VeloHuman

Tag: Nairo Quintana

  • Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

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    Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

    Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

    Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

    Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

    For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

    Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

    The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

    Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

    Contador Dominant in Italy

    Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

    Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

    Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

    AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

    Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

    Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

    For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

    Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

    What’s Next?

    Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Mike Slone.

  • Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Preview

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    Top Talent Everywhere at Tirreno-Adriatico

    Being able to watch two WorldTour stage races at the same time is almost too good to be true. Paris-Nice has kicked off already, and it’s been a thrilling ride so far, with three different sprinters winning the opening three stages; Bouhanni and Degenkolb were well above the competition in stages 1 and 3, respectively, and Moreno Hofland (VH did tell you he looked great this season!) made a brilliant WorldTour entrance on stage 2. There is even more action on the way tomorrow with the beginning of the “Race of the Two Seas,” boasting a start list packed with talent from all angles and specialties. While Paris-Nice took an unconventional approach to stage planning this year, drawing up a course with no mountaintop finishes and no time trials, Tirreno-Adriatico looks to be an archetypical stage race, opening with a team time trial, offering a few flat sprinters’ days and a few days in the mountains for the climbers, and then closing with an individual time trial. This race was made for a true blue GC rider at the head of a strong team.

    Before I dive in: don’t forget to follow the just-launched @VeloHuman on Twitter for more news and views during the race! And as usual, if you just want to cut straight to the GC Top 10 predictions, they’re at the bottom of this post.

    All-Rounder Roundup

    True blue GC riders leading strong teams are all over the startlist. First on the docket is a rider who wasn’t scheduled to ride this race until just this weekend, when Plan A, Chris Froome (who was 2nd last year to Vincenzo Nibali, currently at Paris-Nice), withdrew from Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain. Richie Porte steps into his place. The Australian was set to defend his Paris-Nice title, but he may have lucked out; with his combination of TT ability and long haul climbing, T-A seems to suit him much better than P-N. He’ll also have the benefit of a great chrono team on the opening stage, as Sky brings Bradley Wiggins, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Dario Cataldo, and Ian Stannard as well. Wiggins was another late addition, and after he announced a plan to also ride the Volta a Catalunya, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sir Bradley with his own GC ambitions.

    Tinkoff Saxo’s Alberto Contador nabbed 3rd place and the Points Classification of last year’s edition. He’s off to a hot start, winning a stage and taking 2nd in the Volta ao Algarve. He’ll bring quite a team to the 2014 race, with elite climbers Nicolas Roche and Roman Kreuziger (also looking sharp) to serve as impressive seconds. Tinkoff-Saxo will be a very difficult team to beat.

    Nairo Quintana and his Movistar squad will also bring serious firepower, with a squad well selected for this race: Quintana will love the uphill mileage but he’ll struggle on the final day’s time trial; good thing for him that Movistar is likely to set him up nicely from the first stage with some top men against the clock, including Alex Dowsett, Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori. Benat Intxausti, Igor Anton, Eros Capecchi, and Andrey Amador (surprisingly 8th here last year), will provide quite a buffer of talent on the hills as well. With the kind of form he showed in the Tour de San Luis, Quintana could put serious time on anyone not climbing at an elite level right now. I think it’s likely he will.

    BMC’s Cadel Evans has looked good in the early goings, and he’s won here in the past. With his all-round abilities, he can be a strong player in the GC game at this race. Other than Philippe Gilbert, he won’t have the name recognition supporting him that the other big GC guys will have, but Darwin Atapuma will make a strong ally on the slopes.

    OPQS is bringing a pairing of potential team leaders, making it difficult for opponents to plan accordingly. One of the hottest riders in the peloton right now is Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski, and he’ll roll into T-A as a great candidate for the overall, especially with the stalwart support of the team’s world-beating time trial skills giving him an advantage right out of the gate. He’s also a good pick to have the best final day chrono of any GC contender, as he excels in that discipline, especially over short distances. Meanwhile, OPQS is also sending top climber Rigoberto Uran, who will be a favorite on both mountain stages, and who will also be helped by the TTT. He was one of the strongest riders in the Tour of Oman, where he finished on the podium.

