Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.
The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.
Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.
Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.
Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.
Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans
Another mountain test awaits the peloton on the Giro d’Italia’s ninth stage. The big names will all be at least a bit winded after a tough day: the GC riders put in some high pace on the climbs of Stage 8 to reel in the last survivor of the early breakaway, Julian Arredondo, in the final minutes, and then Diego Ulissi put in an impressive uphill charge for the stage victory. The first 110 kilometers of Sunday’s ninth stage are quite flat, but then the road kicks up leading into a trio of Categorized climbs: a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and then a long Cat. 2 ascent to the finish at Sestola. The first two lumps will take a bit out of the riders, but it’s the final climb that will do most of the hurting. 16.5 kilometers in total, it’s an irregular ascent that starts out with 8.5 km at a little under 5%, then jumps up to almost 9% (with a section of 13%) for 4 kilometers or so, and then eases off to 4.5% over the final few kilometers. The long first section, even at a less-than-fearsome gradient, will be a challenge after the peloton has already been riding skyward for so long. Whoever is at the front, the strongest climbers among the group should be able to hang on, but the attacks could come fast and furious in the very steep section that follows. If a lead group of riders makes it through to the gentler gradients near the top, a strong sprint will be useful in taking the day.
With so many of them hoping to pick up bonus seconds at the finish line, the GC riders made the effort to keep the break in check on Stage 8. There will certainly be opportunists who try to get ahead on Stage 9, but I’m not sure the peloton is feeling very generous at this point in the race. What’s more, some of the likeliest names for a breakaway success were very active in a tough Stage 8 and they’ll have a lot of recovering to do if they want to make a successful jump off the front in Sunday’s contest.
The irregular final climb makes this one tough to call even if the day’s breakers are swallowed up: a pure climber could take advantage of the brutal midsection on the slope and try for a solo move, but the GC strongmen have been very attentive so far about marshaling even the late attacks from the peloton. That could leave the stage open to a fast finish from a reduced bunch.
I think Stage 8 winner Diego Ulissi is in an excellent position to pick up a third win here. It’s not a particularly long stage, and the final climb provides opportunities both for a jump from the pack or a sprint victory. Ulissi is strong in either scenario, making him my top favorite. I do think he is a bit vulnerable if Movistar or AG2R really decide to put the hammer down for sustained periods in the steeper sections, but he’s been very impressive on the tough climbs so far.
Rigoberto Uran is also strong contender for a number of scenarios: he’s got the elite uphill ability to match any attacks that might come or even make them on his own, and he’s also got the turn of speed for a sprint finish. New pink jersey wearer Cadel Evans is another: he hasn’t shown many signs of weakness on the climbs yet, and on lesser gradients he’s one of the fastest finishers of the GC riders. BMC’s team support in the mountains has been surprising so far, with Steve Morabito doing some amazing work for his leader on Stage 8. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has ridden himself into this conversation with some very strong finishes lately; this time last year I viewed him as a strong time trialist who could hold his own on the climbs, but suddenly he looks like a top climber who can be explosive at the line as well.
Nairo Quintana is an obvious choice for any stage that ends with 16.5 uphill kilometers, but the grade becomes much less challenging near the top, which doesn’t favor his style and will probably require a long distance move for him to stay away. The same is true for Domenico Pozzovivo. Still, either rider could launch from afar on the steeper gradient, and both have strong teams to help whittle down the group as the going gets tough. Pozzovivo’s AG2R squad, in particular, has been sterling. They were quite prominent at the head of the pack on the climbs of Stage 8.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo would be a good pick to get aggressive on this profile but after such a strong performance on Stage 8, I’m not sure he’ll have the energy to pull off another. The same is true for his breakaway companion Stefano Pirazzi and for the rider who made a dash of his own late on the road up to Montecopiolo, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland.
For some outsiders among the GC guys: Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has done a nice job to pick up the slack in the absence of Dan Martin and he can put in a nice turn of uphill speed. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has been climbing very well. Astana’s Fabio Aru has really lived up to the hype so far, which is crucial now that Michele Scarponi has fallen off the pace. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi has taken his game to the next level this season and is climbing amazingly right now.
Of the riders that might be allowed to jump ahead, Daniel Moreno has to be the biggest name for me on this profile. He has the perfect skillset for the stage, and he’s too far down on GC to be a threat in the pink jersey contest. Also on the list of strong would-be GC riders who have fallen off the pace are Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Astana’s Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego (who excels at this sort of finish). Other riders who might find success in the right move include Lotto Belisol’s Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen, OGE’s Pieter Weening, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Miguel Rubiano, Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini and Mauro Finetto, and Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin and Edoardo Zardini.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Rigoberto Uran
Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.
Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.
Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.
Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.
BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.
With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.
Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.
It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.
Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
Fabian Cancellara has just won a thrilling Tour of Flanders sticking a late move with Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke, and Stijn Vandenbergh and outgunning all three Belgians at the line. Check back soon for a post-race impressions on De Ronde, and remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. The cobbled experts remain in Northern Europe through the week waiting for the Hell of the North to kick off. Meanwhile, many of the pro peloton’s top GC riders are on again in Spain, lining up for the Tour of the Basque Country. The often rainy, rarely flat journey through the region, a spectacle notable enough to be mentioned in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, draws an impressive start list to match its always-exciting parcours. In fact, every winner since 2007 also has at least one Grand Tour win or 2nd place in a Grand Tour on his palmares. Last year’s victor, Nairo Quintana, went on to take 2nd overall in the 2013 Tour de France. He is not returning to defend his title, but Alberto Contador, Quintana’s Grand Tour winning teammate Alejandro Valverde, and many other heavy hitters will line up to take on the ups and downs of Pais Vasco.
Stages 4 and 6 will be crucial GC battlegrounds at the 2014 Tour of the Basque Country
Though a stage or two might go to a sprinter, none of the stages in the Tour of the Basque country could be considered “flat.” The very 1st stage might create time gaps if a punchy climber launches on one of the many sharp Category 2 ascents on the day, including a one starting within 10 kilometers of the finish. The 4th and 6th stages could be most decisive: Stage 4 finishes with a climb of Arrate (though it ends on a short downhill), where Nairo Quintana climbed to the stage victory in 2013. Anyone with ambitions of winning this race, however, will have to keep it together through the 6th and final stage, a 25.9 kilometer time trial with a pair of serious climbs along the way. And throughout the week, you can expect rainy weather to force all the contenders to adapt.
All-Rounder Roundup
After his dominant victory at Tirreno-Adriatico and strong showing for 2nd place at Catalunya, the GC conversation at Pais Vasco has to start with two-time winner of this race, Alberto Contador. Tinkoff-Saxo’s star is back with a vengeance in 2014, and this is an event in which he has a great history of success. While the race lacks an interminable uphill slog to a summit finish that one might see in a Grand Tour, there are plenty of climbing miles for Alberto to wear down lesser challengers. Moreover, the stage 6 time trial will favor Contador’s high endurance game over the purer climbers who struggle against the clock. Tinkoff-Saxo does not send their top rider to Pais Vasco alone, however; Roman Kreuziger joins Contador for this race as he joined him at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished on the podium. As an Ardennes-winner with the ability to jump ahead on the short steep climbs (of which there are many in this race), Roman Kreuziger is a danger man. He also has a great time trial. Tinkoff-Saxo’s one-two punch will put other teams under a ton of pressure.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has not raced the Basque Country often in recent years, but he had a great deal of success earlier in his career, coming in 2nd in 2006 and nabbing several stage wins across multiple editions. A two time Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, and also a winner of the Basque Country’s most famous one day race, the Clasica de San Sebastian, Valverde has some experience finding the perfect launching pad among a succession of climbs. He can also hold his own against the clock, especially in the mountains. Most importantly, he’s on fire in 2014, having already won a slew of lower level victories. As usual, Movistar sends plenty of support. Basque Country native Benat Intxausti was 8th here in 2013 and 2nd in 2010. He packs both excellent climbing ability and a strong time trial. Young Jon Izagirre, another rider from El Pais Vasco and a former Euskaltel squad member to boot, will also look to use his combined climbing and trialing ability to make a showing in this race. With several strong options, Movistar will likely be very active this week.
