Tag: Julian Arredondo

Giro d’Italia 2014 Post-race Impressions: Rising Stars Put on a Show in Italy

Now that the dust has settled in the battle for the maglia rosa, it’s time to give some thought to what we learned from the 2014 Giro d’Italia. With several brilliant performances over the course of the three-week tour, the race offered a wealth of insight into which riders are on the rise at the sport’s top level. The dominant theme at this year’s Giro? A new generation of stars has definitely arrived.

Promising Talents Confirmed, Part 1: GC Riders

An amazing seven of the Top 10 riders in the General Classification are age 27 or younger. For every one of them, this Giro was a statement, a confirmation of the ability to take a step forward, whether from promising young all-rounder to Grand Tour Top 10 finisher, or from Grand Tour runner-up to Grand Tour winner. Many of the biggest names in the race are primed to light up the sport’s highest profile events for years to come.

Nairo Quintana did not need to prove to anyone that he was one of the world’s best climbers, but his ability to handle full team leadership and the pressure of being a top favorite for a huge race was something of an unknown. In the 2014 Giro, Quintana was Movistar’s man from Day 1, and the Spanish superteam brought a squad completely dedicated to putting the young Colombian into the pink jersey. He delivered in convincing fashion, proving that a leadership role is something he can handle without any reservations. Famous for his poker face, Quintana did not let a number of early mishaps (a poor TTT performance, crashes, and illness) get to his head or his morale. He also showed improved ability in a non-mountain time trial, and dominant form in a mountainous one, building towards a more well-rounded game that will surely position him for more success moving forward.

Rigoberto Uran may not have bettered his 2013 result, delivering a second runner-up performance in a row, but he did show a more complete skillset, including a vastly improved ability to ride against the clock. Long considered a pure climber with a decent punch, the 27-year-old blew the doors off a Stage 12 time trial that did not appear to be particularly climber-centric, and continued to show off stellar endurance with his 3rd place performance in the Stage 19 hill climb. His newfound prowess in the chrono may not have been enough to hold onto the pink jersey, but it bodes very well for his future, especially should he decide to shift his focus to the Tour de France, which typically places greater importance on the flat ITTs and the long climbs.

Fabio Aru was undoubtedly the revelation of the race. Flashes of brilliance in his young career had already put him in the spotlight as Italian cycling’s next big thing, but few expected him to deliver in so dazzling a fashion so soon. A pure climber with an aggressive streak, Aru exploded up the Montecampione on Stage 15 to put himself into contention for the podium, and then grabbed hold of it with two hands in the hill climb TT. Despite a lack of experience consistently performing at this level, he did not appear to fatigue in the final week. Just as Michele Scarponi’s career is starting to enter its twilight years, Astana suddenly has a new Grand Tour contender on their hands in Aru, who will surely light up the Giro for years to come.

Pierre Rolland bounced back from a very disappointing 2013 in a major way. After strong Tours de France in 2011 and 2012, he looked set for long-term success, but he failed to notch even a single WorldTour Top 10 in the year to follow. The 27-year-old was consistently climbing with the best in this Giro, suggesting that he is back on track for success moving forward. Rafal Majka did his 2013 performance one better with a 6th overall, despite suffering from stomach issues late in the race. He delivered a very impressive first time trial. With Alberto Contador seemingly locked in for the Tour de France for a while, Majka could shine as Tinkoff-Saxo’s Giro star for years to come.

Wilco Kelderman may not have finished on the podium or won a high profile stage, but he was another major revelation of this race. He put in a handful of Top 10s in shorter stage races in 2013 but he was consistently climbing with the very best in this Giro, and while he did fade a bit towards the end of the race, he limited his losses and still landed 7th overall, ahead of Cadel Evans. He managed all this at just 23 years old, and, in my opinion, without particularly strong team support. He still needs to develop more, but if he can continue his progression he has a very high ceiling. As an added bonus, while it won’t help him much in the Grand Tours, he has shown a newfound ability to finish very fast, as well.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski came into the race targeting a Top 10 and delivered on his goal, finishing exactly 10th. He never challenged for the overall victory, but on most of the decisive stages in the race he was able to hang with the top climbers most of the way up. His third WorldTour Top 10 this year, it’s a strong performance to continue a nice run for the Croatian, whose team is sorely in need of rising GC talent.

