Tag: Carlos Betancur

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Pinzolo › Aprica – 177km

The Giro peloton took a rest day after a challenging Stage 15 won by Mikel Landa, but things will get hectic again immediately on Stage 16. The riders will take on the first of five categorized climbs right from the startline. There is practically not a single meter of flat on this stage. After the opening Cat. 2, the riders will take on a fast descent and then another Cat. 2, and then a very long descent into a Cat. 3, roughly the midpoint of the stage. From there it’s another descent into the foot of the brutal Cat. 1 Passo del Mortirolo climb. 11.8 km at a 10.9% average gradient, it’s an extremely steep road to the top, one that will likely see the stronger riders putting on the pressure and blowing the peloton to pieces.

Over the top of the Mortirolo, the riders will take on another long descent into the foot of a Cat. 3 climb to the finish line. It’s long at 14km but not particularly steep with a 3.5% average gradient.

Five categorized ascents on the parcours will make Stage 16 a major target for the Giro’s blue jersey hopefuls. The fact that the climbing starts right away will benefit the uphill specialists trying to get up the road. With the constant up and down likely to hinder any organized chase efforts, this will be a great opportunity for the breakaway riders, though regardless of who is in the lead group, it should provide an opportunity for the GC riders to battle it out as well.

The Mortirolo will offer opportunities to attack but it’s still a very long way to go from the top. With the low gradient on the final climb, a small group could come to the line together, whether it’s a small group of breakaway riders or a small group of survivors from the pack. Carlos Betancur has plenty of incentive to get into the breakaway on this stage in pursuit of KOM Points, and he’s shown an ability to get up the road so far in this race. He has a very fast finish, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’ll be very dangerous on this stage.

Beñat Intxausti will of course be looking to get into the breakaway in defense of his KOM jersey. He’s not as fast at the line as others, but he’s got a powerful engine and might be able to ride others off his wheel in pursuit of this stage win. Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, on the other hand, does have a bit of pop for a fast finish, and could be in the mix if he’s allowed up the road (nearly 10 minutes down on GC), as might Igor Anton and Ion Izagirre.

Ryder Hesjedal should like the look of the profile and his chances from the breakaway. If he can get up the road, he’ll have a nice chance at victory in Stage 16.

Stefano Pirazzi, Steven Kruijswijk, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, Franco Pellizotti, Sebastien Reichenbach, Mikel Nieve, Vasil Kiryienka, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, and Damiano Cunego are others on the list of strong candidates for long-range success here.

If this comes down to a select group of GC favorites instead of the long-range attackers, this could come down to the fastest finishers still surviving among the all-rounders. Damiano Caruso packs a bit of punch, as does Fabio Aru, who would probably like to pick up more stage wins in the race even if he can’t beat Alberto Contador for the pink jersey. Caruso will have the added benefit of probably getting some leeway to go up the road late in the race if he sees an opportunity, as he’s far enough out of GC contention to not threaten Contador’s pink jersey. Speaking of Contador, he obviously can’t be counted out on a stage with a climb as challenging as the Mortirolo, even if it does come so far from the finish.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 16 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 25, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Marostica › Madonna di Campiglio – 165km

Now that the stage 14 time trial has shaken up the GC (Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win was perhaps overshadowed by his teammate Richie Porte losing another chunk of time to his rivals) and put Alberto Contador back on top of the overall leaderboard, the peloton heads to the mountains.

Stage 15 is a tough climbing stage. Things get started with a long, low-gradient, uncategorized ascent into the Cat. 2 climb of La Fricca. From there, it’s a long descent and a few rollers before the harsh Cat. 1 Passo Daone climb, 8.4km at a 9.2% average gradient. A steep downhill from the top of that climb leads into an uncategorized ascent into the final categorized challenge of the day, the Cat. 1 Madonna di Campigilio climb to a summit finish, 15.5km at 5.9%.

The three official climbs and the other unmarked uphill sections would make this a challenging day no matter where it found itself in the Giro stage order, but coming on the heels of a brutal almost-60km time trial, it will hurt. As with any up-and-down climber-friendly day, this one will give the breakaway a chance at success, but with the added factor of following up a day that most certainly wore out the GC contenders, it seems like a good bet that the breakaway riders who saved their legs on Stage 14 will have a great chance of going the distance on Stage 15. Even if the GC riders were completely fresh, Tinkoff-Saxo has showed little interest in closing down the breakaways so far in this race. That makes it a really tough one to predict, but there are a few likely protagonists.

