Stage 12: Imola › Vicenza (Monte Berico) – 190km
Though it doesn’t have as many hills from start to finish as Stage 11 (a day tailormade for a breakaway that was won by a breakaway rider, Ilnur Zakarin), Stage 12 does have a very hilly finale that should put the puncheurs on alert again for the chance of a stage win.
The first 125 kilometers are pan flat, with both intermediate sprints occurring before the road kicks up. The first climb on the menu is the Cat. 4 Castelnuovo. It’s followed by a few smaller ups and downs and then another flat stretch into the foot of the Cat. 3 Crosara climb, a short (3.7km) but very steep (9.1% average gradient) ascent with particularly vicious lower slopes. After coming back down from the Crosara, the peloton will hit a short but not-insignificant uncategorzied climb to Perarolo, one more descent, and then a short but very steep uphill finish that is rated as a Category 4 climb. The last kilomter has an average gradient of 7.1%, with slopes topping out at 11% in the very last stretch to the line.
The bumpy finale will make this yet another day of Giro d’Italia racing that could favor a breakaway, and with the peloton showing itself completely incapable of doing the necessary work to close down moves up the road, it’s hard to overstate the chances of breakaway attempts in this race. In any case, many of the punchier riders who will be favorites for success on this stage are the types who could get into a long-range move anyway. Whatever the lead group on the road looks like in the last few kilometers, expect to see a few attacks on the final climbs before the finish, which are steep enough to be great launching pads for aggressive riders.
Diego Ulissi has won a stage in this Giro already on a finish that wasn’t even as steep as this. With an 11% gradient at the end of this climb, the stage is perfectly designed for the punchy Italian, who can charge uphill like few others. Ulissi is also capable of getting into a breakaway, or getting involved in a move over one of the climbs that come before the finish.
Philippe Gilbert missed out on a golden opportunity on Stage 11 when his team was unable to cooperate with Orica-GreenEdge to reel in the breakaway move. He tried to solo clear of the bunch but it was far too late to make a difference. This finale suits him perfectly though, so he’ll get another chance, assuming he’s in the lead group on the road at the business end of Stage 12.
Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options here. I’m going to go out on a limb (against what the bookmakers’ might suggest) and say that this might be too steep for Michael Matthews. I think he’d prefer this to flatten out in the final few hundred meters, when instead it only kicks up even more. He’s still a top contender, but Simon Gerrans may be the better rider here. Regardless, it’s hard to say whether GreenEdge will see it that way, and they may throw their weight behind Matthews, which alone would make him dangerous, not even taking his obvious talents into account. Simon Clarke could be another card to play, perhaps best sent up the road earlier in the stage.
Juan José Lobato, like Matthews, will have his eye on besting some of the top climbers on this stage. It’s hard to say how well he’ll handle the gradient. He’s had a nice run so far this year on tougher finishes but nothing this steep. Giovanni Visconti could do very well here too—in fact, the way Movistar has been riding, I’d expect to see multiple riders in dark blue finish highly on this stage. Beñat Intxausti and Andrey Amador have looked strong so far in this Giro d’Italia too.
Fabio Felline is another rider whose performance is a bit hard to predict given the lack of data—he’s only been a main featured rider for Trek for a little while now, and while he’s had great success in similar finales, this is pretty steep. In any case, he should be in the mix.
Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa could certainly be up there as well—this isn’t a very long ascent to the line but coming after a few bumps in the road it will be a bit more difficult. The same is true for Alberto Contador—and don’t be surprised if one of them tries to get clear on one of the earlier climbs.
Stefano Pirazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Caruso, and Damiano Cunego are others who could get involved in the action on Stage 12.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 12 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
-Dane Cash
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