Tag: WorldTour

IAM Cycling In, Europcar Out, Astana Warned: A Closer Look at the WorldTour Licensing Decisions

The Annual WorldTour license distribution process is, for most teams in the top division, a formality of paperwork. Winter 2014’s licensing period, however, has proven to be a newsworthy affair: one team was promoted from the Pro Continental level to the WorldTour, one team lost its WorldTour license, and one team was awarded its license with several strings attached, including a requirement to undergo a third-party investigation. The promotion, the demotion, and the probation each merit a closer look.

IAM Cycling Joins Cycling’s Top Division

Starting with the feel-good news, Swiss outfit IAM Cycling was officially awarded their WorldTour license in the first week of December. The announcement wasn’t a surprise by the time it came (various outlets had reported that the promotion was likely), but it was nonetheless a confirmation of much planning and hard work paying off. IAM Cycling came into existence in 2013 and made a few key signings prior to the 2014 season that made clear their commitment to competing with the elite teams in the sport. The team’s marquee additions, Mathias Frank and Sylvain Chavanel, both turned in fine seasons, elevating IAM Cycling to the top of the pile among Pro Continental squads (no team ranking system is perfect, but they did earn the highest Cycling Quotient Ranking of any PCT team).

With Cannondale’s exit creating a WorldTour opening for the 2015 season, IAM saw their opportunity to advance and took advantage of it. The team may not have the abundance of race-winners of Movistar or Tinkoff-Saxo, but the collection of established talents and up-and-comers (including newly signed Clément Chevrier and Sondre Holst Enger) should prove sufficient for IAM to stay relevant even on a tougher schedule, a sentiment shared by team GC leader Mathias Frank. Frank is a bona fide contender in the stage races, especially the one-weekers, Sylvain Chavanel is a deadly one-day racer, time trialist, and stagehunter, and Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler are capable of delivering results on flatter profiles. In other words, the squad may not have the depth of talent to support a Grand Tour winner, but strong riders in key roles give them the firepower to take a few wins at the WorldTour level.

Europcar Denied WorldTour License

As IAM joins cycling’s top division, Europcar will leave it behind. It’s one and done for the French team, who earned a promotion for the 2014 season only to find themselves facing a budget shortfall for 2015, a shortfall that ultimately led the License Commission to deny the team’s WorldTour application. From a business standpoint, things are dire for the squad right now (Europcar will be pulling out as a sponsor after 2015), but, all things considered, a demotion to the Pro Continental ranks may be for the best. Europcar was the WorldTour’s weakest link in 2014; to return to Cycling Quotient for further guidance, the French outfit was dead last among WorldTour teams in CQ Rankings this season, and not far ahead of PCT squads IAM Cycling and Cofidis, despite receiving automatic invites to all WorldTour events. Pierre Rolland was an admirable 4th in the Giro d’Italia, but beyond that the WorldTour spoils were thin for Europcar. As a French team composed almost exclusively of French riders, Europcar is likely to get invited to the major French races regardless of whether they are at the WorldTour level, and for a French team composed almost exclusively of French riders, that’s what matters. Given the squad’s struggle to deliver results when stretched thin across the WorldTour calendar this year, dropping to the second division might not be the worst thing in the world for Europcar.

Astana Rides On

The biggest news item of WorldTour licensing system was not a promotion or demotion, but, oddly enough, a renewal. Having racked up two doping positives in their WorldTour squad and a total of five across their whole organization in 2014, along with other reported misdeeds (alleged collaboration with doping doctor/cycling persona non grata Michele Ferrari) to boot, Astana’s 2015 WorldTour spot was not guaranteed. However, after a review period, the UCI announced Wednesday that Astana would, in fact, receive their license. For many fans, awarding the Kazakh outfit with a ticket to ride at the top division was tantamount to old-fashioned complacency with a broken system, but from a legal perspective, the UCI was in a difficult spot. The last time the UCI’s License Commission (an entity that operates independently) attempted to take action against a team that had racked up too many positives (Katusha), the team appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport and ultimately won the case, setting a precedent for future attempts to use the licensing process in a punitive fashion. Though repeated doping offenses within their organization and allegations of collusion with Michele Ferrari make it difficult to ignore the signs of potential systematic problems, in point of fact, the Astana WorldTour squad only notched two positive tests this season. A denied license probably would not have held up under CAS scrutiny with the current body of evidence, at least the body of evidence that exists publicly.