Beñat Intxausti will want to get up the road on this stage in pursuit of KOM points. His hold on the blue jersey is tenuous, and there are plenty of points on offer here. If he can get into the break, he’ll be very dangerous. He’s in excellent form and these climbs suit him well. Teammates Ion Izagirre and Giovanni Visconti will also be worth watching.

Carlos Betancur is another rider hunting that KOM title, and he seems to improve daily in this Giro. This stage will really test his endurance. If he can get into the break, he’ll probably be able to outpunch Intxausti for the earlier KOMs, but things could get tough on the final climb when the lead group starts to get whittled down. In any case, Betancur is a dangerous rider on this climb-happy parcours.

Ryder Hesjedal is far enough out of GC contention to get some breathing room here, and he’s looked pretty good so far in this race. Cannondale-Garmin will almost certainly put a rider up the road early on; the question is whether it will be Hesjedal, or the also-strong Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson. All of them are danger men from the breakaway.

Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Esteban Chaves, Franco Pellizotti, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, Steven Kruijswijk, and Ilnur Zakarin are others on a very long list of potential long-range contenders here.

If the GC favorites do fight it out for stage honors, a flying Alberto Contador is the obvious choice, though he might have less incentive to attack now that he’s healthily in the GC lead again. Fabio Aru may look to get aggressive on the steep slopes to put pressure on Contador and attempt to claw back time, but expect Tinkoff-Saxo to be watching him very closely. His teammate Mikel Landa, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Rigoberto Urán, Leopold König, now-way-out-of-contention Richie Porte, and Damiano Caruso, meanwhile, probably seem like less of a threat to Contador and could get some leeway to attack on the Madonna di Campigilio climb.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Beñat Intxausti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 15 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015
Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

Contador Dominant in Italy

Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

What’s Next?

Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 18, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 Preview

Cycling Season Heating Up

The Tours of Qatar and Oman, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad (which showed us a seemingly improved Sky Classics Squad) and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne (which serves as yet another piece of evidence that Boonen is Back) kept February interesting. Welcome to March, and the 0 to 60 feeling of going from scattered reasonably popular races to TWO simultaneous WorldTour stage races followed by a Monument classic. It’s pretty much nonstop racing from here until October. I know I’m ready for the excitement.

If you missed the recent announcement, VeloHuman is now on Twitter! Say hello if you like, and follow @VeloHuman for more news and views. And when you’re finished reading this preview, remember to come back soon for the Tirreno-Adriatico edition!

All-rounder Roundup

With only a few truly grueling climbs and no time trials, Paris-Nice projects to be a race open to more than just your typical top-shelf Grand Tour GC riders. With an abundance of downhill finishes, this year’s race to the sun should be see close General Classification, and the fight for bonus seconds will be fierce.

The list of contenders in such an open race is long. It might have logically started with last year’s winner, Richie Porte. However, in a late breaking update, reigning champion Richie Porte will not be returning to Paris-Nice. Sky reports that he will replace Chris Froome at Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Geraint Thomas, looking sharp this year, will now step up to take Porte’s place as team leader. His skills make him an asset on the undulating profile. David Lopez, who finished 2013 with some of the best racing of his career, provides another great support rider and potential fill-in.

Unlike Porte, Vincenzo Nibali hasn’t shown any signs of changing his mind on Paris-Nice, and he leads a powerful Astana squad. He was hot and cold in the Tour of Oman, but he tends to perform when the lights come on, and his descending skills will serve him well here. He has the muscle to back him. Tanel Kangert, Jakob Fuglsang, and Lieuwe Westra (2nd overall and a stage winner in 2012) are all very dangerous.

Nibali is an obvious choices for any stage race, but the nature of this profile offers a distinct advantage to the climbers with fast finishes. World Champ Rui Costa has started off the year in good shape, winning the points jersey at his home Vola ao Algarve on the back of several fine stages that netted him 3rd overall. He has the legs to hang on over the tough climbs, and the kick to fight for precious seconds at the line. Przemyslaw Niemiec will be ample backup.

Speaking of climbers with kick, Carlos Betancur looks to be rounding into form after a Haut Var-matin victory. He’s just the sort of rider to take advantage of this route. Don’t rule out Ag2R teammate, the up-and-coming Romain Bardet, who will share his teammate’s appreciation for the lack of a time trial in this race. Rafal Majka, of Tinkoff-Saxo, is another young climber to watch.