    I think the top of the leaderboard will be very tight among these top favorites. All of them are big names with big support and proven Grand Tour style talent, with the exception of Kwiatkowksi, who makes up for what he lacks in experience with on fire form. But this is one of the most impressive startlists you’ll see for a one week stage race this year, and that doesn’t simply apply to the top favorites.

    A number of challenger squads are taking a 1-2 punch approach: Belkin’s pairing of Robert Gesink (looking sharp so far) and Bauke Mollema will make them very difficult to plan against; both riders are very well-rounded, which will be helpful in this race. Garmin-Sharp brings their own top duo of Andrew Talansky and Daniel Martin, and there’s something for both of them here: Andrew Talansky has the big tank necessary for the long haul climb of stage 4 (and the finishing time trial), while Martin is just the type of rider to explode up the sloping finish of stage 5, and his style won’t be too hampered by the time trial, which will be short enough that he can probably cope; however, the form of both Garmin riders is an unknown. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud, both excellent uphill sloggers and both off to strong starts this year, will make a formidable mini-train when the road goes skyward. Lampre-Merida could go with the hot hand of Italian wunderkind Diego Ulissi, a force in the bonus seconds game and a strong presence at the Tour Down Under, or with newly acquired vet Chris Horner, who, despite being teamless for most of the offseason, looked like he hadn’t lost much form when he took to the slopes at the Volta ao Algarve. Astana sends former winner Michele Scarponi, looking alright so far this year, and Tanel Kangert, who gets better at climbing every day.

    Dani Moreno gets to race on his own in a rare occurrence, and he tends to do well enough as it is when he’s second to Purito; watch out for him here with bonus seconds in play and an ITT short enough not to disadvantage him too heavily. Thibaut Pinot pulled out of Oman, making his form an unknown, but he’s a contender if he’s in shape, though FDJ’s weak TTT squad won’t help his cause; Alexandre Geniez is another option. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is in a similar boat. Jurgen van den Broeck hasn’t showed much this year, but he’ll head up Lotto’s GC ambitions. Ivan Basso is yet another bringing unknown form but obvious talent. Robert Kiserlovski is probably Trek’s go to GC man, and he’ll at least have a decent start thanks to Cancellara and Co. in the opening stage.

    Stagehunters

    The list of riders here to chase stages is perhaps even more impressive. The four biggest names in sprinting will be in attendance, namely, Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and Peter Sagan. Greipel looks amazing right now and Kittel took several wins in Dubai. Mark Cavendish got started a bit later than Greipel and Kittel, but he took a stage win against very talented sprinters in the Volta ao Algarve. Sagan is his usual self, probably just a hair behind the big three pure sprinters but always lurking, and he’ll be gunning for the slightly uphill third stage finish. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who can probably handle stage 3 as well), Lampre’s very hot Sacha Modolo, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov will try to nab a sprint victory from the bigger names. Philippe Gilbert could also feature on the third stage. I’d love to see a guy like Sam Bennett take a stage win here but with such a talented field, it’s hard to see guys on the fringe with much of a shot.

    Not to be outdone by the caliber of sprinting talent in attendance, the three biggest names in time-trialing will set out from Donoratico as well: Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, and Fabian Cancellara. The final stage will be a treat for fans of chronos with so many TT specialists and GC contenders with TT ability gunning for victory. Orica-GreenEdge seems to have brought a squad hellbent on performing in both the opening team time trial and the final short ITT, with Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Cam Meyer and Svein Tuft all making the start. Every stage of this race really will feature top talents in every cycling specialty.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    GC Winner: Nairo Quintana

    GC Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Richie Porte

    GC Top 10: Alberto Contador, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky

    Check back in soon for post-race analysis and the next VH race preview (Milano-Sanremo is less than two weeks away). In the meantime, look for more news and views @VeloHuman on Twitter.

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Antonio Cinotti.

  • Post-year Impressions: Charting the Arrivals and Step-ups of 2013

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    2013 is in the books! Beñat Intxausti won the GC of the final WT race of the year, the Tour of Beijing, by taking a victory on the decisive fourth stage. Joaquim Rodriguez finishes the year as repeat WorldTour champion on the back of his GrandTour successes, a Monument victory, and a truckload of high placings in other big races.

