Finally, the Vuelta serves up a real mountain stage. Unfortunately, the first 170 kilometers are featureless, with the Cat. 1 finale the only climb on the menu.
In other words, don’t expect much action until the final half hour of the day. At least the Alto de la Camperona is an interesting climb. Overall, it’s 8.5km at 7.4%, but the difficulty really ratchets up after 3.5km. There’s a 25% section leading into the fourth kilometer of the ascent, followed by a brief flat stretch, and then it’s about 3.5km of mostly double digit gradients all the way to the top, with several sections over 20%.
Stage 8 will be a crucial GC day for sure, though whether the stage win comes down the red jersey hopefuls or the breakers is harder to say. All things considered I’d give the GC men a slight advantage on the first real GC day of the race, but it’ll be close.
If it is the overall contenders leading the way at the finish, there are four names I see as worthy of favorite status: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Esteban Chaves, and Nairo Quintana—in that order.
Froome has a tendency to look for opportunities to get ahead early, and this certainly is one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall out of the GC group somewhere midway up the climb and then storm back to the lead near the top. In peak form, he’s head and shoulders above the competition, and even in Vuelta form he’s dangerous.
So is Alejandro Valverde, who has been winning the early stages of the battle among the top contenders so far in the race. This stage will be a real test of form, but he’s shown plenty up to this point, enough that I favor him over Quintana among the Movistar riders. Quintana has the talent, but he has been quiet thus far in the Vuelta. Esteban Chaves has been the more impressive Colombian through the first week.
Alberto Contador is obviously one to watch as well, but the nasty fall he took in Stage 7 makes him a bit less likely as a favorite in my eyes. Darwin Atapuma, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Leopold König, and Simon Yates are all candidates for success as well, though it’d be a surprise if they can outmuscle the likes of Froome and Valverde.
Among the potential long-range protagonists, José Goncalves, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Rubén Fernández, and Igor Anton all stand out, though it’s anyone’s guess who actually makes it up the road on a stage like this.
With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.
If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.
Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.
Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.
And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.
Stage 8: Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia – 182.5km
The Vuelta’s eighth stage involves far more downhill kilometers than uphill kilometers, but a twice-ascended climb in the latter half of the day will still likely have an impact.
The first 110 kilometers of Stage 8 are almost all downhill as the Vuelta a España descends toward Murcia and the coast. Then comes a flatter stretch of about 30km before the peloton hits the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo, a tough Cat. 3 climb of 4.2 kilometers at a 7.5% average grade. From the top it’s a steep descent down to flatter roads, which wind right back to the foot of the Cresta del Gallo for a second trip up. Then comes another trip back down to the coast. From the point when things even out again at the town of Algezares, it’s just 13km to the finish line.
On the whole, Stage 8 does not involve all that much climbing, but the placement of the climbs makes them hard to overlook. They’ll whittle down the pack significantly, and could also serve as a launching pad for a late attack. If the peloton comes into the finale in a compact group, the sprint will still be among a reduced field.
An in-form Peter Sagan would be a clear-cut favorite for this stage, but since he’s not completely at 100%, it’s a bit of a question mark as to whether he can survive the climbs and fight it out in a sprint. I still see him as the likeliest candidate for success, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dropped on the first or second trip up the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The big GC guns have been extremely conservative in this Vuelta so far, however, and a continued lack of action could help Sagan stay in touch.
John Degenkolb seems a little less likely to make it up and over the final climb, and even if he does he might be too gassed to fight for the win, though he can’t be counted out. Degenkolb is lacking in the form department right now but it would make sense for him to be working his way up to a peak with Worlds approaching, and at his best, Degenkolb would be a top favorite for this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and Caleb Ewan will both have to work very, very hard to hang on over the final climb, though both riders can count on being contenders if they make it to the finish in the lead group.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde shouldn’t have any trouble hanging on, and will likely feature in a potential reduced sprint, as he is among the fastest of the GC men. Teammate JJ Rojas is an excellent alternative, but team politics will be the biggest obstacle for him to overcome: he doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself. He may be faster than Valverde in a sprint, but multiple stages in the Volta a Catalunya showed that Movistar isn’t afraid to ask Rojas to brake and let Valverde cross the line first if necessary.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez would be a great candidate for success with a late attack on the climb if he were showing any interest whatsoever in being active in this Vuelta, but he’s been disappointingly quiet so far in the race. Daniel Moreno may be the stronger stage favorite, as he’s handy in a reduced sprint.
