climb). That being the case, I see the top GC riders as better stage candidates than any individual breakaway candidates, especially since none of the long-range specialists have really established themselves just yet in this Vuelta.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7 and among the strongest on Stage 9. I’d like his chances better if Vincenzo Nibali were still in the race, and if Mikel Landa were still a GC threat that could potentially go up the road and force others to chase, but Aru should still be a great pick for Stage 11. The final climb suits him well, brutally steep and long enough that he’ll really have a chance to launch a move from a little ways out as is his custom. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of his rivals were watching each other instead of him, giving him a chance to get up the road. The aforementioned Mikel Landa could have a chance as well if the team decides to let him go stagehunting.

Chris Froome did not look good on Stage 7 but came roaring back on Stage 9, suggesting that he’s starting to come around. This isn’t the sort of stage that screams Sky Train, but I think it’s sort of a misconception that Froome can only handle long, low-gradient climbs. He’s among the best in the world on the steep stuff, too, and he’s got more punch than people realize. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tapping out his own pace early on the final climb only to leave his rivals behind in the finale. Nicolas Roche and Mikel Nieve have looked strong as well, and Sky, a squad that seems to understanding how little benefit there is to be gained from riding in a group on this gradients, will probably green light attacks if either is feeling good.

36-years-old or no, Joaquím Rodríguez has looked unflappable thus far in the Vuelta. He’s played things far more conservatively than expected, but he has also managed to stay right up there on all the important stages in the race. This stage might be a little too hard for the Spanish veteran, but if he can survive until the finale he’ll have a great place to go on the move. He’s a public proponent of Andorran cycling, and will be highly motivated to get something out of this one.

Nairo Quintana suffered a bit in the heat in the first week, but the Vuelta a España is entering cooler territory—and Quintana appears to be heating up. He’ll appreciate the consistently high gradients. Meanwhile, teammate Alejandro Valverde did not look quite as strong on Stage 9 as he had earlier in the week, so it could be Quintana’s time to make a statement.

Rafal Majka finished 5th on Stage 9 and probably has some intention of getting active here on Stage 11. While this profile will be a challenge, he should be fresher than many of the top climbers in the race, having ridden the Tour as a domestique and stagehunter instead of as a GC contender.

As amazing as Tom Dumoulin has been, I have a hard time seeing him staying in touch with the big climbing favorites on Stage 11. He can’t be ruled out, as he has defied expectation so far, but it would be a huge surprise. Esteban Chaves, on the other hand, should actually be pretty well-suited to the finishing climb, if he can recover from a bad day on Stage 9. Domenico Pozzovivo hasn’t been stellar in the Vuelta just yet, but if he can work his way into shape he should be able to get into the mix on this stage.

If the favorites are hesitant to put each other under pressure on this brutal stage, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see someone sneak clear and win this stage from a breakaway. Stage 11 will have huge implications for the King of the Mountains Classification, so anyone with long-term KOM aspirations would do well to jump into the move.

We don’t have much to go on yet in terms of clear markers of climbing form from the long-ranges specialists, but Samuel Sánchez, Cyril Gautier, Jerome Cousin, Omar Fraile, José Goncalvez, Fabio Duarte, Rodolfo Torres, Daniel Navarro, Bart De Clercq, Gianluca Brambilla, Pierre Rolland, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all on the long list of riders with potential to play a role from afar on Stage 11.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquím Rodríguez | 3. Nairo Quintana

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11.

September 1, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part II

Episode 25: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part II
The 2015 Vuelta has finally reached its first rest day, giving the riders a chance to catch their breath, and the Recon Ride a chance to take stock of the race so far.

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Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman try to make sense of the craziness of the Vuelta a España, and look ahead to what should be a thrilling next six stages in Spain.

Photo by Alcalaina (CC).

September 1, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Torrevieja › Benitatxell – 168.3km

The Vuelta takes on another GC-oriented stage in its ninth day. Most of the relatively short stage is flat, but things get a bit more difficult in the final 50km. A Cat. 2 trip up the Alto de Puig Llorenca comes first, 3.3km at a steep 8.9%. Then comes a steep descent, followed by a more gentle stretch of downhill that extends for over 20km to the intermediate sprint at kilometer 155. Afterward comes a small uncategorized bump, another steep descent, and then the second trip up the Puig Llorenca, from a different side this time. The average gradient is again 8.9%, but it’s a 4.1km journey to the finish line at the top. A particularly brutal stretch of 19% awaits right in the middle of the climb, and the final few hundred meters hit the double digits again.