    As this site is in the business of prospective analysis, my look back at 2013 will mostly be a look forward. I hope to shed some light on what we learned about the top riders in the sport this year, and which riders to watch in the future. If you’re reading VeloHuman, you don’t need me to tell you that Chris Froome is a rider to keep an eye on next year, or that Vincenzo Nibali is shaping up to be his main rival, or that Fabian Cancellara is still a talented racer. Instead, it’d be more productive for me to focus on the riders who made vast improvements in 2013, who we might say “arrived” this year, and who have set themselves up to do big things next year, so I’ll do just that, and name some names that I think made big strides this season and look to continue to do soon in the near future.

    A rather obvious duo headlines my list of the most emphatic arrivals this year. While everyone was busy wondering which Spaniard would present the best case against Chris Froome in the Tour de France, a 23-year old Colombian leg-muscled his way onto the scene, building off of early season success in the Tour of the Basque Country with a fierce display of climbing prowess on some of the Tour’s most difficult stages: Ventoux, Alpe d’Huez, Mont Semnoz. Though the early lead Froome had built up was insurmountable, Quintana’s later stage performances, matching the Sky captain’s every move uphill on his way to 2nd overall, a stage win, the polka-dot KoM jersey and the young rider’s white, he saved Movistar’s Tour after their team leader Alejandro Valverde hit some raw luck with a mechanical that dropped him out of contention. No one will overlook him next year, especially with such a climbing-oriented 2014 edition of the Tour de France on the docket. Alternatively, he could set his sights on the Giro. Quintana’s time trialing might need a bit of work, but he showed this year that he can outclimb most of the sport’s biggest names, and you have to think he can only get better, still a few years shy of his prime.

    Countryman Carlos Betancur blazed onto the scene with similar brightness. Top 10s at La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour of the Basque Country were followed by a highly successful Giro d’Italia, in which the young Colombian took 5th overall and the young rider classification. Like Quintana, he is sorely lacking in the time trialing department—his remarkable Giro was made all the more remarkable by his appearance in the top 10 after losing almost five minutes to the eventual winner of the race in the first ITT. Like Quintana, he’ll gun for future Grand Tour success in chrono-light parcours while he improves in that discipline, and while he may be a shade shy of Quintana’s level on the longer Tour style climbs, he’s more explosive than the Movistar wunderkind, and will surely be a fixture in the climber’s classics to come.

    Zdenek Stybar is my other most emphatic arrival of the year. His situation is unique, in that cycling fans have heard Stybar’s name for years, but in a different discipline. Making the switch from cyclocross appears to have worked out for the Czech rider: even after a collision with a fan robbed him of a potential podium position in Paris-Roubaix, he still finished 6th in that race, and followed it up with a dominant Eneco Tour and a beautiful stage win in the Vuelta where he outsprinted none other than former World Champ Philippe Gilbert. His versatility was dazzling, and he will go into the 2014 classics season as a hot favorite across all kinds of terrain—and isn’t that the perfect expectation for a former cyclocross world champion?

    Many other riders who were already well within the sights of cycling fans took leaps onto the highest level. Outside of Quintana, the most emphatic arrivals among riders who finished the year in the WorldTour top 10 were made by Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Dan Martin was already a name on the minds of observers at the start of the season, with a Grand Tour stage win in 2011 and the overall victory at the Tour de Pologne in 2010, but he took a Monument Classic, a Tour de France stage win, and the overall at the Volta a Catalunya this year, successes that vaulted him to 6th place in the final WorldTour rankings of 2013 (putting him ahead of Spartacus himself). And Rui Costa came into the year as a well-known talent as a winner of a Canadian GP, the Tour de Suisse, and a stage in the Tour de France, but his two Tour de France wins and World Championship (to go with another dominant Tour de Suisse) put him at cycling’s center stage. He goes to Lampre in 2014 as the team leader, a Tour de France GC hopeful. Another star of the Tour, Bauke Mollema was already a well-known name for many fans of the sport, having finished 4th overall and 1st in the points classification in the 2011 Vuelta, but he came into his own this year with strong performances all over the calendar, in the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta (where he won a stage to redeem a disappointing GC effort), and Clasica de San Sebastian. His emergence comes at just the right time, with teammate Robert Gesink having another disappointing year in terms of Grand Tour GC contention; however, Gesink showed strong late season form in shorter races, winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec and placing highly in other events, suggesting a possible change of focus to shorter races going forward. And the timing was ripe for Marcel Kittel to make an explosive entrance: after injury in 2012 robbed him of an opportunity to make his mark on that year’s tour, his 2013 outing, which earned him a quartet of stage wins, suddenly sees him in the best-of-the-best conversation with Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