Daniel Martin has the punch to launch a late attack and the fast finish to contend in a sprint. The same is true for Tom Dumoulin, who has looked incredible in the first week of the Vuelta. Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sánchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Carlos Barbero, Jose Goncalvez, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Jasper Stuyven, Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, and Tosh Van Der Sande are others with potential in this finish.
With a finale that isn’t all that well-tailored to the pure sprinters, the breakaway will have its chance at making it all the way on Stage 8. Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Adam Hansen, Cyril Gautier, and Alessandro De Marchi are among the many riders who could thrive from a long-range move.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. John Degenkolb
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.
On the heels of Mark Cavendish’s big sprint victory on Stage 7, the Tour de France heads into a stretch of more GC-oriented days, starting with the 181.5-kilometer Stage 8. It is another day that could come down to a showdown near the finish, but a steep climb to the line will bring a different set of riders to the fore.
The action kicks off in Rennes, Brittany. The first half of the stage is mostly flat, with the first of two categorized climbs finally appearing around the midway point of the action. It’s only a Cat. 4, and not likely to see much of a shakeup. That climb is followed by a descent and then a few gentle ups and downs, which roll all the way to the finish, where things will get interesting.
Stage 8 finishes atop the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, 2 kilometers in length with a challenging average gradient of 6.9%—but the average gradient doesn’t tell the full story. The first kilometer of the ascent has sections in the double digits, and averages just under 10%. After this steep opener, things ease off in the second half of the climb, with the gradient gradually decreasing into the final 500 meters, which angle upward at only 2.4%.
The steep incline of the Mûr-de-Bretagne will make for a thrilling, through hard to predict, Stage 8 finale.
The vicious gradients that open the Mûr-de-Bretagne will keep the traditional sprinters from contending for the stage victory. That will, in turn, likely lead to a less organized chase in the bunch, which could help out any breakaway riders who manage to get up the road. What’s more, the upcoming team time trial will probably have the GC teams inclined to take this stage easy, rather than putting the pressure on all day. There are bonus seconds on offer at the line, and there are plenty of strong puncheurs in this race who will have a great chance at this finish if their teams keep the stage under control, but the early break does have a very real chance at going the distance on this stage—it seems to be about a 50/50 proposition to me. As such, no rider should be seen as “the favorite” for the stage, though there are plenty of riders who will be favored if they are in the lead group inside the final 10 kilometers: the battle for stage honors, whether that battle is being fought within a small group of breakers or the larger bunch, will likely come down to the final climb, which will suit riders that have some combination of strong climbing legs and a fast finish.
If the pack is able to reel in the early move, Joaquim Rodríguez, who won on the Mur de Huy a few days ago, will like the look of this one. He has flashed strong form in this Tour, and he has both the climbing prowess to launch a move early on this climb, and the finishing kick to outsprint a small group around him if he nears the finish line with company. Having the also explosive Giampaolo Caruso gives Katusha options.
At his best, Alejandro Valverde would love this profile, but form has been a question mark for Valverde so far in this Tour de France. On the Mur de Huy, where he won earlier this season in La Flèche Wallonne, he was unable to muster even a Top 10. This is another opportunity for him to use a skillset tailormade for this sort of finale, but his inability to make much an impact on this Tour so far can’t be ignored on a stage where he’d otherwise probably rank as my top favorite. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana will be a rider to watch as well with this gradient—the diminutive Colombian doesn’t have Valverde’s top speed but few riders are as dangerous on gradients in the double digits. With a likelihood of gaps in this finale, Quintana will be locked in and should be in the mix at the front of the pack.
Dan Martin showed great form on Stage 3 on his way to 4th place, a result that would have been better if he hadn’t been way behind the head of the race before starting his charge through the ranks of riders struggling to make it to the top of the Mur. The extreme gradients on the lower slopes of that climb may have hindered Martin, who is very explosive but has never favored the double-digit slopes. The Mûr-de-Bretagne will be another great opportunity for him if this does come down to a group finish, especially with more space between the 10% gradient and the finish line in which Martin can make up ground he loses to the more effective climbers.
