Tag: WorldTour

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Baeza › Albacete – 207 km

After a bumpy Stage 7 won by Alessandro Di Marchi, and with Sunday’s mountain stage looming, the peloton will get to enjoy a day of flat roads on Stage 8. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Baeza to Albacete, and the final 60 kilometers are more or less downhill, though there is a short uphill section of less than a kilometer right around the 3-km-to-go mark. There are a few roundabouts and some hard corners, but then the final 900 meters run straight to the line. Overall, Stage 8 is the longest stage in this Vuelta at 207 kilometers, but without many uphill challenges, the length of the route shouldn’t alter the outcome too drastically.

A sprint finish seems more than likely on the profile, setting up another probable showdown between FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. There are reasons to like both for stage honors. Degenkolb took the most recent head-to-head battle on Stage 5, and even had Bouhanni made better positioning choices in the finale (he ended up boxed out on the barriers behind and to the outside of Degenkolb), it’s not totally a given that he would have passed the German anyway. Degenkolb is very fast right now, and a longer day than usual will further favor the Paris-Roubaix runner-up as well. Still, Bouhanni’s typically top-notch ability to fight for position will help as the peloton passes through a few late roundabouts. Moreover, Degenkolb hit the deck on Stage 7, and it’s unclear how he’ll feel the day after. If both riders are at their best, this should be very close, (and the duo is significantly faster than any of their other rivals), but Bouhanni has a slight edge as the favorite for Stage 8 with uncertainty around Degenkolb’s condition.

Familiar names make the list of other potential contenders. Roberto Ferrari, who has not made it to many sprint finishes yet in this race, should jump at this opportunity to contest a bunch gallop on a very flat stage. He is still quite fast. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland was 3rd behind Degenkolb and Bouhanni on Stage 5, showing his potential. Another good result could be in the cards here. The versatile Michael Matthews wants to do well on the pure sprint stages as well as the hilly ones, and although he hasn’t landed the kinds of results he’s hoped for on the flat days in this Vuelta a España just yet, he does have an impressive turn of speed. If he can nail down the timing and the positioning, he could be in the mix on Stage 8. Astana’s Andrea Guardini, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, and Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere have not featured in the sprint finishes in this race as often as they would have hoped so far, but this parcours should put them in position to challenge for stage honors. Tom Boonen, Jasper Stuyven, Vicente Reynes, Yauheni Hutarovich, Oscar Gatto (or Peter Sagan, should he decide to go for it), Gerald Ciolek, and Francesco Lasca are others who could get involved in the probable bunch gallop to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Roberto Ferrari

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned for more. Also, be sure to come back soon for the preview of the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, and in the meantime, check out VeloHuman’s recent interviews with two likely protagonists of that race, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing and Ben Swift of Team Sky.

-Dane Cash

August 29, 2014
Ben Swift Optimistic about Form, Targeting GP Ouest-France, Tour of Britain, and World Championships

After ending his 2013 campaign early to undergo surgery to fix a painful shoulder injury, Team Sky’s Ben Swift is back to his best in 2014. Following a strong spring and early summer, he took a break from racing, and then returned to competition at the beginning of this month with a few goals for the late-season calendar in mind. With one of those goals, Plouay’s GP Ouest-France, only two days away, he talked to VeloHuman about his season so far, his current form, and his expectations for the next few weeks of racing.

Swift started the year off very well; among several strong results, he contested a sprint finish after nearly 300 kilometers to land a podium place in Milano-Sanremo, and took a win at the Vuelta al País Vasco in a stage with some serious climbing challenges before the finish. With those results, Swift showed that he had not just recovered, but that he was feeling quite good and continuing to develop an already versatile skillset. For Swift, the success was directly attributable to his newly repaired shoulder, which has also given him a major morale boost.

“Last year and the years before, having that injury, you just can’t get the training that you need,” he explained to VH. “Morale’s not good and every time it hurts . . . you just can’t get the work done and you end up just getting yourself into a hole. So we made the call at the end of last year to finish really early and just get it fixed, and give myself a lot of time, and it seems to have worked. And once you get that confidence back really, I think that was another big thing, to prove not only to myself, but to everybody, that I could be at that level again, where I showed that I could be. So it was good to get that confidence back and that morale back.”