Sky’s Sebastian Henao may have finished the race much further down the General Classification, but he showed serious promise in this Giro. On several mountain stages, he was able to hang with the leaders for most of the way up the climbs despite generally being alone among his team while Dario Cataldo and Phil Deignan were hunting breakaway victories. Then, in Stage 19 ITT up Monte Grappa, he notched an 8th place, ahead of Cadel Evans and Wilco Kelderman. He’s only 20 years old, and riding for a team famous for their ability to develop young talent: big things are coming from Sergio’s cousin, and they could be coming soon. Wouter Poels of OPQS was another strong performer whose final position in GC did not reflect his performance in the race. He was constantly at the side of team leader Rigoberto Uran even on the tough climbs, riding uphill so impressively that he managed to hang on in the GC Top 10 all the way up through Stage 15. He also landed 6th in the first ITT. It’s been an excellent year for the young Poels, who notched a stage win at Pais Vasco with a brilliant escape from GC rivals on a tough climb in Stage 4 of that race. Poels is establishing himself as yet another all-rounder talent for a team looking to expand on their already dominant position in the one day races and sprints.

Promising Talents Confirmed, Part 2: Stagehunters

Of the six stages that ended in a bunch sprint in the 2014 Giro d’Italia, six were won by riders aged 26 or younger, and it was only Marcel Kittel‘s birthday stage victory that keeps me from saying 25 or younger! The German dominated the first two bunch gallops of the race, delivering an astounding performance on Stage 3 (where he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to pip Ben Swift to the line) that will be remembered for a long time. With the Tour on the horizon, the young Kittel has made a major statement that his rivals Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely have noticed.

The departure of Marcel Kittel ostensibly left the sprints wide open for the remaining fast men, but 23-year-old Nacer Bouhanni quickly established himself as the one to beat. His scrappy, wheel-surfing style was perfect for the technical finishing circuits of the race, and he showed time and again an ability to put himself into the best position for the final gallop, and then time his jump just right. FDJ’s young sprinter is obviously very fast, but he also displayed the sort of sprinting savvy necessary to actually win races consistently, which has already set up a bit of a controversy within his team, where the presence of fellow young fast man Arnaud Demare leaves things a bit crowded at that position.

Giacomo Nizzolo notched a heart-breaking four 2nd place finishes but he has much to be proud of, and more to be excited about. Nizzolo is a versatile rider who has shown serious potential in flatter one-day races: he has notched podium performances in the GP Ouest France and the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’ll be disappointed to come away from this Giro without a win, but if he can maintain this level of top speed into the late summer races that favor someone with his array of skills, he can expect continued success there.

Giant-Shimano’s 25-year-old Luka Mezgec picked up a stage win on the final day of the Giro to finish off an admirable job of filling in for Marcel Kittel. Mezgec has been on fire this year, dominating the sprints in the Volta a Catalunya, and he gives his team yet another option in the bunch finishes behind Kittel and John Degenkolb.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge showed in last year’s Vuelta a Espana that he deserves to be considered a top-shelf sprinter, but his Giro performance showed the terrific depth to his game. He was already known as a versatile fast finisher, the sort of rider who was particularly dangerous when hills reduced the bunch before a final gallop, but his week in the pink jersey displayed a whole new level of versatility. He capped it off with a stage win atop a Category 2 climb. He was forced to abandon midway through the race, but now looks set to head to the Tour de France, where he will hope to mount a challenge to the likes of Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb on the bumpier days.

Elia Viviani got off to a fine start, with a trio of Top 5s in the first three sprint stages, but he was unable to come up with anything after that. Crashes did not help. As the bookies’ favorite to win the points jersey, Viviani was one of the surprise disappointments of the race, but weather-caused carnage may have played a role, and he’ll hope to prove that that was the case in his next few races.

