Tag: Fabio Duarte

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Maniago > Monte Zoncolan – 167 km

After the Monte Grappa ITT that solidified Nairo Quintana’s hold on the pink jersey, only one GC-relevant stage remains in the 2014 Giro d’Italia. By this point, we’ve seen who is climbing on top form and who is struggling, but the race isn’t over just yet; everyone is vulnerable to a bad day here and there, and Stage 20 is not going to be forgiving.

The penultimate stage of the Giro is 167 kilometers in length. The first half is mostly flat, but then it starts to steadily rise upward into the Passo del Pura, a Category 1, 11.3 kilometer climb with an average gradient of 7.7%. Next comes the Category 2 Sella Razzo, 15.9 km at 5.2%. From there it’s a fast descent to the final mountain challenge of the 2014 Giro d’Italia: Monte Zoncolan.

The Giro d’Italia is full of brutal climbs, but the Monte Zoncolan is a different sort of challenge. It’s less than half the length of the Stelvio or the Val Martello, and does not reach the same dizzying heights. What makes the Zoncolan so vicious is its exceptional steepness. For 10.1 kilometers, the riders must brave an average gradient of 11.9%, and the average does not even tell the full story. The midsection of the ascent jumps up over 15% for a few kilometers, with sections in the 20% range. At gradients this extreme, there is simply nowhere to hide. Even a strong team cannot offer much help; there is not much benefit to be gained from sitting on a lieutenant’s wheel when everyone is going up this slowly.

As the last opportunity for the GC contenders to make any sort of moves up the leaderboard, Stage 20 will likely see the sort of fireworks from the big guns that will put any morning breakaway under pressure. Still, riders could decide to save up for the final push up the Zoncolan, allowing opportunists to get away on the earlier slopes, making it at least a possibility that a long distance attacker could take the day.

I think it is slightly more likely that the battle for stage honors comes down to the GC men and those who decide to stick with them, so I’ll name the favorites among the overall leaders first. Heavier diesel engines that prefer climb with steady teammate support are not going to enjoy this gradient. This stage is going to go to an ultra-lightweight, uphill charger. Nairo Quintana does not need to do anything else to prove that he’s the best climber in the race, so he is the most obvious candidate for the title of “favorite.” His performance in the Monte Grappa ITT was simply amazing, and the wicked gradients of Monte Zoncolan should be yet another perfect setting for the pink jersey wearer to put his talents on display.

Fabio Aru has shown on multiple occasions that he deserves to be considered the second best climber in the race. He was stellar in the Monte Grappa time trial, behind only Quintana, and he’s already taken a stage in this race. What’s more, he’ll be extra motivated knowing that 2nd overall on GC is within his grasp. He’s going to be on the lookout for the right opportunity to make a move on this climb, and there aren’t many riders who will be able to catch him.

Battling illness, Domenico Pozzovivo has not been at his best in this Giro. This would have been an excellent stage for his talents, but it’s hard to tip him as a favorite over Quintana or Aru right now. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland has an outside shot here but he is a marked man now that he’s in the Top 5 on GC, and he won’t be allowed to get up the road without a fight. Rigoberto Uran should be able to survive without huge time gaps but winning on these gradients seems unlikely; he’ll be more focused on protecting his 2nd overall on GC from Fabio Aru. Rafal Majka‘s podium hopes have been hit hard by stomach issues, and this is an unforgiving climb that could see him continue to struggle unless he recovers overnight. Cadel Evans, Wilco Kelderman, and Ryder Hesjedal could find themselves holding on for dear life.