At just 4.1 kilometers long, the finishing climb is not exactly the Stelvio, but its vicious gradients will make for an explosive challenge. Now that Stage 7 has offered a glimpse of what’s what in this GC showdown, the stronger riders could seize the opportunity to put their rivals into the red zone on the extreme slope.

After a challenging, hot first week, and with an escapee-friendly profile, Stage 9 could appeal to the breakaway specialists. The usual favorites among the GC men haven’t exactly shown a great deal of interest in fighting for stage wins. However, none of the marquee climbers have fallen too far out of contention just yet in this Vuelta, and it will take a pretty strong group to survive if the peloton does ramp up the pace in preparation for the final climb, so it’s hard to see any individual breakaway candidates as top favorites over the heavy hitters in the red jersey battle.

The short but brutally steep climb should suit Joaquim Rodríguez. Based on his skillset, he has to be seen as a favorite. However, Rodríguez has been very conservative so far in the race, and that makes it harder to view him as anything close to a consensus top pick for the stage. He can’t expect to hesitate his way to a stage win, or a Vuelta win for that matter. If he goes on the move, he’ll be deadly. The same is true for Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7, opening up a significant gap on his rivals when he launched his move on the final climb. Unlike Rodríguez, he took risks on that stage, and he might be looking to do so again here. This climb doesn’t suit him all that well compared to a few of the extremely explosive climbers on the startlist, but I think he’s strong enough to win anyway. Mikel Landa makes for a fine alternative for Astana.

Esteban Chaves has shown already in this Vuelta that this sort of climb suits him well. Getting into the second week of the race, Chaves is entering unknown territory, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet, and he could find himself in the mix again on Stage 9.

Alejandro Valverde has looked strong so far in the Vuelta, but maybe not at peak form. He also isn’t particularly keen on jumping clear of the pack, which he’ll probably need to do to win this stage. Still he’s always a danger, as is Nairo Quintana, who could light up this race at any minute once he starts getting back to his best.

Domenico Pozzovivo should find the terrain to his liking, and after a slow start he looks to be getting stronger. Unlike most of the other red jersey hopefuls, Pozzovivo doesn’t have a Grand Tour in his legs, and could find himself feeling a lot fresher than his rivals. He also might get a bit of leeway if he goes on the attack, as the likes of Movistar and Katusha look at each other instead of anyone else.

Nicolas Roche will find this gradient extreme, but he has looked good so far, as has Sky teammate Mikel Nieve. I’m not ready to write Chris Froome off yet either, though I still probably won’t write him off even if he loses ground on this stage, for that matter, as I think he’s riding himself back into form at the moment.

Rafal Majka, Samuel Sánchez, and Louis Meintjes are others to watch on the final climb.

If the GC favorites don’t feel like putting their teams to work chasing down escapees, Pello Bilbao, Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Gianluca Brambilla, Alessandro De Marchi, Bart De Clercq, Daniel Navarro, and Cyril Gautier are among the many riders who could find success in the early break or with a late strike.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 9. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 29, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia – 182.5km

The Vuelta’s eighth stage involves far more downhill kilometers than uphill kilometers, but a twice-ascended climb in the latter half of the day will still likely have an impact.

The first 110 kilometers of Stage 8 are almost all downhill as the Vuelta a España descends toward Murcia and the coast. Then comes a flatter stretch of about 30km before the peloton hits the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo, a tough Cat. 3 climb of 4.2 kilometers at a 7.5% average grade. From the top it’s a steep descent down to flatter roads, which wind right back to the foot of the Cresta del Gallo for a second trip up. Then comes another trip back down to the coast. From the point when things even out again at the town of Algezares, it’s just 13km to the finish line.

On the whole, Stage 8 does not involve all that much climbing, but the placement of the climbs makes them hard to overlook. They’ll whittle down the pack significantly, and could also serve as a launching pad for a late attack. If the peloton comes into the finale in a compact group, the sprint will still be among a reduced field.

An in-form Peter Sagan would be a clear-cut favorite for this stage, but since he’s not completely at 100%, it’s a bit of a question mark as to whether he can survive the climbs and fight it out in a sprint. I still see him as the likeliest candidate for success, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dropped on the first or second trip up the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The big GC guns have been extremely conservative in this Vuelta so far, however, and a continued lack of action could help Sagan stay in touch.