Stepping away from the bunch sprints, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi was an early star of the race, delivering a powerful uphill assault on his way to victory on Stage 5 and then charging up a steeper gradient to win Stage 8 atop the Category 1 Montecopiolo. After a disappointing Ardennes campaign, Ulissi was head and shoulders above the competition in the fast uphill finishes in this race. In my mind, he’s ascended to the very top echelon of riders in that specialty, and even though he was unable to make much happen in the classics this year, I expect to see him launching himself to success in races like La Fleche Wallonne very soon. The punchy skillset wasn’t the only ability he put on display in this race, however. Ulissi also delivered one of the most shocking performances in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 12, where he notched 2nd place in a long, not particularly hilly time trial. He had picked up strong results here and there in mountain climb chronos in his young career, but this was something new entirely. Ulissi left a number of TT specialists in his wake and was only bested by an otherworldly Rigoberto Uran, suggesting that while his near future may focus on the one-day races and hillier days in stage races, he may have real GC style talent under the hood.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo was the other uphill-charging stagehunter to take a massive step forward in this race. His Tour de Langkawi win in 2013 put him on the map and caught the eye of plenty of observers, but he has come into his own for a WorldTour squad here in 2014. He won a pair of stages in the Tour de San Luis at the beginning of the year, and then climbed his way to 5th at Tirreno-Adriatico, hinting that bigger successes were right around the corner. He did not disappoint in the Giro d’Italia, earning the King of the Mountains jersey and a stage win with his aggressive style and his considerable uphill punch. He was always on the lookout for opportunities to attack, and it served him well. His Stage 18 victory was particularly impressive: he put in a ton of effort racking up KOM points early in the day but still managed to have enough in the tank to outclimb his breakaway companions on the final climb. Now with a top-level team to help him continue to develop as a rider, 25-year-old Arredondo is likely to continue to rise as a climbing star.

Lotto Belisol’s 23-year-old Tim Wellens was another very impressive rider in this race. He was unable to come away with a win, but notched a pair of great 2nd place performances as well as a 9th place in the uphill ITT. He was 3rd in the overall King of the Mountains competition thanks to his aggressive pursuit of breakaway success. He may not have picked up the result he wanted, but he put a ton of ability on display and can no longer be considered “under-the-radar.” Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte also picked up a pair of 2nd places, upping his total to four in the Giro. He’s an uphill specialist with a sharp eye for opportunities to attack; riding for a Pro Continental squad, he doesn’t get as many chances to shine on the biggest stage as he probably should, but he’s making his mark when he can.

Crashes Cloud the Issue for Others

Even as a sizeable contingent of up-and-coming stars made massive strides, a number of other riders saw their bids for glory fall apart on messy, rain-soaked roads, robbing us of an opportunity to see how they might have fared under more favorable conditions. Dan Martin hoped to deliver his first Grand Tour Top 10 in this Giro, but found himself out of the race on its very first day. He seems to be recovering well and will now refocus his season on the Tour or the Vuelta. He was in excellent shape in the Ardennes before his nasty TTT crash; if he can recapture that form, a return to success this season seems likely.

Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest name to fall victim to the slippery Italian roads. Caught up in the mess on Stage 6, Purito was forced to abandon before the Giro ever really hit any mountains. This was supposed to be a strong opportunity for him to pick up that elusive Grand Tour victory, but now he, too, will have to shift his focus, apparently to the Vuelta. Though he hasn’t ruled out the Tour de France, he could find himself in an excellent position in Spain if he does: without having the grueling mileage of another Grand Tour in his legs, he would be a strong contender for that race, which has been won by a rider without a previous GT on the year in its last three editions.

Michele Scarponi, Nicolas Roche, and Przemyslaw Niemiec were also caught up in or behind the Stage 6 carnage (along with a number of other non-GC riders) and saw their GC hopes crumble. The first two then realigned their goals rather successfully (Scarponi went into domestique mode for Aru, who finished on the podium; Roche helped Majka achieve a strong GC placing and Michael Rogers notch a pair of stage victories), but it was an unfortunate turn of events for both riders, who harbored GC aspirations. Scarponi will be 35 next year and with Nibali as the team’s big star and Aru on the rise, the future is not particularly promising. Lampre’s Niemiec was coming off a strong performance in Trentino, but did not feature much after his tumble down the General Classification. Though he was excellent in 2013, he, too, will be 35 for next year’s Giro and may see younger talent take a more prominent role.

Gearing Up for Tour Season

With the Giro wrapping up, the cycling world shifts its focus to its biggest event (and the tuneup races that lead into it). The Criterium du Dauphine and Tour de Suisse are around the corner and the Tour de France is only about a month away. A few of the stars of the Giro will make the start in their second Grand Tour, riding against the likes of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador on cycling’s biggest stage. You can expect to see their names and plenty more in the VeloHuman previews to come, so stay tuned!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Maurizio Costanzo, Maurizio Massasso, Sean Rowe, and nuestrociclismo.com.

