VeloHuman

Tag: Tony Martin

  • Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

    Miaofeng

    The Road Ahead

    The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

    The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

    All-rounder Roundup

    Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

    There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

    World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

    A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

    Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

    Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

    Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

    Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

    This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

    Stagehunters

    Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

    Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

    With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Daniel Martin

    Podium

    Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

    Top 10

    Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Tim Wang.

  • UCI World Championship Individual Time Trial 2013 Preview

    TonyMartin

    A World-class Race of Truth

    After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.

    WorldsITTprofile

    It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.

    Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.

    Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.

    Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.

    It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.

    Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Tony Martin

    Podium

    Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara

    Top 10

    Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Day 11: Where We Stand After Ten Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 11-13

    EBH

    Day 11: Turning Back the Clock

    The past few days have proven decisive for a number of outside GC contenders in the Vuelta. Not long after my last update, Dan Martin withdrew with a concussion. In Stage 8, Bauke Mollema lost enough time to put himself out of the conversation, and Roman Kreuziger apparently started to have a heart problem that would, over the coming stages, drop him out of the conversation as well.

    “Up-and-comer” Leopold Konig did, in fact, take Stage 8 with a well-timed, well-executed attack. The other top names were close behind. Moreno continued to look strong on a parcours that appeared to be designed perfectly for him and his teammate Joaquim Rodriguez on stage 9. And Stage 10? Perhaps it’s time to finally start believing that Chris Horner is the real deal. I used the vague terms “serious GC showdown” and “riders on elite form” to describe how Stage 10 would play out, but I’ll admit I wasn’t really thinking of the Radioshack veteran: all along I’ve been expecting him to fade, but he hasn’t yet, and he managed to drop everyone on the slopes of Alto Hazallanas on his way to the top. Vincenzo Nibali, however, was not all that far behind and a fair bit ahead of the other contenders, and unfortunately for Horner, a time trial looms. The American took the red jersey back from Dani Moreno, but I fear he won’t wear it long.

    Stage 11: Tarazona | 38.8km | Individual Time Trial

    VS11

    It’s an individual time trial with a Cat. 3 climb right at the heart of it, but it’s not so steep as to make me believe that anyone other than Tony Martin is going to win it. He’s the man to beat in all but the most difficult climber-oriented time trials, and betting against him on flatter days and even pseudo-hilly chronos has proven a dangerous decision so far this year. If he can win an ITT in which Nairo Quintana finished ahead of Richie Porte (Stage 6 at the Tour of the Basque Country), he can probably win this. Competition from fellow time trialing superstar Fabian Cancellara will be fierce, and the hill in the middle will help the classics specialist and strong descender, but Spartacus has been doing some hard racing in support of his team leader lately, and will continue to do so. Moreoever, he seems to be focusing more on his mass-start skills than his soloing right now. Like Tony Martin, there are plenty of other time trialing specialists in attendance who have come to the Vuelta with this one stage in mind (though it’s hard to see anyone beating Martin, the odds-on favorite), including Lieuwe Westra, who loves a time trial with a climb or two, Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, and Luis Leon Sanchez. Edvald Boasson Hagen is more than just a TT specialist, but he’s capable of a high placing. I don’t include Tanel Kangert with those other names because I see him as a pseudo-GC name at the moment (he’s 14th overall) and after being a faithful domestique for Nibali all through the Giro, perhaps Astana will give him the green light to do his best in the Vuelta: he seems to have sacrificed some of his time trialing ability for climbing skills this year, but with this profile, things should balance out. If Astana gives him the go-ahead to ride hard for himself, I see him finishing between 2nd and 5th. Of the marquee names for GC, Nibali stands out head and shoulders above the rest. He’s the only rider in the top 10 with an actual chance to win this time trial, as he has become an elite time trialist at this point in his career, which he showed with commanding performances in the Giro. Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez (vastly improved in this discipline) will hope to limit their losses to within a minute of Astana’s leader; the Cat. 3 climb should help with that. Roche and Moreno aren’t great against the clock, but they aren’t terrible, and hanging around relatively close to their current positions is a reasonable expectation, though Roche will likely lose his spot on the virtual podium. I expect Pinot, Majka, Pozzovivo, and, yes, Chris Horner to struggle. None of them has the resume to produce anything other than expectations of large time losses here, though, of course, Chris Horner has been blowing up expectations daily. Samuel Sanchez will be excited about the opportunity to gain a chunk of time on his chase for whatever position he is targeting now that he’s no longer a contender for the red jersey; he has (or at least, had) a strong time trial when he is on form.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Tanel Kangert

    Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 164.2km | Flat

    VS12

    After putting up with a few grueling days of climbing and time trialing, the sprinters finally get another day in the (hot Spanish) sun. There is a Category 3 climb to be summitted with more than 70 kilometers to go, but other than that, there isn’t much to keep the fast men from the line. It’s a day for the true sprinters, who must feel cheated after Stybar and Gilbert got the jump on them on the pan-flat Stage 7. Look to some familiar names to stake their claim today, though the dearth of marquee sprint team leaders means that a big bunch of teams have multiple options, and it’s been hard to nail down whom they are favoring in advance. If Orica-GreenEdge is still committed to giving him opportunities, this would be a great day for Leigh Howard, but it’s unclear whether they are just going 100% for Matthews now. It appears that Argos-Shimano favors Janse van Rensburg on the flatter days. Maybe. Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam are there, too. Belkin has both Graeme Brown and Robert Wagner, who won the bunch sprint for 3rd on Stage 7. FDJ has Anthony Roux and Geoffrey Soupe. Vacansoleil has been one of the hardest to predict: depsite the presence of ostensibly highly talented sprinter Barry Markus, it has been the immensely mediocre Juan Antonio Flecha who has featured so frequently in the bunch sprints. No longer will Markus be a concern, as he did not finish Stage 10, but the team has sometimes thrown Grega Bole into the mix as well. Andrew Fenn got DQed, ending the sprinting leadership debate at OPQS, at least, though this stage might not be selective enough for Gianni Meersman.

    Sky, Garmin, Lampre, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Cofidis seem to have settled on their sprinters in, respectively: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Maximiliano Richeze, Michael Morkov, and Adrien Petit. I also think that these are some of the strongest sprinting names in the race right now. Richeze has been 2nd twice, and Lampre wants something to show for this Grand Tour. Former track star Michael Morkov will appreciate the uber flat run into the finish on Stage 12. Petit has been improving. Farrar is still searching for that big win, but he hasn’t been too far off the mark.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Maximiliano Richeze | 2. Adrien Petit | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Morkov

    Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 169km | Medium Mountains

    VS13

    An early Cat. 3 and then a sudden, sheer Cat. 1 will challenge those riders who are likely to have done well on the previous stage. The four and a half kilometer climb at 10.6% could cause serious splits, benefitting the breakaway as the heavier riders try to catch back up to those who get over the hump first, but the top of the Cat. 1 is still some 40 kilometers from the finishing town of Castelldefels, and the road is pretty much downhill or flat all the way home, leaving plenty of time for those who have fallen off to play catchup. As the sprinters’ opportunities are very limited now, they’ll work hard to ensure that this thing ends in a sprint. It likely will, though the group that comes to the line might be reduced and fatigued. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Michael Matthews to pick up a second stage win, or for Meersman or Boasson Hagen to pick up their first this Vuelta. With higher mountains looming, competition will be fierce, and the likes of Richeze, Petit, Farrar, and other bigger fast men will love the finish if they can just get there in one piece.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Michael Matthews | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Gianni Meersman

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Tom Ducat-White.