Tag: WorldTour

Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Barcelona › Barcelona – 126.6 km

After yet another surprise stage winner on the sixth day of the race (Sergey Chernetskiy won from the breakaway), it’s fitting that the Volta a Catalunya should close out with an unpredictable Stage 7. The 126.6-kilometer route will take the peloton in and around Barcelona, the Catalonian capital, and the profile is punctuated by eight trips up the Alt de Montjuïc, a 2 kilometer ascent with a 5.7% average gradient. After each climb comes a winding descent that leads back into the foot of the next journey upward, except for the final one, which runs right down to the finish line.

The up-and-down nature of the second half of the stage makes this a terrific day for the breakaway riders; the pack will have a hard time controlling the race with so many tempo changes and twists and turns near the finish. The eight-climbs-of-the-Montjuïc finale was used in both of the past two editions of the Volta and breakaway riders took it both times. Still, things are so tight on the overall leaderboard, and that the bonus seconds on offer here will be enticing for those looking to take this race out of Richie Porte’s hands; in short, as hard as it will be to maintain a hold on this race, many strong teams in the peloton will be motivated to do so.

Should the breakaway make it three straight years of success, look for riders like Tejay van Garderen, Tom Danielson, Maciej Paterski, and Jonathan Hivert to try to get one more day of hard work out of their legs after already putting in a lot of mileage off the front already. Giampaolo Caruso, far enough behind on GC that he might be given a bit of freedom, could be a good rider to watch here as well, on a parcours that suits his strong kick. Samuel Sánchez is another rider who is great on the short climbs and outside of GC contention; BMC has been working hard to get as much out of this race as possible, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give Sánchez the green light to make a move if van Garderen is finally feeling a little winded after another difficult day. The stage also suits Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon, and Martin Elmiger.

Regardless of whether they’re fighting for stage honors, the GC riders will have their hands full here, with so much climbing and descending. If they do manage to reel in the breakaway and fight for the victory, an in-form Alejandro Valverde is again a good pick to win another day. Explosive Dan Martin and fast-finishing Rigoberto Urán and Wilco Kelderman are others on the GC leaderboard who are likely to battle it out here if it comes down to the overall race contenders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Giampaolo Caruso | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Cervera › Port Aventura – 194.1 km

Stage 5 of the Volta a Catalunya was yet another day of GC action, with Alejandro Valverde soloing to victory ahead of a select group of riders, but the profile of Stage 6 will have the sprinters finally hoping for a chance to make their mark on the race. The long, low-gradient Alt de Prades in the middle of the stage won’t be an easy jaunt for anyone, but with about 70 kilometers after the top of the climb until the beginning of the next categorized challenge, anyone who struggles on the Cat. 1 will have plenty of opportunity to get back into the mix. That next categorized challenge is a short Cat. 3 crested over 30 kilometers from the line. From there, it’s a fast downhill followed by about 20 km of flat.

The late climb and steep descent towards the end of the day will certainly entice the punchier riders in the bunch, but several sprinters made their way to Catalunya hoping to come away with WorldTour stage victories, and one has to think that after so many days escaping their fast-finishing grasps, those quick men will be gunning for this stage, where a relative dearth of climbs will give them a chance.

Still, some uphill ability will be required to come to the line fresh. Bryan Coquard, very fast in a pure sprint but also capable of going up and over the occasional climb, is the prime pick. With Pierre Rolland out of the GC picture, Europcar should be throwing their full weight behind Coquard now.

Luka Mezgec is another strong pick, also very fast in a pure sprint. Unlike Coquard, he’s won several WorldTour-level sprints in his career, and against the young up-and-comer (who does tend to have positioning issues), that experience could come in handy.

Julian Alaphilippe gets a mention practically every day, but he hasn’t delivered just yet. Still, he’ll be more capable of surviving the pressure of late attacks by the GC riders than most of the other quick men here. The same is true for JJ Rojas, but Movistar clearly isn’t done backing Alejandro Valverde in this race just yet.

Speaking of Valverde, he’s certainly a contender again on Stage 6, where the late ramp will offer him a chance to break up the race, or at least shed some sprinter weight. As usual, Dan Martin, Rigoberto Urán, and Wilco Kelderman are others to watch if the final lead group is reduced too much to feature any sprinters.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Julian Alaphilippe

-Dane Cash

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

March 27, 2015
Sagan’s Surprise Power Failure Leaves Stybar Following the Wrong Wheel in E3 Harelbeke Finale

When the gap between a dwindling E3 Harelbeke peloton and Peter Sagan, Geraint Thomas, and Zdenek Stybar had gone out to around one minute as the riders approached the finish line, it became clear that a victory in first Belgian Classic of the 2015 WorldTour would soon grace the palmares of one of the three riders up the road. One of them, Peter Sagan, had already won the race the year prior by outsprinting a small group of companions at the line, a group that included another member of the trio now fighting for this year’s honors, Geraint Thomas.

