VeloHuman

Tag: Luka Mezgec

  • Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 5 Preview

    Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 5 Preview

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    Stage 5: Alp › Valls – 195.4 km

    After a few days of mountain climbs, punctuated by Tejay van Garderen’s emphatic stage win at the La Molina ski resort on Stage 4, the Volta a Catalunya heads back towards sea level on Stage 5. The first half of the day comprises mostly downhill roads. A long, low-gradient, uncategorized climb to Belltall awaits after kilometer 140, followed by another descent that lasts until just after kilometer 180, where the peloton will hit the day’s only categorized climb, the Alt de Lilla, 4.1 kilometers at a 4.8% average gradient. From there it’s a steep downhill almost all the way to the finish line.

    The lack of space after the final descent will make this an enticing target for the punchier, aggressive types, but last year’s Valls stage went to Luka Mezgec ahead of Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in a sprint. Still, with things so close on the General Classification, and bonus seconds on the line that could change the outcome of the overall, expect to see some attacks flying here. In short, this stage could come down to a bunch sprint, it could come down to a reduced sprint, or it could go to a bold attacker off the front; I would characterize each potential outcome as about equally likely, making this a tough stage to call in a race that has already been full of surprises so far.

    JJ Rojas is versatile enough to survive some selection on the climbs and he is in great sprinting shape at the moment. With Valverde a bit out of the frame in the GC picture, Rojas might be able to hunt for results without looking over his shoulder as frequently to see if the team leader is nearby and hunting for bonus seconds. This is a nice opportunity for him.

    Julian Alaphilippe also has decent climbing legs and a great finishing kick. If this comes down to a sprint, he should be in the mix.

    Luka Mezgec knows how to win here and he’ll look to stay near the front of the pack towards the stage to battle it out in a potential bunch sprint. Bryan Coquard came into the Volta looking strong and this is a good profile for him, as he is extremely fast but also capable of surviving a climb, but it hasn’t been a great race for him so far. Still he could turn it around in this finale.

    As has already been said in VH’s race previews, look for Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Wilco Kelderman, and Rigoberto Urán (roughly in order of sprinting prowess, though Valverde is undoubtedly scraping the bottom of the barrel for energy at this point after coming here directly from Milano-Sanremo) to fight it out for stage honors if action on the last climb sheds the sprinters from the peloton. In fact, any of those riders could also be the instigators of said action. Enrico Gasparotto, Cyril Gautier, and Martin Elmiger are among the punchier riders who might be able to stick with aggressive GC riders or who could even launch attacks of their own.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. JJ Rojas | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Dan Martin

    Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis.

    -Dane Cash

  • Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 13 Preview

    Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 13 Preview

    Stage 13 Profile

    Stage 13: Fossano > Rivarolo Canavese – 157 km

    The Stage 12 ITT was a decisive one for the GC men. It rained heavily early on the day, but things dried out considerably for the later starters, throwing yet another variable into an already wide open stage. Climbing star Diego Ulissi even had the lead for a while (out of nowhere, I think it’s safe to say), until Rigoberto Uran put in a stellar performance to take the victory. Now, the GC riders get to enjoy a day that isn’t likely to have any GC implications. There are some minor bumps along the 157 kilometer journey from Fossano to Rivarolo Canavese, but with a flat finish and some very tough mountain days ahead, Stage 13 will be an enticing prize for the sprinters’ teams.

    The small rollers shouldn’t trouble the fast men much, but as usual, the organizers have designed another difficult run-in, with some late twists and turns. Things actually go uphill a bit from about the 1-km-to-go mark to the 500-m-to-go mark before leveling out towards the line. A sharp right-hander awaits with 250 meters to go, and then the finishing straight is a little over 200 meters long.

    Nacer Bouhanni delivered a third stage win in the last Giro bunch sprint, and until his rivals show that they can position themselves and time their jumps more successfully on these very technical run-ins to the line, Bouhanni remains the favorite. In every sprint preview I feel the need to point out that I don’t think Bouhanni is necessarily faster than his opponents; he’s a wily bike rider who gets into perfect position and uses his elite acceleration to carry him past the other sprinters on the road. I continue to believe that the gap between Bouhanni and the rest of the field is smaller than it looks, but no one else seems capable of closing it at the moment, making him the favorite.

    Giacomo Nizzolo appears to have the best chance for taking the win from the points leader. He’s been 2nd on all three stages that Bouhanni has taken. Each time, he’s put in a great turn of speed, but he tends to mistime his move. In Stage 10, he hit the wind way too early and Bouhanni simply jumped on his wheel and then swung out in the closing meters for the victory. Perhaps Nizzolo will get it right some time during this race, though he hasn’t seemed to figure it out just yet.