The smaller hills and lack of chrono miles might not seem like his style, but Tejay van Garderen is hot after a Tour of Oman in which his climbing was second only to Chris Froome. 4th here last year, TvG has the chops and the current form to improve on his performance. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is similarly more suited to longer climbs and TTs, but he’s also looking good in the early season and clearly in a position of team leadership.

IAM Cycling brings both of its biggest offseason acquisitions into this race. Sylvain Chavanel has had quite a history in this race, winning last year’s points classification, a stage, and 5th overall and adding those achievements to a long list of successes here in the past. This year’s route, without many serious mountaintop finishes and likely to be heavily reliant on bonus seconds, will play out in the French veteran’s favor. He’ll have Mathias Frank as a dangerous second. Simon Gerrans may seem like the choice for OGE, but early reports point to Michael Albasini being the leader. The OPQS lineup at Paris-Nice is awe-inspiring, but they seem to be more focused on stages than GC; Jan Bakelants or maybe Zdenek Stybar look like their best bet for the overall leaderboard. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin may shoot for a rare GC placing given the profile, but it’s unclear what his objectives are. Same for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Simon Spilak leads Katusha’s GC charge. Movistar sends the brothers Ion and Gorka Izagirre as well as John Gadret. Trek sends the Schleck brothers, and Frank actually looked pretty good in Oman before a puncture ruined his race. Garmin’s Tom Jelte Slagter is a keen climber and a fast finisher. Other outsiders include Tommy Voeckler, Maxime Monfort, Jerome Coppel, and Arnold Jeannesson, to name a few.

Stagehunters

Given the parcours, we can expect to see several sprint finishes in the 2014 Paris-Nice. None of Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, or Peter Sagan will be in attendance but the list of recognizable fast finishers making the trip is very long, and one worthy of a rapid-fire roll call, with parentheticals where details are useful. Here goes… Riders capable of taking one or more of these stage victories include headliners like Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb (three wins already this season), OGE’s Matt Goss and Michael Matthews, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, BMC’s Thor Hushovd and Greg van Avermaet, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (keep an eye on the rising star), Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (very strong last week), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Belkin’s Lars Boom (for the tougher stages; he looks great this season) and Moreno Hofland (for the flatter ones; he also looks great this season), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi, and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Steele Von Hoff. OPQS gets their own bit here, as they’ll be coming into Paris-Nice with guns-blazing. Tom Boonen is back with a vengeance, sprinting at a high level and bringing his usual endurance to boot. Meersman and Stybar are both excellent options on the bumpier stages. Terpstra could go for a long one. Nikolas Maes may not have the name recognition of his teammates, but he’s a viable option in the flat finishes.

Other pure sprinter types who can contend: Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Cofidis’s Adrien Petit, and a hot Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha. In addition to the faster overall contenders, watch out for the likes of Tony Gallopin, Simon Gerrans (looking very strong), Samuel Dumoulin, Enrico Gasparotto, and Arthur Vichot, in any number of stages in which their climbing skills might keep them involved with the GC riders.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Rui Costa

GC Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Carlos Betancur

GC Top 10: Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Sylvain Chavanel, Tejay van Garderen, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka

Remember to check back in soon for the VH pre-race take on Tirreno-Adriatico!

-Dane Cash

March 7, 2014
Post-year Impressions: Charting the Arrivals and Step-ups of 2013

2013 is in the books! Beñat Intxausti won the GC of the final WT race of the year, the Tour of Beijing, by taking a victory on the decisive fourth stage. Joaquim Rodriguez finishes the year as repeat WorldTour champion on the back of his GrandTour successes, a Monument victory, and a truckload of high placings in other big races.

As this site is in the business of prospective analysis, my look back at 2013 will mostly be a look forward. I hope to shed some light on what we learned about the top riders in the sport this year, and which riders to watch in the future. If you’re reading VeloHuman, you don’t need me to tell you that Chris Froome is a rider to keep an eye on next year, or that Vincenzo Nibali is shaping up to be his main rival, or that Fabian Cancellara is still a talented racer. Instead, it’d be more productive for me to focus on the riders who made vast improvements in 2013, who we might say “arrived” this year, and who have set themselves up to do big things next year, so I’ll do just that, and name some names that I think made big strides this season and look to continue to do soon in the near future.

