Tag: Robert Gesink

Tour de Pologne 2015 Preview

August is upon us, which means it’s time for seven days of racing (and balloons! more on that in the most recent Recon Ride podcast…) in Poland. The Tour de Pologne is an often unpredictable race that has offered plenty of thrills in the past few years of nail-biting GC battles and daring solo attacks for stage wins. The startlist of the 2015 edition will put plenty of talent on display, with a few big names coming from the Tour de France with aspirations of squeezing a few more drops of form out of their legs, and several other big names working up to Vuelta form.

The Route

The 72nd Tour de Pologne opens with a trio of fast-finisher-friendly stages, though scattered hills and technical urban roads could leave the door open for late attackers on all three.

The GC men will need to be on their toes for Stage 4, which includes three climbs in the middle of the day before 30 kilometers of flat run-in to the finish. The uphill tests are categorized 2, 1, and 1, and while a Tour de Pologne Cat. 1 is probably closer to a Tour de France Cat. 2 or even Cat. 3 in terms of difficulty, the three ascents in quick succession will make things interesting regardless.

It’s important to keep the arbitrary nature of climb categorization in mind for Stage 5, where there are officially eight Cat. 1s—still, the stage is 223km in total and after the first 30km there are essentially zero flat kilometers all the way to the finish line. Expect plenty of pretenders to see their GC bids go up in flames on a day like this.

Stage 6 is the queen stage, and it runs along a route the Tour of Poland has taken on for several years running now. The peloton faces a pairing of Cat. 1 climbs (the first about 4.5km and the second 5.5km, both at nearly 6%) a total of four times each, with other smaller lumps thrown in as well. The stage finishes one of those smaller climbs, an uncategorized uphill drag that grades out at around 4.5%. for about 5km.

Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa › Bukowina Tatrzańska (174km) – The peloton is in for a tough day of non-stop climbing in the queen stage of the Tour de Pologne.

The now-familiar parcours has been a crucial GC stage in the past several years, though it often plays a weeding-out role more than anything, with small gaps near the top of the leaderboard but then significant ones outside the first 30 or 40 finishers.

The Tour de Pologne finishes with a 25km individual time trial in Krakow. It’s flat as a pancake and will favor the big engines. Any pure climbers hoping for good GC results will be in for tough days on the bike.

The General Classification Contenders

2014 winner Rafal Majka is skipping the Tour of Poland this year, leaving the race wide open. His countryman Michal Kwiatkowski is certainly one potential successor. If Kwiatkowski were to draw up a stage race route for himself, he probably couldn’t do much better than this: classics style climbs and a long flat time trial to close things out. The Ardennes star and elite chrono rider would be a big favorite to excel on the parcours if his form and motivation were at 100%—however, neither one is clear heading into this race. Kwiatkowski was 2nd here back in 2012, but he’s looked a bit rusty the past few weeks. His goals for his home race are unclear. He’s still a favorite because of his peak ability and perfectly-tailored skillset, but recent showings keep him from being an obvious candidate to boss this race.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre has been runner-up in the past two editions, and his balanced skillset makes him a strong candidate again this year. His team certainly won’t hurt: Beñat Intxausti was 3rd in 2015, and Andrey Amador was 6th, and both riders have flashed great form this year with strong Giro performances (though Amador hasn’t raced since). Izagirre probably gets the team leadership nod due to his past rides at Poland but this is a team that isn’t afraid to support more than one contender should he falter, so watch out for the rest of the squad as well.

Sky’s Sergio Henao has performed well in past editions of the Tour de Pologne, and his strong climbing legs and underrated time trial make him a top favorite in the 2015 running of the race. Henao, like Izagirre, performed well in the Tour of the Basque Country, a race also featuring numerous but not incredibly steep climbs and a critical closing TT. Vasil Kiryienka, good on the hills and excellent in the time trial, is another option, as is Phil Deignan, who took 7th here last year.

Astana’s Fabio Aru is undoubtedly among the biggest-name riders in the race, but form and motivation are completely unknown. This is also not a great event for his skillset. There are no huge climbs for him to open up gaps on his less uphill-inclined rivals, and the flat ITT that closes out the race does not suit hm very well. A GC bid would be a surprise. Well-rounded Dario Cataldo could be a better option for Astana, and Alexey Lutsenko is another alternative.