Instead of setting up a costly and potentially embarrassing CAS battle, the License Commission gave Astana their WorldTour license but attached a few important probational strings to the decision; among them, a stipulation that Astana be subject to an independent audit with the understanding that should further evidence of rule-breaking come to light, the WorldTour license could be withdrawn. In short, this might not be the end of the story for Astana’s WorldTour ride in 2015, especially with evidence from the Padova investigation on Michele Ferrari still to be released. For now, the team’s big stars Vincenzo Nibali and Fabio Aru will have their guaranteed invites to the Giro and Tour lined up, but that could change in an instant if the UCI uncovers further signs of operational “deficiencies” at Astana. The decision did not play very well on the Twitterverse, but it will give the governing body time to gather more information and potentially make a better case for taking Astana’s license in the future.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Don Barrett.

December 11, 2014
Mathias Frank Almost Back to Full Strength, Preparing for Another Run at a Tour de France Top 10 and the (Potential) “Big Challenge” of a WorldTour Promotion

After a busy season that left him with a much-improved résumé but also a broken femur and second career Tour de France DNF, Mathias Frank is enjoying some time off. Earlier this year, his first with IAM Cycling, Frank landed in the GC Top 10 of five straight stage races, claiming runner-up honors in the Critérium International, Bayern Rundfahrt, and Tour de Suisse, and also racking up a few stage wins as well during the excellent run of performances from March to late June. The 27-year-old seemed primed for a successful return to the Tour de France, a race he’d abandoned in his 2010 debut due to a broken thumb and torn thigh muscle sustained in a crash in the prologue. However, Frank’s 2014 Tour campaign went awry on Stage 7, when he was one of a hapless bunch of riders who hit the deck hard inside the final kilometer. The crash left him with a broken left femur, an appointment with a surgeon, and another DNF in the world’s biggest race. Frank spent two months away from competition recovering before returning for a few one-day races to close out his 2014 racing program while getting a bit of strength back in his legs. Now one month removed from the season, he is (finally) nearly back to full health.

“From the femur, I don’t feel anything anymore. I don’t have any pain or anything. There was a little imbalance at the last test I did, so I’m still working with the physio on it, but I’m sure I will be at 100% pretty soon again,” he told VeloHuman in a phone interview this week.

As he takes those last few steps towards full recovery, Frank is able to look back on his season in a positive light. As frustrating as his Tour de France journey was, he still managed to put together an excellent first half of the year, which Frank acknowledges was “definitely” the best spring in his career. “Normally it always took me a bit longer to get into good shape. This year I was really happy to open the account early in the Critérium [International] and from then on, I did some pretty good racing the whole spring. So it was the best first part of the season for me,” he said.

Frank joined IAM Cycling this season after several years in the red and black of BMC. Coming off a fine 2013, the Swiss rider was a promising addition to the Swiss team that was making several big improvements at the time, also bringing in star all-rounder Sylvain Chavanel. One might expect the season’s high hopes to have come with high pressure, but Frank says that he did not feel pressured to perform, at least not by anyone other than himself. “It’s something you always put on yourself, the pressure. I don’t feel any pressure from the team, it’s more my expectations that I have. . . . I think the expectations that I have are more than what the team has! The team really doesn’t put any pressure on me,” he said.

Frank’s own motivation and the low-pressure team atmosphere contributed to a major step forward in results. Frank attributed his early season success to a “combination of different things,” among them, a new role in a new team: “The environment, the role that I have, that I can go for myself. I think I already felt in BMC the last couple of years, 2012 and 2011, I could see that I was always a competitor. I couldn’t really turn that into results but from the numbers from training I knew that I was quite close to being where I was this year. So it wasn’t really a surprise—I think that there were a lot of things coming into place.”

The multiple podium performances in the spring raised Frank’s expectations even higher for the Tour, but when his run at the main goal of his season came to a sudden end in a heap of riders and mangled bikes near the finish line in Nancy, it was a psychological blow. Still, Frank seems to have already put the frustrating Tour behind him. “For sure, I was super disappointed,” he said. “I had a big chance going for the Tour in the really good shape that I had after the Tour of Switzerland, but at the end . . . that’s how it is. Crashes, they happen. You can’t do anything but get up and try it again next year. What also helped me this year was that I became a father in June, during the Tour de Suisse, so when I was home, there was something else, there was some distraction, with my daughter. I didn’t really think too much about it. I think I just took it as destiny, as a ‘try it next year’ again.”

