Tag: Thibaut Pinot

Tour de France 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin – 167km

The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.

The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.

That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.

The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.

With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.

The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.

Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.

Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.

Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.

Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.

Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.

Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Thibaut Pinot

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2015
Tour de Suisse 2015 Preview

As the Dauphiné nears its conclusion, a sizeable contingent of cycling’s top stars who aren’t racing in France have made a trip to Switzerland. Nine days in total with flats, hills, mountains, a short ITT, and a long one, the 2015 edition of the Tour de Suisse has something for everyone.

The Route

The race opens with a 5.1km ITT that will serve to put a rider into an early leader’s jersey, but will likely not have that much of an effect on the General Classification as it is so short (and flat). The day that follows is more challenging than you might expect for such an early stage in a nine-day race: Stage 2 closes out with plenty of up and down. The riders will take on the Cat. 1 Michaelskreuz climb, zoom back down the other side, circle back to the foot of the climb to do it one more time, and then zoom down to the finish line.

Stages 3 and 4 have a few bumps (including the extremely challenging Gotthardpass at the beginning of Stage 3) but less challenging finishes will likely make these days more for the stagehunters than the GC favorites.

Stage 5 will be the most difficult mountain test for the overall contenders. It’s a long day of racing, 237.3 kilometers, punctuated by two HC-rated climbs, one near the midpoint of the stage, the other making for the stage finale.

Stage 5: Unterterzen › Sölden (237.3km) – The fifth stage of the Tour de Suisse will give the pure climbers every opportunity to build an advantage before the long time trial at the end of the race.

This is not a stage for the faint of heart, and not one likely to be forgiving to anyone at a loss for form.

Hilly but not overly challenging Stages 6 and 7 look like they will favor the sprinters or puncheurs. Stage 8 will put the riders to the test with a very bumpy profile that, despite a lack of any truly vicious climbs, should offer opportunities for aggressors to try to stir up the pot.

The Tour de Suisse finishes with a 38.4km time trial in Bern. The profile of Stage 9’s ITT features an irregular climb and similarly uneven descent right in the middle of the route, but it’s not a hill climb time trial by any means, and should favor the big engines in the peloton.

The General Classification Contenders

Rui Costa has won this race three years running, but he won’t be taking the victory this year, having eschewed the Swiss race for the Dauphiné. In his absence, this is a wide open race, one of the most open stage races of the year. There are plenty of big talents on the startlist but none stand out as five-star favorites.

Sky will bring a strong contingent of starters to Switzerland, among them, Geraint Thomas and Sergio Henao. Thomas has had a great year so far and the time trial-heavy route suits him well, though the very steep climb that closes out Stage 5 will challenge him. Henao is a balanced stage racer who can climb at a very high level and time trial surprisingly well too. Personally I see Henao as better suited to this race but recent talk about the Sky plan for this race would suggest that they aren’t coming to the Suisse with Henao as their sole leader, and that does raise a few questions about his chances. Whoever leads Sky will want every ounce of support possible in what is likely to be a close race.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is probably the best climber on the startlist, and he’s had a strong year so far. He’s already won a tough mountain stage in Switzerland this year, taking the fifth stage of the Tour de Romandie, and he’ll be among the top favorites to win Stage 5 of this race—the long time trial is the question for Pinot. He showed flashes of improved TT ability last year though, and if he can replicate that here, in advance of his season’s main goal, the Tour de France, he’ll be hard to beat.

Jakob Fuglsang is consistently among the best riders in the one-week stage races he takes on, but usually he has to ride in support of Vincenzo Nibali. Without Nibali here, Fuglsang should be up there fighting for the win himself. This balanced race will require the sort of Grand Tour versatility that Fuglsang has in spades, and he has the always powerful Astana team to back him up too.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka is in a very similar situation. He’ll be at the Tour as a lieutenant for Alberto Contador, but in the Tour de Suisse he has an opportunity to race all for himself. His elite climbing skills will come in handy on Stage 5, though he’d probably prefer more real mountain stages in this race; still he’s a good time trialist with a chance at the overall victory if he can ride well against the clock.

Michal Kwiatkowski will love the first and last stage of this race, where he’ll be among the favorites for TT victories. For him, the big challenge of pulling of a Tour de Suisse GC result will be the very steep finishing climb of Stage 5. The sort of ascent doesn’t suit him particularly well. He’ll need all the help he can get from his team, and he’ll need to put in top-notch TT performances to have a shot at the overall in this race.