Robert Gesink was 2nd in the Tour of Poland all the way back in 2007, and he’s coming off a very impressive Tour de France. Gesink is known for his climbing abilities but he’s put in some good riding against the clock this year.

Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin is on uncertain form at this point in the season, but the overall parcours suits his talents. He’s proven himself a strong climber capable of an excellent time trial.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon spends most his time racing in a support role for his team’s stable of impressive climbers, but he’s performed very well in the Tour de Pologne in the past and has the all-round skillset to be in the mix again this year. Diego Ulissi took one of his first big career victories at the Tour of Poland in 2013. He’s put in a few impressive time trial result in his career and could have a chance at the overall if he can turn in a consistent performance all week long.

Ben Hermans of BMC is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for the Tour of Poland. His strong climbing legs often get lost in the shuffle at big-budget BMC, but Hermans has had a great year so far and is coming off a podium performance at the Tour of Austria. In a race with several stages that resemble the hilly spring classics, the Brabantse Pijl winner could find himself well positioned to pick up time on the climbs.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Robert Kiserlovksi, former winner Moreno Moser, Davide Formolo, Przemyslav Niemiec, and Jan Hirt are others who could be in the mix on GC.

The Stagehunters

Marcel Kittel is the marquee sprinting name on the roster but illness had laid him low so far in 2015. Hopefully he’ll get back into shape soon but he hasn’t made any showings of form lately, and until he does, it’s hard to bet on him to succeed on the flat stages in Poland.

There are several fast men on the startlist who could look to step into that marquee sprinter role. Giacomo Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo, Caleb Ewan, and Luka Mezgec are the top names on the list, while Gianni Meersman and JJ Lobato are good bets for bunch sprints that follow slightly hillier days. Matteo Pelucchi, Andrea Guardini, and Tom Van Asbroeck are others who could feature in the high speed finishes.

Watch out for 2014 KOM-winner Maciej Paterski on the hillier days—although the home rider has not been feeling well this past week, he’s had a great year so far and is a definite threat on the intermediate stages. Paterski’s teammate Davide Rebellin, Carlos Betancur, and Alessandro De Marchi are others who could be on the hunt for stage victories on the lumpier days.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Ion Izagirre
Podium: Sergio Henao, Robert Gesink
Other Top Contenders: Beñat Inxtausti, Ilnur Zakarin, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Christophe Riblon, Vasil Kiryienka, Ben Hermans, Michal Kwiatkowski

Listen to the Recon Ride’s Tour de Pologne Pre-race Show for more analysis, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter!

Photo by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland (CC).

August 1, 2015
Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

The Road Ahead

The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

All-rounder Roundup

Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

Stagehunters

Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Daniel Martin

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tim Wang.

October 10, 2013
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2013 Preview

WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 2

The WorldTour’s three most recent one-day winners: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, and now, Robert Gesink. One or two years ago, this set of winners might have seemed totally predictable, but in 2013? It’s as if all of these guys who have been flying under the radar decided to reenter the scene in grand style at the same time. Belkin has had a great week, with Bauke Mollema stealing a stage from the power sprinters at the Vuelta, and Robert Gesink outsprinting Peter Sagan himself in Quebec. As closely as the two are tied together, and as often as they share common riders in their leaderboards, GP Quebec is an important foreshadower for GP Montreal.

That race came down to a very reduced sprint with some marquee names, guys we expected to be right there, like Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, and Rui Costa. Things pretty much went as expected, right up to the point where Robert Gesink (with Arthut Vichot not far behind) passed all those pre-race favorites for the victory. Obviously Gesink is a major talent (he won Montreal in 2010 and was 2nd at Quebec in 2012), but 1. his Palmares have been so lacking lately, and 2. his career resume hasn’t really shown any evidence of a high caliber sprinting ability: with a kilometer to go and Tom Jelte Slagter also with the lead group, I wouldn’t have even picked Gesink to be the highest placed rider from his own team, let alone in the whole race. But while Sagan and Van Avermaet seemed just too exhausted to keep up on the ascent to the line, Gesink powered ahead and took a commanding win. With a career that primarily features results in climber’s races, Gesink seemed like a better pick (albeit an outside one) to get involved in Montreal; if this is the kind of form he’s got right now, and if he’s suddenly realized that he has a heck of a sprint within him, he goes from a worthy-of-a-mention-as-a-past-winner pick to one of the favorites for the second of the Canadian WorldTour dates.

