Tour de France 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Épernay › Nancy – 234.5 km

With four days for the sprinters (including a Stage 6 that went to Andre Greipel) already on the books in the 2014 Tour de France, one could be forgiven for taking a cursory look at the Stage 7 profile and assuming that it’s certain to lead to another bunch sprint showdown. After all, a pair of Cat. 4 climbs are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. However, both of those climbs are crested in the final 20 kilometers of the day, and the second, though only 1.3 kilometers in total length, grades out at an average of 7.9%—and from the top it’s less than 6 km to the line, mostly downhill. What’s more, Stage 7 is 234.5 kilometers from start to finish, making it the second longest stage in the entire Tour de France.

That last bump in the road could inspire the punchier riders to attempt escape close to the finish, especially after such a long day in the saddle. And with a few tough stages ahead and no certainty that the big sprinters will survive late attacks, the peloton could struggle finding the motivation to chase down the day’s breakaway, making a long-distance winner at least a possibility. There are a number of different potential scenarios for Stage 7, making it a hard one to predict. However it plays out, the favorites will be the riders with the endurance to handle all 234.5 km and the versatility and explosiveness to excel in what will likely be a challenging finale.

As is often the case in the difficult hilly stages, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be a favorite for victory. If the peloton does bring this all back together before it’s too late, his team will likely have played a role, and more than any other speedster in the Tour de France, Sagan is capable of handling the steep stuff. If anything, he is himself a danger to put in a dig on the climb and then divebomb the descent all the way to the line. In a sprint, he is one of the fastest in the peloton, and it seems possible that the German duo generally regarded as a tier above him might struggle on the last ascent. This could be his best opportunity so far to pick up a win.

Andre Greipel of Lotto Belisol, one of the aforementioned duo, is underrated in his ability to handle difficult days, but this might be a bit too much to ask; there just won’t be a lot of time for anyone who loses ground on the final climb to get back into contention, given the descent that follows. Meanwhile, Lotto’s sprint nemesis Giant-Shimano will be in a tough spot; normally this might be a day for Marcel Kittel to give leadership over to versatile John Degenkolb, but Degenkolb was injured in the Tour’s fifth stage and may not be able to contend. Obviously, if Kittel or Degenkolb manage to hold on for a sprint finish, they will be favorites, but that seems like a lot to ask.

There are a few sprinters other than Sagan who do have a decent shot here, however. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff relishes the extra-long days, and he’s not a bad climber either. He has come close to victory more than once so far in this Tour, and a stage that may see Kittel unable to contest the sprint is his best opportunity to finally get a victory. Ramunas Navardauskas is slotted in as Garmin-Sharp’s sprinter of note, and he is especially adept at fast finishes following tough days. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare normally displays decent uphill ability, but he crashed on Stage 6, and even after finding his way back to the bunch following the incident, he was later dropped before the sprint finish; he may not be at full strength here, though if he is feeling up for it, he’s a danger in a bunch gallop.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, and OPQS’s Mark Renshaw have all performed well in the fast finishes so far, but even this does end in a sprint, surviving the difficult day could be too much to ask from them. Meanwhile, versatile quick men like Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, normally fringe contenders, could find themselves a bit better positioned than usual should this come down to a reduced bunch sprint.

With a late climb coming after a long day of riding, we are certain to see plenty of punchy, aggressive riders trying to escape from the pack, or at least attempting to drop the speedsters that we’ve seen over and over again in the Tour’s many sprint stages so far. For these in-betweener, opportunist types, it may be a tough decision whether or not to try for a victory from the breakaway or from the peloton: I think the pack is the smarter choice here, but if a strong enough group makes the early move, it isn’t a given that the pack will reel them in.

Either from the break or the peloton, Orica-GreenEdge has cards to play for Stage 7 in Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini. Gerrans would have been a top favorite for the stage, but I’m not sure he’s back to full strength after his crash in the Tour’s first stage. If he is recovered by the time the peloton sets out from Épernay, though, he will have an excellent chance at victory: the Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner loves long, grueling days, and he excels on late climbs. Michael Albasini will be a more than able alternative for OGE. He has been very explosive this year, putting in a nice performance on the steep final climb of La Fleche Wallonne and nabbing sprint victories aplenty in the Tour de Romandie.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS always seems to be in the mix when a profile calls for an explosive finish. If any GC contenders decide to put the pressure on over Stage 7’s late bumps, expect Kwiatkowski to be right there at the end; he’s one of the two or three best sprinters of the General Classification riders. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema can be very explosive, and he’s underrated in the sprints even on a flat surface. Lampre’s Rui Costa loves to go on the attack on this sort of profile. And, of course, don’t rule out another attempted strike from yellow jersey wearer Vincenzo Nibali, who could see a steep ascent followed by a fast descent as a nice opportunity to pick up more time.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet just missed out on victory in the Tour’s second stage when the lead group allowed Nibali to escape, leaving 2nd place as the best possible result for those behind, but he’ll have another opportunity here to make it into a late move on the climb and then attempt outsprint anyone around him in the finish. The rider who broke Van Avermaet’s heart in the Tour of Flanders earlier this year, Fabian Cancellara, will also relish this opportunity: the long, challenging days are his forte, and he will enter Stage 7 with a deadly combination of good form (which he has shown on a number of stages so far) and plenty of motivation (having been unable to pick up a victory just yet).

Other riders who don’t mind a tough day of racing and who could look to escape from the pack, either in the day’s early break or late in the stage, include Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez might have seen the late ascent as a nice opportunity to make a move, but he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash