Episode 23: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part I
The Recon Ride dives into the challenging parcours and the excellent startlist of the 2015 Vuelta a España.
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The final Grand Tour of 2015 is about to get underway, and the collection of talents preparing to make the start in Spain is impressive. Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman team up to present the first of three Recon Ride Vuelta episodes.
Photo by Andy Schumacher (CC).
The Vuelta is always an important opportunity for riders who have missed out on results in the early part of the season to take one final shot at Grand Tour success, but a particularly crash-heavy 2014 made this year’s Vuelta startlist one of the strongest in years. The late-season showdown, with many of the sport’s top talents in the mix, was a nice platform for several riders to make strong statements to close out the Grand Tour calendar.
Alberto Contador has now ridden in the Vuelta three times in his career, and he’s won the overall victory each time. That is a stunning achievement in and of itself; this year’s victory is an especially impressive feat given the powerhouse startlist. Contador was untouchable in the mountains, and he was very good in the time trial as well. He also rode a tactically brilliant race; he had the weakest team of any of the top GC contenders, and it didn’t seem to matter at all. He followed the attacks he needed to follow, and didn’t waste energy with others. He was robbed of a chance to prove his strength at the 2014 Tour de France, but this ride at the 2014 Vuelta will be a warning to his rivals that he’ll be very hard to beat in the 2015 Tour.
Had Chris Froome continued throughout the race in the same shape that saw him lose a chunk of time to even Alejandro Valverde in a long, mostly flat time trial, it might have been cause for concern, but he ended the race very, very strong. It’s a shame it took him some time to get back to his best (it would have made for a better, more competitive race if he were able to put in the sort of time trial we know he’s capable of) but his main goal in starting this race was to ride well in a Grand Tour before the season’s end, and he absolutely did that. He may not have been able to touch Contador after falling behind early, but he should still come out of the race with confidence for 2015.
Nairo Quintana‘s abandonment following a bad crash took some excitement out of the race. Hopefully he will recover quickly for 2015; the strength he showed early this season will make him a top favorite in the Tour next year. Teammate Alejandro Valverde wasn’t able to threaten for the Vuelta overall once Contador took control, but that can’t take away from the amazing year he’s had. Among his many huge successes so far are victories in La Fleche Wallonne and San Sebastian, a Vuelta stage win, and Top 5s in the Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta overall. His big ride in Spain came after a difficult Tour, to boot; it’s not easy to land a podium in the Vuelta on the heels of a three-week race finished less than a month before the start.
Joaquim Rodriguez, in 4th, never managed to contend, and he didn’t win a stage despite the presence of a very strong team. It was a disappointing ride given the expectations going in. His inability to match rival Valverde will be most frustrating for him. After dropping out of the Giro, Purito rode the Tour as a means of preparing for this race; it was an odd choice, and I’m not sure it was the right one.
Fabio Aru, on the other hand, should be thrilled with a 5th place result. He’s only 24, and he has now landed two Grand Tour Top 5s and three Grand Tour stage wins in the same year! It’s not easy to perform so well across two three-week races in one season, especially not as his young age. He made his “arrival” at the Giro, but I find his Vuelta a España, against so much top-tier talent and coming with plenty of race mileage in his legs already this year, just as impressive.
I’m not sure what Dan Martin‘s Grand Tour racing future holds because he clearly prefers the shorter events, but I’ve been saying for a while now that the has the talent to put in a Top 10 in a three-week event, if he could only avoid crashing or getting sick. It was good to see him finally deliver (7th overall), and against an elite startlist too. Warren Barguil, in 8th, also took a big career step. We knew he could climb, but could he perform at a high level across three weeks? It seems the answer is yes. He’s only 22.
Damiano Caruso was one of the biggest surprises of the race. He had never had a Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour stage race coming into the Vuelta a España, and he picked up his first in a Grand Tour. BMC got a good one for next year.
Belkin will wish they’d gotten a bigger GC result out of this Vuelta, but they should be pleased with the performance of Robert Gesink, who was on track to land well inside the GC Top 10 before leaving the race for personal reasons. After a very tough start to the year and a long break spent recovering from a heart problem, that’s a very encouraging sign for Gesink.