I have a few favorites among the non-GC riders as well, climbers who could be allowed to get up the road, either in the day’s breakaway or with a late attack from the bunch on Monte Zoncolan. Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte is, in my opinion, the member of this group with the best chances. He’s now a four-time 2nd place stage finisher in the Giro d’Italia, clearly capable of mixing it up with the best, but always just a hair shy of success. Unlike most of the other top climbers in the race, he did not expend a lot of energy in the Stage 19 time trial. He’ll be very motivated to pick up that elusive win here on the last summit finish of the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo now has his stage win, and his KOM jersey is practically in the bag, but he could look for more glory on the famous Monte Zoncolan. Franco Pellizotti rode very well up the Monte Grappa and was also strong from the breakaway on the stage prior, suggesting excellent form at the moment. Androni Giacotolli is winless in this Giro d’Italia, and Pellizotti is their best chance at coming away from the race with a result. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is another very strong climber on a team that needs to get something out of this Giro. Sky’ s Dario Cataldo and the very surprising Sebastian Henao and Neri Sottoli’s Edoardo Zardini also fit this description.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Check back for the preview of the last stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia after the Stage 20 finale atop Monte Zoncalan. Also, remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

With the Giro coming to a close this weekend, now seems like a good time to point out that VeloHuman will be previewing the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, every stage of the Tour de France, so make sure you come back soon!

May 30, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Belluno > Rif. Panarotta (Valsugana) – 171 km

Culminating with the Category 1 Rifugio Panarotta climb, the Giro’s eighteenth stage is sure to offer fireworks. However, with an all-important uphill time trial on the horizon followed by the nasty Monte Zoncolan the day after, the GC contenders may decide to temper their efforts on Stage 18, which could open things up to a breakaway for the second day in a row (Stefano Pirazzi got into the day’s big move on Stage 17 and ultimately took the win). Once again, it wouldn’t make sense to call any one rider the singular favorite, but several riders do deserve to be considered contenders.

The profile is a mountainous one, with the Passo San Pellegrino as the first categorized climb on the menu. It’s a Cat. 1, 18.5 kilometers at an average of 6.2%. While it officially starts some 36 km into the race, by that point the road has already been going uphill, albeit gently, for about 30 kilometers! In other words, the first hour and a half of racing will take a lot out of the riders. From the top of the climb, it’s a descent followed by some ups and downs into the short but steep Passo del Redebus climb. Then comes a long descent and a flat section before the finale, a 15.9 kilometer, 7.9% average gradient ascent to the Rifugio Panarotta.

As difficult as the day looks, Stage 19’s time trial and Stage 20’s climax atop Monte Zoncolan finish may prove more decisive for GC. That could see the main maglia rosa contenders trying to keep their powder dry. On the other hand, Nairo Quintana has a significant GC lead, and his rivals know that their time is running out. Some of them are also probably not likely to fancy their chances against the clock. If they decide to use Stage 18 as an opportunity to take back time, anyone up the road will struggle to maintain an advantage on the final climb; it’s yet another day that, to me, is a tossup to go to the break or to the GC riders.

As the best climber in the race, Nairo Quintana is the first favorite among the overall contenders. As I like to point out in these breakaway-friendly scenarios, I’m not sure I’d bet on him against the field, but given the uncertainty that comes with trying to predict who will make the breakaway, let alone survive out front, his chances are at least as good as any other one rider in the race. His team can drive a very hard pace on the ascents, and even though he is now in the leader’s jersey, I don’t think he will just sit around and let attackers go by him on the final climb. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is driven to extend his lead to quiet critics of his unpopular Stelvio descent.

Astana’s Fabio Aru has had an amazing Giro d’Italia, but with a time trial approaching, he may feel the pressure to make an attack on this stage, and he’s looked strong enough to be a real contender for a victory. Nobody could match him on the Montecampione ascent, and he hasn’t shown any signs of fading. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland could have similar motivation. Time trialing has never been a strong suit. However, after two weeks of being given a lot of a leeway to make attacks due to his relatively non-threatening GC position, Rolland is now a marked man. It will be interesting to see how he responds, and whether he’s able to ride with the big favorites now that he won’t find it as easy to escape from long distance.