World Champion Rui Costa is an excellent all-rounder who will love the stage profiles; only a few singularly grueling climbs, many small but difficult ascents thrown in, and a hilly time trial to finish (Costa is strong against the clock when there is climbing involved). Costa will look for every opportunity to jump off the front when the rest of the peloton grinds to a halt going uphill, not only because every second will count in this race (though there are no bonus seconds at the line), but also because he’s still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey in 2014. Teammate Damiano Cunego has had many strong results in Pais Vasco, with numerous top 10s in the past few years.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is coming off an excellent trip to Catalunya, where he climbed his way to his first WorldTour victory on stage 4, and 3rd place overall. He must be ecstatic to have landed such fine results in a race without a time trial. In Pais Vasco, the American all-rounder will be salivating at the final day’s test against the clock, which will suit his engine. In addition, his Catalunya victory seems to show an improved ability to explode uphill, which will help van Garderen in the days prior to the final chrono. BMC will be backing him up with quite a supporting cast. Cadel Evans makes the trip to prepare for the Giro. Samuel Sanchez, who has a great history of success in this race, winning in 2012, will look to put together a result for his new team. He was still a bit off his game in Catalunya but the Tour of the Basque Country suits him and I believe he will be motivated to step up.
Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur heads up the suddenly world-beating AG2R team. Minor injury put his participation in question until the last minute, but he seems set to start. He was 7th last year, and on stellar form in 2014, he’s a great bet to pick up time charging ahead on the early stages of this race; the biggest challenge for Betancur will be the final stage, as he generally struggles against the clock. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud may actually be the better overall bet, coming off basically the first big victory of his very long career in the Criterium International last week. He is good against the clock, especially in this kind of ITT, and with his 4th place at Tirreno-Adriatico he showed an impressive ability to contend with the top GC guys right now. Versatile Christophe Riblon is yet another option for AG2R.
Early season star Michal Kwiatkowski had a very disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico, and his only race since was a DNF at Milano-Sanremo. He was on blazing form in February and March, but it is unclear if he has still kept that top-shelf shape into April. If so, he is very dangerous here, with so many short climbs that suit him much better than the grueling T-A stage that sunk his hopes in that race. If he can limit his losses uphill, especially on Stage 4, he will be a strong contender to win the final time trial outright, making him a good bet for the overall at Pais Vasco 2014.
Belkin’s dynamic duo of Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink (3rd here in 2011) will hope that Pais Vasco goes better for them than Tirreno-Adriatico did (Mollema was well of the pace and Gesink abandoned T-A with a health issue). Both have looked good in other races this season, and I think the Pais Vasco parcours will be good for them. Simon Spilak leads the Katusha charge; 4th in 2013, he’s looked alright so far in 2014 with results that include a Top 10 in Paris-Nice. He can do a decent time trial when there are hills involved. FDJ sends Thibaut Pinot, who looked to be rounding into form at Catalunya after struggling to get his season started. Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal also looked to be getting back into shape at Catalunya after not participating in many races so far in 2014. He was 6th at the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain this week, so he seems to be continuing to improve. Andy and Frank Schleck headline Trek Factory Racing. Frank has looked decent so far this year, but teammate Robert Kiserlovski might be their most on-form rider here after his 7th in Tirreno-Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Pieter Weening showed in last year’s Tour de Pologne that a hilly time trial suits him; he was 6th in Pais Vasco in 2013. Adam and Simon Yates are also along for OGE; keep an eye out for the highly touted young duo. Giant-Shimano’s pair of Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin could make waves here. Barguil will love the constant opportunities to jump up the road on a climb, and Dumoulin is a serious time trialing talent. Astana sends Mikel Landa, Janez Brajkovic, and Tanel Kangert (who is great against the clock). Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hope that this is the race that puts him on track in 2014. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo abandoned Catalunya in the final day but had been climbing at a high level before then; teammate Luis Leon Sanchez is a time trialing talent who has had plenty of success racing bikes in El Pais Vasco. Pierre Rolland has not gotten it going yet in 2014, but the two-time Tour de France Top 10er at least deserves a mention. And lastly: in a rare occurrence, Sky does not really have a top contender in this race, with their various stars racing, training, or recovering elsewhere; Mikel Nieve and Peter Kennaugh are their best bets here.
Stagehunters
The dearth of flat stages has kept the start list light on sprinting talent. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews and Sky’s Ben Swift will be happy to pick up whatever sprint finishes they can. Barring any late additions to the startlist Michael Morkov and Daniele Ratto comprise basically the rest of the list of riders to watch in a bunch gallop.