A rather obvious duo headlines my list of the most emphatic arrivals this year. While everyone was busy wondering which Spaniard would present the best case against Chris Froome in the Tour de France, a 23-year old Colombian leg-muscled his way onto the scene, building off of early season success in the Tour of the Basque Country with a fierce display of climbing prowess on some of the Tour’s most difficult stages: Ventoux, Alpe d’Huez, Mont Semnoz. Though the early lead Froome had built up was insurmountable, Quintana’s later stage performances, matching the Sky captain’s every move uphill on his way to 2nd overall, a stage win, the polka-dot KoM jersey and the young rider’s white, he saved Movistar’s Tour after their team leader Alejandro Valverde hit some raw luck with a mechanical that dropped him out of contention. No one will overlook him next year, especially with such a climbing-oriented 2014 edition of the Tour de France on the docket. Alternatively, he could set his sights on the Giro. Quintana’s time trialing might need a bit of work, but he showed this year that he can outclimb most of the sport’s biggest names, and you have to think he can only get better, still a few years shy of his prime.

Countryman Carlos Betancur blazed onto the scene with similar brightness. Top 10s at La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour of the Basque Country were followed by a highly successful Giro d’Italia, in which the young Colombian took 5th overall and the young rider classification. Like Quintana, he is sorely lacking in the time trialing department—his remarkable Giro was made all the more remarkable by his appearance in the top 10 after losing almost five minutes to the eventual winner of the race in the first ITT. Like Quintana, he’ll gun for future Grand Tour success in chrono-light parcours while he improves in that discipline, and while he may be a shade shy of Quintana’s level on the longer Tour style climbs, he’s more explosive than the Movistar wunderkind, and will surely be a fixture in the climber’s classics to come.

Zdenek Stybar is my other most emphatic arrival of the year. His situation is unique, in that cycling fans have heard Stybar’s name for years, but in a different discipline. Making the switch from cyclocross appears to have worked out for the Czech rider: even after a collision with a fan robbed him of a potential podium position in Paris-Roubaix, he still finished 6th in that race, and followed it up with a dominant Eneco Tour and a beautiful stage win in the Vuelta where he outsprinted none other than former World Champ Philippe Gilbert. His versatility was dazzling, and he will go into the 2014 classics season as a hot favorite across all kinds of terrain—and isn’t that the perfect expectation for a former cyclocross world champion?

Many other riders who were already well within the sights of cycling fans took leaps onto the highest level. Outside of Quintana, the most emphatic arrivals among riders who finished the year in the WorldTour top 10 were made by Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Dan Martin was already a name on the minds of observers at the start of the season, with a Grand Tour stage win in 2011 and the overall victory at the Tour de Pologne in 2010, but he took a Monument Classic, a Tour de France stage win, and the overall at the Volta a Catalunya this year, successes that vaulted him to 6th place in the final WorldTour rankings of 2013 (putting him ahead of Spartacus himself). And Rui Costa came into the year as a well-known talent as a winner of a Canadian GP, the Tour de Suisse, and a stage in the Tour de France, but his two Tour de France wins and World Championship (to go with another dominant Tour de Suisse) put him at cycling’s center stage. He goes to Lampre in 2014 as the team leader, a Tour de France GC hopeful. Another star of the Tour, Bauke Mollema was already a well-known name for many fans of the sport, having finished 4th overall and 1st in the points classification in the 2011 Vuelta, but he came into his own this year with strong performances all over the calendar, in the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta (where he won a stage to redeem a disappointing GC effort), and Clasica de San Sebastian. His emergence comes at just the right time, with teammate Robert Gesink having another disappointing year in terms of Grand Tour GC contention; however, Gesink showed strong late season form in shorter races, winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec and placing highly in other events, suggesting a possible change of focus to shorter races going forward. And the timing was ripe for Marcel Kittel to make an explosive entrance: after injury in 2012 robbed him of an opportunity to make his mark on that year’s tour, his 2013 outing, which earned him a quartet of stage wins, suddenly sees him in the best-of-the-best conversation with Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

In case you missed it, his teammate Luka Mezgec was one of a number of young up-and-coming sprinters who showed promise this year. Mezgec spent the whole year nipping at the heels of other sprinters, racking up countless top 5s without a win until he finally picked up his first of the year and his first WT level win ever on the very last day of the WorldTour calendar in Beijing. Nacer Bouhanni took a pair of wins in that race to go with the points jersey, as well as a number of other wins this year, a boon for FDJ. His squadmate Arnaud Demare took stages in the Eneco Tour and the Tour de Suisse, an armful of honors in the Four Days of Dunkirk he won, and high placings in a number of one-day races. Yet another French, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, a former track cycling star, transitioned quite nicely onto the road, collecting honors left and right on the Continental circuit. The 21 year old will be a major force on the fast finishes in 2014 now that Europcar looks to be joining the top division of teams. Michael Matthews came into the Vuelta flying high after Continental Tour success and proceeded to establish himself as the best sprinter in that race, with a special talent for nabbing victories after tough days in the saddle. His skills nabbed him a pair of stage wins, including the victory on the final day’s sprinter battle royale.

Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.

The Vuelta gave us an opportunity to see a number of coming out parties for GC contenders. Leopold Konig landed in the top 10 and picked up a stage win at the head of a Pro Continental team, quite a feat for the 25 year old. He’ll stay with NetApp for another year and will hope his performance garners further invitations to big events, where he’s sure to continue his success. Meanwhile, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche achieved some long awaited success with a top 5 finish and a stage win. His constant presence at the front of the pack on mountaintop finishes in Spain suggests that he may finally have taken the step up to the next level, a good sign for 2014.

Poland showed off a pair of riders with top level ability this year. Nico Roche’s teammate Rafal Majka didn’t win any races, but he was 7th overall in the Giro d’Italia and 2nd to Betancur for the young rider classification in that race, and he followed up with a 4th overall in his home tour to go along with his 1st place in the points classification of that race. The honors kept piling up as the year went on, when he narrowly missed out on a victory in Milano-Torino against another rising star (pictured above) and then stood on the podium in the final Monument of the year in Lombardy. By the same token (eerily), Michal Kwiatkowski may still have yet to win a pro race, but he burst onto the scene this year with a boatload of strong performances. 4th in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Amstel Gold, 5th in La Fleche Wallonne, and a heartbreaking 11th in the Tour de France after fellow up-and-comer Andrew Talansky grabbed the final top 10 spot on the last day of climbing, Majka looks to be a likely candidate for continued climbing success, and Kwiatkowski showed an incredible array of skills and looks poised to stake a claim to best all-rounder in the very near future.

A significant number of teams saw young climbing talents rising up the ladder this year. Many are Italian. 2011 Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi took a big step forward with successes on both ends of the season, nabbing a top 10 at Paris-Nice early and then a stage win in the Tour de Pologne and a string of semi-classic victories in Italy. So far, most of his quantifiable successes have been on smaller stages, but he performed at a high level in some big races this year (he was lurking in a number of stages in the Vuelta even if he didn’t come away with a win), inspiring a lot of confidence going forward. He’ll be part of an explosive one-two combination with Rui Costa at Lampre in 2014. Astana teammates Fabio Aru and Simone Ponzi look like prime candidates for success next year. Another Italian, Moreno Moser, had several standout performances this year for Cannondale; he disappeared at times when he was expected to bring his success to a bigger stage, but he showed in Strade Bianche and other races in 2013 that he certainly has the ability to turn promise into achievement in 2014.

Spaniard Jon Izagirre won’t be sweating the dissolution of his former team Euskaltel too much now that he has a new squad in Movistar, and it’s easy to see why they signed him. He nabbed the runner-up honors in the Tour de Pologne with a surprising time trial performance on the last day, and notched top 10s in the Tour Down Under and the one day Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal as well.

24 year old Arthur Vichot looks to be one of yet another up-and-comer for FDJ with strong climbing legs and a fast finish, abilities that netted him the French national championship, the runner-up honors in Quebec, and the victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, winner of the Tour de l’Ain and a high finisher in the Tour of Beijing, appears to have a bright future, and he joins teammate Carlos Betancur as part of a crop of young uphill chargers on that team.

Wilco Kelderman, a natural time trial talent, came into his own as a climber with a number of high-level successes in 2013. He picked up top 10s in Romandie, the Eneco Tour, and the Tour Down Under, and dominated the Tour of Denmark, where he won a stage, the points classification, and the overall. He’s another exciting up-and-comer for Belkin.

Argos-Shimano teammates Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin got themselves onto the map this year, the former nabbing a pair of breakaway victories in the Vuelta, and the latter claiming runner up honors with an impressive Eneco Tour performance. Alongside Marcel Kittel, Luka Mezgec, and John Degenkolb, the duo makes a potent quartet of Argos riders 25 and under.

Riccardo Zoidl nabbed the GC win at the Tour of Austria, and climbed at a high level in a number of other events. Darwin Atapuma moves up from Team Colombia to BMC after nabbing his first WorldTour win this year in Poland—that team desperately needs new blood, and Atapuma will be happy to oblige.

