Tag: WorldTour

Gent-Wevelgem 2014 Preview

A Cobbled Classic for the Fastest Riders in the Pack

E3 Harelbeke is in the books! Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, facing questions of his form after a disappointing Milano-Sanremo, won a commanding victory over Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas, surviving attempts from the peloton to reel in their late attack. Now, it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem, Sunday’s roughly 230 kilometer journey from Deinze to Wevelgem near the Flemish coast. Its trademark Kemmelberg is a steep, challenging obstacle on the way to the finish, but Gent-Wevelgem has been one for the sprinters in recent years (though Peter Sagan used a late attack, and not his elite sprint, to win last year’s edition). As such, the field is full of fast men. Most of the top names are here, and their teams will be focused on bringing them to the line safely.

Peter Sagan, winner here last year, has the climbing legs to make it over the bumps along the way and the kick to outsprint most of the starters to the line. VeloHuman wasn’t really concerned about his form after Milano-Sanremo, but some observers were; he put those concerns to bed with a masterful performance at E3 Harelbeke. It’s hard to see a select group making the final kilometers without Sagan in it, and he has one of the fastest finishes in the race, fast enough to contend with anyone here. If he feels threatened by some of the bigger sprinters, he also has the ability to power away on his own, as he did in 2013.

Omega Pharma might have had a strong bid to challenge Sagan here, but health issues are putting their chances in doubt. Tom Boonen has won this race three times. Like Sagan, he can make it over bumps and can get into late moves, or initiate them himself, but he also has the kick to be in the mix in a bunch finish. However, he injured his thumb in E3 Harelbeke, and that injury could keep him from making an impact at Gent-Wevelgem; keep an eye here or at the new VH Twitter account, @VeloHuman, for updates. He’ll be in my Top 10 for now. Zdenek Stybar is another option, but G-W might not be difficult enough for him to be a true contender. Stijn Vandenbergh looked great in E3, but his finishing kick could leave him lacking here. Pure sprinter Mark Cavendish could have been the guy for OPQS (his 5th place in Sanremo shows he’s capable in 2014 of making it to the line in a tough one day race, and with the elite Belgian squad to deliver him, Gent-Wevelgem could have been within his reach), but a fever will sideline him Sunday. Perhaps they will turn to Nikolas Maes in his stead?

Mark Cavendish’s ever-present sprinting rival Andre Greipel will make the start. The Lotto-Belisol rider mentioned both cramps and a gearing issue as problematic for him in MSR, but whatever the reason, he did not make an impression there. Still, with a strong team to help him overcome the Belgian landscape, he’s a great bet in a sprint finish. Lotto looked very good at E3 Harelbeke, and Gent-Wevelgem could suit their star fast man.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was not in the least bit troubled by the rigors of Milano-Sanremo, and he showed an impressive kick after a hard-fought day in that race, taking a commanding victory ahead of some top talent. Clearly at the top level right now, Kristoff will look to deliver again in Gent-Wevelgem. He has a knack for winning bunch sprints in the cobbled classics, even if those sprints are contesting 4th place behind the day’s last surviving attackers. This race offers a great opportunity for sprinters like Kristoff to actually contest the victory. Luca Paolini is a fine second. Another rider who has made a career out of a impressive kicks following long days is Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, who was robbed of his chance at Milano-Sanremo glory by an untimely puncture in the closing kilometers. He will take on Gent-Wevelgem looking for some shred of vindication. He managed to make it into the Top 10 of last year’s Tour of Flanders and the 2012 edition of E3, so he has shown at least some ability on cobbled Belgian roads. On the fine form he’s showing this year, with the added fuel of a chip on the shoulder, Degenkolb should challenge for victory here.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was unable to hang on in Milano-Sanremo but this race should be more manageable, and he looks good this year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo was a well-placed finisher in MSR and might be an even better bet here, with Filippo Pozzato (who has notched a few top 10s here) another strong option for the team, especially if some of the top sprinters are weeded out. Orica-Greenedge sends Matt Goss, desperate to show he still has what it takes. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar looked great in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke, and he has a very strong supporting cast to deliver him here. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland has looked great in several races this year, and he, too, has a very strong supporting cast. Other contenders looking for a sprint finish, reduced or otherwise, include Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Tinkoff-Saxo’s triple option of Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, and Michael Morkov, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (winner in 2009) and Bernie Eisel (winner in 2010), NetApp’s Sam Bennett, WGG’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and BMC’s Thor Hushovd.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara could try to animate the race with a solo move. A crash with around 40 km to go in E3 made it all the more difficult for Cancellara to get to the front of affairs, but his 8th place there showed good cobbled form. Unfortunately for Cancellara, the G-W parcours favors him less. Still, he’s shown a good finishing kick so far in 2014 should he need to use it. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, also on blazing form this spring (hampered in that race by a number of mechanical issues, he still nabbed 5th at E3 Harelbeke), will look for getaway opportunities as well. Teammate Lars Boom is sure to do the same; watch out for fireworks from Belkin. The parcours will make victory from a late attack difficult, but Sky’s Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas (looking great right now), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, BMC’s Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, Omega Pharma’s Zdenek Stybar, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, and WGG’s Bjorn Leukemans are other candidates to go for a long one.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel
Other Top Contenders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Borut Bozic, Sacha Modolo, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Tyler Farrar