After crash-marred races that resulted in DNFs in both of his two career Tour appearances, Frank is hoping (in fact, he seems confident) that the third time will be the charm. “After two bad experiences, the third time it’s really going to work out. I really believe in this and that’s how I see it. That’s two bad crashes in my whole career, and they were at the Tour de France. So for sure, I’d say it’s sad, but it could happen anywhere. I’ll just have to try it again and at one point it will work,” he explained.

Frank and his squad are currently awaiting word from the UCI License Commission regarding their application to join the WorldTour in 2015, but various sources have reported that the team will likely make the cut. Thanks to strong seasons by Frank and Sylvain Chavanel, IAM Cycling was among the best of the Pro Continental squads in the peloton in terms of results this season, but joining the WorldTour ranks is no small step up. A commitment to a full calendar of top-level races, including all three Grand Tours and all five grueling Monuments, is quite an effort for any squad, and many teams have struggled in their first year at the highest level. Frank acknowledges that if IAM Cycling is, in fact, given a WorldTour bid for the 2015 season, it will not be easy. At the moment, he is realistic about what the promotion might mean, but also hopeful that rider development will pay off. “I think it will be a big challenge for sure. It’s a tough schedule now with all these race days, with three Grand Tours. But I think it was good last year to do two Grand Tours, for the team. We still have a lot of young guys and I think for them, they’re developing and next year if we go WorldTour, the team should be ready for it,” he said. “It’s a big challenge, and maybe it takes another one or two years for some guys to adapt but in general I think we have a good squad with all the new guys that are coming at the end here, and we should be ready, if we move up to the WorldTour, to perform well there.”

IAM Cycling added a few more “young guys” this transfer season, with up-and-comers Clément Chevrier and Sondre Holst Enger among a list of new arrivals that also includes climber Jarlinson Pantano and time trialing talent Stef Clement. On the other hand, the team lost experienced riders Thomas Löfkvist, Johann Tschopp, and Gustav Larsson. Frank knows that the veteran presence will not be easy to replace, but he likes what he sees in the team’s signings. “We lost some experienced guys . . . some pretty good pros. But I’m positive that the young guys will step up, the guys that we’re going to get. We’ll have to see, but I think in general we’ll be at least as good as this year,” he said.

Mathias Frank’s own plans for 2015 are not yet set in stone, but he has his sights on the one-week stage races (like the Tours de Romandie and Suisse in which he’s had recent success) and especially the Tour de France, with a third run at cycling’s main event as his central target this upcoming season. “Next year, it will be all about the Tour. I really want to go to France in good shape again and try to get a Top 10, so I think we’re going to build the program around the Tour and start from there, but it’s not really decided yet so I can’t really give details. I think it will be less racing than this year for sure, but focusing on the Tour de France,” Frank said. “The Tour is going to be the biggest goal. . . . At the end it’s the Tour de France that really counts.”

Frank has plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his major goal for next season, given the way he performed at several WorldTour and 2.HC races in 2014. On the other hand, he wouldn’t have to look very hard to find reasons to be cautious about targeting a race that has given him a broken femur and broken thumb in his two career appearances—but Frank seems to have put those unpleasant experiences behind him. That’s good news for IAM Cycling. With a WorldTour promotion (and its requirement to ride all three Grand Tours) a very real possibility, the Swiss team will be counting on their Swiss GC leader to deliver in 2015.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Georges Ménager.

November 28, 2014
Transfer Season 2014: The Peloton’s Most Improved Teams

With November in full swing, most of the high-profile moves of the 2014 transfer season have been completed. As always, some teams took advantage of the open market to make considerable upgrades to their rosters, while others did not take steps to improve, or worse, saw talented riders leave and failed to replace them. Only time will tell which of the many newsworthy signings will be success stories and which will go down as major missteps. Still, several squads stand out as having positioned themselves nicely for future success with their additions this fall. Some teams have improved by adding big-name stars, and others have solidified their rosters by signing multiple solid contributors that should fit into new roles nicely.

