Stage 11: Collecchio > Savona – 249 km
Thanks to the landslide that forced race organizers to add 10 kilometers to Stage 6, what would have been the longest stage in the Giro d’Italia is now the second longest, but regardless, it’s still quite a lengthy trip from start to finish in Stage 11. It comes after a rest day and a sprinters’ day (on which VeloHuman stage favorite Nacer Bouhanni again took a victory ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo), but with a very important individual time trial on the horizon, the GC contenders might be content to let the early attackers stay out front all day. What’s more, the rolling parcours of Stage 11 is one of the most breakaway-friendly profiles in the Giro. Whoever is on the front as the kilometers tick down, the steep Naso di Gatto (Category 2, 7.2 km at an average of 8%) must be crested about 30 km from the finish, and with a long descent to the finish line to follow, there should be plenty of action towards the end of the day.
As with any likely breakaway scenario, this one will be extremely difficult to call. Predicting which riders are well-suited for a parcours is difficult enough, but predicting which will try to get into a break and succeed in their efforts is even harder! Still, some names stand out ahead of others as likely candidates (though as wide open as the stage is, the list of potential contenders here is a long one). Many of the riders I like for the stage have the sort of skillset that could excel both from a breakaway or from the pack.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo has the burst to make a strong bid for victory over the final climb. He’s out of the GC picture and hunting for stage wins and mountain points. With an ITT and then a rather flat day to come, he can afford to go deep on this long stage. Stefano Pirazzi of Bardiani – CSF is another rider with similar goals, and he’s known for his ability to put the hammer down for a quick uphill attack. This stage won’t require the legs of some of the high mountain climbs to come, but it will favor those with some punch, which will be in Pirazzi’s wheelhouse.
Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen is very well-suited to this difficult parcours. He could give the day’s breakaway and shot, a if he can make the group, he’ll be a very dangerous rider, with the all-around skillset to stay out front for a very long time and a top speed that is tough to match at the line. His teammate Ben Swift may see this as an opportunity as well. For the same reasons, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews could look to get into the breakaway. This trio of versatile fast-finishers might be able to hold on over the final climb from the pack as well, but they could have better chances if they go out front themselves; it will be interesting to see how to play it, but in either scenario, all three are potential stage winners.
Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto has hit a lot of misfortune in this Giro, going down in the rainy opening stages on more than one occasion. This long, undulating parcours with a short but steep climb towards the end is reminiscent of the classics, where Gasparotto has had success in his career. This could be a day for him to try to make the breakaway. Neri-Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi and Mauro Finetto have similar skillsets and could also make a bid to get out front. Cannondale has Moreno Moser, Daniele Ratto, and Oscar Gatto for this sort of contest. Stefano Pirazzi’s Bardiani – CSF teammate Enrico Battaglin is another rider with good climbing legs and a nice kick, and he could be a nice bet. The same is true for Julian Arredondo’s Trek teammate Fabio Felline. Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen loves grueling stages that will put the endurance of his breakaway companions to the test, while teammate Tim Wellens is an aggressive, versatile rider with a fast finish who is targeting stages and possibly even mountain points. Katusha’s Luca Paolini has the classics background for a long day of rolling hills. Stage 9 winner Pieter Weening of Orica-GreenEdge might be able to hang tough out front on this profile. Sky’s Dario Cataldo also has the endurance and won’t be troubled by the climbs. Team Colombia has numerous options in Fabio Duarte, Robinson Chalapud, and Miguel Angel Rubiano. Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas was suffering after-effects of a crash in a pair of earlier stages that looked to suit him but he seems to be back on form now, and could target this one. Former GC hopefuls like Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Lampre’s Damiano Cunego could find the finale suits them.
The punchier types listed above could decide they have better chances from the peloton; however, even if the breakaway is reeled in, those who have decided to stay in the pack will have to contend with the GC riders for supremacy on Stage 11. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi has been known to struggle on the longer days but he’s shown improved endurance so far in this Giro and this parcours is well-suited to his talents. If he weren’t so high up on GC at the moment, he’d probably target this one from the breakaway, but he’ll have to settle for his chances from the peloton. Rigoberto Uran of OPQS has the burst for an uphill charge, or a reduced sprint. His teammate Wout Poels is close enough on GC that he might not be allowed into the breakaway, but he has shown a nice combination of endurance, climbing legs, and burst this year and could do well with a late attack from the pack. BMC’s Cadel Evans has put his nice sprint on display in this race and could succeed if things hold together over the final climb and descent. Wilco Kelderman of Belkin has also proven he can be in the mix with a late move or in a reduced sprint.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looks very strong right now and he’s not afraid to jump from the pack when the road goes up. Pierre Rolland could try to get aggressive on the final bump as well. This isn’t really the sort of ascent that makes one think of Nairo Quintana but he’s always worth a mention with a late steep climb, though he still seems to be in a bit of pain from his Stage 6 crash and might want to conserve his energy for a very important ITT on Thursday.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Diego Ulissi
After the conclusion of Stage 11, keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 12; the individual time trial will have major GC implications. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.
Leave a Reply