VeloHuman has just joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more news and views on the pro peloton.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Vlaam.

March 28, 2014
E3 Harelbeke 2014 Preview

WorldTouring on The Cobbles

On Friday, the WorldTour finally arrives on the cobbles. Omloop Het Nieuewblad and Dwars door Vlanderen paved the way for the top level contests, which start this weekend with E3 Harelbeke and continue through Sunday with Gent-Wevelgem (which will, of course, be previewed here as well!). Friday’s E3 is a 211 kilometer race through West Flanders offers a classic Flemish profile of ups and downs and cobbled stretches guaranteed to host constant attacks and counter-attacks. The parcours is very well-balanced — with fifeen or so sharp inclines rising to meet the peloton and cobbles and crosswinds to boot, E3 wears down pretenders and provides several potential launching pads for solo moves, but ultimately, the road from start to finish is not so difficult as to guarantee victory for a small group or single rider. Sprint finishes are more than possible here. In 2012, Tom Boonen launched a series of late attacks, none of which stuck, only take victory at the head of a bunch sprint anyway. On the other hand, in 2013, Fabian Cancellara attacked a full 35 kilometers away from the finish on the Oude Kwaremont climb, zooming up the cobbles and staying away from the chasers the whole way home. The multitude of potential scenarios makes E3 a tough race to call, but there are a number of riders with the potential to win this race a few different ways.

Before I get to the predictions: don’t forget to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis of the biggest races on the calendar!

The Riders to Watch

First on the list of favorites is the aforementioned Fabian Cancellara. Trek’s star has won this race three times, each due to his superior ability to attack from the peloton. He does not seem to have lost any of his trademark power in 2014, proving his form with a 2nd place in the brutal Milano-Sanremo (as well as a short ITT also good for 2nd place at Tirreno-Adriatico). His sprint also looks sharp as ever, as he managed those runner-up honors in Sanremo by outgunning some of the fastest men in the sport to the finish line in a hectic bunch gallop. If he can whittle down the lead group, he’ll be able to hold his own in a group finish. Cancellara is a veteran and a masterful racer with a killer instinct, and he has proven his high level form leading into a race he knows how to win, making him the favorite among favorites. Having Stijn Devolder along for company will help as well—the two-time Monument winner is an able lieutenant and a legitimate second.

2nd in last year’s running was Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, who beat out Daniel Oss and Geraint Thomas that year in a sprint for 2nd among the attackers who couldn’t hang with Spartacus. Though probably faster in a sprint than Cancellara and more able to handle serious climbs, Sagan has not shown the same level of solo power output that Cancellara can muster. Still, he gets better every year, not just physically but also as a race tactician. Milano-Sanremo wore him down to the point of being unable to contest in the final sprint but E3 is more than 80 kilometers shorter, and it’s unlikely that the weather conditions will come close to being as miserable as they were in Italy. Should Sagan manage to hang with Cancellara or whoever is the last man up the road (he’ll have the talented Oscar Gatto to help with that), he’ll have more left in the tank when it comes to the final race to the line than he did in MSR. He has not blown the doors off of any races this year, but his form has looked good, and I think he’s going to be reaching his peak soon. What’s more, he’s likely to get help tracking Cancellara from a few other riders.