At 1:41 down, Rigoberto Uran knows he needs to act, so he could try to put Quintana under pressure here. Domenico Pozzovivo is even further down, making an attack likely. Young guns Rafal Majka and Wilco Kelderman have not been afraid to try late moves when they’ve seen openings. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal made huge gains in GC and looked excellent on Stage 16 but, like Rolland, he’ll now find that his rivals won’t give him the same kind of freedom that he’s had up till now. BMC’s Cadel Evans has been losing time in the mountains and he will have his work cut out for him holding onto the final podium spot—this is a steep final ascent.

Should the maglia rosa hunters take a reserved approach, the morning breakaway could stick. A number of strong climbers could be weighing their chances in either scenario. He has not featured as prominently lately as he did in the first several stages, but Trek’s Julian Arredondo cannot sit idle here. There are too many KOM points on offer for him to miss the breakaway. If he can get into the day’s move, he will be a strong contender for stage honors. His countryman Fabio Duarte was 2nd behind Fabio Aru on the Montecampione climb. If he makes the break, he probably won’t waste his energy trying to pick up early mountain points, and that could leave him better prepared for the finale. Team Colombia squadmates Robinson Chalapud and Jarlinson Pantano are further strong options. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno looked very strong on Stage 15 and is running out of chances to get something positive out of this race, so he could try to strike here. Androni Giacotolli’s Franco Pellizotti is in a similar boat.

Other potential long-distance candidates include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, and Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Friday’s time trial will have major GC implications, so be on the lookout for the preview after the conclusion of Stage 18. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 28, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Ponte di Legno > Val Martello/Martelltal – 139 km

The peloton will be glad to have enjoyed a rest day before the brutal climbing challenge that awaits on Stage 16. Stage 15, which saw Fabio Aru take a victory and Nairo Quintana take some valuable time on GC, provided a great look at the uphill form of the big names in this race, but trips up the Passo Gavia, the Stelvio, and the Val Martello climbs could rewrite the script.

Unfortunately, snow in the high mountains has opened the door for the possibility of an alternate route that would skip the first two climbs and replace them with a different pair of ascents before the finale. Race organizers will assess the weather situation on the morning of the stage. At the moment, however, RCS Sport is planning to go ahead with the original route, so this preview is going ahead with it as well.

139 kilometers make this the second shortest non-TT stage in the Giro d’Italia, but that won’t be much consolation for the riders. Very few of those kilometers don’t involve grueling ascending or nervous descending. The peloton will enjoy about 5 downhill kilometers to start the day before they take on the Passo Gavia climb, 16.5 km at 8%. From Cat. 1 summit, it’s a technical and rough descent that runs to the foot of the Stelvio ascent, 21.7 kilometers at an average of 7.1%. The roads are narrow and it’s quite cold towards the top. Another tricky descent follows, before the road flattens out a bit with around 35 kilometers remaining. The final climb is an irregular 22.4 kilometer journey that averages 6.4%, but it includes various sections of 10% or more, including one just before the finish line.

This stage is a prime target for anyone hunting the King of the Mountains jersey. The top of the Stelvio, as the highest point in the Giro (the “Cima Coppi”), offers more KOM points than any other climb in the race. The Gavia and Val Martello climbs are both Category 1s. The competition to get up the road early will be fierce, as it will be difficult for any rider who misses out to take home the blue jersey. As leg-breaking as the first two climbs are, the final ascent will be an excellent opportunity for the GC men to attack each other, enough so that most of the big pink jersey contenders are probably planning to hold off on making moves until the road goes up for a final time. This means that the breakaway, already likely to be made up of some very talented climbers, will have a great shot of staying away.

As with most breakaway-friendly stages, naming favorites it’s quite difficult, but Julian Arredondo stands out as one of the likely protagonists to make things interesting. He went far too early on the Montecampione climb on Stage 15 and cracked, but he’s had a day off to recover some strength and he knows how important this one is. Given the likelihood of breakaway success, Arredondo is a great bet to take the stage from an early move, assuming he doesn’t go too deep trying to pick up points in the first two climbs. If he is there in the final, he’ll have a number of opportunities on the irregular slopes to launch an attack.