Given Sagan’s impressive array of abilities, it was only natural for the third member of the trio to be focusing on the Slovakian defending champion in the waning moments of this year’s race over a rider he’d beaten here last year. But Zdenek Stybar’s decision to mark Sagan at the 2015 E3 Harelbeke did not pay off. Geraint Thomas launched a powerful attack in the last few kilometers of the race, and Stybar immediately got on Sagan’s wheel thinking the younger rider would give chase—but Sagan was cooked, and he faded immediately, leaving Stybar to launch an unsuccessful attempt to bridge a gap that had now grown too far.

“I expected that Sagan would be a bit stronger, but he wasn’t,” Zdenek Stybar said after the race.

Few would fault Stybar for such an expectation. Unfortunately for the former world cyclocross champion, the tremendous strength of Thomas left no room for error in the E3 finale.

“He was really, really impressive the last four kilometers. I knew that if he went, I’d have to jump in his wheel but I thought that Sagan would do the same, and he didn’t have the legs anymore.”

Sagan was not able to offer much of an explanation as to his sudden loss of power; in a post-race interview outside the Tinkoff-Saxo bus, he seemed at a loss for words when asked what had transpired, saying that something had “turned off.”

“I felt good on Kwaremont but after, it was still a far way to go to the finish,” he said. Somewhere in between that difficult climb and the final 4 kilometers, Sagan ran out of gas. However it happened, and whenever he realized that he was scraping the bottom of the barrel, his surprise power failure was a pivotal moment in the race.

After narrowly missing out on E3, Stybar and Sagan are already looking to next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, where the absence of one of two would-be top contenders (Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen) will certainly alter the narrative of the race. But when asked about what the upcoming Tour of Flanders might be like with its now somewhat reduced cast of star protagonists, both Stybar and Sagan were quick to point out there was plenty of competition still out there.

“There are still enough guys who want to win the race,” said Stybar.

“There’s also a lot of other riders who are really strong and we’ll have to see in the race,” said Sagan.

In a day full of surprises, that agreement in the opinions of the two riders should not be much of a surprise: they both had front row seats to the show put on by one of strongest of those other riders today, one who will be hungry for more success in next week’s Ronde.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Reginald Dierckx.

March 27, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Alp › Valls – 195.4 km

After a few days of mountain climbs, punctuated by Tejay van Garderen’s emphatic stage win at the La Molina ski resort on Stage 4, the Volta a Catalunya heads back towards sea level on Stage 5. The first half of the day comprises mostly downhill roads. A long, low-gradient, uncategorized climb to Belltall awaits after kilometer 140, followed by another descent that lasts until just after kilometer 180, where the peloton will hit the day’s only categorized climb, the Alt de Lilla, 4.1 kilometers at a 4.8% average gradient. From there it’s a steep downhill almost all the way to the finish line.

The lack of space after the final descent will make this an enticing target for the punchier, aggressive types, but last year’s Valls stage went to Luka Mezgec ahead of Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in a sprint. Still, with things so close on the General Classification, and bonus seconds on the line that could change the outcome of the overall, expect to see some attacks flying here. In short, this stage could come down to a bunch sprint, it could come down to a reduced sprint, or it could go to a bold attacker off the front; I would characterize each potential outcome as about equally likely, making this a tough stage to call in a race that has already been full of surprises so far.

JJ Rojas is versatile enough to survive some selection on the climbs and he is in great sprinting shape at the moment. With Valverde a bit out of the frame in the GC picture, Rojas might be able to hunt for results without looking over his shoulder as frequently to see if the team leader is nearby and hunting for bonus seconds. This is a nice opportunity for him.

Julian Alaphilippe also has decent climbing legs and a great finishing kick. If this comes down to a sprint, he should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec knows how to win here and he’ll look to stay near the front of the pack towards the stage to battle it out in a potential bunch sprint. Bryan Coquard came into the Volta looking strong and this is a good profile for him, as he is extremely fast but also capable of surviving a climb, but it hasn’t been a great race for him so far. Still he could turn it around in this finale.

As has already been said in VH’s race previews, look for Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Wilco Kelderman, and Rigoberto Urán (roughly in order of sprinting prowess, though Valverde is undoubtedly scraping the bottom of the barrel for energy at this point after coming here directly from Milano-Sanremo) to fight it out for stage honors if action on the last climb sheds the sprinters from the peloton. In fact, any of those riders could also be the instigators of said action. Enrico Gasparotto, Cyril Gautier, and Martin Elmiger are among the punchier riders who might be able to stick with aggressive GC riders or who could even launch attacks of their own.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. JJ Rojas | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015