One of the peloton’s highest-profile teams landed the highest-profile addition of the offseason. Tinkoff-Saxo signed Peter Sagan after several months of rumors, immediately making a squad already full of GC-style talent suddenly a danger in the classics and sprints. Given the opportunity to pick up one of the sport’s most electrifying young stars, Oleg Tinkoff was resolute in his pursuit of Sagan. The decision made by the Slovakian to ride for Tinkoff-Saxo does comes with a question mark or two: he never had enough support at Cannondale, and while the Bjarne Riis outfit he joins for 2015 is obviously packed with talent for mountain stages in Grand Tours, its supporting cast for the classics and sprints does not stand out quite as much in the peloton. It remains to be seen how effective they can be in closing down the late attacks that so often derail Sagan’s hopes. Meanwhile, in terms of overall transfer season wins and losses, Tinkoff-Saxo did lose Nicolas Roche, but new signing Robert Kiserlovski, who notched a Grand Tour Top 10 this year at the Giro, should fill his absence nicely.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s loss of Nicolas Roche was Team Sky’s gain. A frustrating 2014 inspired the British squad to pull out all the stops this transfer season, and that meant adding proven Grand Tour Top 10 riders Nicolas Roche and Leopold Konig, both of whom should provide the team with deluxe domestique power in the Tour de France as well as options for overall contention in the Giro and Vuelta. Wouter Poels is another strong signing—the Dutch all-rounder took a big step forward this season and will provide Sky with both a capable challenger in the hilly classics and one-week races and a proven domestique (his support was an integral part of Rigoberto Uran’s podium performance in the 2014 Giro) for the Grand Tours. The influx of GC talent should more than make up for the loss of Dario Cataldo, who is headed to Astana for 2015. Sky also picked up a major talent for the sprints in Elia Viviani. The 25-year-old Italian was erratic this season but he has flashed remarkable top speed on occasion (he bested Mark Cavendish in two stages of the Tour of Turkey) and there is still time for him to develop. Team Sky’s more GC-oriented signings got a bit more press this transfer season, but Viviani is the new addition most likely to rack up the victories in 2015. The signing of Viviani, along with the rise of Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas as Classics protagonists and Ben Swift as a fast finisher for the intermediate stages, will soften the impact that the exit of Edvald Boasson Hagen will have on the team’s stage-hunting and one-day racing ambitions, an impact Sky did not seem too concerned with anyway; they were in no rush to re-sign the Norwegian after a pair of lackluster seasons.

A change of scenery could be just what Edvald Boasson Hagen needs, and he’ll get it at MTN-Qhubeka. The South African outfit added a stable of fast-finishing talents looking for a fresh start: in addition to EBH (who still has plenty of room to grow), they also signed Matt Goss, Tyler Farrar, and Theo Bos, among others. Goss, despite his lack of recent results, only just turned 28, and a change of pace could get him back on track in the sprints. Farrar may never beat Mark Cavendish in a one-on-one sprint battle again, but he is still capable of contesting flat profiles at the WorldTour level and he still has plenty of ability in the classics (he was 2nd in Dwars door Vlaanderen and Scheldeprijs this season, and 8th at the E3 Harelbeke). Theo Bos had a very successful 2014, winning races on three different continents, and should continue to deliver for his new team. MTN-Qhubeka may only be a Pro Continental Squad, but their transfer season talent haul was among the biggest in the whole pro scene.

Fellow Pro Conti outfit Cofidis made a big splash of their own, but rather than loading up on multiple speedsters, they focused almost all of their attention on a single powerhouse sprinter. Nacer Bouhanni’s decision to drop to a second division squad after winning five Grand Tour stages and the Giro points jersey this season is unconventional to say the least, but apparently FDJ only had room for one star sprinter (Arnaud Demare), leaving Bouhanni looking for a new ride. He still wanted to be with a French outfit, and Cofidis will likely get invited to the races he’s targeting, so it does make some sense for the young sprinting mega-talent. For Cofidis, it’s a coup; after several seasons in the middle of the Pro Continental pack, they now have a star capable of consistently challenging for victories in some of cycling’s biggest events.