    In case you missed it, his teammate Luka Mezgec was one of a number of young up-and-coming sprinters who showed promise this year. Mezgec spent the whole year nipping at the heels of other sprinters, racking up countless top 5s without a win until he finally picked up his first of the year and his first WT level win ever on the very last day of the WorldTour calendar in Beijing. Nacer Bouhanni took a pair of wins in that race to go with the points jersey, as well as a number of other wins this year, a boon for FDJ. His squadmate Arnaud Demare took stages in the Eneco Tour and the Tour de Suisse, an armful of honors in the Four Days of Dunkirk he won, and high placings in a number of one-day races. Yet another French, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, a former track cycling star, transitioned quite nicely onto the road, collecting honors left and right on the Continental circuit. The 21 year old will be a major force on the fast finishes in 2014 now that Europcar looks to be joining the top division of teams. Michael Matthews came into the Vuelta flying high after Continental Tour success and proceeded to establish himself as the best sprinter in that race, with a special talent for nabbing victories after tough days in the saddle. His skills nabbed him a pair of stage wins, including the victory on the final day’s sprinter battle royale.

    Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.

    The Vuelta gave us an opportunity to see a number of coming out parties for GC contenders. Leopold Konig landed in the top 10 and picked up a stage win at the head of a Pro Continental team, quite a feat for the 25 year old. He’ll stay with NetApp for another year and will hope his performance garners further invitations to big events, where he’s sure to continue his success. Meanwhile, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche achieved some long awaited success with a top 5 finish and a stage win. His constant presence at the front of the pack on mountaintop finishes in Spain suggests that he may finally have taken the step up to the next level, a good sign for 2014.

    Ulissi

    Poland showed off a pair of riders with top level ability this year. Nico Roche’s teammate Rafal Majka didn’t win any races, but he was 7th overall in the Giro d’Italia and 2nd to Betancur for the young rider classification in that race, and he followed up with a 4th overall in his home tour to go along with his 1st place in the points classification of that race. The honors kept piling up as the year went on, when he narrowly missed out on a victory in Milano-Torino against another rising star (pictured above) and then stood on the podium in the final Monument of the year in Lombardy. By the same token (eerily), Michal Kwiatkowski may still have yet to win a pro race, but he burst onto the scene this year with a boatload of strong performances. 4th in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Amstel Gold, 5th in La Fleche Wallonne, and a heartbreaking 11th in the Tour de France after fellow up-and-comer Andrew Talansky grabbed the final top 10 spot on the last day of climbing, Majka looks to be a likely candidate for continued climbing success, and Kwiatkowski showed an incredible array of skills and looks poised to stake a claim to best all-rounder in the very near future.

    A significant number of teams saw young climbing talents rising up the ladder this year. Many are Italian. 2011 Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi took a big step forward with successes on both ends of the season, nabbing a top 10 at Paris-Nice early and then a stage win in the Tour de Pologne and a string of semi-classic victories in Italy. So far, most of his quantifiable successes have been on smaller stages, but he performed at a high level in some big races this year (he was lurking in a number of stages in the Vuelta even if he didn’t come away with a win), inspiring a lot of confidence going forward. He’ll be part of an explosive one-two combination with Rui Costa at Lampre in 2014. Astana teammates Fabio Aru and Simone Ponzi look like prime candidates for success next year. Another Italian, Moreno Moser, had several standout performances this year for Cannondale; he disappeared at times when he was expected to bring his success to a bigger stage, but he showed in Strade Bianche and other races in 2013 that he certainly has the ability to turn promise into achievement in 2014.

