Stage 16: Carcassonne › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 237.5 km
A flat stage (won by Alexander Kristoff) and a rest day may have given the peloton some time to gather strength, but three tough stages in the Pyrenees await. The first, Stage 16, is the longest day of racing the Tour de France has to offer, 237.5 kilometers from start to finish. The road gets hillier as the stage wears on, punctuated by an HC-rated climb crested with 21.5 kilometers remaining on the day. 11.7 kilometers long at an average gradient of 7.7%, it’s not the hardest Hors Categorie climb in the Tour, but it will be tough on the legs after so many kilometers of racing. From the top, it’s a fast, long, and at some points technical descent towards the finish, only flattening out for about 2 kilometers before the line.
The succession of ups and downs late in the race will make this stage a difficult one for the pack to control, and with two very challenging stages to come, the motivation to do so may not be particularly strong. Stage 16 looks like a great opportunity for a breakaway to stay clear to the line. Whoever wins this stage (regardless of whether that victory comes from the pack or the early move) will have to be a strong climber and a capable descender: the final ascent and the downhill that follows will see some aggressive riding that could decide the day.
As on any breakaway-friendly stage, there is no obvious favorite here, but there are several riders who have the skillset to pick up the win and who could try to get a headstart with a long-distance move. It would be a big surprise not to see Tinkoff-Saxo with a man in the day’s breakaway. Rafal Majka has quickly refound the legs that drove him to such a strong performance in the Giro, and out of the climbing specialists not in GC contention in the Tour de France, he’s one of the very strongest. However, he’s now a legitimate contender for the mountains classification and with plenty of KOM points on offer over the days to come, he may decide to save energy on this long day. If he does hold back from the early move, teammate Michael Rogers might be the one to watch: he put his strong descending skills on display during in his first stage win at the 2014 Giro, and he put his strong climbing legs on display in his second. He is on excellent form right now, finishing the last two mountain stages with the riders at the fringes of the GC Top 10 battle. Nicolas Roche is another great option for the team.
Joaquim Rodriguez will be thinking hard on how he’ll want to play the three stages to come to maximize his ability to contend on the climbs. He’s getting stronger as the Tour goes on, and he will be a favorite if he gets into the breakaway, but he may not be trying to go from that far out on Stage 16. Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are, as usual, nice alternatives for Katusha.
OPQS is another team with options. Michal Kwiatkowski is out of GC contention after a few bad days in the Alps, but he’s had a rest day to recover some energy. He’s a very aggressive rider who could try to get into a long-range move, and though he might struggle to make it up this climb with the GC powerhouses, against the competition within a breakawy, he’d have a fighting chance. He’s an excellent descender and a great sprinter, making him a nice candidate. Teammate Tony Martin is also a very strong descender, and given his impressive engine, he’s less likely to be fatigued after a long day in the saddle. Versatile Jan Bakelants is yet another option.
Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa is almost 13 minutes back on GC, and may have some freedom to go up the road. Frank Schleck is almost two minutes behind him, and while not a great descender, he’s been climbing very well. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has been active in the breakaways and although he has fallen short so far, he’s shown nice form. His teammate Peter Sagan may actually be one to watch here as well: this final climb is tough, but it’s not so tough that his survival is out of the question. If he makes it up in the lead group, it’s hard to see anyone outmatching him on the long descent or a potential sprint finale. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Sky’s Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas (or even Richie Porte, if he has recovered some of his strength), Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, OGE’s Michael Albasini and Simon Gerrans, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other riders who might like the look of the Stage 16 profile and who could be protagonists from afar.
If this all comes back together before or on the slopes of the Port de Balès climb, expert descender Vincenzo Nibali and fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites: the final ascent is tough, but there are hard days ahead with slopes better designed for GC action, and if riders crest the summit in groups, the fight for stage success will be all about the descent and the sprint to the line. Valverde reported mechanical issues during Stage 14, suggesting that his relatively poor showing on the final climb there was not an issue of form. He’s not a bad descender, and his sprint would give him an edge for this stage if he is in the lead group near the end of the day.
It is possible that attacks from some of the strong-climbing riders a bit further down on GC are allowed up the road on the final ascent: in that case, watch out for NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig, who is looking very sharp right now, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who rarely misses an opportunity to strike for glory. One other rider to keep an eye on is AG2R’s Romain Bardet. With a time trial approaching, he knows he needs to do everything in his power to strengthen his position, and given the well-publicized problems his French rival Thibaut Pinot has with fast descents, don’t be surprised to see Bardet attempt to put Pinot under pressure on Stage 16.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Michael Rogers | 2. Michal Kwiatkowski | 3. Alejandro Valverde
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 16, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.
-Dane Cash