As with many races with this kind of parcours, most stages will see the GC contenders on their toes and alert for opportunities to strike; some of them, riders like Valverde, Costa, and Kwiatkowski will be looking to pick up multiple stage wins as well as fight for the General Classification. Holding off these big names will be a challenge for the stagehunters here, but the list of punchy fast-finishers among them is an impressive one: Orica Green-Edge’s Simon Gerrans (who won a stage last year), and BMC’s Philippe Gilbert headline the group. A number of the stars of Paris-Nice make the start as well. Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter will love his chances to pick up more stage victories here. The same could be said for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier will look for his first WorldTour win after a fine start to 2014. Jan Bakelants and Pieter Serry of OPQS also like to jump on the late bumps in the road and both have fast finishes. Astana’s Maxim Iglinskiy and Enrico Gasparotto could be active as well.
Amets Txurruka deserves a mention all to himself: he will almost certainly be up the road going for the long breakaway victory on multiple days of this race. He was King of the Mountains last year.
VeloHuman Favorites
Winner: Alberto Contador Podium: Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde Top 10: Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowksi, Roman Kreuziger, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur
Be sure to follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race, and come back soon for more classics coverage: the Paris-Roubaix preview is up next!
The Scenario: A Climber’s Dream Course in Catalunya
Just one day after the first sprinter-friendly Milano-Sanremo in years, the Volta a Catalunya, a climber’s dream course, begins about an hour north of Barcelona in Calella, Spain. 2014’s Volta a Catalunya, like past editions of the race, offers a parcours rife with uphill action, including a third stage dominated by Alt de la Creueta, a climb that caps a larger section of over 30 kilometers at an over 3% on average grade. That brutal stage finishes atop the Category 1 summit of La Molina, but the riders will have little time to rest before embarking on the fourth stage, where they will be welcomed by three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish at the Vallter 2000 ski resort. Stage 6 looks like the only day that the GC contenders will try to take comfortably, with almost 60 downhill or flat kilometers into the finish. While not as demanding as the two aforementioned high mountain days, stages 1, 2, 5, and 7 will require the overall contenders to be on their toes, with late climbs likely to inspire attacks. In short, this is not a race for the faint of heart, or the heavy of frame. The parcours has drawn quite a startlist, one that will pit some of the top GC climbers against one another in a contest of early season form.
Before I dive in, the important notes: follow the still-practically-brand-new Twitter account @VeloHuman for plenty of live analysis during the race (and check it out soon for live Milano-Sanremo updates and analysis)! MSR post-race thoughts will be up not long after today’s contest, and the next preview on the docket is the 28th’s E3 Harelbeke, so you might as well just keep this window open for a few days to come!
All-rounder Roundup
Chris Froome dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain, but he’ll be lining up for the Volta a Catalunya at the head of Sky’s finest to make a bid for victory. He reminded the peloton of his supremacy atop Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman in late February, but he hasn’t raced since, making the form, and the general health, something of an unknown. He’ll need all his ability against the field. Fortunately, trusted lieutenant Richie Porte will be there to play second. Porte was forced to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico for health reasons himself, but he looked sharp there before he left. Together with climbing talents Mikel Nieve and David Lopez, Sky’s top GC riders will look to pick up results at the WorldTour level. It is hard to predict how they will do, given health concerns, but if nagging issues are resolved by the time the race begins, obviously they’re quite the one-two punch, even without a time trial in the race.
A revitalized Alberto Contador (who “won” this race in 2011, but was stripped of the title as part of his doping penlaties) took Tirreno-Adriatico by storm, and he’ll attend Catalunya looking to further prove his improved form against those riders who were not in attendance during his spectacular Stage 5 performance in Italy, ie. Froome, Porte, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Contador’s team will not include his chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger or Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka was a late scratch, leaving him a bit understaffed with lieutenants. The big question for Contador is whether he can maintain the otherworldly level he was on last week into this week’s contest.
Joaquim Rodriguez leads Katusha’s charge alongside Daniel Moreno. Purito was 2nd here last year and won in 2010, and he looked on fine form in Oman. Moreno was very strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, among the best climbers in the race. With no troublesome time trials to put them behind the likes of Froome and Porte, Catalunya will likely see the usual uphill fireworks from these two, with plenty of potential stage wins in play. Moreno and Rodriguez are both known for explosiveness and fast finishes, but they’ve also gotten better and better on the long haul climbs, and they’ll need to be at their best with a few ascents that seem to go on forever in this race.
4th in last year’s edition was Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, who is coming off a sharp 2nd place in Tirreno-Adriatico. He was not able to match Alberto Contador’s uphill ability there, but he also had not taken part in a stage race in almost two months. I think he will be a bit more acclimated to the grind now. The unrelenting climbing will suit his skillset perfectly. Update: there are reports that Quintana is taking antibiotics to get over a cold, which will obviously make things harder for him here.