    Spaniard Jon Izagirre won’t be sweating the dissolution of his former team Euskaltel too much now that he has a new squad in Movistar, and it’s easy to see why they signed him. He nabbed the runner-up honors in the Tour de Pologne with a surprising time trial performance on the last day, and notched top 10s in the Tour Down Under and the one day Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal as well.

    Vichot

    24 year old Arthur Vichot looks to be one of yet another up-and-comer for FDJ with strong climbing legs and a fast finish, abilities that netted him the French national championship, the runner-up honors in Quebec, and the victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, winner of the Tour de l’Ain and a high finisher in the Tour of Beijing, appears to have a bright future, and he joins teammate Carlos Betancur as part of a crop of young uphill chargers on that team.

    Wilco Kelderman, a natural time trial talent, came into his own as a climber with a number of high-level successes in 2013. He picked up top 10s in Romandie, the Eneco Tour, and the Tour Down Under, and dominated the Tour of Denmark, where he won a stage, the points classification, and the overall. He’s another exciting up-and-comer for Belkin.

    Argos-Shimano teammates Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin got themselves onto the map this year, the former nabbing a pair of breakaway victories in the Vuelta, and the latter claiming runner up honors with an impressive Eneco Tour performance. Alongside Marcel Kittel, Luka Mezgec, and John Degenkolb, the duo makes a potent quartet of Argos riders 25 and under.

    Riccardo Zoidl nabbed the GC win at the Tour of Austria, and climbed at a high level in a number of other events. Darwin Atapuma moves up from Team Colombia to BMC after nabbing his first WorldTour win this year in Poland—that team desperately needs new blood, and Atapuma will be happy to oblige.

    To match all these young climbers coming into their own, a few time trialists are on the rise: Adriano Malori looks to be a threat in that department, putting in a top 10 at the World Championship ITT and taking second place behind Tony Martin on a few time trial stages in WorldTour races to go along with his ITT victory and the overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt. Rohan Dennis out-time-trialed Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine on his way to a top 10 there and then showed his versatility when he won a stage and the overall in the Tour of Alberta. The 23 year old has established himself as a promising member of Garmin’s youth movement.

    This list is by no means exhaustive, and obviously much depends on how you define breakout success, but hopefully I’ve rattled off the names of many of tomorrow’s biggest names. And thanks to the Tour Down Under and its January start date, we won’t have too long to wait for the opening of the 2014 calendar–in just 11 weeks, the pro peloton heads to Nuriootpa, Australia to kick off the new season!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Flowizm, brassynn, and Georges Ménager.

  • Tour de France 2013 Post-race Impressions: Froome Lightyears Ahead and a Youth Movement on the Rise

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    Brief Recap

    After Chris Froome crested stage 8’s Ax-3 Domaines way ahead of everyone else in contention, many were worried that the remaining two weeks of competition would be boring. While Team Sky’s 28-year old leader held onto the jersey tightly all the way to Paris, even increasing his lead on the rest of the bunch, this year’s two was anything but boring, even after Froome’s dominant first high mountain stage.

    Froome increased his lead with a predictably awesome time trial on Stage 11. He lost around one minute when Saxo-Tinkoff and Belkin broke away on a windy flat stage, but gained it right back climbing up Mont Ventoux. He put in another masterful performance in the mountain time trial, though this time his rivals kept their time losses to a minimum. The pressure was high heading into the double ascent of Alpe d’Huez on stage 18, the first of three grueling Alpine stages, but Froome never cracked. Breakaways took stages 18 and 19, though the GC contenders duked it out when they reached the slopes, and stage 20 saw a showdown between all top climbers in the peloton, but despite the best effort of Joaquim Rodriguez, and stacked teams like Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, Froome’s lead barely shrunk. The high uphill tempos across the last few days were too much for Contador, who tumbled down to 4th place by the time all was said and done in the mountains, unable to keep up with Froome, Quintana, and Rodriguez on the steep summits: the relentless assaults by the young Colombian Quintana and seasoned veteran Rodriguez nabbed them spots on the podium beside the man who dominated the Tour almost from start to finish, Chris Froome. The final results looked like this:

    1. Christopher Froome (UK) Sky Procycling | 83:56:40

    2. Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team | +0:04:20

    3. Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha | +0:05:04

    4. Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:06:27

    5. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:07:27

    6. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team| +0:11:42

    7. Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team | +0:12:17

    8. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team | +0:15:26

    9. Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits | +0:15:52

    10. Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp | +0:17:39

    Peter Sagan won the Points Classification, and Nairo Quintana won both the King of the Mountains polka dots and the white jersey of the best young rider.