John Degenkolb seems a little less likely to make it up and over the final climb, and even if he does he might be too gassed to fight for the win, though he can’t be counted out. Degenkolb is lacking in the form department right now but it would make sense for him to be working his way up to a peak with Worlds approaching, and at his best, Degenkolb would be a top favorite for this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and Caleb Ewan will both have to work very, very hard to hang on over the final climb, though both riders can count on being contenders if they make it to the finish in the lead group.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde shouldn’t have any trouble hanging on, and will likely feature in a potential reduced sprint, as he is among the fastest of the GC men. Teammate JJ Rojas is an excellent alternative, but team politics will be the biggest obstacle for him to overcome: he doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself. He may be faster than Valverde in a sprint, but multiple stages in the Volta a Catalunya showed that Movistar isn’t afraid to ask Rojas to brake and let Valverde cross the line first if necessary.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez would be a great candidate for success with a late attack on the climb if he were showing any interest whatsoever in being active in this Vuelta, but he’s been disappointingly quiet so far in the race. Daniel Moreno may be the stronger stage favorite, as he’s handy in a reduced sprint.

Daniel Martin has the punch to launch a late attack and the fast finish to contend in a sprint. The same is true for Tom Dumoulin, who has looked incredible in the first week of the Vuelta. Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sánchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Carlos Barbero, Jose Goncalvez, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Jasper Stuyven, Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, and Tosh Van Der Sande are others with potential in this finish.

With a finale that isn’t all that well-tailored to the pure sprinters, the breakaway will have its chance at making it all the way on Stage 8. Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Adam Hansen, Cyril Gautier, and Alessandro De Marchi are among the many riders who could thrive from a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 28, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Jódar › La Alpujarra – 191.1km

The first Cat. 1 summit finish of the 2015 Vuelta awaits on Stage 7. Like Thursday’s stage to Cazorla, Friday’s stage will put the peloton through another long day of rolling hills, but the finishing climb on Stage 7 is considerably more challenging.

For the first 170 kilometers of the day, the road takes on successive stretches of gradual climbs and gradual descents, with a single 9km Cat. 3 the most challenging of the many minor climb along the route. The final 20 kilometers of the stage, however, will offer a real test of uphill strength.

At around kilometer 170, the route angles upwards towards the official start of the Cat. 1 summit finish, the 18.7km Alto Capileira. The climb has an average gradient of 5%, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. The first 6 kilometers are a bit steeper than that average, and then the road flattens out for about 4km, and then it kicks up again for the rest of the way to the line. The final 9km angle upward at closer to 7%, with a particularly steep section near the finish of about 14%.

The Alto de Capileira will be hard enough to put the GC favorites to the test, with the irregular nature of the climb adding to the difficulty. Whether or not the red jersey hopefuls will be doing battle for the stage win as well as for positions on the overall leaderboard is another matter—the profile will be an appealing one for the breakaway. However, it will take a talented group to stay clear on such a tough day, and most of the top climbers in the Vuelta are still in relatively close GC contention, limiting the number of legitimate candidates for long-range success. I like the chances of the GC riders this early in the race.

Movistar’s two-pronged attack won’t be easy for anyone to counter. Alejandro Valverde has not been particularly aggressive so far in this race, relying on his fast finish to take his stage victory, but he has nevertheless looked strong. He knows the area, he is very motivated to build on his early advantage in the GC battle, and he can win with an attack or in a reduced sprint at the top of the climb if there is no separation at the line. Nairo Quintana may be more of a foil than anything right now. Obviously the two-time Tour de France runner-up is a major threat to win any stage with this sort of finish, but he has looked slightly less than 100% at this point in the race, and in the heat of southern Spain. He’s a danger, but more than anything his presence may boost Valverde’s chances.

A week ago I saw Fabio Aru as the favorite for Stage 7, but now I’m not sure how to judge his chances. He should be fresher than the rest of the top GC contenders in the Vuelta who are coming off the Tour de France, he showed nice form in the Tour of Poland, and this stage suits him perfectly, with a nice late launching pad that looks tailored to his skillset. However, he hasn’t looked quite as strong as expected so far in this race, so I can’t quite name him the outright favorite. Still, he’s an obvious candidate for success and it wouldn’t be any surprise if he attacked for the win. Mikel Landa could do damage as well on this climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another rider whose form is hard to judge right now—he has missed out on several opportunities so far in this Vuelta, letting others making successful attacks on stages that have seemed to suit him. But that may simply be because Rodríguez is focused entirely on the overall title, unwilling to risk his GC position in the hunt for stage wins. This stage certainly suits him. Daniel Moreno is another option for Katusha.

