Stage 9: Benevento › San Giorgio del Sannio – 224km
Beñat Intxausti was the breakaway victor on an unpredictable Giro Stage 8, and the Stage 9 that follows will be even more unpredictable, and probably even more breakaway-friendly.
The riders will set out from Benevento and take on a few small ups and downs before coming to a brutal pairing of climbs. First they’ll hit the slopes of the overlong Monte Termino, a 20km Cat. 2 with a 4.2% average gradient. After the descent, the riders will immediately begin the Cat. 1 Colle Molella, 9.5km at an average gradient of 6.3%, but with a long steep stretch near the KOM marker—and after a brief flat section following the mountains points, the road continues to climb for a few more kilometers!
Then comes another descent and a long stretch of ups and downs before the third and final categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Passo Serra, only 3.6km long but with an 8% average gradient. It will be a great launching pad for the aggressors, as it’s followed by a steep descent and then a short climb that leads into the mostly flat final 3km.
With climbs throughout, three major KOM opportunities, and a finish that probably won’t be all that enticing for the GC favorites, this is stage screams breakaway. Even if Astana or Tinkoff-Saxo or a team that has missed the break decide to set a high tempo late in the day, it will be extremely difficult to control the race on this profile. Stage 9 looks great for a punchy, aggressive rider, most likely from a long-range move, although the same type of rider would be favored if the peloton mops up the early breakaway as well. Regardless, as with any breakaway-friendly stage, this one will be very hard to predict.
Stefano Pirazzi was not in the breakaway on Stage 7 or Stage 8. It’s hard to imagine he won’t try to be in the early move here. He’s not the best climber in the race, and he isn’t the punchiest finisher, but he’s terrific on long, hilly days, and he finds an extra gear when he’s up the road. With a Giro KOM jersey and a Giro stage win in his palmarès, he knows how to ride on this kind of parcours, and if he can get into the breakaway, he will be extremely hard to beat.
Diego Ulissi already has a stage win in the race, and he’ll be looking for another here. He won’t be afraid to get into the breakaway, and if he’s at the lead group at the finish, he’ll be among the top favorites no matter who he’s with.
Philippe Gilbert doesn’t have any stage wins yet, but he has similar abilities on the short, steep climbs, and he’s been aggressive trying to get up the road so far in this race. A dropped chain ruined his chances on Stage 7, so he’ll have his eyes open for another chance on this profile that suits his punchy skillset. Simon Gerrans, 3rd on Stage 7, made his bones earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, and although he may be better known for his killer instinct in reduced bunch sprints these days, he has the added dimension of being capable of winning from a far on a stage like this. Teammate Simon Clarke has already spent plenty of time in the breaks and will like the profile too.
Sylvain Chavanel, Edoardo Zardini, Adam Hansen, Beñat Intxausti, Simon Geschke, Carlos Betancur, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Darwin Atapuma, Ryder Hesjedal, and Esteban Chaves (now way behind on GC) are other potential protagonists who could get the chance to go from afar.
Giovanni Visconti is a special case deserving of his own paragraph. From the profile alone I might name him the top favorite for Stage 9, but when weighing his chances one must add a rather rare variable to the equation: he’s only 1:16 down on GC. It’s hard to tell whether the GC favorites will let him get up the road. Even if he misses the early break he’ll still have a chance from the pack, as he combines excellent climbing legs with a nice kick, but it’s a major question mark whether he’ll be given any room on this stage.
Of the riders less likely to be given any room to roam, in-form Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa are obvious choices with a steep late climb, as is Alberto Contador. Rigoberto Urán looks stronger than he did earlier on in the race and he sports a strong sprint if it comes to that. Damiano Caruso is also quick to the line.
And of course, keep an eye out for versatile fast-finishers Fabio Felline, Juan José Lobato, and Michael Matthews—all three could have a chance on Stage 9 depending on the way things play out.
VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites
1. Stefano Pirazzi | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Philippe Gilbert
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 9 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
-Dane Cash