John Degenkolb dominated the sprints of the 2012 Vuelta, and his 2014 return to the race was a triumphant one. His four stage wins were impressive, especially the victory on Stage 5 over the very speedy Nacer Bouhanni. Degenkolb’s Points Classification victory may be even more impressive: it’s not easy for a sprinter to win the points jersey in the Vuelta, especially when versatile Alejandro Valverde is on the startlist, but Degenkolb was not to be denied once it became clear that green was within his reach. He missed out on a few opportunities at this year’s Tour due to an early injury in that race, but with the sort of speed he showed in Spain, he should be on track for plenty more success in the very near future, with the upcoming World Championships as a major target and the 2015 classics season and Tour beyond.
Alessandro De Marchi was another stagehunter who found success, picking up his first Grand Tour stage win after coming close several times in the past. He is emerging as one of the top breakaway talents in the peloton, showing a lot of strength when riding uphill on his own. He was King of the Mountains at the Dauphine in June, and riding off the front like he has been this year, a Grand Tour KOM jersey could be in his future.
Jasper Stuyven, who finished with six stage Top 10s, may not have come particularly close to any victories, but his consistent presence near the front on a variety of profiles bodes well for the future: he’s only 22. Yet another rising young talent for Belgium, who just announced a Worlds squad loaded with firepower.
Speaking of Worlds, it’s right around the corner! Stay tuned for VeloHuman previews of the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Ramón Peña.
The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.
The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.
The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.
One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.
Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.
Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.
Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.
Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.
1. Chris Froome | 2. Adriano Malori | 3. Kristof Vandewalle
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.
-Dane Cash
Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.
The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.
Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.
Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.
Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.
Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.
Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.
It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.
1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!
-Dane Cash
Following a Stage 18 with a pair of Cat. 2s as the only categorized climbs on the menu (Fabio Aru landed the victory) comes Stage 19, where two Cat. 2s are, again, the only categorized climbs on the profile. Their placement will make for a different sort of race, however. One comes right in the middle of the stage, and the other is crested with 15 kilometers still to go before the finish line. It could be a launching pad for attacks, but only a very strong move will have a chance of surviving all the way to the line. Following that final categorized ascent comes a fast descent, a few kilometers of flat, a slightly bumpy stretch, and then a flat final kilometer.
The parcours will be too much for the pure sprinters to handle, but probably not difficult enough to offer much of an opportunity for a GC shakeup. That makes Stage 19 an excellent opportunity for the morning breakaway to get the victory, which of course means that the list of potential protagonists for stage success is quite long and varied.
Orica-GreenEdge is likely to be the biggest challenge that anyone who gets up the road early will have to face. An impending mountain stage and the final time trial will temper any motivation the GC teams might have had to put in a lot of work, and that will give the early aggressors a big advantage. OGE, however, will want to control the race, in an effort to bring about a sprint and one final chance for Michael Matthews to pick up another win in this Vuelta a España. If the morning move is reeled in, the Australian squad will have probably played a major role in making the catch. The final climb is hard, but Matthews has amazing climbing legs right now, and if it is indeed the main bunch that is contesting this stage victory, he’ll be the top favorite for what will likely be a reduced sprint finish. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might have a chance of holding on in that scenario but it will be a lot to ask. Fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde and Wilco Kelderman may be more likely challengers for stage honors if the breakaway is swallowed up before the end of the day. Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, and Fabio Aru are others likely to be riding in (what’s left of) the main peloton who have the strength to survive the final climb and then get involved in a reduced sprint.
Philippe Gilbert is one of several versatile, punchy riders who could be looking to get into a long-distance move on Stage 19. If Gilbert sees an opportunity to break free from the pack early, he’ll be very dangerous in this sort of finale. Then again, he’ll be dangerous if he decides to stay with the pack as well. The ability to win in either scenario makes him a strong contender here.
Luis Leon Sanchez, who, unless he abandons the race for some reason, will win the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains classification, is another rider who could find success from afar here. He’s ridden well in the hunt for the KOM jersey so far, and he’d love to add a stage win to go with that achievement. Strong in a solo move or in a sprint, he’s well-suited to this profile.