Chris Froome has quietly ridden very well in the early goings at the Vuelta. For whatever reason, many observers underrate Froome’s peak climbing ability, and I think some are underestimating him here. He’s not at his peak, of course, but if he’s even close to it he’s capable of leaving the entire peloton in the dust. Froome loves to make an early statement, and this is a prime opportunity to do just that on a long climb that suits him well. Nicolas Roche and Sergio Henao are other strong options for Sky.

Esteban Chaves has been brilliant so far in this Vuelta, and while both of his stage victories have involved an element of tactical boneheadedness from the likes of Katusha and Co., they wouldn’t have happened if Chaves weren’t on blazing form. This is a very long climb for the young Colombian to undertake but the likes of Valverde and Rodríguez have shown little interest in chasing him so far and that could be to his advantage yet again if he can survive the long road to the top and make a late strike.

Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka are others who could be in the mix for Stage 7.

As suggested for Stage 6, keep an eye on Caja Rural and Team Colombia for the likely breakaway contenders on Stage 7. It will be a tall order to hold off the pack on the Alto Capileira, but Pello Bilbao and Fabio Duarte are among those with a shot. Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Samuel Sánchez are other riders who could have success with a long-range strike.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 27, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Córdoba › Sierra de Cazorla – 200.3km

The Vuelta peloton will be tested with another uphill finish on Stage 6, and it should be a real challenge despite there being just two Cat. 3 climbs the menu. It’s not a short stage at 200 kilometers and the finale will be a difficult one.

After 130 kilometers of rolling hills comes the first categorized climb of 12km at an average gradient of a little under 4%. It’s not much but it will put some fatigue into the legs. Following a few more rollers and a descent comes the long climb to the finish line, which will last a lot longer than the official categorized finale. Apart from a few moments where the road evens out, it’s uphill from a little more than 20km out all the way to the line, at an average gradient close to 2% for the entirety of the long uphill stretch, which gets more difficult at the end.

The categorized finale itself starts at around 3km to go, and the climb has an average gradient of well over 6%, with a double digit stretch about a kilometer in that could serve as a nice launching pad for an enterprising climber. The road winds left and right a few times up toward the finish, where the gradient is closer to 7%.

The breakaway has a chance at success on this profile but this early in the race there are plenty of potential contenders still in the GC hunt who should be able to reel in any long-range hopefuls on the lengthy climb toward the finish. Expect the red jersey favorites to go toe to toe in the finale, even if it is only a Cat. 3 ascent.

The length of the stage and the fact that the last 20km are almost all uphill should whittle down the peloton and leave only the specialists in contention. Katusha has two. Joaquim Rodríguez has missed out on more than one excellent opportunity already in this race, but he has looked strong enough from a form standpoint and this will be another chance for him to shine. He needs to be aggressive, but he’ll be heard to catch if he does launch an attack in the finale. Daniel Moreno is a strong alternative, especially if the pack is still together near the top of the climb.

Alejandro Valverde already has one stage win in the Vuelta and has a nice opportunity to take a second (and the accompanying bonus seconds) on Stage 6. He can follow attacks rather than making them because he has so a strong sprint, and that makes him dangerous. Nairo Quintana could be interested in going on the move as well.

Dan Martin isn’t always the best at positioning himself for a timely strike, but if he can work that out he’s got the chops to make a move in this finale. Like Purito, he hasn’t quite delivered on the two stages that have seemed to suit him so far in the Vuelta a España, but form doesn’t appear to be an issue.

Fabio Aru has not been the strongest yet in this race but he has the team to set him up for a late strike and explosiveness to execute, if he’s feeling strong. The same is true for teammate Mikel Landa.

Nicolas Roche has been Sky’s strongest performer so far and could get active again, though don’t count out Chris Froome. He’s quietly looking pretty strong in this race, and he always likes an early opportunity to make a show of authority in a Grand Tour. Sergio Henao is another strong option for the black and blue squad.

Rafal Majka, Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Bart de Clercq, and Domenico Pozzovivo are other riders to keep an eye on for Stage 6. Tom Dumoulin will have his work cut out for him defending his red jersey on the steep inclines of the final few kilometers.

If the big GC favorites and their support riders spend too much time looking at each other, the opportunists will have a chance at long-range success, either from the early break or with a late move once the initial break has been swept up. The list of potential candidates for the victory in that scenario includes practically every rider on Team Colombia and Caja Rural. Pello Bilbao and Rodolfo Torres stand out as particularly strong options.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 26, 2015