June 2, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Ponte di Legno > Val Martello/Martelltal – 139 km

The peloton will be glad to have enjoyed a rest day before the brutal climbing challenge that awaits on Stage 16. Stage 15, which saw Fabio Aru take a victory and Nairo Quintana take some valuable time on GC, provided a great look at the uphill form of the big names in this race, but trips up the Passo Gavia, the Stelvio, and the Val Martello climbs could rewrite the script.

Unfortunately, snow in the high mountains has opened the door for the possibility of an alternate route that would skip the first two climbs and replace them with a different pair of ascents before the finale. Race organizers will assess the weather situation on the morning of the stage. At the moment, however, RCS Sport is planning to go ahead with the original route, so this preview is going ahead with it as well.

139 kilometers make this the second shortest non-TT stage in the Giro d’Italia, but that won’t be much consolation for the riders. Very few of those kilometers don’t involve grueling ascending or nervous descending. The peloton will enjoy about 5 downhill kilometers to start the day before they take on the Passo Gavia climb, 16.5 km at 8%. From Cat. 1 summit, it’s a technical and rough descent that runs to the foot of the Stelvio ascent, 21.7 kilometers at an average of 7.1%. The roads are narrow and it’s quite cold towards the top. Another tricky descent follows, before the road flattens out a bit with around 35 kilometers remaining. The final climb is an irregular 22.4 kilometer journey that averages 6.4%, but it includes various sections of 10% or more, including one just before the finish line.

This stage is a prime target for anyone hunting the King of the Mountains jersey. The top of the Stelvio, as the highest point in the Giro (the “Cima Coppi”), offers more KOM points than any other climb in the race. The Gavia and Val Martello climbs are both Category 1s. The competition to get up the road early will be fierce, as it will be difficult for any rider who misses out to take home the blue jersey. As leg-breaking as the first two climbs are, the final ascent will be an excellent opportunity for the GC men to attack each other, enough so that most of the big pink jersey contenders are probably planning to hold off on making moves until the road goes up for a final time. This means that the breakaway, already likely to be made up of some very talented climbers, will have a great shot of staying away.

As with most breakaway-friendly stages, naming favorites it’s quite difficult, but Julian Arredondo stands out as one of the likely protagonists to make things interesting. He went far too early on the Montecampione climb on Stage 15 and cracked, but he’s had a day off to recover some strength and he knows how important this one is. Given the likelihood of breakaway success, Arredondo is a great bet to take the stage from an early move, assuming he doesn’t go too deep trying to pick up points in the first two climbs. If he is there in the final, he’ll have a number of opportunities on the irregular slopes to launch an attack.

Colombia’s Fabio Duarte nabbed 2nd on Stage 15 among the very best climbers in this race. Unlike Arredondo, Duarte does not seem focused on the blue jersey, meaning that he won’t need to expend too much energy trying to be the first to the top of the Gavia or Stelvio climbs. He’s far enough down on GC to be allowed off the front and he’s on elite form at the moment, making him a great candidate for success here. If Duarte is on the front towards the end of the day, he’ll be a really difficult guy to catch on the final climb. Another option for Colombia is Duarte’s teammate Jarlinson Pantano, who came pretty close to victory from the breakaway on Stage 14 and could look to try again after recharging his batteries.

Katusha’s Daniel Moreno stuck with the GC contenders on Stage 15 and finished 8th on the day. No longer a threat for the maglia rosa, Moreno could try to go for a long one, and he’s obviously in top shape. Katusha came into this race with such high hopes, and Moreno is their best bet to make something happen.

Other strong options to go long include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Neri Sottoli’s Yonathan Monsalve, Astana’s Mikel Landa, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche.

If the peloton decides to keep the gaps manageable over the first two ascents, it will be tough for a breakaway to survive all the way up the brutal final climb. Should the GC contenders end up fighting it out for stage honors, Nairo Quintana has to be the favorite. He has shown in the last two stages that he’s recovered from the health issues that plagued the beginning of his bid for Giro glory, and he’s had another rest day since then just in case he wasn’t all the way back to full strength. With two long mountain slogs to wear out the legs in the first half of the stage and a third with plenty of excellent launching pads for attacks to close things out, Stage 16 suits Quintana’s skillset perfectly. He needs to claw back time on his GC rivals, and this is an excellent opportunity that he won’t likely pass up. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on him over the field, given the likelihood of breakaway success, but he’s certainly the single favorite rider to take the day.