Chief among them is the third of the big three favorites to contend in this race, Tom Boonen. The OPQS rider has won E3 a record four times, and he’s done it both in solo moves and as the first among a group of sprinters to make the finish line. However, though Boonen and Cancellara have dominated the spring classics for the better part of a decade, it has been some time since the Belgian was at his best and able to contend with his Swiss rival. Strong performances early this season have shown that he is back on track after injury derailed his 2013. At Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, Boonen beat the strong Belkin duo of Sep Vanmarcke and Moreno Hofland to the line. He was very active in this week’s Dwars Ddoor Vlaanderen as well. To win here, he knows he’ll have to play a delicate game, working with potentially faster sprinters like Sagan to keep Cancellara in check only to try to drop them as the finish nears. Fortunately for him, Niki Terpstra (winner of DDV) and Zdenek Stybar don the same uniform. Stybar makes for a fine wild card in this race, showing a great sprint right now and a surprising knack for getting over steep climbs. His ability to solo away on the tough ascents will put pressure on Boonen’s opponents, but don’t count out Stybar going for it all himself; OPQS really believes that the future is now for the cyclocross star, and won’t hesitate to let him take chances if he feels good.

Challenging these top favorites and their teammates are a number of brave sprinters and more traditional aggressive classics-style riders alike. John Degenkolb, who hit some serious bad luck with a puncture in the final kilometers of Milano-Sanremo after being tipped as a hot favorite in that race, will be out for revenge via a sprint finish. He was 6th in E3 in 2012, and while he may not be known as a cobbled classics specialist, he has the experience and the endurance for success here. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo (not much of a record on cobbles but obviously very fast and tough as well), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bernie Eisel, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, IAM’s Heinrich Haussler, and perhaps surprisingly, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar (winner of the DDV bunch sprint for 2nd place) could all contend in a sprint finish.

Several other riders will hope they can force selection to drop the faster finishers. Sep Vanmarcke looked very strong in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, and he’ll hope to turn high placings in those races into a bona fide win here. He was 5th in the 2012 bunch sprint E3 that Boonen won, and in last year’s Paris-Roubaix, he showed the remarkable ability to stay with Fabian Cancellara on the big stage. The 25-year-old Belgian will look for opportunities to strike at this year’s E3. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato won this race back in 2009, kicking past Tom Boonen in the small lead group for the victory. He showed resurgent form late last year, and he will be a danger man when small groups start to form late in the game. Ian Stannard‘s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad victory shows that he is in top shape right now, and his endurance will suit him well in a race likely to feature countless attacks to blow things up at the front. Teammate Geraint Thomas looked great prior to a crash in Paris-Nice, and if he has recovered, he is another strong option to survive the road, the conditions, and the attacks. BMC’s Taylor Phinney, Daniel Oss, and Greg van Avermaet, Astana’s Borut Bozic (3rd in Dwars door Vlaanderen) and Francesco Gavazzi, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, Nick Nuyens and Johan Vansummeren, Lotto’s Jurgen Roelandts (2nd here in 2011) and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel (6th last year, and improving on his early season form recently), Orica’s typically versatile cast of Daryl Impey, Luke Durbridge and Jens Keukeleire, and Katusha’s Luca Paolini (8th last year and still going strong at 37). Watch out on the Kapelberg, Paterberg, Oude Kwaremont, Kanemelkbeekstrat (aren’t these names fun?), and Tiegemberg.
Update: Alejandro Valverde is now confirmed as starting. Hard to see him outclassing the cobbled experts, but you never know!