To match all these young climbers coming into their own, a few time trialists are on the rise: Adriano Malori looks to be a threat in that department, putting in a top 10 at the World Championship ITT and taking second place behind Tony Martin on a few time trial stages in WorldTour races to go along with his ITT victory and the overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt. Rohan Dennis out-time-trialed Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine on his way to a top 10 there and then showed his versatility when he won a stage and the overall in the Tour of Alberta. The 23 year old has established himself as a promising member of Garmin’s youth movement.

This list is by no means exhaustive, and obviously much depends on how you define breakout success, but hopefully I’ve rattled off the names of many of tomorrow’s biggest names. And thanks to the Tour Down Under and its January start date, we won’t have too long to wait for the opening of the 2014 calendar–in just 11 weeks, the pro peloton heads to Nuriootpa, Australia to kick off the new season!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Flowizm, brassynn, and Georges Ménager.

November 16, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

Day 0: Starting with a Bang

No easing into this one. The Vuelta opens with a team time trial and back-to-back steep uphill finishes. That means the contenders will have to be on their game from the moment they clip in on the first stage. I’ve already covered most of “where we stand” in my comprehensive race preview, so let’s get to it.

Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

It isn’t a long team time trial, and it’s not hilly either. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be hoping to defend their world TTT title at the upcoming championships in Italy, and after just missing out in the Tour de France, they will be gunning for this one. Tony Martin leads the squad, but they are missing some of their big pieces, like Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra. Still, they’ve got some talent here. Astana’s strong squad looks poised to challenge them. Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff both have a boatload of talented riders, but this parcours might be a bit flat for them. Sky’s roster isn’t packed with as many TT stars as it was in the Giro and the Tour, but they’ll probably be alright. Speaking of the Tour, Orica-GreenEdge fielded a very different squad there, and I don’t expect them to provide back to back Grand Tour TTT wins. RadioShack – Leopard will be led by Fabian Cancellara. Don’t overlook them, despite their aging roster behind him. Traditional favorites BMC and Garmin aren’t packing many heavy hitters. Katusha will be gunning to keep Purito from losing too much time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Astana | 2. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 3. Movistar | 4. Radioshack-Leopard

Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

We had to wait until the eight day of the Tour de France to get a summit finish. The Vuelta will be cutting to the chase much more quickly. The run to the top of Monte da Groba includes a Category 3 climb well before the halfway point and is otherwise pretty flat. However, 11km before the finish, the road turns up and stays steep until the summit finish. The average grade is 5.6%, with a 10% section early, a litte break in the middle, and then an 8% section near the top. It’s an early test, and gaps will surely form, but they aren’t likely to be devastating. Carlos Betancur has had plenty of time to rest since the Giro, and while it’s possible he might not be able to sustain a high level all Vuelta, he’s sure to be gunning for every uphill finish out there. For all his success, he has yet to claim his first WorldTour win. I’ll take a few stars of the Giro here, who have had plenty of time to recharge since they last Grand Toured. It’s also possible that a non-GC threat could be allowed to go up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Sergio Henao | 3. Vincenzo Nibali

Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 2’s finish isn’t backbreaking, but it should tell us at least a little bit about what’s what in this Vuelta. That means that anything I have to say about a Stage 3 could be completely out-of-date by the time the riders take to the road on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions anyway. Until the last 4 kilometers, Stage 3 presents the riders with nary a hill. Then comes the finish, a climb of roughly 6%. With such a flat profile leading into the day’s only real climb, which is a short one, competition will be hot and heavy as the peloton hits the Cat. 3 at a very high pace. It’s steep, but not that steep, and the slope eases a bit in the last few hundred meters; a group of hard-chargers could come across the line together. The last image I saw of Philippe Gilbert was a bloodied and bruised leg post-crash in the Eneco Tour, but he is back on the bike and will love this opportunity to nab his first win of the year, especially after coming so close in Benelux (where he was 2nd on an uphill sprint to Arnaud Demare before crashing on the stage that perhaps best suited his skills). Other familiar hard-finishing, uphill-capable names could be in the mix as well. Alejandro Valverde and Purito Rodriguez should jump at the opportunity to pick up bonus seconds with a short uphill sprint. Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin, and Bauke Mollema might be in the hunt, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Simon Gerrans | 4. Joaquim Rodriguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sean Rowe, Profiles from www.lavuelta.com.

August 23, 2013