VeloHuman

Tag: Wilco Kelderman

  • Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Stage 12 Profile

    Stage 12 (ITT): Barbaresco > Barolo – 41.9 km

    Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.

    The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.

    Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.

    Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.

    Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.

    Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans

    The Stage 13 preview will be up a few hours after the final rider crosses the line on Stage 12. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

    -Dane Cash

  • Eneco Tour 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Eneco

    All-rounder Roundup

    The weeklong drought of WorldTour racing since Weening took the Tour de Pologne in grand style with a strong final stage performance is finally over. The Eneco Tour is here, and WT cycling is finally returning to the territory of the spring classics, with the occasional crosswinds, cobbles, and short but steep climbs to keep things interesting.

    In years past, this has been a race whose outcome has been almost wholly determined by time trialing prowess, with one or two stages against the clock providing the brunt of the time gaps, and a number of flat stages in between. Organizers have gradually provided more and more bumps in the road to liven up the GC, with last year seeing an ascent of the Muur van Geraardsbergen (formerly of the Tour of Flanders) in the queen stage, a climb that shook up the leaderboard and gave Lars Boom the victory and Niki Terpstra a podium position.

    This year’s Eneco Tour is the hilliest yet. Stages 1-4 will be for the sprinters (though hills on Stage 2 might reduce the pack a bit), but then the GC battle will heat up on some difficult roads. The Stage 5 time trial is short — 13.2 km — but technical and lumpy, too. Stage 6 combines the roads of Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and Stage 7 returns to Geraardsbergen. Last year’s GC was dominated by time trialists who were capable of staying with the pack on the tougher classics-style climbs. This year’s hills should be even more selective in terms of the overall leaderboard. The winner will be a true all-rounder, who can possibly nab bonus seconds at the finish lines, produce a top-tier time against the clock, and climb at a high level.

    Last year’s winner, Lars Boom, is a capable climber, a top-notch time trialist, and a good enough handler to take on the technical course. He’s likely to repeat a high level performance; however, his results this year have not been as impressive as he might have liked; he didn’t make the podium in the Dutch time trial championships, his classics campaign was disappointing, and he did not produce any remarkable results in the Tour de France. Moreover, the hilly route may be a bit too much to ask from Boom to expect an outright victory. A podium may be doable, especially with the support of a strong team Belkin. The Dutch squad may have another rider better suited to this year’s edition, coming off a strong win in the Tour of Denmark: Wilco Kelderman. Kelderman is already sporting top 10s in this year’s Tour Down Under and Tour de Romandie, and he is targeting this race. He is a good climber who should be able to hang on when the road goes up: the 22-year old could be primed for a high finish.

    Serious competition could come from another Benelux squad, Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Sylvain Chavanel was second last year and also in 2009. His 11th in the San Sebastián might not have been as great as he’d hoped for, but he managed to hang with a group of strong-climbing chasers to show good form after a disappointing Tour de France. He won the French time trial championship in June and, despite lacking a signature World Tour win this year, he’s managed a number of top 10s in stage races and classics in 2013. With help from a team well-suited to succeed low country crosswinds, Chavanel should be able to hang on the hilly stages, even if he loses a few seconds to climbing specialists atop summit finishes, and he’s sure to place highly in the time trial. Teammate Niki Terpstra, 3rd last year, may find the parcours a bit trying, but he’s another strong bet for a good finish.

    Bradley Wiggins leads Team Sky at the Eneco Tour. At his best, he’s certainly able to hang on on these types of climbs, and he’s one of the strongest time trialists in the world (and one who thrives with a hill or two in a race against the clock). He showed last week in the Tour de Pologne that he’s still capable of dominating the discipline, winning by nearly a minute over Fabian Cancellara. The big question is, of course, whether or not the 2012 Tour de France winner is targeting the General Classification here. His big target for the year is the World Championship time trial, and he will surely look to outshine the competition on the Eneco Tour’s fifth stage. Only time will tell whether he plans on fighting for GC. If so, it’s hard to look past his combination of skills.

    Orica GreenEdge is primed to get plenty of sponsorship time on camera with a strong team of all-rounders on the start list. Svein Tuft has done well in past Eneco Tours and figures to at least place highly in the Stage 5 TT. However, last year’s hills proved his undoing, and this year’s parcours will not do him any favors. Teammates Pieter Weening (fresh of a Tour de Pologne win) and Sebastian Langeveld (top 10s this year in Paris-Roubaix, the Tour of Flanders, and E3 Harelbeke, and 9th in last year’s Eneco Tour) are maybe stronger candidates for GC this year.

    lieuwe

    Lieuwe Westra won the Dutch TT championship and he’s got the package of all-rounder skills necessary to finish highly. Unfortunately, Westra was forced to pull out of the Tour de France due to some health problems. He seems to be recovered, but the question marks remain, enough to keep him out of my podium predictions. If he’s healthy, I can see him winning the whole thing, and Dutch squad Vacansoleil would sure love to have something to be proud of this year, currently sitting at dead last in the UCI team rankings.