The winner of this race not only nabs the day’s glory, the race’s prize money and WorldTour points, and a place in the cycling history books, but also a likely nomination as a favorite heading into the cobbled races to follow. Much is at stake in this Friday’s E3 Harelbeke. Couple the stakes with an always interesting profile and some top classics riders in top form, and I think we’re in for a show.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Peter Sagan, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet, Ian Stannard, Filippo Pozzato, Edvald Boasson Hagen, John Degenkolb

Follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty of live analysis during this weekend’s classic duo, and check back soon for the preview of the second half of said duo, Gent-Wevelgem!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Vincent Oord.

March 26, 2014
Milano-Sanremo 2014 Post-race Impressions: Kristoff Delivers

Takeaways from La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

Milano-Sanremo 2014 is in the books! The VeloHuman race preview noted that whoever won this race would truly have to earn his glory, and after 300 rain-soaked kilometers, I’d say he did. The biggest takeaway from this race is obviously that Alexander Kristoff is capable of pulling off the big win. If you’ve watched many bike races in the last year, you probably already knew that the Katusha sprinter is the real deal. If you read this particular site, you’re definitely aware: in the end-of-2013 thoughts published in November, VH said, “Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” I’d say he’s made good on that promise. The number of major news outlets calling him a total surprise was a bit shocking to me. He was among the top 15 or so with the bookmakers, he was one of my Top 10 for this race, and every other preview site I read named his name, so he didn’t exactly come from nowhere. Still, that big win was something that seemed to constantly elude him. His Tour de Suisse stage win last year was his very first WorldTour win. With Sunday’s performance, we can be a bit more confident that Kristoff really does have that killer instinct required to pull of the victory (it wasn’t close at the line). He’s got to be viewed as a favorite in sprint finishes over the next few weeks of classics-riding. Luca Paolini also deserves some serious praise for the job he did keeping the pace high and guiding Kristoff over the obstacles on the way to the finish in Sanremo. Katusha, known for their climbers, has done a commendable job prepping for the spring classics, and I think we can look forward to more from them in the near future.

The other big takeaway, or at least, the second biggest news item, is that Peter Sagan didn’t win. Not only did he not win, he wasn’t even in the top 5, rolling in 10th. Granted, he sort of gave up at the very end of the sprint after it was clear that he was a bit too far behind and boxed in as well, but no matter how you slice it, he didn’t look like he had it in him to make the podium. It’s a disappointment for him, but I am not going to read too much into it just yet. While Sagan was the favorite for the race, he was by no means a lock. The removal of the big climbs at the end put a dent in his chances at dropping other sprinters, and the length of the race was a bit longer than the sorts of contests Sagan has proven he can win. His form may also be a tad below what it was in last year’s race. All this to say: while I think it will be a blow to morale for Sagan to come away from the race without a win or even a podium spot, I will still have him among the favorites at E3, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Tour of Flanders (which may be his true goal this season), races that may provide more launching pads for victory, and fewer miles to wear him down.

Speaking of all those races that Fabian Cancellara will be another favorite in: Spartacus nabbed a surprising second place at MSR by being the second best sprinter after 300 kilometers. Despite the presence of riders who tend to be faster to the line, Cancellara’s otherworldly endurance left him enough in the tank to land himself in the runner-up position. He seemed pretty frustrated after the race, but I’m not really sure there could have been a better outcome. I was quite impressed that he even managed a 2nd place: with no Pompeiana climb, it was always going to be very hard for Cancellara to get away. I’d say his outlook is pretty good for the next few weeks.

Ben Swift was something of a revelation in this race, nabbing 3rd. He’s had some high-level road wins in his young career, but injury has gotten in the way of his pursuit of victory in the past. In a race that one might have expected Team Sky to be riding for Edvald Boasson Hagen, Swift shone as the best rider in black and blue on the day, and he delivered for Sky with a podium-level sprint at the end of a very long day at the office. At the moment he seems scheduled to ride Pais Vasco, which may offer a few opportunities for him to put his versatile skillset on display. Boasson Hagen, meanwhile, seems to struggle in this race, so I am not sure what to make of his fading on Sunday in terms of judging his form leading into the cobbled classics.