    Froome Dominates and Young Guns Step Up

    Starting with the obvious, Froome was simply head and shoulders above the competition. The 100th edition of the Tour de France was very exciting to watch, but the fiercest competition was for the other two spots on the podium: Froome’s hold on the top was basically unassailable. He jumped well ahead early in the Pyrenees, solidified his position with stellar time trialing, and held on through the Alps despite vicious assaults from Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. His teammate Richie Porte showed rare talent as well, and together they were able to overpower the competition on the summit finishes. Porte gave everything he had for Froome’s victory, gladly sacrificing his own top 10 aspirations for the cause, and I fully believe he could have been on the podium had he not done so: he went so hard leading Froome up stage 8’s climb that he was exhausted on stage 9, and he chose not to contest stage 17’s time trial so as to save energy to lead Froome through the Alps. The word is that he’ll be given team leadership at one of the other two Grand Tours, and I believe that if he focuses on his position rather than a teammate’s, he’s more than capable of a Grand Tour win.

    QuintanaWhile Froome’s lead was never really in doubt, a number of young riders achieved other immense successes at the 100th Tour de France. The festivities started and ended with Marcel Kittel winning stages. His final tally was four stage wins, and he beat Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in flat sprints more than once. After years of dominance from the Manx Missile, who had never been beaten on the Tour’s final day, Kittel’s emergence at age 25 promises to give cycling fans a real show of speed for the next several years. At age 23, Peter Sagan dominated the points competition in a manner similar to Froome’s dominance of the general classification. And of course, Colombian prodigy Nairo Quintana arrived loudly and clearly, adding a stage win, 2nd overall, the young rider’s jersey, and the King of the Mountains jersey to his resume. What a year he has had, winning the Tour of the Basque Country in style (beating the likes of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte in the final day’s time trial to take the win) and now this. His team gave most of its support to Alejandro Valverde for the first two weeks of the race; with full support, if Quintana can improve his time trial and his attacking strategy, he is more than capable of repeating or even bettering this performance in the future, as he isn’t even close to hitting his prime. Andrew Talansky clawed his way back after a day of suffering in the heat of the Pyrenees early on and found himself in the General Classification Top 10 when the peloton finally rolled over the finish line in Paris, good enough for second in the young rider’s competition. Michal Kwiatkowski finished in the top 10 of six separate stages with varying profiles, and he managed to nab 11th place overall in the Tour. Surely, in a few years, he could be a top 10 favorite here, or a favorite for the points classifications of the Vuelta or Giro, where points aren’t split up to favor the sprinters over other riders. He was one of the most complete riders in the Tour de France, with a rare combination of climbing, sprinting, and time trialing ability.

    There were many other great storylines to follow as well. For all the success Nairo Quintana had, his team struggled in the middle of the Tour. Alejandro Valverde fell out of contention for the podium on stage 13 due to mechanical problems on a windy day, and Rui Costa plummmeted, too, when Movistar sent him back to help Valverde. Undeterred, the team fought tooth and nail for glory over the last several days: Costa won not one but two stages, and Valverde powered his way back into the top 10 overall.