Like its sister race, the Grand Prix Cycliste Montreal has a profile that provides great opportunities for successful attacks on the final lap. Unlike its sister race, Montreal’s big climbs come earlier in the circuit (Côte Camilien-Houde, 1.8 km at 8%, and Côte de la Polytechnque, 0.78 km at 6&), and they’re followed by several kms of gentle descent, and the finish in Montreal, while uphill, is only a few hundreds meters at a few percent grade, rather than a long upward drag: in other words, the race favors attackers who can go from much further out, and it also is friendlier than Quebec was to any sprinters who beat the odds and manage to stay up front. Last year, Lars Petter Nordhaug (then of Team Sky, now of Belkin) made a move from several kilometers out. Rui Costa in 2011 and Robert Gesink in the inaugural edition in 2011 also made moves from several kilometers out.

Gesink’s sprint is what surprised everyone on Friday; we’ve always known he could climb and put in a sustained effort. It’s those skills that won him this race in 2010, and now that we know he’s got quite a kick, he’s got a great shot again here. But Sagan will be out to improve on his placing from Quebec, as will Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, and up-and-comer Arthur Vichot, all of whom finished with the lead group not very far behind Gesink in Quebec. Costa won this thing two years ago and he’s my favorite rider to launch a successful long attack, but he’s also got the kick to outsprint a reduced group. FDJ’s Vichot has had a fine year, runner-up yesterday and French national champion not long ago; he was also in the mix in the finale at Quebec last year and like Costa, he’s got a varied skillset and could either make an early jump or hang with a small group. I like his chances. Sagan and Van Avermaet might find it harder to come across with the lead bunch or to launch a big attack early, as the higher altitude hills in Montreal are likely to break up the race on the final laps, but if they do, the finish suits them more than it did in Quebec. I’ll throw out some familiar names of real fastmen who will also appreciate the finish if they can just make it there at the head of the race: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, Giacomo Nizzolo, Matti Breschel, Matt Goss, and Luka Mezgec are the biggest ones for me. The way Degenkolb has been going, I think it’s a real possibility he is in the final group chasing down the final break, and Breschel was, of course, in the top 10 in Quebec on Friday.

Should the truer sprinters all be dropped, I’d imagine the danger men in the pack pursuing the last breakers will include: Tom-Jelte Slagter of Belkin, Fabian Wegmann of Garmin-Sharp, Jan Bakelants and Tony Gallopin of Radioshack, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Jurgen Roelandts of Lotto Belisol, Bjorn Leukemans of Vacansoleil, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi, and Borut Bozic of Astana, and Francisco Ventoso of Movistar.

But since this is a race with a pretty serious incline in the circuit that will tire out everyone in the field and will surely launch some bids for glory, perhaps the most important question will be: who launches the marquee attack as the race nears its finish? If it’s not one of the riders mentioned above, last year’s winner Lars Petter Nordhaug seems like a great place to start. Recent results have been lacking, though, so the top alternative choices include Pierrick Fedrigo (2nd behind Costa in 2011), Ryder Hesjedal (3rd in 2010), Niki Terpstra (who was off the front until the end on Friday, finishing 6th), Alexander Kolobnev, Simon Geschke, Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Simon Spilak, and Christophe Riblon and Cadel Evans, who led the chasers over the line behind Sagan at GP Quebec. OGE’s stable of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Sebastian Langeveld, and Cameron Meyer and Euskaltel’s squad of climbers, like the Izagirre brothers, are also great bets to animate the race from a distance. Evans and Hesjedal seem the most motivated of the Grand Tour stars here, but any one of Froome, Contador, Porte, Schleck, Talansky and van Garderen might decide to go for a long one as well.

However it goes down, long distance attack or late catch and pass by a bunch, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is going to end with many of the same names from Friday towards the front, riders who combine a strong kick with an aggressive style and a whole lot of endurance.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Jelte-Slagter, John Degenkolb, Arthur Vichot, Matti Breschel, Jurgen Roelandts, Niki Terpstra

-Dane Cash

Photo by O. Taillon.

September 15, 2013