Trek Factory Racing was another team that boosted their stock significantly with the addition of one rider: Bauke Mollema. Mollema didn’t have quite the 2014 that many expected, but he’s a consistent Grand Tour Top 10 rider (with Top 5 potential) who is also adept at shorter stage races and one-day classics. Andy Schleck’s retirement was big news but Trek had been without an elite GC talent for some time, and Mollema provides that ability, more than making up for the loss of Robert Kiserlovski.

Team BMC gets the final mention among transfer season winners. Their signings were not as flashy as Team Sky’s or Tinkoff-Saxo’s, and they are jettisoning quite a few riders to boot, but in additions like Damiano Caruso, Jempy Drucker, and Alessandro De Marchi, BMC was able to pick up several bright talents just hitting their prime. Caruso (a surprise Top 10 in the Vuelta) provides the team’s GC ambitions with a much needed injection of youthful talent, Drucker adds firepower to the Classics lineup, and De Marchi brings his elite stagehunting talents and a potential for stage race KoM jerseys to the table. These all come in addition to rising star all-rounder Rohan Dennis, who arrived as a midseason transfer. BMC may not have grabbed many big headlines this fall, but they filled several needs and that will help them improve across the board in 2015.

A year from now, it will undoubtedly be easier to evaluate the 2014 transfer season, but at the very least, the teams that have made the investments in riders like Leopold Konig and Alessandro De Marchi have put themselves in strong positions to succeed next year. The new transfers will have their chances to prove themselves soon; riders are returning to training after end-of-season vacations, and the start of the 2015 road season proper will arrive before long.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sum_of_Marc.

November 13, 2014
2014 Rider Ranking Analysis: A Data-driven Approach

Last week, VeloHuman published an article focused on the breakout stars of the 2014 season, continuing a tradition begun in 2013. Just as was the case last year, much of that analysis came out of a data-driven approach: VH charted rider performance differentials from last season to this one by looking at the points riders accumulated in that timeframe according to both Cycling Quotient and WorldTour Rankings and comparing the difference from one year to the next. Such an analysis makes it easy to see the most dramatic shifts in performance across the professional peloton. Providing a bit of data visualization and also the raw data itself proved a popular decision last year, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions about the ups and downs of the season, so VH decided to provide those tools again this year! Without further ado, the 50 biggest CQ points swings (for riders who were active this season—Mauro Santambrogio, suspended for the year, was left out of the graphic) between 2013 and 2014:

Click here to view the full-size, single image version.

Just a few of the highlights that jump out from the graphic: injuries obviously played a huge role in 2014. Back problems, heart problems, broken wrists, broken collarbones, and broken ribs accounted for much of the red in the Top 50. For some riders, however, the dropoff in performance could not readily be attributed to a fracture or other ailment. Peter Sagan stood on two Monument podiums and won a Tour de France stage in 2013; he didn’t make a single Monument Top 3 and he went winless in the Tour this year. He still finished 2014 ranked 9th overall in CQ Points, but instead of progressing, as may have been expected of the still young star, Sagan seemed to stagnate. Alberto Contador, on the other hand, overcame injury to soar this season. He may have missed out on Tour results but he dominated the one-weekers of the early season, taking victory in Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and 2nd in Catalunya and the Dauphine, and then came back with a vengeance in the Vuelta.

The red bar to the left of Vincenzo Nibali’s name may come as a surprise, but it shouldn’t; these are season-long rankings that take into account performances across the racing calendar. Nibali probably wouldn’t give up his season for the world, and a victory in the Tour de France makes it easy to ignore the entire rest of the year, but the Italian stage racing star plainly underwhelmed in the contests leading into the 2014 Tour, and did not put in many race days after Paris.

Heralded rising stars like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tom Van Asbroeck, Fabio Aru, and Tom Dumoulin soared up the various popular rider ranking systems this season and that is reflected here, but a few of the breakout performances you may have missed are shown as well: Pete Kennaugh made statements in several Continental Tour races, and with the powerful support of Team Sky he should continue to develop. Jerome Baugnies of Wanty – Groupe Gobert has been a consistent performer in lower level races across the past few months. Niccolo Bonifazio, who just turned 21 last month, has taken big results at home in Italy and abroad; he just won three stages and the Points Classification, as well as taking 2nd overall, in the Tour of Hainan, a fine way to close out his first full season as a pro.