    Much was made of the contenders’ form heading into the first days of the Tour in Corsia. Of the four biggest favorites (Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Valverde), only Froome seemed to be in impeccable form, having won every stage race he attempted this year except for Tirreno-Adriatico, in which he placed second to Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali. Contador, on the other hand was only so-so all year long, prompting questions about his ability to peak in time. Rodriguez had a strong spring and then struggled in the Dauphine. Valverde also had a strong spring and wasn’t great in the Dauphine. As it turned out, starting on form made all the difference for Froome, as it was his first real mountain day that put him virtually out of reach. Contador, meanwhile, never did really round into old form; 4th isn’t anything to sneeze at, but he could never really keep up with the top 3 riders in the race. Joaquim Rodriguez steadily improved as the Tour went on, chipping away at an early deficit to the other contenders and improving his position in the Alps. Valverde will be left wondering what might have been had he not suffered some very bad luck on stage 13; he finished ahead of Contador on both Alpine summit finishes and his stages 8 and 11 had originally given him an impressive chunk of time on Purito and around half a minute on Contador. In any case, Froome has been dominant all year and continued his dominance into the Tour, Rodrigez and Valverde showed good form earlier in the year and were able to maintain a high level and then peak again for the Tour, and Contador never showed his old levels of ability earlier this year and was unable to round into form this July.

    Other riders who impressed? Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, and Jakob Fuglsang. All 28 or younger. Kreuziger managed a 5th place despite working for his teammate Alberto Contador. Bauke Mollema was as high as 2nd as late as stage 14, but he faded a bit as the Tour crested more and more summits—still, he adds a 6th overall to a resume that already includes a 4th overall and the points classification at the Vuelta. Jakob Fuglsang was steady throughout the race despite having very little team support compared to the other riders who finished in the top 8—given the kind of help from Astana that his teammate Vincenzo Nibali gets, Fuglsang could take on the Giro or Vuelta with podium aspirations while the Shark heads to the Tour. With Rodrigez, Valverde, and Contador all on the wrong side of 30, these guys could be hanging around Grand Tour top 10s a lot in years to come.

    On the other hand, it would be an oversight not to mention BMC’s terrible three weeks. Despite their massive team budget, the red and black squad managed no stage wins and didn’t place anyone in even the top 20 overall. For some reason, team management expected Cadel Evans to perform at a high level despite the fact that he entered the race only a month after finishing a grueling Giro. His Tour was a flop–he lost a lot of time on stages 8 and 11 and then faded badly after. Tejay van Garderen fell out of contention early, finishing over twelve minutes behind Froome on stage 8, apparently due to an inability to cope with heat in the Pyrenees. Philippe Gilbert proved again that if your form wasn’t good heading into the Tour, it’s probably not going to magically appear when you get there. His best finish was 5th on stage 3. In the wake of so much team failure, BMC sports director John Lelangue has just quit his job.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and others were forced to abandon after suffering various serious injuries. Peraud broke his collarbone on an early morning recon ride of stage 17’s time trial course when he was still in the top 10 overall: he started the race that day anyway, only crash and fall on the same side, one of the more cringe-worthy moments of the Tour. Hopefully they will all recover quickly.

    And to end positively? Daniel Navarro went from 20th overall and more than twenty-three minutes behind Froome after stage 15 to 8th overall by the time the peloton rode into Paris, thanks to a few breakaway successes and a good ride up the Semnoz. What a climb up the leaderboard! Jens Voigt, age 41, treated us to what may have been the last Tour de France breakaway attack of his career. Peter Sagan gave chanting fans what they wanted time and again with his trademark wheelie-popping, even doing it without hands on occasion. And to showcase a little globalization, a South African, Daryl Impey, wore the yellow jersey from stage 6 to stage 8 before he handed it over to Chris Froome, who was himself, of course, born in Africa.

    The Tour de France may be cycling’s biggest race, but the 2013 season still has yet to present the third Grand Tour, the Vuelta a Espana, as well as the final Monument Classic, the Giro di Lombardia, and the World Championship race, in addition to a number of other major events on the calendar. This Saturday will showcase not one but TWO WorldTour races, with the start of the Tour de Pologne, and the single-day Clasica de San Sebastian. Many of the same riders you saw in the Tour de France will be targetting these races to come, as will some of the sports biggest names who skipped the Tour this year, names like Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, and Fabian Cancellara. To summarize: keep watching! There are a number of big events right around the corner!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Natalie Marchant and Tom Ducat-White.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 19: Where We Stand After Seventeen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 18-21

    Top10ChasersDay 19: The Finale Is Here

    Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.

    Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.

    Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.

    Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.

    Alpe

    Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger

    Watch Out For

    Mikel Nieve

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel

    -Dane Cash

     Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.