So is Ryder Hesjedal, who already has a breakaway stage win in this Vuelta. Should he get into the day’s move, he’ll be a top contender with this very steep late challenge and with the great form he has shown in the past few days.
Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev has been out front in this race before, and, riding for a team that really should have won something in this race already, he’ll be motivated to put it on the line as opportunities for victories are running out. He’s very dangerous in a reduced sprint.
Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Lampre-Merida’s Filippo Pozzato and Damiano Cunego, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko and Mikel Landa, OGE’s Adam Yates, Trek’s Fabio Felline and Jasper Stuyven, OPQS’s Wout Poels, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, and Europcar’s Romain Sicard are others who could be in the mix should the morning breakaway go the distance on Stage 19.
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Luis Leon Sanchez
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 19, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec preview and an interview with one of the top favorites for that race are already up!
-Dane Cash
Following John Degenkolb’s strong win on the Vuelta’s final real sprinters’ day, Stage 18 will bring to the fore those who prefer charging up a gradient. Very short at only 157 kilometers, Stage 18 nevertheless packs a punch in the finale. After they’ve spent most of the day riding on relatively flat roads, the peloton will have to climb the Alto Monte Castrove twice to close out the day. It’s short, but its 7% average grade will do plenty of damage, and with the finish line coming just over a half a kilometer after the riders crest the climb for the second time, only those with punchy climbing legs will have a chance at being positioned to contest the stage victory.
Since this finish is too difficult for the pure sprinters’ teams to drive the pace, the breakaway will have a chance at staying away on Stage 18, but if Movistar or Katusha decide to keep things on a short leash so that their GC men might have a shot at the bonus seconds on offer, it will be hard for anyone to succeed for afar here. Katusha and Movistar should be keen on controlling this one, because Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde have to be among the top favorites for stage honors. The narrow uphill road of the final climb suits Purito quite well, and it’s hard to imagine him not delivering an all-out attack in the waning moments of the race. Daniel Moreno has just the right skillset for the Alto Monte Castrove as well. Meanwhile, Alejandro Valverde packs quite the uphill kick himself, and he also has the strongest sprint among the riders in the GC Top 5. If he can hold the wheels of the attackers in the last ascent, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to nab a victory and valuable bonus seconds on Stage 18.
Dan Martin has already come close to a stage victory in this race using his top-notch punchy climbing legs, and he has maintained a high level of form even into the third week. He has a great chance here to finally pick up the stage win he’s been hunting. Fabio Aru may not have the Ardennes resume that Purito, Valverde, Moreno, and Martin have, but he is an elite climber who has a knack for exploding out of the pack on the very steep stuff.
Chris Froome is getting stronger every day in this race, and if he can drop his rivals with an attack from far enough out, he’ll have a shot at victory on Stage 18 even on a short climb like this. Race leader Alberto Contador, on the other hand, doesn’t need to attack, and therefore will have the luxury of being able to follow the wheels he wants to follow. That puts him into a good position to pick up another win in much the same way he won Stage 16, when he allowed Chris Froome to drive the pace until an opportunity to fly past presented itself.
Wilco Kelderman hasn’t had quite the level of form in this Vuelta a España that he displayed in the Giro, but he has a very fast finish and is a dangerous rider in a post-climb sprint. Samuel Sanchez, Warren Barguil, and Daniel Navarro are others on the fringes of the GC leaderboard who could hope to get involved in this sort of finish, while Philippe Gilbert and Michael Matthews will hope that they can hang with the GC-oriented climbers on the incline and outgun them in the final few moments for stage honors.
Should a long-distance move take the day, Ryder Hesjedal, Alessandro De Marchi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Adam Yates, Wout Poels, Alexey Lutsenko, Louis Meintjes, and Alexandr Kolobnov are among those who should be considered good candidates for success on a profile that turns hilly quite suddenly in the last 30 kilometers.
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodriguez | 3. Dan Martin
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18, and there is plenty of GP Quebec and GP Montreal coverage coming very soon as well, so stay tuned!
-Dane Cash