The data visualization above offers some highlights from this season’s year-over-year rider ranking data but there is plenty more information to be gleaned from the raw numbers. If you are handy with data manipulation, you can draw conclusions of your own: click here to download the 2013–2014 data for the Top 500 riders of the season (on the CQ Ranking scale). Inside, you’ll find identifying biographical data (name, team, country, and birthdate) and CQ Ranking and WorldTour data from 2013 and 2014 along with the differentials across both seasons, so that you can filter and sort to your heart’s content as you make your own analysis. Keep in mind that Cycling Quotient’s ranking system and the WorldTour ranking system are different and favor different things—the CQ Ranking values Continental level results, for instance, while the WorldTour rankings do not. In fact, non-WorldTour riders do not score WT points at all even if they get results in WT races, which is why WorldTour ranking data doesn’t exist for plenty of names on the list. Both systems have their advantages, and ultimately, the sport’s biggest names score highly on both scales anyway.

Feel free to share your thoughts here in the comments or on Twitter @VeloHuman!

-Dane Cash

November 4, 2014
Breakout Riders of 2014: A Look at the Rising Stars Who Made the Season’s Most Emphatic Statements

The cold-weather months may be light on road racing, but they do provide an excellent opportunity to take stock of the big performances of the past season with an eye for future potential. Looking at the big picture of races from January all the way up to October, we can get a pretty good idea of the riders that made the most emphatic arrivals this season, and also of those already-known up-and-comers who took clear steps forward into the spotlight with high-visibility results. This sort of prospective retrospective is always nice to have in the middle of the following season, as a barometer of which rising stars are on track in their progression, and which have fallen short of expectations.

It’s hard to see anyone other than Fabio Aru as the year’s most emphatic arrival. He had been touted as Italian cycling’s next big thing for some time (in last season’s post-year retrospective, I named him as a likely break-out candidate), but he’d never even been on the podium in a WorldTour race before this year. Hard to believe, given that he’s now a three-time Grand Tour stage winner and two-time Grand Tour Top 5 finisher at age 24. A pure climber with an aggressive streak, Aru has the right combination of talent, racing acumen, and guile to pick up victories with bold long-range strikes on the sport’s most challenging slopes. The long, flat time trials are a major weakness in his game, but as chrono-light routes become more and more en vogue, Aru should continue to thrive in the Grand Tours. Interestingly, he doesn’t have much in the way of one-week stage race results to his name, but his skillset would seem well-suited to those too. In short, Aru should be primed for plenty more success as he continues to develop, and continue to develop he will: he doesn’t turn 25 until after the 2015 Giro. Teammate Vincenzo Nibali may have gotten the lion’s share of Astana publicity this season (and his Tour de France victory certainly represents a worthy career progression), but Aru really took a quantum leap forward in his two Grand Tour appearances.

Where Aru made his arrival the in three-weekers, newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski made his statements in the one-day and one-week races, racking up a slew of stellar performances in the early part of the season (winning in Strade Bianche and putting in big rides in Pais Vasco, the Ardennes, and the prologue of the Tour de Romandie, his first WorldTour victory) and then coming back with a vengeance in September, winning a stage in the Tour of Britain en route to 2nd overall and then, of course, taking the rainbow jersey in Ponferrada. It’s more of a giant step-up than an arrival, as Kwiatkowski did flash serious ability in 2013, but he turned Top 10s into podiums and victories this year. For all-around talent, Kwiatkowski rivals Alejandro Valverde in versatility. Pais Vasco was an early expression of that versatility for the young Pole: he was 2nd to Alberto Contador on the General Classification thanks to his climbing legs and his stellar ITT, but he also won the Points Jersey after being in the Top 3 in five of the six stages of the race. After narrowly missing out on the Top 10 in last year’s Tour de France, Kwiatkowski’s ride from Leeds to Paris this season was a bit of a disappointment, but it may be that Kwiatkowski just isn’t a Grand Tour GC contender at this point in his career, and with the way he has performed in the shorter races, that may be okay with him given his ability to contest all manner of one-day and one-week events.

Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin was another 1990-born all-round talent to take several steps forward this season. Dumoulin, like Kwiatkowsi, showed promise with several big rides in 2013, but he took his game to a new level in 2014, racking up a few time trial victories in big races (including the Eneco Tour) and taking third in the ITT World Champs, and also delivering several strong road race performances. Wins eluded him, but he came very close in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, passed by Simon Gerrans just a few meters before the line. He also climbed well enough to hold onto 5th overall in the Tour de Suisse after getting into good position on GC early in that race with strong chrono rides. His time trial has been his biggest strength throughout his young career, but he made significant strides on the hills and at the finish line this season, and looks primed for big things on all sorts of profiles in 2015.

Alexander Kristoff has enjoyed a textbook progression over the last few years, steadily earning more and more success as he has carved out a niche on the road; in last season’s post-year impressions piece, I said that he had “established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” He delivered on that promise this season, winning a Monument Classic and two Tour de France stages and picking up plenty of other big results on the way. John Degenkolb, another hardman sprinter (who should challenge Kristoff on the tougher profiles for years to come), took a major leap forward this season as well. The German announced himself with five Vuelta stage wins in 2012 and had a strong 2013, but his victory in Gent-Wevelgem this spring, along with a runner-up ride at Paris-Roubaix, another collection of stage wins at the Vuelta, and several other major successes cemented his position as an elite rider on the tougher sprinters’ days. The emergence of Kristoff and Degenkolb will be a major challenge for Peter Sagan to overcome in the sprinter-friendly classics moving forward.

Stepping away from WorldTour teams, the Europe Tour provided a down-to-the-wire battle for overall supremacy between two of the year’s biggest arrivals: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom van Asbroeck and Bardiani – CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli. Both riders put in impressive performances at major WorldTour events early in the season (van Asbroeck in Gent-Wevelgem and Colbrelli in Milano-Sanremo), and top result after top result in the bigger Europe Tour races on the year.

WorldTour-level action was limited for both of them, but the talent (and top-end speed) is there: Van Asbroeck has a bright future in the classics, especially those where fast finishes are likely, while Colbrelli looks well-suited for bumpier sprinter-friendly days. Van Asbroeck should have plenty of opportunities to go up against prime competition next year, having signed a two-year contract with Belkin, who will appreciate his addition to their classics squad with the departure of Lars Boom. Colbrelli will stay with Bardiani – CSF, but he should continue to have chances to shine in MSR and the Giro, among other races.

23-year-old Tim Wellens has been with Lotto Belisol since 2012, but something clicked for him this season. The Giro offered the first hints of an impressive puncheur’s engine lurking under the hood; Wellens was active in long-range moves in Italy and came close to victory on multiple occasions, though a pair of 2nd places was all he had to show for his efforts. However, he didn’t have to wait too long to make good on that promise. Sitting 16th overall and 49 seconds down on GC, Tim Wellens struck out for glory from afar on Stage 6 of the Eneco Tour and held on for a decisive stage win and, ultimately, the time gap necessary to secure overall victory. He again put those punchy legs on display with a Top 10 in Plouay, and a 4th place finish in Il Lombardia among very impressive company. Lotto Belisol will be able to mount a potent two-pronged attack with Wellens and Jelle Vanendert in next year’s Ardennes and other hilly classics.

Orica-GreenEdge was able to enjoy the highly visible arrivals of multiple squad members. The Australian outfit knew that they were getting a wealth of talent when they signed the Yates twins, and both showed ability this season, with Adam Yates in particular having a breakout year. The 22-year-old took a stage and the overall victory in the Tour of Turkey and kept the foot on the gas for his next several starts, landing 5th in the Tour of California and 6th in a hotly contested Criterium du Dauphine (ahead of Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali). He won Italy’s GP Industria & Artigianato and was in prime position in a leading group of five in the final kilometers of the Clasica de San Sebastian before a crash took him out of contention. With explosive climbing legs and a willingness to take chances, Yates had plenty of success in 2014 and looks ready for more in 2015. OGE saw yet another major breakout season with Johan Esteban Chaves, a pure climbing talent with an affinity for the tough mountains.

Chaves had a promising 2012 but his 2013 was derailed by an early-season crash that left him with a number of serious injuries (including a fractured collarbone and cheekbone). He got back on track in style this year, climbing to stage wins in the Tour of California and 3rd overall in the Tour of Beijing. He likely still needs to get some mileage as a WorldTour pro before he can put in a challenge in the Grand Tours, but he’s ready to contend in the one-week races right now. Suddenly Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options in the mountains.