Chris Froome doesn’t have the Ardennes track record of Purito, Valverde, or Martin, but he’s an elite climber with an elite team around him that is fully dedicated to putting him into the perfect position for the uphill finishes. He was very strong on the Mur de Huy, and if this comes down to the GC men, I’d bet he’ll be right up there again here on Stage 8, with bonus seconds on the line. GC rival Vincenzo Nibali was not all that far behind, rolling across the line in 7th on Stage 3. Already down more than a minute on Froome, Nibali could try to get clear on the climb to earn a few seconds back on GC.
Peter Sagan won’t be able to match the GC favorites on the high gradients, but could hang on for the easier final kilometer if no one is too aggressive early on. The main factor playing against Sagan is the fact that the team may have him on domestique duty to help Alberto Contador, who is also a danger with this sort of gradient so close to the line.
A kilometer at over 9% might just be too much to ask of John Degenkolb, but he will have a shot at stage honors here if the pack can reel in the early breakaway. Rui Costa has been quiet so far in this Tour but should like this finish, as should another fast-finishing fringe GC contender, Bauke Mollema. Warren Barguil, a more-explosive-than-many-realize Tejay van Garderen, Robert Gesink, AG2R’s Romain Bardet and a surprising Alexis Vuillermoz, and Rigoberto Urán are others who could thrive in this finale if things come together before the line.
Tony Gallopin has the versatility to challenge for victory here in a variety of scenarios. He’s deadly in a long-range move, and capable in a reduced sprint as well. With the ability to weigh his options and determine his strategy out on the road, Gallopin has a great chance here. Teammate Tim Wellens is another rider to watch—he’s a smart attacker who can be very dangerous in a breakaway. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Arredondo, and Simon Yates are just a few of the other riders who can threaten for stage success either from the breakaway or from the bunch.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
After Diego Ulissi’s second victory for Lampre-Merida in three days, the peloton will take on the first Cat. 1 climb of the Giro d’Italia in Stage 8.
The 186km journey from Fiuggi to Campitello Matese involves a whole lot of up-and-down, though only two of the climbs are categorized. From the start there are a few rollers leading into the Cat. 2 Forca d’Acero, which is extremely long for an ascent of that rating: 26km long and with a 5% gradient, it will most certainly wear down even the most adept climbers. From there the road takes a generally downward path, interrupted by a few upward stretches of not-insignificant length, toward the town of Isernia. Then it’s another mid-size uncategorized climb before the challenging final test to Campitello Matese. 13km at 6.9%, it’s not an awful road to the top but it won’t be comfortable for anyone after so many climbs on the day.
The profile should be pretty enticing for the breakaway, what with the constant up-and-down, and it will be very difficult for the pack to keep the break on a tight leash. Then again, the GC riders will almost certainly want to put the pressure on each other to try to open up the leaderboard at the top a bit, which could make it hard for those up the road to stay out front. What’s more, the upcoming Stage 9 looks even more perfect for the breakaway, and it offers an extra KOM opportunity, so those in pursuit of the blue jersey may be content to wait. It seems like a 50-50 proposition as to whether this one goes to the bunch or a morning breakaway.
Among the GC contenders in the bunch, Fabio Aru should be the favorite for success here. He has the most incentive to get separation on these mountain stages given his time trial skills, which are weaker than those of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte. He’s also looked sharp so far, and he has a powerful team around him. Mikel Landa’s GC position makes for a great asset to the team—Astana could send him up the road in pursuit of the stage win as well.
Alberto Contador also looks strong, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll cope with the challenges of the day. He looked okay on Stage 7 but this is a bigger test. With an almost guaranteed breakaway to come followed by a rest day and then a sprinters’ stage, he may try to take this easy. Teammate Roman Kreuziger is also high up on GC, and could be given a green light to go stagehunting here if he’s feeling good.
Richie Porte is the other obvious candidate. He’s climbed so well this early in this season that he’s got to be among the top favorites again here. The climbing on the day suits him quite well. Expect Porte to be aggressive trying to put his stamp on the race.