Astana’s Fabio Aru delivered a beautiful victory on the Plan di Montecampione on Sunday. He made a decisive move to get away from the pack of GC contenders and stayed full throttle all the way up, putting his raw talent and his top-shelf form on full display. We’re into the third week of the race now and he has yet to show signs of slowing down. With teammates like Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, he has a great shot at continuing his successful Giro, though the seemingly endless climbing of Stage 16 will really put him to the test.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing quite impressively in this race. Far enough back on GC that the big names are giving him breathing room to attack, he has gone on the move at nearly every opportunity so far, and clawed back some of the time that he lost early on the Giro. With the form he has displayed constantly jumping out ahead of his GC rivals, Pierre Rolland should have another strong performance in the cards. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has not been as successful, but he’s looked decent so far and could also see success if allowed to get out front.

Gaining time on almost all of his rivals (other than Quintana and Aru) on Stage 15, Rigoberto Uran made a strong statement that his Stage 14 may have been more the result of a bad day than a loss of climbing form. OPQS (with Wout Poels leading the way) has supported him well on the tough mountain days. He’s more focused on marking his GC rivals than jumping ahead for stage honors, but with his explosive uphill ability he could have a shot if things hold together until the end of the last climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has a great resume on the very hard days in the mountains and could look to make something happen here. He was one of the strongest GC riders on Stage 15 and Stage 16 could be even better for the climbing star. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages but a true climber’s test with plenty of opportunities to attack should suit him. BMC’s Cadel Evans won’t love the constant changes of pace that his rivals are likely to force on these irregular slopes, but he could respond to moves more effectively after a rest day. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has hung with the best so far, but he has another brutal test waiting for him here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Duarte | 3. Julian Arredondo

Keep an eye out for news of a possible route change in Stage 16, but even in the event of alterations, it’s still likely to be a day with big GC implications. The Stage 17 preview will be up a few hours after the Stage 16 finish. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Valdengo > Plan di Montecampione – 225 km

There were no huge time gaps among the main GC contenders on a Stage 14 that went to a breakaway, but we learned a lot on the first really hard climbs of this race about who is on top form. Nairo Quintana seems to have overcome the various ailments that have troubled him through the first two weeks of the Giro d’Italia. His rivals have their work cut out for him as the road continues to go up in the next few days.

At 225 total kilometers, Stage 15 is one of the longest in the race, but the first 205.7 kilometers are quite flat. The real action will be reserved for the end of the day, when the road heads skyward. The Category 1 Plan di Montecampione is a leg-breaker, 19.4 kilometers at 7.6%. The first 11 km are pretty steady at around 8%, and then there is a brief respite in the 3% to 4% range before a finale of roughly 5 kilometers at gradients nearing 9%.

A breakaway victory is again possible, but with a rest day to follow and a lot on the line, the big guns should be out to play on the slopes. Wide roads and a mostly flat run-in to the final climb won’t offer much advantage to early attackers either.

It took two weeks, but Nairo Quintana finally showed his hand in Stage 14. He appears to be back at full strength, and on this long, steep final climb, he’s the big favorite now that he looks recovered from his crash and the sickness that followed. Movistar’s mountain goats also showed their mettle on Stage 14 and they’ll be able to put Quintana in a great place to take on this final ascent.

AG2R was another particularly impressive squad on the road to Oropa, especially given their cast of domestiques with names less recognizable than Eros Capecchi or Igor Anton. Domenico Pozzovivo ensured that their work was put to good use, picking up a few seconds on some of his GC rivals when he attacked with Nairo Quintana and managed to maintain a gap over at least a few of the riders behind. Stage 15 is another golden opportunity for the aggressive Italian and his dedicated French team to make their mark, and I expect Pozzovivo to be one of the strongest GC contenders on this climb.

Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran did not look comfortable trying to match the moves of Quintana and Pozzovivo on Stage 14 and he lost some time, possibly a sign that the excellent time trialing ability he has developed may have come at the expense up some of his trademark uphill talent. With over 19 kilometers of sustained climbing to close out Stage 15, Uran could be in trouble. Still, it’s possible that he’s just had one bad day, and I’m not ready to completely downgrade my opinion of Uran just yet. Another day or two in the mountains will offer more clarity.