Colombia’s Fabio Duarte nabbed 2nd on Stage 15 among the very best climbers in this race. Unlike Arredondo, Duarte does not seem focused on the blue jersey, meaning that he won’t need to expend too much energy trying to be the first to the top of the Gavia or Stelvio climbs. He’s far enough down on GC to be allowed off the front and he’s on elite form at the moment, making him a great candidate for success here. If Duarte is on the front towards the end of the day, he’ll be a really difficult guy to catch on the final climb. Another option for Colombia is Duarte’s teammate Jarlinson Pantano, who came pretty close to victory from the breakaway on Stage 14 and could look to try again after recharging his batteries.

Katusha’s Daniel Moreno stuck with the GC contenders on Stage 15 and finished 8th on the day. No longer a threat for the maglia rosa, Moreno could try to go for a long one, and he’s obviously in top shape. Katusha came into this race with such high hopes, and Moreno is their best bet to make something happen.

Other strong options to go long include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Neri Sottoli’s Yonathan Monsalve, Astana’s Mikel Landa, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche.

If the peloton decides to keep the gaps manageable over the first two ascents, it will be tough for a breakaway to survive all the way up the brutal final climb. Should the GC contenders end up fighting it out for stage honors, Nairo Quintana has to be the favorite. He has shown in the last two stages that he’s recovered from the health issues that plagued the beginning of his bid for Giro glory, and he’s had another rest day since then just in case he wasn’t all the way back to full strength. With two long mountain slogs to wear out the legs in the first half of the stage and a third with plenty of excellent launching pads for attacks to close things out, Stage 16 suits Quintana’s skillset perfectly. He needs to claw back time on his GC rivals, and this is an excellent opportunity that he won’t likely pass up. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on him over the field, given the likelihood of breakaway success, but he’s certainly the single favorite rider to take the day.

Astana’s Fabio Aru delivered a beautiful victory on the Plan di Montecampione on Sunday. He made a decisive move to get away from the pack of GC contenders and stayed full throttle all the way up, putting his raw talent and his top-shelf form on full display. We’re into the third week of the race now and he has yet to show signs of slowing down. With teammates like Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, he has a great shot at continuing his successful Giro, though the seemingly endless climbing of Stage 16 will really put him to the test.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing quite impressively in this race. Far enough back on GC that the big names are giving him breathing room to attack, he has gone on the move at nearly every opportunity so far, and clawed back some of the time that he lost early on the Giro. With the form he has displayed constantly jumping out ahead of his GC rivals, Pierre Rolland should have another strong performance in the cards. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has not been as successful, but he’s looked decent so far and could also see success if allowed to get out front.

Gaining time on almost all of his rivals (other than Quintana and Aru) on Stage 15, Rigoberto Uran made a strong statement that his Stage 14 may have been more the result of a bad day than a loss of climbing form. OPQS (with Wout Poels leading the way) has supported him well on the tough mountain days. He’s more focused on marking his GC rivals than jumping ahead for stage honors, but with his explosive uphill ability he could have a shot if things hold together until the end of the last climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has a great resume on the very hard days in the mountains and could look to make something happen here. He was one of the strongest GC riders on Stage 15 and Stage 16 could be even better for the climbing star. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages but a true climber’s test with plenty of opportunities to attack should suit him. BMC’s Cadel Evans won’t love the constant changes of pace that his rivals are likely to force on these irregular slopes, but he could respond to moves more effectively after a rest day. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has hung with the best so far, but he has another brutal test waiting for him here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Duarte | 3. Julian Arredondo

Keep an eye out for news of a possible route change in Stage 16, but even in the event of alterations, it’s still likely to be a day with big GC implications. The Stage 17 preview will be up a few hours after the Stage 16 finish. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2014