Swift put in more race mileage in May and June, riding in the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de Suisse and then landing a runner-up performance at the British National Championship Road Race. After Nationals, he took some time off to rest and recover for a few late-season goals. His return since then has had ups and downs: crashes marred his first race back, the Tour de Pologne, but days after leaving Poland he landed a 2nd-place finish in the RideLondon Classic. Last weekend’s Vattenfall Cyclassics in Hamburg was his next target, but Swift wasn’t able to put in the performance he’d hoped for. Despite that, he is currently optimistic about his upcoming objectives.

“Tour of Poland . . . obviously that didn’t go too well, two crashes and a puncture. But I came good again in the RideLondon. And then I had a really heavy training block after RideLondon and before Hamburg. I was obviously expecting a lot more for myself in Hamburg, but I’m hoping it was just a bad day,” he said. “I haven’t had too many bad days this year. That was one of the first ones where I’ve been a protected rider and just had nothing. It was like, do one effort and that was it, I’m fatigued. So hopefully it was just a bit of training fatigue. I had a nice week in Nice this week with my soigneur, so hopefully in Plouay we can turn things around. But in the long term I’m not too worried. It would be nice to get a good result in Plouay and show that the legs are coming back but if not, I’ll just keep going easy and try to make the most out of Tour of Britain.”

Sunday’s GP Ouest-France in Plouay does have the sort of profile that would seem to suit the talents of Swift and his teammates, which has him feeling good about the opportunity to try for a top result.

“We’ve got Edvald [Boasson Hagen] starting to improve a hell of a lot now. He’s come into some really good form, so I can see it being myself and Edvald being sort of joint leaders for it. They’re quite interesting races these two, Hamburg and Plouay. You’ve got a lot of people that are quite fatigued from the Tour and some that are starting to wind down for the season, so you’ve got a real mix of riders. It’s just about making the most of these opportunities, and I think that with Edvald and the rest of the guys, we’ve got a strong team and I think there’s a lot of motivation inside the team,” he said.

Though the startlist is not yet set in stone, Swift identified Simon Gerrans and Alexander Kristoff as likely rivals and riders worth watching at the GP Ouest-France. After his trip to Plouay, Swift has his sights set on the Tour of Britain, a race in which he’s already taken a stage victory (back in 2009).

“Hopefuly I’ll go into it fresh. I’ll be chasing stage wins, that’s for sure, I’ll try and make it at least one stage win there, and then it’s the final push for the World Championships,” he said.

Hilly but with a flat finish, the profile for the World Championship Road Race in Ponferrada, Spain certainly looks like one that might fit Swift’s skillset. Having done some recon of the course already, he does see opportunity, but acknowledges that it will be a hard race to predict.

“It’s quite an interesting [parcours]. I think it’s open to a lot of scenarios really. It just depends on the race, how it develops as it goes along. I don’t think the climbs are that hard on their own but when they’re combined, then towards the end of the race it’s going to be a bit of a different story. So it’s going to be interesting, and it’s all about saving as much energy as possible, I reckon,” he said.

He is particularly excited about the growing number of British riders who could find this type of challenge to their liking.

“If I saw this sort of profile in a stage race, I’d be really excited for it. It’s something that, I think, as a nation, we haven’t really had any out-and-out riders for it. But obviously this year, we’ve had the Yateses [twins Adam and Simon Yates] step up really well. Pete Kennaugh, it’s a perfect course for him. I think we’ll have a lot of cards to play,” Swift said.

The World Championships may yet be a few weeks off, but with 229 kilometers of racing and plenty of climbs along the way, Sunday’s GP Ouest-France will offer an indication of where Swift is in terms of form. If he’s able to return to return to the level that saw him landing consistently impressive results in the spring and early summer, he’ll have a few good opportunities to add to his palmarès before the season comes to a close.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Marc.

August 29, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Alhendín › Alcaudete – 169 km

Alejandro Valverde won a tough Stage 6 that saw the first serious GC action of the race, as several big names lost ground on the day’s final ascent. Stage 7 shouldn’t be as decisive for the General Classification, but it is a hilly one, packed with smaller climbs that, when taken all together, will exact a toll on the legs, even if the profile may not look particularly brutal from a categorized climb standpoint. The peloton will at least be allowed to ease into the bumpy parcours with about 30 kilometers of relatively flat roads to start the stage, but after that it’s an undulating journey basically all the way to the line, starting with the Cat. 3 Alto de Illora. With around 60 kilometers to go, the riders will reach the bottom of the Alto Ahillo climb, a long slog of 12.1 kilometers at a 4% average grade, and the Cat. 2 will likely find out some tired legs at this point in the day. On the way up, the riders will pass through finishing city of Alcaudete for the first time. From the top of the climb, though, it’s still nearly 50 kilometers to the end of the stage, a stretch that is, by and large, mostly downhill, at least until about the 15-km-to-go mark, when the road gently angles upward again. The incline becomes more pronounced toward the very end of the day, with the final 5 kilometers averaging roughly 4%. The uphill finish is not categorized in any way, but it’s certainly steep enough to bring the punchier specialists to the fore.