John Degenkolb will be left wondering what might have been, after a late puncture ruined his shot at glory. Fortunately, we will get to see him again soon on the cobbles. Mark Cavendish will be disappointed that he didn’t get the win despite being involved in the bunch sprint at the end, but as Kristoff pointed out after the race, a sprint after 300 km is quite different from one after 200. Andre Greipel stated he had both cramps and mechanical troubles at the end of the race. Gerald Ciolek got the rain and the bunch sprint he probably wanted, but couldn’t manage more than 9th (though, I’d rate that as a moderate success, as I didn’t even expect that). Juan Jose Lobato took up JJ Rojas’s mantle, nabbing 4th for Movistar. It’s a good result for him, and he’s off to a pretty good year with some strong finishes so far. Sacha Modolo was another of the VeloHuman Top 10, and he finished right around where I expected. Like anyone who came to that finish line after Kristoff, he’ll probably be disappointed, but a top 10 in MSR is a pretty good sign of ability going forward. Zdenek Stybar pulled a fine 7th place while also working for Cav, as he continues to make his case for inclusion among the favorites in the spring races for serious hardmen. With more climbing and more cobbles to come, he’s going to be mentioned up there with the Cancellaras, Sagans, and Boonens as a contender when the peloton takes on the big classics in Northern Europe.

Lastly, a chapeau to Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t think there was any way he could win this race, given the lack of significant inclines, but he tried and made the race exciting with a solo attack and divebomb descent. Hopefully, next year’s route will be known further in advance, giving the top riders time to decide on whether to attend based on what the road will actually look like, and whether it will really suit their strengths.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the VeloHuman Volta a Catalunya 2014 preview! The race got underway this morning, with Luka Mezgec winning a sprint to the line, and the next few stages look like they’ll be pretty action-packed. I will be live-tweeting analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. And of course, VeloHuman’s E3 Harelbeke preview is coming soon, so be sure to check back in a few days for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by brassynn.

March 24, 2014
Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2014 Preview

The Scenario: A Climber’s Dream Course in Catalunya

Just one day after the first sprinter-friendly Milano-Sanremo in years, the Volta a Catalunya, a climber’s dream course, begins about an hour north of Barcelona in Calella, Spain. 2014’s Volta a Catalunya, like past editions of the race, offers a parcours rife with uphill action, including a third stage dominated by Alt de la Creueta, a climb that caps a larger section of over 30 kilometers at an over 3% on average grade. That brutal stage finishes atop the Category 1 summit of La Molina, but the riders will have little time to rest before embarking on the fourth stage, where they will be welcomed by three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish at the Vallter 2000 ski resort. Stage 6 looks like the only day that the GC contenders will try to take comfortably, with almost 60 downhill or flat kilometers into the finish. While not as demanding as the two aforementioned high mountain days, stages 1, 2, 5, and 7 will require the overall contenders to be on their toes, with late climbs likely to inspire attacks. In short, this is not a race for the faint of heart, or the heavy of frame. The parcours has drawn quite a startlist, one that will pit some of the top GC climbers against one another in a contest of early season form.

Before I dive in, the important notes: follow the still-practically-brand-new Twitter account @VeloHuman for plenty of live analysis during the race (and check it out soon for live Milano-Sanremo updates and analysis)! MSR post-race thoughts will be up not long after today’s contest, and the next preview on the docket is the 28th’s E3 Harelbeke, so you might as well just keep this window open for a few days to come!

All-rounder Roundup

Chris Froome dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain, but he’ll be lining up for the Volta a Catalunya at the head of Sky’s finest to make a bid for victory. He reminded the peloton of his supremacy atop Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman in late February, but he hasn’t raced since, making the form, and the general health, something of an unknown. He’ll need all his ability against the field. Fortunately, trusted lieutenant Richie Porte will be there to play second. Porte was forced to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico for health reasons himself, but he looked sharp there before he left. Together with climbing talents Mikel Nieve and David Lopez, Sky’s top GC riders will look to pick up results at the WorldTour level. It is hard to predict how they will do, given health concerns, but if nagging issues are resolved by the time the race begins, obviously they’re quite the one-two punch, even without a time trial in the race.