Simon Spilak has done very well in Switzerland in the past, with a Top 10 here and a GC win (and three stage wins) in Romandie. He’s an elite one-week racer who can climb and TT with the best. He tends to falter in the Grand Tours, however, and he’ll need to come prepared to race for the full nine days if he wants a shot at victory. If he can put it all together, and I think he will, he should be in the mix. Katusha has Daniel Moreno as a strong alternative.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck should still have some form in the tank after the Giro d’Italia, and he looked great in Romandie earlier this season. The very long nature of the race should suit the Grand Tour veteran. Tom Dumoulin put in a good ride last year, and he is always improving as a climber—if he can limit his losses on Stage 5 he’ll have a shot at the GC title. His Giant-Alpecin teammate Warren Barguil will look to do the opposite: shine in the mountains and limit his losses against the clock. Robert Gesink should be in the mix after a decent ride to California. He looks to be working his way back into good form. Domenico Pozzovivo, Ion Izagirre, Bob Jungels, Julian Arredondo, Esteban Chaves, and the Cannondale-Garmin duo of Joe Dombrowski and Tom Danielson are others with a chance in the General Classification at the Tour de Suisse.

The Stagehunters

The caliber of quick men making the trip to Switzerland is impressive. Mark Cavendish is the class of the pure sprinters in attendance, and should be tops in terms of pure speed on the startlist. There are several bumpier days that could see the more versatile types in control, however, and that’s where four-time Tour de Suisse Points Classification winner Peter Sagan will come in. He’s a machine in this race, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to add to his impressive career win total here (he has nine victories so far in the TdS). In fact, watch out for him from the very start of the race—the short ITT opener is a perfect opportunity for him.

Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and JJ Rojas are just a few of the other top-notch quick men with a bit of versatility in attendance. This race, which has no shortage of stagehunter-friendly intermediate days, should have no shortage of elite contenders for victories on those stages.

Philippe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Albasini, Jan Bakelants, and Zdenek Stybar are among the many aggressive types who could thrive on the hillier stages.

The double helping of ITTs has drawn plenty of chrono talents as well: Adriano Malori and Fabian Cancellara should enjoy opportunities to face off against some of the aforementioned potential GC riders (Kwiatkowski and Dumoulin in particular) for time trial wins.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Sergio Henao
Podium: Thibaut Pinot, Jakob Fuglsang
Other Top Contenders: Rafal Majka, Michal Kwiatkowski, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Ion Izagirre, Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for commentary and analysis during the race, and check out the Recon Ride’s latest episode for more Tour de Suisse coverage!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Harald Schnitzler (CC).

June 12, 2015
Tour de France 2014 Post-race Impressions: Nibali Dominant, Others Ascendant

Now that the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books, there’s time to draw a few conclusions about what we’ve seen. Three weeks of racing offer enough storylines and takeaways for weeks of analysis, but I’ve distilled my impressions down to a select few major observations.

A Worthy Winner

Vincenzo Nibali did not want this race to be remembered as the Tour de France without Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, and the results he delivered in pursuit of a truly dominant performance were quite impressive. With four stage wins and several other Top 5s, a strong challenge for the polka dot jersey, and a gap of nearly eight minutes to his closest challenger, Nibali was in another universe compared to the competition in the race. It would have been nice to have seen him battling Froome and Contador, and as things stand right now, Froome is still the oddsmakers’ favorite for the 2015 Tour, but Nibali did all the right things to ensure his place in the history books as a worthy maillot jaune.

We always knew that Nibali was a strong climber (one does not win the Vuelta and Giro without elite climbing ability) but he was up for it on every type of uphill challenge on the menu in this Tour, and avoided even one bad day. What’s more, he has developed into a top-notch time trialist, landing 4th in the Stage 20 chrono. And perhaps most importantly for this race, he displayed the sort of bike handling skills and racing savvy necessary to survive three weeks of riding on often rain-soaked and occasionally cobbled roads. There is a lot to be said for his ability to emerge unscathed from a Tour that dashed the hopes of so many other riders.

A Lengthy Injury Report

Speaking of those other riders: as much as Nibali did everything in his power to make this race his own, any rational analysis of this Tour has to include mention of the health issues that plagued so many riders and generated so many headlines. Alberto Contador was on fire this year and now he may not race again in 2014, and Chris Froome looked to be rounding back into shape before his multiple fractures took him out of the Tour. It would have undoubtedly been a very different Tour de France had they been in the mix in the mountains. They weren’t the only riders who suffered race-ending health problems. Mark Cavendish left the Tour on its very first day. Rui Costa was running well in the beginning of the race, but pneumonia hampered him as the Tour went on and ultimately he abandoned his campaign for a Top 10 overall. Andrew Talansky crashed and crashed again early on in the race and was just too banged up to continue riding at the level necessary to hang with the peloton. Andy Schleck suffered a serious knee injury which has put his next several months in doubt.

Others made it to the Champs-Élysées but were noticeably lessened by ailments along the way. Among the big names in this camp were John Degenkolb, whose first several days were hampered by injury, Arnaud Demare, who battled sickness, and Richie Porte, whose tumble out of the GC Top 10 may have been partially due to a chest infection. In short, a number of big names struggled with health issues in this Tour de France. Those riders who did survive and thrive in the race are worth noting, but it’s important to view all of their successes in perspective.