The constantly up-and-down parcours of Stage 7, coupled with a finish that won’t be all that appetizing for the sprinters, will make this an enticing opportunity for the long-range opportunists. It will be difficult for the peloton to control the race with this profile, and motivation in the pack to do so may not be all that high, given the difficult finale. Still, it’s not a certainty that the escape will survive, thanks to an especially impressive list of quick men on this startlist who also have strong climbing legs; several teams do have riders who will find the possibility of a final uphill sprint to their liking, and if enough miss out on the break, the scales will tip in the favor of the pack.

As is the case on most breakaway-friendly days, there is no real outright favorite. A few names stand out as possible protagonists, however. Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge is certainly one. The Stage 7 finish suits him perfectly, with the gradient to slow the other quick men. If his team can keep the breakaway in check over the undulating profile, Matthews will be the rider to beat at the end of the day.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is another obvious candidate on this profile. In an uphill gallop, few are better, and he showed decent form placing 7th in Stage 5’s flatter finale. With the World Championships approaching, he is likely to get stronger and stronger as this race goes on.

Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb would prefer a slightly less steep final kilometer, but he’s still a dangerous option on this stage if things stay together for a sprint. His team has several strong engines for this sort of profile to give him support throughout the day.

As a team, Belkin has a lot of flexibility for this one, with several riders who could play joker to some more obvious candidates for stage honors. For one, Moreno Hofland is dangerous an uphill sprint. If he doesn’t make it to the line with the lead group, though, Paul Martens might, and the veteran German also has a quick finish. If things are too selective for both, GC man Wilco Kelderman packs a speedy kick of his own.

The list of other fast finishers who could contend for Stage 7 if the break is reeled in includes Lloyd Mondory, Filippo Pozzato, Vicente Reyes, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, and possibly even Nacer Bouhanni, who is climbing reasonably well in this Vuelta. GC riders like Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Daniel Moreno, Cadel Evans, and Joaquim Rodriguez could be in the mix as well.

Predicting who will try to win this stage from afar is quite difficult, but a few riders come to mind as potential contenders should they make it into a long-distance move. Alexandr Kolobnev will like the finish and he’s a rider who is capable of spending the day off the front. Luis Leon Sanchez has not featured too prominently in many big races lately, but this profile should suit his skillset and he could try to get into the day’s breakaway. Adam Hansen has shown an interest in getting out front in this Vuelta, and he should manage the climbs well. Tony Martin is a danger whenever the profile is friendly to solo artists. Peter Sagan has already tried to get into a break in this race, and this could be a day for him to try his legs again; Cannondale has Oscar Gatto and Damiano Caruso as well should Sagan not be up for this. Bob Jungels, Damiano Cunego, Anthony Roux, and Ronaldo Nocentini are just a few others who could have success on Stage 7 if they make it into a breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Alexandr Kolobnev

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned.

August 28, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Benalmádena › La Zubia – 167.1 km

John Degenkolb took a second straight sprint victory in Stage 5, but his sprinting rivals will have to wait a little while for a shot at revenge, as the Vuelta hits its first serious uphill test in Stage 6. Things will start out calm, as the peloton will set out from Benalmádena and take on over almost 50 kilometers of relatively flat coastal roads before heading inland. Not long after the route changes direction, the road kicks upward to climb the Alto de Zafarraya, a challenging Category 2 of 12.3 kilometers at 5.7%. After the KOM point, the climbing continues on and off over a stretch of rolling roads (with the Category 3 Alto de los Bermejales among the uphill sections that the pack must overcome). Things flatten out again with about 40 km to go, and they stay that way for a while as the peloton heads toward Granada. The riders will pass through the outskirts of town and then the city proper, hitting a pair of intermediate sprint points along the way, but then the route will take them southeast to challenging finale on the Alto Cumbres Verdes, the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta a España. It is only 4.6 kilometers in length, but it has an average gradient of 7.8%, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story either. Things get particularly steep after the first kilometer, with a significant stretch that hits almost 13% coming between kilometers 1 and 2, and not a whole lot of respite after that, as things stay very steep all the way to the line.