A revitalized Alberto Contador (who “won” this race in 2011, but was stripped of the title as part of his doping penlaties) took Tirreno-Adriatico by storm, and he’ll attend Catalunya looking to further prove his improved form against those riders who were not in attendance during his spectacular Stage 5 performance in Italy, ie. Froome, Porte, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Contador’s team will not include his chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger or Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka was a late scratch, leaving him a bit understaffed with lieutenants. The big question for Contador is whether he can maintain the otherworldly level he was on last week into this week’s contest.

Joaquim Rodriguez leads Katusha’s charge alongside Daniel Moreno. Purito was 2nd here last year and won in 2010, and he looked on fine form in Oman. Moreno was very strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, among the best climbers in the race. With no troublesome time trials to put them behind the likes of Froome and Porte, Catalunya will likely see the usual uphill fireworks from these two, with plenty of potential stage wins in play. Moreno and Rodriguez are both known for explosiveness and fast finishes, but they’ve also gotten better and better on the long haul climbs, and they’ll need to be at their best with a few ascents that seem to go on forever in this race.

4th in last year’s edition was Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, who is coming off a sharp 2nd place in Tirreno-Adriatico. He was not able to match Alberto Contador’s uphill ability there, but he also had not taken part in a stage race in almost two months. I think he will be a bit more acclimated to the grind now. The unrelenting climbing will suit his skillset perfectly.
Update: there are reports that Quintana is taking antibiotics to get over a cold, which will obviously make things harder for him here.

Last year’s winner (and prior to that, two time runner-up) Daniel Martin, was made for this race and its parcours. The pure climber sealed his victory in 2013 with a fearless uphill attack on the 4th stage that left Purito and Quintana in its wake. His past results here might make him a bigger favorite in this race if his form weren’t such a question mark. With his eyes on a defense of Monument classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then a Giro starting in his home country of Ireland, Martin’s goals may have shifted somehwat this year. He’s still a strong contender, but Ryder Hesjedal (form also a question mark), late addition Andrew Talansky, and Tom Danielson are other cards for Garmin to play should Martin not be at peak form just yet.

AG2R sends a fearsome trio to Catalunya, led by Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur. Questions about his shape and form were more than answered by his dominance in P-N, and Catalunya is another opportunity for him to make a statement, this time against better GC-style competition. Domenico Pozzovivo had a fine Tirreno-Adriatico, notching a 6th place. Romain Bardet‘s chances at Paris-Nice were derailed by an early crash, but he’ll be yet another uphill option for AG2R in Spain this week.

Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran seemed 100% committed to the cause of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, and did not challenge for GC himself. Still, I believe he is in good form, and probably looking for a chance to prove it; against many the top climbers in the sport, he’ll have a good chance this week. New teammate Thomas de Gendt took his last pro victory in the final stage of this race in 2013. Perhaps he’ll look to 2014 as an opportunity to get back on track. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen looked very strong in Oman, second on the decisive climb to Chris Froome, but had to abandon Paris-Nice early due to illness. If he still has the kind of form that he showed in Oman, he has a fine opportunity here, with a chance to put his uphill diesel engine to work on these long climbs. Teammate Samuel Sanchez has had a great deal of success in this race over the years, winning stages and landing several strong GC showings, though it’s hard to guess his form right now.

Chris Horner abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with tendinitis, but he looked sharp before then; teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec made last year’s top 10. Wilco Kelderman leads a strong Belkin team, and he’ll hope Cataluyna will provide the chance for glory than an untimely mechanical stole from him in Paris-Nice; he looked strong in that race. Laurens Ten Dam and Steven Kruisjwijk are good support options. Ivan Basso struggled in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he’ll look to rebound for Cannondale here. Warren Barguil leads Giant-Shimano up the Spanish climbs. Various ailments have kept Thibaut Pinot out of races early this year, but he took 8th place here last year and obviously the profile suits him if he’s healthy; Alexandre Geniez, Arnold Jeanneason and Kenny Elissonde are all strong support riders or backup options if need be for FDJ. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler will try to bring that team some success on up-down terrain that seems to suit them. Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest impressions of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Colombian climbing talent will love this time trial-less, route; meanwhile, teammate Robert Kiserlovski made it two in the top 10 for Trek at T-A, giving a team in sore need of GC contenders a surprising pair of them here. Lotto’s Jurgen van den Broeck will look to get on track after a series of disappointments this year. Astana sends Janez Brajkovic, Mikel Landa, and young Fabio Aru. Cofidis sends 2013 Tour top 10 finisher Daniel Navarro, who looked good in Andalucia. Caja Rural sends David Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanchez, who also looked good in Andalucia. The Pro Continental squads will have their work cut out for them against so many top climbers leading top climbing squads here.
Update: Top-notch climber Jakob Fuglsang is a late addition to the Astana squad and therefore joins the realm of outside contenders.