Cadel Evans looked to be struggling on Stage 14 as well. He didn’t lose a huge chunk of seconds, but the Plan di Montecampione climb is much longer, and it’s steeper. He has had good support so far, but I’m not sure how well BMC will be able to stick with their leader on the really difficult climbs of this final week. Evans still has a nice buffer to most of his rivals on GC (other than Uran), but I expect him to start losing time on these high gradients.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should be pretty excited about this profile and what’s to come. He’s sitting 3rd at the moment, he’s climbing wonderfully, and he has a good team around him. Nicolas Roche took to the break on Stage 14, but he’ll be a very valuable domestique when called upon, as will Michael Rogers. In last year’s Giro, Majka showed on the Altopiano del Montasio and the Galiber that he can turn a good rhythm on even the very long climbs, so this finish should suit him.

Astana’s Fabio Aru continues to impress me. He actually finished just ahead of Pozzovivo on Stage 14. I keep waiting for him to show signs of weakness as we get deeper and deeper into the Giro d’Italia, but he has not faltered yet, and could be in for continued success on this stage for the pure climbers. Wilco Kelderman also continues to impress me, but this will be a real test. It’s a very long way to the Montecampione finish, and Kelderman doesn’t have a cast of supporters well-suited to the slopes. He’s proven that he deserves to be among the very biggest names in this race so far, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will be coming off a very hard effort, and it would be difficult enough when fully rested to match the big favorites on this long slog. Ryder Hesjedal certainly looks to have found some of his old form, but this will be a major challenge after a long day.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo did not make the Stage 14 breakaway, opening the door for Tim Wellens to pick up a lot of KOM points. There’s a big stash of points on offer at the Stage 15 finish, so I think it’s pretty likely that Arredondo will be very active in defense of his blue jersey, and as a non-threat to GC, he’ll probably be given freedom to go for a long one. Diego Ulissi is another explosive climber who doesn’t pose a big GC threat, but it’d be pretty surprising to see him survive this extended uphill journey unless he manages to do it from a long-distance move.

Speaking of long distance, more candidates for breakaway success (and outside candidates for success if they wait until the big climb) include Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, neither of whom went particularly deep on Stage 14, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni’s Diego Rosa and Franco Pellizotti, and Bardiani’s Francesco Bongiorno. Also watch out for Sky’s Sebastian Henao, who has been climbing very well so far and who does not have any teammates with GC aspirations to look after now that Sky’s last hope for the overall, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has abandoned.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Domenico Pozzovivo | 3. Julian Arredondo

The peloton gets to enjoy a rest day after Stage 15, so check back on Monday for the preview of Tuesday’s Stage 16. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 24, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Aglie > Oropa – 164 km

There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.

Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.

With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!

We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.

And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Domenico Pozzovivo | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Rigoberto Uran

The Stage 15 preview will be up a few hours after the conclusion of Stage 14. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Collecchio > Savona – 249 km

Thanks to the landslide that forced race organizers to add 10 kilometers to Stage 6, what would have been the longest stage in the Giro d’Italia is now the second longest, but regardless, it’s still quite a lengthy trip from start to finish in Stage 11. It comes after a rest day and a sprinters’ day (on which VeloHuman stage favorite Nacer Bouhanni again took a victory ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo), but with a very important individual time trial on the horizon, the GC contenders might be content to let the early attackers stay out front all day. What’s more, the rolling parcours of Stage 11 is one of the most breakaway-friendly profiles in the Giro. Whoever is on the front as the kilometers tick down, the steep Naso di Gatto (Category 2, 7.2 km at an average of 8%) must be crested about 30 km from the finish, and with a long descent to the finish line to follow, there should be plenty of action towards the end of the day.