The first real climbers’ day of the Vuelta, Stage 6 should see some GC action on the final slopes. The Cumbres Verdes climb is a tough enough uphill test to open up gaps between the finishers, and the top contenders for the red jersey will want to making strong opening statements on the high gradients.

The day’s breakaway will have a chance of going the distance on the profile, but they will also have a few factors weighing against them. A very long section of flat before the final climb will significantly boost the chances of the chasing pack, and the punchy GC riders will have extra motivation to reel in anyone up the road thanks to the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. If the red jersey hunters spend the final hour of the race watching each other and not injecting the pace, a strong rider off the front will have a nice opportunity for stage honors, but otherwise, a showdown among the big-name climbers should be on tap.

Though the final few kilometers are very steep, this is a short climb, and that will play into the hands of the riders who can find an extra gear for a brief charge up a high gradient. Joaquim Rodriguez will love this finish. He is on terrific form right now and with motivation through the roof, he’ll be hard to beat on this terrain. Teammate Daniel Moreno is also particularly well-suited to this challenging ascent.

Movistar’s Nairo Quintana would prefer a longer finishing climb, but he has the skillset to pull out an advantage whenever the gradient nears 10%, and with the form he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos, he will be hard to catch if he goes on the attack in the Stage 6. Like Purito, Quintana also has a particularly dangerous teammate in Alejandro Valverde, who lost a few seconds on Stage 3 and will be eager to get back onto the same time as Quintana. It won’t be easy to counter Movistar’s one-two punch.

Chris Froome showed on Stage 3 that he’s feeling strong in this Vuelta, and he knows he can’t afford to wait to gain ground on his rivals after losing some time in the opening TTT, even though this isn’t the sort of long slogging climb that one might traditionally associate with his skillset. If he is truly at his best and planning on fighting for the overall victory in this race, he will be a strong contender on this stage.

Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin likes the high-gradient finales and showed with a near-victory on Stage 3 that he’s on great form. With Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky both essentially out of the GC picture after being caught out in crosswinds on Stage 5, Garmin will be fully committed to Martin’s ambitions in this race.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador has been downplaying his aspirations in this race, but he has not showed much weakness so far, and this will be an opportunity to see just how well he has recovered from his leg injury. Obviously, if he is in good shape, this steep summit finish suits him well. Fabio Aru is a terrific uphill charger who should like the Stage 6 profile, but form is a bit of an unknown right now. If he’s feeling strong, he’ll be dangerous. Rigoberto Uran‘s form is also a question mark, but if he’s at his best he should be able to be in the mix. Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Wilco Kelderman, and Johan Esteban Chaves are others who could get involved for stage honors.

At this point in the race, with so many strong climbers still relatively well-placed on GC, there aren’t a whole lot of riders that stand out as strong long-range candidates on a climb like this. Julian Arredondo is one, but he has not appeared to be at full strength just yet (though if he does get out, he’ll obviously be a danger). Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Damiano Cunego, and Kenny Elissonde are others who might have a chance at Stage 6 if they are allowed up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 27, 2014
Giacomo Nizzolo “Really, Really, Really Motivated” for Plouay’s GP Ouest-France after Runner-up Performance at Vattenfall Cyclassics

Fresh off of a 2nd-place finish at the Vattenfall Cyclassics in Hamburg, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing is looking forward to having another shot at a big win in the upcoming GP Ouest-France, where he was 2nd in 2013. Nizzolo’s 2014 campaign has had its gratifying moments and its frustrating ones, and plenty of moments that have been a bit of both, and he took a few minutes out of his midweek preparation to talk to VH about his season so far and his expectations for Sunday’s race in Plouay.

Nizzolo started off the year strong with a victory in the Tour de San Luis, but soon after, he suffered a broken collarbone as a result of a training crash. The painful injury would be just the first in a series of difficult health issues that have hampered him on and off throughout the year. Nizzolo described the persistent challenge of being slowed by injury and illness this season when his form has otherwise been very strong as “one of the hardest” of his career.

“I had great training camps in the winter and I was in really good shape at the beginning of the season and then unluckily I broke my collarbone. I think that the first part of the season could have been really successful for me, but then with the crash everything was gone,” he explained to VeloHuman. “And then, mentally and physically, it was really hard to get my shape back for the Giro.