Stagehunters

With so many stages for the GC style climbers, staggeringly few sprinters are even bothering to make the trip (no time trials means there aren’t any chrono men seeking ITT wins either). Stage 6 is likely to be contested by a pretty select list of riders in a mass gallop. AG2R’s Sam Dumoulin (who has excelled in this race, taking three stages in the past) Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo (coming off a broken collarbone), Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, Lotto’s Gregory Henderson, and OGE’s Leigh Howard look to be the most capable fast men on the start list. The first three also happen to be fairly versatile riders, for whom some of the hillier stages are not out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Roux is the sort of rider who might take advantage of some of the lumpier days. It seems inevitable that Caja Rural’s Amets Txurruka and Trek’s Jens Voigt will spend some time up the road looking for long-range victories. At least with so few riders making the start who aren’t focused on their own or their teammates’ GC aspirations, the stagehunters will have less competition for their one-day goals!

VeloHuman GC Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Challengers: Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the E3 Harelbeke preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by -Eric.

March 23, 2014
Milano-Sanremo 2014 Preview

Getting Back to Basics in La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

2014’s Milano-Sanremo harkens back to a past age, in which La Primavera was a marquee goal for the tougher sprinters in the peloton. The race was supposed to finish with a climb of the Pompeiana, making it even more climber-oriented than it has been in recent years, but damaged roads forced a route change. The climb of Le Manie had already been taken out to make way for the new ascent up the Pompeiana, and it has not been returned to the route, meaning the sprinters suddenly have a chance to contend again. Still, there are some lumps to overcome, and it’s a 294 kilometer race, and as might be expected of the already grueling spring Monument, rain is in the forecast for Sunday; suffice it to say, there are enough variables to leave this race wide open for the taking.

VeloHuman will be live tweeting analysis of Sunday’s action, so be sure you’re following @VeloHuman on Twitter. And if you’re looking for straight predictions, as usual, my top 10 contenders are at the end of the post.

The Contenders

The flat-enough parcours is drawing some of the peloton’s fastest finishers to Milano-Sanremo, and with so little data to draw on in the early season, it’s hard to name a favorite for the race. The most obvious candidate is last year’s runner-up Peter Sagan. If a bunch sprint arrives, Sagan has shown an ability to hang with the best on a good day, especially after a few tough climbs. If an attack goes, Sagan will be sure to follow. In either eventuality, Sagan can nab a victory, and that’s what makes him the most likely winner here. Working against him is the simple fact that he is not the fastest sprinter in this race, and in the event of a mass gallop, he may be facing Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish, with their elite leadouts. He’ll look to keep a brutal pace over the few climbs that remain in this race, the Poggio and Cipressa, in an effort to whittle down his opponents.

2008’s winner Fabian Cancellara will be sure to join in on the fight to drop the likes of Cavendish and Greipel, as he’d be even less likely than Sagan to win if they were to make it to the line. The 5.6 km, 4.1% average grade Cipressa and the 3.7 km, 3.7% average grade Poggio are not the most challenging summits on Earth, but after 250 kilometers, they’ll hurt a lot more than you might think. Cancellara, like Sagan, will look for a winning move, and a chance to divebomb a rainy descent on the way to the finish line.

