Stage 2: Alhaurín de la Torre › Caminito del Rey – 158.7km
After a strange opening TTT without GC implications, the Vuelta a España kicks off in earnest on Sunday’s Stage 2.
At 158.7 kilometers, Stage 2 is a short one, but a sting in the tail will bring the GC riders to the fore, which is rather unusual for such an early stage in a three-week race. The day finishes with a 4.7km climb at an average gradient over 6%, with a few steeper sections near the finish. It’s not L’Angliru, but it won’t be a cake walk either, especially this early in the race before many riders have gotten acclimated to the pace of a Grand Tour.
Without any separation on the GC leaderboard as of yet, the peloton will probably drive a hard pace to keep the break on a short leash, though it remains to be seen just which teams will do the work. The shortness of the stage should only increase the speed in the peloton. It’s likely that the pack will hit the final climb at a dogged pace, which could blunt any long-range moves. However, on the slopes of the ascent to the finish, things could change dramatically. Any hesitation could see an attack go clear on the steep stuff. In the event that that doesn’t happen, a strong finishing kick will come in handy, as the final few hundred meters do even out a bit.
Dan Martin is a specialist in this sort of finish, and delivered multiple near misses on similar late climbs in last month’s Tour de France. It’s been a disappointing year for Martin, but he’s shown strong form at times, and should be in the mix here in the Vuelta’s Stage 2. The fact that the top GC favorites probably won’t see him as too much of an overall threat could give him an edge should he try for an attack from a little ways out, and he also happens to have great finishing speed for a sprint should that be necessary. He has lived in Spain for some time now, and tends to do pretty well in his adopted home country, having taken his first Grand Tour stage win at the Vuelta back in 2011. In-form teammate Joe Dombrowski is another strong option for Cannondale-Garmin.
Alejandro Valverde was brilliant in the first half of the season, and if he still has anything left in the tank after a tough Tour de France, he’ll be in the mix for this finish, which suits him very well. Of the top GC riders in the race, he is far and away the fastest in a reduced sprint. He probably won’t be given any breathing room to go on the move, but if Movistar can keep a lid on any late attacks (and they have a team capable of taking control of the race), Valverde will be hard to beat. This finish isn’t hard enough to really favor Nairo Quintana, but don’t count him out either—Quintana is a danger any time the road goes up.
Katusha’s one-two punch has a great chance at success on this stage. Joaquim Rodríguez should come into the stage ready for a showdown, and the finish suits him very well. Expect to see him teaming up with Daniel Moreno to try to set the tone for Katusha early on in this race. Both should be a bit fresher than many of the top climbers in this Vuelta; Moreno didn’t race the Tour at all, and Rodríguez played a stagehunting role there instead of fighting for a GC result.
Astana’s Fabio Aru should also bring plenty of freshness into this finish. He was already showing strong form in the Tour of Poland. If he pours all his energy into an attack on the final climb, he could get some separation. Teammates Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa are obvious options as well.
This short climb isn’t the sort of test typically seen as preferred terrain for Chris Froome, but when he’s motivated, he’s almost impossible to keep down; don’t underestimate his chances. Still, Sergio Henao could be the best option for Sky. The Colombian is on great form, and he’s got some pop for a late move or a finishing sprint.
This finish is probably a bit hard for a Peter Sagan who is in Spain to build up form for Worlds, but he deserves a mention ahead of a stage that he might have a chance at on peak form. The same is true for Simon Gerrans, coming back from a collarbone injury.
Domenico Pozzovivo may find the climb a bit too short for his liking, but he’ll be among the freshest riders in the entire race, and he could get some breathing room for an attack if the top favorites start looking at each other. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Carlos Barbero, Pello Bilbao, Rafal Majka, Jelle Vanendert, Daniel Navarro, and Pierre Rolland are others who will have a shot at success on Stage 2.
VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites
1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodríguez
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.