French cycling enjoyed a renaissance year, and Romain Bardet‘s emergence as a top-level threat was a big part of that. After a strong 2013, his progression wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but a nation of cycling fans was pleased to see him deliver on his early promise. His impressive climbing legs took him to 6th overall in the Tour (he was a flat tire in the final ITT away from 5th), and he also displayed a surprising knack for one-day success, landing in the Top 10 in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the GP Montreal. He has a surprising kick and should make waves in the shorter climber-friendly races as he continues to develop for the Grand Tours.

Cannondale may be going through a merger/takeover, but the final year of the team as we know it saw a few impressive stage racing performances from rising stars. Neo-pro Davide Formolo, just 22, climbed to 4th in the Tour of Turkey and then a month later, against several top GC-style riders nearing their Tour de France peak form, he finished 7th overall in the Tour de Suisse. He strung together a nice collection of results in smaller one-day races as well. He should continue to develop with the new Garmin-Cannondale squad. Meanwhile, another Italian talent wearing Cannondale green took major strides forward in the Vuelta. Damiano Caruso had never been in the Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour race until this season, but he picked up his first WT Top 10 in style at the Vuelta a España, where he consistently hung with the best climbers in the bunch most of the way up that race’s toughest mountains. BMC, running a bit low on GC guys as Cadel Evans retires and Samuel Sanchez nears the end of his career, will be glad to have the infusion of talent as he joins them for 2015.

Speaking of BMC, Silvan Dillier put together a nice season, picking up results in a wide variety of races and contributing to his squad’s World Championship TTT ride as well. He thrives during hard days in the saddle and has a fast finish to boot. The same could be said (and more emphatically) of the skillset of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas. He picked up an impressive win with a late attack in the Tour de France, and he was 3rd in Quebec and 4th in Montreal. He’s always been an aggressive rider with a knack for getting clear on the harder profiles, but an improved finishing kick allowed him to contest a number of sprint finishes this year. He’s now won two Grand Tour stages, and at age 26, he’s just hitting his prime.

Michael Valgren of Tinkoff-Saxo gets the final mention. The 22-year-old has been a high-profile prospect for some time after delivering several big results in U23 and national events, but this season he sailed to a convincing victory in the Post Danmark Rundt and put in several other strong rides in big races. He was a visible figure at the Worlds Road Race, taking several shots from afar. He has a wide array of talents and a lot of raw power in the tank, and at just 22, he should be on track to land plenty more big results in 2015.

This is, of course, not an exhaustive list, but hopefully it makes for a useful catalog of the year’s biggest arrivals and most improved up-and-comers. For many of them, breakout success will lead to more focused scrutiny in 2015, which should offer plenty of interesting storylines for the upcoming season as these young rising talents try to cope with pressure to perform. To face that challenge, they will hope to get in as much recovery this offseason as possible, but January and the start of the WorldTour in Australia get closer every day.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Alberto Brevers and moz278.

October 28, 2014
Riding into the Offseason

The conclusion of the Tour of Beijing was also the conclusion of the 2014 WorldTour and, therefore, the start of several months of R&R for most of the pro peloton. Several big names enjoyed one last hurrah in the 2.HC Japan Cycle Cup (won for a second time by Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas), but with that race in the books, the vast majority of WorldTour riders have begun their offseason, with only a select few top-level pros still participating in races like the Tour of Hainan.

Most of the peloton will welcome the opportunity to rest and recover, but the offseason does come with an unfortunate side effect: the professional road cycling world inevitably quiets down a bit during the wintertime! For instance, there won’t be any VeloHuman race previews until January, when the 2015 WorldTour kicks off with the Tour Down Under. Even after that, things don’t really get rolling until early March and the double billing of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. But that doesn’t mean things will be completely silent around here or in the road cycling world at large during the cold-weather months: there’s always something happening in this sport, and even when the biggest stars aren’t racing on the asphalt, some recognizable names are racing in the dirt (cyclocross season is here!), the routes of next year’s major races are being revealed all the time, and several top riders are still hunting for teams for the upcoming season. In other words, stay tuned! There is still plenty of analysis to come here at VH even during the long dark offseason. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay connected.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Contando Estrelas.

October 22, 2014