Esteban Chaves may get some leeway if he goes on the attack, and he’s looked good, if not fantastic, so far in the race. The same goes for Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma; both are within 2 minutes on GC and strong enough climbers that it’s hard to tell whether the bunch would let them get clear or not, but if they do they’ll be dangerous—Atapuma in particular has looked great on the climbs this year.
Giovanni Visconti is amazingly within 1 minute of the Giro d’Italia race lead. He shouldn’t be a threat to the pink jersey in Milan, so despite his high position at the moment, he may be given the opportunity to go from afar—if he does, watch out, as he looks quite strong right now.
Stefano Pirazzi is no GC threat at all and he’s been aggressive, if not particularly successful, so far in this race. There are mountain points on offer here and a chance for Pirazzi to make his mark—I do wonder, though, whether he may want to keep his powder for the perfect breakaway day that awaits on Sunday instead, especially if other purer climbers manage to get into the Stage 8 early move. Edoardo Zardini and Francesco Bongiorno are other options for Bardiani-CSF. Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec looks okay so far in the race but he’s down on GC after a poor opening TTT and then getting caught out in the crash-filled Stage 2 finale. He could try to go for one here. Ryder Hesjedal might as well; alternatively his teammate Tom Danielson has been very strong in the breakaways all year, winning the KOM jersey at the Volta a Catalunya, and this could be a nice opportunity for him.
Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Igor Anton, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, and Beñat Intxausti are others on the very long list of potential long-range victory candidates.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Fabio Aru | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Darwin Atapuma
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 8 for the preview of the next stage.
After a bumpy Stage 7 won by Alessandro Di Marchi, and with Sunday’s mountain stage looming, the peloton will get to enjoy a day of flat roads on Stage 8. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Baeza to Albacete, and the final 60 kilometers are more or less downhill, though there is a short uphill section of less than a kilometer right around the 3-km-to-go mark. There are a few roundabouts and some hard corners, but then the final 900 meters run straight to the line. Overall, Stage 8 is the longest stage in this Vuelta at 207 kilometers, but without many uphill challenges, the length of the route shouldn’t alter the outcome too drastically.
A sprint finish seems more than likely on the profile, setting up another probable showdown between FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. There are reasons to like both for stage honors. Degenkolb took the most recent head-to-head battle on Stage 5, and even had Bouhanni made better positioning choices in the finale (he ended up boxed out on the barriers behind and to the outside of Degenkolb), it’s not totally a given that he would have passed the German anyway. Degenkolb is very fast right now, and a longer day than usual will further favor the Paris-Roubaix runner-up as well. Still, Bouhanni’s typically top-notch ability to fight for position will help as the peloton passes through a few late roundabouts. Moreover, Degenkolb hit the deck on Stage 7, and it’s unclear how he’ll feel the day after. If both riders are at their best, this should be very close, (and the duo is significantly faster than any of their other rivals), but Bouhanni has a slight edge as the favorite for Stage 8 with uncertainty around Degenkolb’s condition.
Familiar names make the list of other potential contenders. Roberto Ferrari, who has not made it to many sprint finishes yet in this race, should jump at this opportunity to contest a bunch gallop on a very flat stage. He is still quite fast. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland was 3rd behind Degenkolb and Bouhanni on Stage 5, showing his potential. Another good result could be in the cards here. The versatile Michael Matthews wants to do well on the pure sprint stages as well as the hilly ones, and although he hasn’t landed the kinds of results he’s hoped for on the flat days in this Vuelta a España just yet, he does have an impressive turn of speed. If he can nail down the timing and the positioning, he could be in the mix on Stage 8. Astana’s Andrea Guardini, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, and Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere have not featured in the sprint finishes in this race as often as they would have hoped so far, but this parcours should put them in position to challenge for stage honors. Tom Boonen, Jasper Stuyven, Vicente Reynes, Yauheni Hutarovich, Oscar Gatto (or Peter Sagan, should he decide to go for it), Gerald Ciolek, and Francesco Lasca are others who could get involved in the probable bunch gallop to the line.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Roberto Ferrari
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned for more. Also, be sure to come back soon for the preview of the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, and in the meantime, check out VeloHuman’s recent interviews with two likely protagonists of that race, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing and Ben Swift of Team Sky.