As with any likely breakaway scenario, this one will be extremely difficult to call. Predicting which riders are well-suited for a parcours is difficult enough, but predicting which will try to get into a break and succeed in their efforts is even harder! Still, some names stand out ahead of others as likely candidates (though as wide open as the stage is, the list of potential contenders here is a long one). Many of the riders I like for the stage have the sort of skillset that could excel both from a breakaway or from the pack.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo has the burst to make a strong bid for victory over the final climb. He’s out of the GC picture and hunting for stage wins and mountain points. With an ITT and then a rather flat day to come, he can afford to go deep on this long stage. Stefano Pirazzi of Bardiani – CSF is another rider with similar goals, and he’s known for his ability to put the hammer down for a quick uphill attack. This stage won’t require the legs of some of the high mountain climbs to come, but it will favor those with some punch, which will be in Pirazzi’s wheelhouse.

Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen is very well-suited to this difficult parcours. He could give the day’s breakaway and shot, a if he can make the group, he’ll be a very dangerous rider, with the all-around skillset to stay out front for a very long time and a top speed that is tough to match at the line. His teammate Ben Swift may see this as an opportunity as well. For the same reasons, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews could look to get into the breakaway. This trio of versatile fast-finishers might be able to hold on over the final climb from the pack as well, but they could have better chances if they go out front themselves; it will be interesting to see how to play it, but in either scenario, all three are potential stage winners.

Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto has hit a lot of misfortune in this Giro, going down in the rainy opening stages on more than one occasion. This long, undulating parcours with a short but steep climb towards the end is reminiscent of the classics, where Gasparotto has had success in his career. This could be a day for him to try to make the breakaway. Neri-Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi and Mauro Finetto have similar skillsets and could also make a bid to get out front. Cannondale has Moreno Moser, Daniele Ratto, and Oscar Gatto for this sort of contest. Stefano Pirazzi’s Bardiani – CSF teammate Enrico Battaglin is another rider with good climbing legs and a nice kick, and he could be a nice bet. The same is true for Julian Arredondo’s Trek teammate Fabio Felline. Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen loves grueling stages that will put the endurance of his breakaway companions to the test, while teammate Tim Wellens is an aggressive, versatile rider with a fast finish who is targeting stages and possibly even mountain points. Katusha’s Luca Paolini has the classics background for a long day of rolling hills. Stage 9 winner Pieter Weening of Orica-GreenEdge might be able to hang tough out front on this profile. Sky’s Dario Cataldo also has the endurance and won’t be troubled by the climbs. Team Colombia has numerous options in Fabio Duarte, Robinson Chalapud, and Miguel Angel Rubiano. Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas was suffering after-effects of a crash in a pair of earlier stages that looked to suit him but he seems to be back on form now, and could target this one. Former GC hopefuls like Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Lampre’s Damiano Cunego could find the finale suits them.

The punchier types listed above could decide they have better chances from the peloton; however, even if the breakaway is reeled in, those who have decided to stay in the pack will have to contend with the GC riders for supremacy on Stage 11. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi has been known to struggle on the longer days but he’s shown improved endurance so far in this Giro and this parcours is well-suited to his talents. If he weren’t so high up on GC at the moment, he’d probably target this one from the breakaway, but he’ll have to settle for his chances from the peloton. Rigoberto Uran of OPQS has the burst for an uphill charge, or a reduced sprint. His teammate Wout Poels is close enough on GC that he might not be allowed into the breakaway, but he has shown a nice combination of endurance, climbing legs, and burst this year and could do well with a late attack from the pack. BMC’s Cadel Evans has put his nice sprint on display in this race and could succeed if things hold together over the final climb and descent. Wilco Kelderman of Belkin has also proven he can be in the mix with a late move or in a reduced sprint.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looks very strong right now and he’s not afraid to jump from the pack when the road goes up. Pierre Rolland could try to get aggressive on the final bump as well. This isn’t really the sort of ascent that makes one think of Nairo Quintana but he’s always worth a mention with a late steep climb, though he still seems to be in a bit of pain from his Stage 6 crash and might want to conserve his energy for a very important ITT on Thursday.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Diego Ulissi

After the conclusion of Stage 11, keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 12; the individual time trial will have major GC implications. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 20, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Lugo > Sestola – 172 km