New Generation of Sprinters Here to Stay

With four victories, Marcel Kittel was clearly the best “pure sprinter” in the race. We’ll never know how Mark Cavendish might have fared against the younger Kittel through three weeks of racing, but Kittel continues to assert himself as a dominant force in the top tier of fast men. This is his second straight year of four wins, but remember, he’s only 26! Alexander Kristoff, with a pair of stage wins, is planting his flag as a sprinting force as well, especially in the bunch gallops that follow long and/or rainy days. Peter Sagan is known as the rider to beat on the hilly days that end in reduced sprints, but Kristoff has carved out a niche of his own: he’s not as strong a climber as Sagan, but even flatter stages, if lengthy enough (and especially when wet) can wear out the other fast men, and it is in those scenarios that Alexander Kristoff shines brightest. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel were both in the mix on Stage 15, but Kristoff won anyway, much as he won the sprint finale of this year’s Milano-Sanremo despite the presence of Mark Cavendish.

Peter Sagan may not have won a stage in this year’s Tour, but the nine Top 5 stage finishes that put him into the green jersey are undeniably impressive. It seems likely that with a stronger team, he’ll be able to focus more on winning and less on chasing down late moves; the question of “Where will Sagan land?” will be the biggest story of transfer season.

Several other young non-winners were, nonetheless, strong performers on a number of stages as well. 22-year-old Bryan Coquard was always in the mix in the sprints, and 22-year-old Arnaud Demare and 25-year-old John Degenkolb delivered some nice results despite nagging ailments.

A French Resurgence

The 2014 Tour de France was a wonderful return to prominence for French cycling. Jean-Christophe Peraud, who has landed several impressive results in stage races in his career, put in a next-level performance to reach 2nd overall in cycling’s biggest event. He got stronger as the Tour went on, and benefitted from a top-notch team that also included 6th place finisher Romain Bardet, just 23 years old. A climbing specialist with serious talent and a high ceiling, Bardet now has a Top 10 in the Tour and in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his 2014 resume (to go with several other nice results), and he should continue to develop as an uphill force.

Thibaut Pinot finally took that step up that many expected after his 10th overall and stage victory in the 2012 Tour; a podium position in the Tour de France (ahead of Grand Tour winner Alejandro Valverde) will do wonders for his confidence. He seems to have gotten over his fear of descending, which was a major drawback to his game, but he developed into a much more well-rounded rider in other ways too, now seemingly capable of putting in a strong time trial and several straight good days in the mountains. He should only get stronger over the next few years.

The GC riders weren’t the whole story for the French revival either. Consummate breakaway specialist Blel Kadri took a very long stage win in Gerardmer, and versatile Tony Gallopin spent time in the yellow jersey and later escaped Peter Sagan and a chasing pack to win Stage 11. He took an impressive victory in San Sebastian last year and continues to prove his wide array of talents that include climbing, soloing, and sprinting.

Deserving Team Leaders

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen recovered from a prior injury to race in this Tour, and then recovered from an early crash and a single bad day in the Pyrenees to land 5th on GC when all was said and done. 2013 was a rough year for the young American, who, despite winning both the Tour of California and the USA Pro Challenge, looked to have taken a step back as a Grand Tour rider in that year’s edition of La Grand Boucle. With Cadel Evans showing signs of slowing down, however, BMC backed van Garderen completely in this year’s Tour, and by consistently hanging with with the GC Top 10 types and then delivering a very strong time trial performance in the penultimate stage, van Garderen proved that he is back on track as a GC contender. He’s still just 25.

Not far behind van Garderen on the GC leaderboard was Leopold Konig. Konig took a stage and 9th overall in the 2013 Vuelta, but 2014 hadn’t been going smoothly for the young Czech climber, who was slated for his first run at being a team leader in the Tour de France. A knee injury hampered his early season campaign and left him unable to prepare as well as he would have liked for this race. He overcame those obstacles and looked strong in the second and third week of the Tour, climbing to 9th on GC before the time trial on Stage 20. He proceeded to deliver the chrono of his life and jumped two more placings to finish 7th overall. It shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as he has been delivering impressive time trial results somewhat under the radar over the last two years, but few expected him to land 5th in the ITT. If he can continue to show that sort of abiltiy against the clock, he will be a rider to watch in Grand Tours for years to come.

Looking Ahead

The last day of the Tour de France is not the last day of the cycling season! The Clasica de San Sebastian, a one-day race with a hilly profile designed to thrill, is less than a week away, with the Tour de Pologne and Eneco Tour soon after. Stay tuned for more previews, analysis, and rider interviews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Adam Bowie, Sum_of_Marc, and Photigule.

July 28, 2014