    RadioShack-Leopard sends Belgians Jan Bakelants and Stijn Devolder to the Eneco Tour. Devolder’s past few years have been frustrating in terms of results, but he did just win the Belgian national championship race. Bakelants was third in that championship race, and just took a stage in the Tour de France in impressive style. He was 10th in last year’s edition of the Eneco Tour, and a capable all-rounder. A repeat top 10 might be doable, as Bakelants is the type of rider who should not be too troubled by some added inclines. Maxime Monfort of RadioShack is a bit of a dark horse to keep in mind: it’s unclear whether he’s targeting the Eneco Tour, but he’s a Belgian with strong all-rounder capabilities who had a good under the radar Tour de France (14th overall).

    Philippe Gilbert has had an immensely disappointing season in the rainbow jersey, but top 10s in Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a 2nd place at Brabantse Pijl suggest that he’s not totally off-form in 2013. He’s also not a bad time trialist when he puts his mind to it, nabbing second at the Belgian champs this year. The final two stages fit the skill set of the Boar of the Ardennes, and he’s was champing at the bit all Tour while riding in support of disappointing teammates. A stage win would be completely within reasonable expectations of the Gilbert of 2011 (when he was 2nd overall and took a stage), but it is unclear whether he’s got much of that old self left. Still, he deserves a mention not just as a stage win contender, but as a possible GC threat, with the support of a strong team BMC.

    Argos-Shimano’s stable of sprinter talent shouldn’t make you forget young Tom Dumoulin, who scored podium positions in the Dutch road and TT champs. He is targeting the Eneco Tour and should be up to the variety of challenges the weeklong race poses. I tend to use a “Watch Out For” tag to tip young up-and-comers or dark horses who could be boom or bust type picks, but I really think Dumoulin will be in the top 10 overall, so he merits mention as more than just a sleeper pick.

    Moreno Moser leads the Cannondale attack after a top 10 in San Sebastián and a great showing on the double d’Huez ascent in the Tour. He’s only 22 so the word “inconsistent” probably isn’t appropriate, but his results have been a bit hard to predict. He lacks much in the way of time trialing results in his young career, but this one is a short one, with a pair of lumps. Moser could do well in the GC if he can deliver on the hard uphill finishes.

    Simon Spilak leads Katusha, and he certainly has the climbing and TTing chops to compete. Weeklong stage races have been his forte. However, after a strong start to the season, Spilak’s form is in question this August.

    Stagehunters

    The sprinting and pure time trailing talent in attendance at the Eneco Tour should make for some exciting individual stage finishes. Headlining the fast men are Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Theo Bos and Mark Renshaw of Belkin, Tyler Farrar, Yauheni Hutarovich, Danny van Poppel, Ben Swift, Gert Steegmans, Daniele Bennati, Arnaud Demare, Elia Viviani, Francisco Ventoso, JJ Rojas, and Daryl Impey could also feature in the bunch sprints.

    Contenders for the win in the time trial will also be numerous, with a number of pure TT stars in attendance beyond those riders who can TT and climb well enough for GC. Svein Tuft and Taylor Phinney headline the list of guys who might find the week as a whole too hilly, but who could perform highly in the time trial. Both have done well time trailing here before (and in GC, as well, though this year will likely prove too lumpy). Alex Dowsett, who won the first ITT at the Giro and took the national title in Britain, is also in attendance. Wiggins, mentioned above, might be interested in GC, but he is certainly interested in coming away with a win in Stage 5, and if I had to pick one name for the stage win, it would be his.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    General Classification Winner

    Sylvain Chavanel

    GC Podium

    Wilco Kelderman, Lars Boom

    Other Strong GC Contenders

    Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin, Philippe Gilbert, Lieuwe Westra, Moreno Moser

    Stages

    Stage 1: Koksijde > Ardooie | 175.3km | Flat

    Stage 2: Ardooie > Brussel | 176.9km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 3: Oosterhout › Schouwen-Duiveland | 187.3km | Flat

    Stage 4: Essen › Vlijmen | 169.6km | Flat

    Stage 5: Sittard-Geleen › Sittard-Geleen | 13.2 | ITT

    Stage 6: Riemst › Aywaille | 150km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 7: Tienen › Geraardsbergen | 208km | Medium Mountains

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Wouter de Bruijn and Georges Ménager.