Another mountain test awaits the peloton on the Giro d’Italia’s ninth stage. The big names will all be at least a bit winded after a tough day: the GC riders put in some high pace on the climbs of Stage 8 to reel in the last survivor of the early breakaway, Julian Arredondo, in the final minutes, and then Diego Ulissi put in an impressive uphill charge for the stage victory. The first 110 kilometers of Sunday’s ninth stage are quite flat, but then the road kicks up leading into a trio of Categorized climbs: a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and then a long Cat. 2 ascent to the finish at Sestola. The first two lumps will take a bit out of the riders, but it’s the final climb that will do most of the hurting. 16.5 kilometers in total, it’s an irregular ascent that starts out with 8.5 km at a little under 5%, then jumps up to almost 9% (with a section of 13%) for 4 kilometers or so, and then eases off to 4.5% over the final few kilometers. The long first section, even at a less-than-fearsome gradient, will be a challenge after the peloton has already been riding skyward for so long. Whoever is at the front, the strongest climbers among the group should be able to hang on, but the attacks could come fast and furious in the very steep section that follows. If a lead group of riders makes it through to the gentler gradients near the top, a strong sprint will be useful in taking the day.

With so many of them hoping to pick up bonus seconds at the finish line, the GC riders made the effort to keep the break in check on Stage 8. There will certainly be opportunists who try to get ahead on Stage 9, but I’m not sure the peloton is feeling very generous at this point in the race. What’s more, some of the likeliest names for a breakaway success were very active in a tough Stage 8 and they’ll have a lot of recovering to do if they want to make a successful jump off the front in Sunday’s contest.

The irregular final climb makes this one tough to call even if the day’s breakers are swallowed up: a pure climber could take advantage of the brutal midsection on the slope and try for a solo move, but the GC strongmen have been very attentive so far about marshaling even the late attacks from the peloton. That could leave the stage open to a fast finish from a reduced bunch.

I think Stage 8 winner Diego Ulissi is in an excellent position to pick up a third win here. It’s not a particularly long stage, and the final climb provides opportunities both for a jump from the pack or a sprint victory. Ulissi is strong in either scenario, making him my top favorite. I do think he is a bit vulnerable if Movistar or AG2R really decide to put the hammer down for sustained periods in the steeper sections, but he’s been very impressive on the tough climbs so far.

Rigoberto Uran is also strong contender for a number of scenarios: he’s got the elite uphill ability to match any attacks that might come or even make them on his own, and he’s also got the turn of speed for a sprint finish. New pink jersey wearer Cadel Evans is another: he hasn’t shown many signs of weakness on the climbs yet, and on lesser gradients he’s one of the fastest finishers of the GC riders. BMC’s team support in the mountains has been surprising so far, with Steve Morabito doing some amazing work for his leader on Stage 8. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has ridden himself into this conversation with some very strong finishes lately; this time last year I viewed him as a strong time trialist who could hold his own on the climbs, but suddenly he looks like a top climber who can be explosive at the line as well.

Nairo Quintana is an obvious choice for any stage that ends with 16.5 uphill kilometers, but the grade becomes much less challenging near the top, which doesn’t favor his style and will probably require a long distance move for him to stay away. The same is true for Domenico Pozzovivo. Still, either rider could launch from afar on the steeper gradient, and both have strong teams to help whittle down the group as the going gets tough. Pozzovivo’s AG2R squad, in particular, has been sterling. They were quite prominent at the head of the pack on the climbs of Stage 8.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo would be a good pick to get aggressive on this profile but after such a strong performance on Stage 8, I’m not sure he’ll have the energy to pull off another. The same is true for his breakaway companion Stefano Pirazzi and for the rider who made a dash of his own late on the road up to Montecopiolo, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland.

For some outsiders among the GC guys: Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has done a nice job to pick up the slack in the absence of Dan Martin and he can put in a nice turn of uphill speed. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has been climbing very well. Astana’s Fabio Aru has really lived up to the hype so far, which is crucial now that Michele Scarponi has fallen off the pace. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi has taken his game to the next level this season and is climbing amazingly right now.

Of the riders that might be allowed to jump ahead, Daniel Moreno has to be the biggest name for me on this profile. He has the perfect skillset for the stage, and he’s too far down on GC to be a threat in the pink jersey contest. Also on the list of strong would-be GC riders who have fallen off the pace are Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Astana’s Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego (who excels at this sort of finish). Other riders who might find success in the right move include Lotto Belisol’s Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen, OGE’s Pieter Weening, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Miguel Rubiano, Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini and Mauro Finetto, and Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin and Edoardo Zardini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Rigoberto Uran

After Stage 9, the peloton gets to enjoy a rest day. The preview of Tuesday’s Stage 10 will be up on Monday. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

May 17, 2014