Stage 7: Frosinone > Foligno – 211 km
Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.
Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.
Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.
Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.
Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.
Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Elia Viviani | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo
Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!
-Dane Cash
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