For the first time in years, Cancellara and Sagan face the possbility of the high-powered sprinters making it to the finish. Milano-Sanremo is still the longest race on the calendar, and there are still some climbs to manage, and it’s going to be raining, so nothing will come easy to the sprint teams, but a battle royale among the gallopers is more than just a possibility. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb has the form and the versatility to be in contention to the very end. Of the riders not named Sagan with the firepower to beat Cavendish and Greipel in a straight up sprint, he is probably the least likely to be dropped on the climbs, or whittled down by the pace to a point of overwhelming late fatigue. He’s had success in the classics in recent years and he looks good so far this year, with his Paris-Nice stage win and points jersey serving as ample evidence of form. Moreover, he’ll be able to take advantage of the well-marshalled GSH leadout that so often pulls Marcel Kittel to the line. Unfortunately for Degenkolb, some of Kittel’s main rivals might make it to the finish as well. In the event that no late attack stays away, all eyes will be on Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish and Lotto-Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Tom Boonen withdrew from the race after a family tragedy, but OPQS still has a typically elite squad to support Cavendish here with a world-class leadout, which includes former winner Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw (who, in the event that Mark Cavendish misses out on the bunch sprint for whatever reason, suddenly become contenders themselves). Meanwhile, Andre Greipel has a great chance to take his first big one-day win. He has shown improving ability to get over harder ascents in recent years and he showed blazing form early on in 2014. The past few weeks, he has quieted down somewhat, but Milano-Sanremo is sure to elicit a high octane effort from the German and his top-flight leadout squad.

In a potential bunch sprint finish, other names we could see matched up against these blue bloods include last year’s winner Gerald Ciolek of MTN-Qhubeka, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff (who top 10ed in MSR, Flanders, AND Paris-Roubaix last year), Lampre’s Sacha Modolo (who is coming off of brilliant performances in a number of early season races), FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who is focuing hard on the classics and can handle a climb or two), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge (a rider who has shown Degenkolb-style versatility in his first few years in the peloton, and who looked quite capable of managing tougher hills in the recent Paris-Nice), and Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (who was one of the strongest riders in March’s Omloop Het Niewsblad). Outsiders in a heads-up sprint, reduced or otherwise, include Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (a bit disappointing in Paris-Nice, but a candidate to surprise everyone with his elite top speed), BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov, and Bardiani-CSF’s Filippo Fortin, Sonny Colbrelli, and Enrico Battaglin (hard to say who gets the nod among the young Italians), IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler (2nd in 2009) and up-and-coming Matteo Pelucchi, and AG2R’s Davide Appolonio.

A number of teams come to Milano-Sanremo packed with riders hoping to get separation and avoid a bunch sprint. Astana’s roster seems built purely for this goal. Vincenzo Nibali had hoped this year would give him a chance to nab a victory in the Italian monument, but without the big climbs, his bid for glory took a serious hit. Still, he’ll be sure to put pressure on the fast men and he’ll appreciate the bad weather making it harder to follow him on the descents. Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Maxim Iglinskiy are all legitimate options for a win from a small group of escapees. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is guaranteed to be looking for the same opportunities. Had the route planned for 2014 remained unchanged, Gilbert would be in a great position to nab an MSR win, but as it stands, he’ll have to up the aggression to drop the faster finishers. Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney are also likely to fire off attacks to keep the tension high. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, Garmin-Sharp’s very hot Tom-Jelte Slagter and wily Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, and Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi are likely looking to double down on late attacks as well. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is an interesting case; he’s a former winner of this race who looked very strong early in 2014, but, like Gilbert, he would probably have favored a tougher course. As it stands, he’s likely to attack, but OGE might suspect that Michael Matthews presents a better opportunity to win the race. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Filippo Pozzato (a former winner), OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Zdenek Stybar, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot (hot off of Paris-Nice) and Lotto-Belisol’s Tony Gallopin may look for similar opportunities to get involved in late attacks, even if their teams may see their bunch sprinters as the first option.

The late climbs are likely to bring out some of these opportunists, but they will have to work very hard to leave the fast men in the dust (or mud, as it were, given the likelihood of rain). Whoever wins this race, after 294 kilometers of riding, he will have truly earned the Monumental honor.

VeloHuman Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan

Podium: John Degenkolb, Andre Greipel

Top 10: Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, Fabian Cancellara, Arnaud Demare, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Matthews, Sacha Modolo

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the Volta a Catalunya preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Marianne de Wit.

March 21, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

Contador Dominant in Italy

Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

What’s Next?

Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 18, 2014