Last year’s winner (and prior to that, two time runner-up) Daniel Martin, was made for this race and its parcours. The pure climber sealed his victory in 2013 with a fearless uphill attack on the 4th stage that left Purito and Quintana in its wake. His past results here might make him a bigger favorite in this race if his form weren’t such a question mark. With his eyes on a defense of Monument classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then a Giro starting in his home country of Ireland, Martin’s goals may have shifted somehwat this year. He’s still a strong contender, but Ryder Hesjedal (form also a question mark), late addition Andrew Talansky, and Tom Danielson are other cards for Garmin to play should Martin not be at peak form just yet.
AG2R sends a fearsome trio to Catalunya, led by Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur. Questions about his shape and form were more than answered by his dominance in P-N, and Catalunya is another opportunity for him to make a statement, this time against better GC-style competition. Domenico Pozzovivo had a fine Tirreno-Adriatico, notching a 6th place. Romain Bardet‘s chances at Paris-Nice were derailed by an early crash, but he’ll be yet another uphill option for AG2R in Spain this week.
Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran seemed 100% committed to the cause of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, and did not challenge for GC himself. Still, I believe he is in good form, and probably looking for a chance to prove it; against many the top climbers in the sport, he’ll have a good chance this week. New teammate Thomas de Gendt took his last pro victory in the final stage of this race in 2013. Perhaps he’ll look to 2014 as an opportunity to get back on track. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen looked very strong in Oman, second on the decisive climb to Chris Froome, but had to abandon Paris-Nice early due to illness. If he still has the kind of form that he showed in Oman, he has a fine opportunity here, with a chance to put his uphill diesel engine to work on these long climbs. Teammate Samuel Sanchez has had a great deal of success in this race over the years, winning stages and landing several strong GC showings, though it’s hard to guess his form right now.
Chris Horner abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with tendinitis, but he looked sharp before then; teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec made last year’s top 10. Wilco Kelderman leads a strong Belkin team, and he’ll hope Cataluyna will provide the chance for glory than an untimely mechanical stole from him in Paris-Nice; he looked strong in that race. Laurens Ten Dam and Steven Kruisjwijk are good support options. Ivan Basso struggled in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he’ll look to rebound for Cannondale here. Warren Barguil leads Giant-Shimano up the Spanish climbs. Various ailments have kept Thibaut Pinot out of races early this year, but he took 8th place here last year and obviously the profile suits him if he’s healthy; Alexandre Geniez, Arnold Jeanneason and Kenny Elissonde are all strong support riders or backup options if need be for FDJ. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler will try to bring that team some success on up-down terrain that seems to suit them. Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest impressions of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Colombian climbing talent will love this time trial-less, route; meanwhile, teammate Robert Kiserlovski made it two in the top 10 for Trek at T-A, giving a team in sore need of GC contenders a surprising pair of them here. Lotto’s Jurgen van den Broeck will look to get on track after a series of disappointments this year. Astana sends Janez Brajkovic, Mikel Landa, and young Fabio Aru. Cofidis sends 2013 Tour top 10 finisher Daniel Navarro, who looked good in Andalucia. Caja Rural sends David Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanchez, who also looked good in Andalucia. The Pro Continental squads will have their work cut out for them against so many top climbers leading top climbing squads here. Update: Top-notch climber Jakob Fuglsang is a late addition to the Astana squad and therefore joins the realm of outside contenders.
Stagehunters
With so many stages for the GC style climbers, staggeringly few sprinters are even bothering to make the trip (no time trials means there aren’t any chrono men seeking ITT wins either). Stage 6 is likely to be contested by a pretty select list of riders in a mass gallop. AG2R’s Sam Dumoulin (who has excelled in this race, taking three stages in the past) Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo (coming off a broken collarbone), Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, Lotto’s Gregory Henderson, and OGE’s Leigh Howard look to be the most capable fast men on the start list. The first three also happen to be fairly versatile riders, for whom some of the hillier stages are not out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Roux is the sort of rider who might take advantage of some of the lumpier days. It seems inevitable that Caja Rural’s Amets Txurruka and Trek’s Jens Voigt will spend some time up the road looking for long-range victories. At least with so few riders making the start who aren’t focused on their own or their teammates’ GC aspirations, the stagehunters will have less competition for their one-day goals!
VeloHuman GC Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana Challengers: Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin
Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the E3 Harelbeke preview!
