Episode 48: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part II
The Recon Ride reviews the Tour’s first nine stages and looks ahead at what’s to come over the next week.
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The Tour de France is in full swing. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the state of affairs in the Tour so far and dig into the next few days of racing, which include some big mountains and a crucial time trial.
The last day of racing before the first rest day, Stage 9 should be a real GC showdown, especially since Stage 7 and 8 lacked much in the way of major time gaps. The profile certainly provides ample opportunity. There is very little flat along the road to Arcalis, with several uncategorized uphill stretches to go along with the many downhill kilometers.
The first four categorized climbs should serve to soften up the legs considerably. Then comes the final climb, an hors categorie challenge of 10.1km at 7.2%. Particularly in its position as the day’s fifth hard climb, the Arcalis will undoubtedly draw out attacks.
The up-and-down nature of this profile will have the breakers excited about their chances, but with the GC still so open I wouldn’t be surprised to the teams of the yellow jersey hopefuls keeping any long-range move on a short leash. As such, Stage 9 could come down to a battle among all the big GC stars.
Chris Froome remains my favorite for the tough mountain stages. Although he gained some time in Stage 8, it wasn’t much, and I think Froome is still hoping to deliver that early coup de grace for which he has become known. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen here. His team looked great Saturday.
Nairo Quintana remains the other obvious choice in the mountains. Sure, he sort of got caught sleeping in Stage 8, but he appeared to be climbing well and that’s what will matter on these gradients. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde can’t be counted out either.
On peak form Fabio Aru is a top pick here but he’s a bit of an unknown right now. Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, and Joaquím Rodríguez have nice potential among the GC men as well, particularly if it comes down to a small group late.
Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot could try to get back into the mix too after spending time in the breakaway Saturday—both are talented enough to win from the pack or the break, making them extra dangerous. The long list of other potential breakers includes Alberto Contador, Steve Cummings, Rubén Plaza, and Ilnur Zakarin.
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Richie Porte
With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.
If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.
Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.
Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.
And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.
1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Nairo Quintana
The first real climber’s stage of the Tour is here! Stage 7 is pretty straightforward: it’s all about the Cat. 1 Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and the ensuing descent to a slightly uphill finish.
The stage will certainly bring the climbers to the fore, but since the climb isn’t that challenging, I see the strong descenders and punchy finishers as having the best shot at winning the day.
Dan Martin certainly fits the bill. He’s looked good so far in the race and with his fast finish I think he can be a real threat here. His teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a danger man as well.
And while we’re on the subject of Ardennes-type riders, it’s certainly worth naming Alejandro Valverde, who would be my favorite here if he weren’t playing second fiddle to Nairo Quintana on GC. As it is, I still see Valverde with a good chance.
The same is true for Joaquím Rodríguez. This is a nice finish for him, and the stage in general could present a nice opportunity to try for a long-range attack.
The same goes for Vincenzo Nibali. I initially had him pegged as a top favorite for the stage before his first few days on Tour. He hasn’t been particularly impressive so far but this is still a profile that suits him.
Romain Bardet, Steve Cummings, Rui Costa, Rafal Majka, Tony Gallopin, Ilnur Zakarin, and, of course, any one of Quintana, Chris Froome, or Fabio Aru could deliver here as well.
1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez
One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.
The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.
Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.
In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel
Wednesday’s stage is one of the more unpredictable days in this Tour. The profile is hilly enough to put the sprinters out of contention, and it could spring an early breakaway or a late attack to success. The final 40km involve four categorized climbs and a uncategorized uphill finish that favors the puncheurs.
At first glance, a few days ago, I thought this would be breakaway day for sure, but the race situation may dictate otherwise. With Peter Sagan in the yellow jersey and GC teams that have looked interested in battling for every inch at the front of the bunch so far, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition.
Should the pack contest the finish, there are a few clear favorites. Sagan is one of them. The finish might actually favor punchier types better but Sagan has looked very impressive all season and it’s hard to put anything past him.
Julian Alaphilippe should like the look of the stage. The late climbs will thin out most of the faster finishers and the uphill finale will suit him very well. Etixx teammate Dan Martin has a shot too.
Alejandro Valverde is of course a potential stage winner with this finish, though it’s hard to say whether Movistar will want him pushing too hard to achieve his own goals.
The profile might be a tad too challenging for Michael Matthews, on the other hand, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. His teammate Simon Gerrans may like the parcours more.
Tony Gallopin is typically very strong on this sort of finish, especially with the succession of climbs at the end of the day. The same could be said for Greg Van Avermaet. Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema are others with a decent shot in a reduced sprint.
Stephen Cummings and Thomas De Gendt stand out as strong breakaway candidates for Stage 5. This early in the race, it’s hard to say who is gunning for the long-range moves, but those two are among the clear possible breakers on just about any stage. Simon Geschke and Sylvain Chavanel are also options.
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. Alejandro Valverde