    A crash ruined Elia Viviani‘s chances on Stage 10, and he’s significantly further down in the red jersey competition than he thought he’d be at this point. He’s motivated to put in a better performance this time around, but these technical finishes do not treat Viviani or his leadout kindly. He also seems to be just a bit slower than he was earlier in the season. Still, rain, crashes, and some very physical jostling for position have kept him from getting to top speed in the last few sprint stages, so I am not counting him out.

    Giant-Shimano has been providing Luka Mezgec with strong leadout support in the absence of Marcel Kittel. Mezgec doesn’t have the top-end speed to match the very best, but with this sort of help from his team, he can win anyway. Bouhanni’s domination may make these flat stages look predictable, but I don’t think GSH has been very far off the mark getting Mezgec perfectly placed to take the win, and Stage 13 could be their moment.

    Barring a crash, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari will almost certainly be in the Top 10. He’s been amazingly consistent in this Giro. Actually winning the stage will be a big ask, but he’s an aggressive rider who fights very hard (sometimes a little too hard) for positioning and that makes him a contender.

    Sky’s Ben Swift has been hampered by injury in the past few sprints but he should be coming back into shape now. Edvald Boasson Hagen will play his standard role of star lieutenant. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar will hope to prove that he can stay upright through the twists and turns. With Nicola Ruffoni out of the race for Bardiani, Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli will hope to pick up the slack. Androni Giocatolli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi could also feature.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Luka Mezgec

    Keep an eye out for the Stage 14 preview after the Stage 13 comes to a close. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

    -Dane Cash

  • Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 10 Preview

    Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 10 Preview

    Stage 10 Profile

    Stage 10: Modena > Salsomaggiore Terme – 173 km

    After the rest day, it’s a very flat stage likely to go the sprinters. The all-rounders will enjoy the extended break from climbing after back-to-back days in the mountains. Pieter Weening hung on for Sunday’s Stage 9 victory after a long day in the breakaway and Domenico Pozzovivo picked up some valuable time on the rest of the GC contenders who finished mostly together atop a tough final climb.

    If the sprinters let Stage 10 one get away from them, they will have really dropped the ball: the profile shouldn’t leave much room for alternate scenarios. That last bump in the road is not particularly challenging, and shouldn’t cause any problems for the fast men. It is, however, followed by a tricky high-speed descent and yet another technical final few kilometers (the Giro seems to love forcing riders to put their bike handling skills on display at every sprint finish in the race) that will make the fight for position fierce.

    I am running out of new ways to name the same few riders as favorites for the flatter days, so I’ll just keep it direct. Nacer Bouhanni has shown that he’s the sprinter to beat in this Giro d’Italia now that Marcel Kittel is no longer in the race. He has the acceleration, he has the top speed, and, of special importance in these technical finishes, he has the ability to get himself into the right position for the final kick, even without a strong leadout. Until the other quick men show that they can put it all together as well as he can, Bouhanni is the favorite.

    That being said, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, and Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec are all very speedy and they all have dedicated leadouts working hard to get them set up perfectly for success. Having defeated Mark Cavendish twice already this season (in Turkey), Viviani may have the highest ceiling in the sprints, but his train hasn’t quite figured things out yet and Viviani himself has fallen short even when he has looked well-positioned in the last moments. Nizzolo looks in top shape but he continues to find himself just slightly out of place in the final meters, going too early or too late. Mezgec has a stellar leadout and he showed in Stage 7 that he has the ability to mix it up with the very best in the race, but he still has a bit to prove as he has only had a few opportunities to race for himself in the biggest races at this point in his young career. Really, any of these riders could get it right on Stage 10.

    Roberto Ferrari of Lampre-Merida has been remarkably consistent in this Giro, finishing in the Top 7 of all four sprint stages thus far. Maybe he’ll turn that consistency into a victory here. Sky’s Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen combination have been protagonists as well; both went down in Stage 6 but hopefully at least one of the pair is back to full strength by now. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews was a strong 4th in Stage 7, and now that he’s not in the pink jersey anymore his team won’t be spending as much time on the front of the peloton, which should give them a bit more freshness for the leadout. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi lead up a list of outsiders a bit further on the periphery.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

    The preview of Stage 11 will be up Tuesday evening after the conclusion of Stage 10. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.