“I came to the Dauphiné to try to get a victory after the Giro because I knew I was in great shape and normally after a big tour I’m good. So I went there, and then on the only stage for the sprinters, with sixty kilometers to go, I crashed and I broke a bone in my shoulder. I only discovered the fracture twenty days later. I thought it was something with the tendon and I planned some therapy to try to treat the tendon, but I kept moving the shoulder and it was definitely not [feeling] the right way.

“Then, I stopped, I took a break, and then tried to work hard for the second part of the season. I went to altitude again, I came down, I went to Wallonie and got the stage victory. But still I felt that something was wrong, and I got this virus. I was feeling it actually until the Eneco Tour last week. Even last week I was not feeling so good.”

He finally started to feel better in time for Hamburg’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he put in a strong ride to finish 2nd behind Alexander Kristoff in a sprint. His sixth 2nd-place performance on the year (he notched four of them in the Giro d’Italia), it was certainly something to be proud of, but at the same time, a frustrating result. Nizzolo acknowledged that it is hard to feel satisfied when he finishes a race as runner-up.

“I’m disappointed. Sometimes, third is much better than second because when you’re second you’re so close to victory and you’re missing really only a few things to win,” he explained. “When you’re third you can say, ‘Well there was one guy stronger than me even if the winner was not there.’ So I am a little bit frustrated. But on the other side, when I think about it days later, I say, ‘Okay, in the end, what can I say? I did my best.’ . . . Sometimes I make mistakes, but for example in Hamburg, this was the best I could bring home, especially when you think that I was coming from a week that was not the best. On one side, you’re disappointed, but on the other you can be proud to be there.”

Frustrating though they may be, the near misses don’t stop Nizzolo from working hard to find areas of improvement. In the Giro, for example, he tried to fine tune his timing with each finish.

“In the Giro I tried different ways to win the stage. One time I waited, but he [Nacer Bouhanni] started [his sprint]. Other times, I tried to anticipate the sprint and start before him. You look at the videos and you look at what maybe you did wrong and what you can make better and, for sure, you can learn something. . . . When you lose you can always learn something. Even when you win. When I win, I say sometimes, ‘This could be better.’ Every time, you have to learn something.”

He now has his sights set on the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, a major objective for the remainder of his 2014 racing calendar. Hillier than the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France came down to a sprint last year, but it’s a tough event that does encourage riders to attempt longer-range moves.

“Plouay was one of my targets from the top of the season,” Nizzolo said. “Hamburg and Plouay are some of my favorite races. Sunday in Plouay is harder than Hamburg, but it’s a race that I like (like Hamburg) so I will go there really, really, really motivated and I will have the maximum support from the team, as I had in Hamburg. In Hamburg I had the support from the team even when I was not in the best shape. So in Plouay I will have everybody helping me and we will go for it.”

The race is still a few days away, but he already has a sense of who his main rivals might be.

“I think, more or less, it will be the same competitors as Hamburg, though it’s harder and the climb is closer to the finish, so guys like Van Avermaet, Trentin, Albasini, Gerrans . . . they could make some action at the end so that for us as sprinters it will be harder to get results,” he said.

After the GP Ouest-France, Nizzolo expects to take on the Brussels Cycling Classic and the Tour de l’Eurométropole, among other races. With the World Championship Road Race not far off, Nizzolo acknowledges that selection to the Italian team is something he thinks about, but he isn’t sure how well the parcours suits him.

“I checked the circuit a few months ago and it’s hard. The climbs are hard but there is not much recovery between them . . . and there are more than 4000 meters of altitude, so it will be hard. For a guy like me, I would need to be in the best shape to be there. So honestly at the moment I will go for Plouay and then we will make a check and discuss,” he said.

Looking beyond the 2014 season, Nizzolo is signed with Trek through 2016 after renewing with the team in the middle of this year. The team isn’t laying any specific goals for these next few seasons at his feet, but Nizzolo has targets in mind.

“I don’t think we have particular goals, but I see and they see probably that I improve every year a little bit. So we will try to go for stages in the big tours and then a semi-classic like Hamburg or Plouay,” he said.

On strong form and, at least for the moment, unhampered by illness or injury, Nizzolo will have an opportunity at meeting one of those goals in four days at the GP Ouest-France in Plouay. Narrowly missing out on a win there last year, and likely to face some of the same rivals that contested the recent Vattenfall Cyclassics, Nizzolo will have that little bit of extra familiarity with the situation on the road as the day nears its conclusion, which will certainly be a useful asset in his attempt to reach the next step on the podium this time around.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Jérémy Jännick.

August 27, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km

After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.

With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.

Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.

Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.

Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 26, 2014