After the opening act of the Amstel Gold Race, the hilly Classics specialists head to Belgium for La Flèche Wallonne. A rare midweek WorldTour one-day event, it’s more than just a warmup for Liège-Bastogne-Liège: the “Walloon Arrow” is a major prize for the explosive climbers, and they’re here in droves for the 2015 edition.
The Route
The shortest of the Ardennes week trio, La Flèche Wallonne is only 205.5 km in total. Its 11 classified climbs range from 1 kilometer to 2.9 kilometers in length and 4.8% to 9.6% in average gradients—these are all short climbs, but most are at least somewhat steep, and some are downright brutal. The final two climbs in particular are quite demanding from a vertical standpoint.
The organizers added the Côte de Cherave to the route this year as the penultimate uphill challenge. 1.3 kilometers at 8.1%, it could be a nice launching pad with only about 5 km to go. But the real test will be the final climb, the Mur de Huy. The peloton will actually crest the iconic Wall of Huy three times in this race, but the last will be the most important, because the finish line is at the top of the climb. 1.3 km at 9.6%, it’s a vicious ascent that has no mercy for those without pure climbing ability. The winding slopes of the Mur deaden any momentum the riders bring with them into the ascent, forcing would-be winners to rely on raw uphill strength for almost the entirety of the way up (though things flatten out a bit at the very top). Coming at the end of a day full of climbs, it’s even more of a challenge.
Knowing that the Mur is coming, riders tend to try to keep a lot of energy in reserve in this race. That being the case, even with a new and difficult climb added so close to the line, it seems likely that many of the favorites will still plan to wait until the slopes of the Mur de Huy to launch their bids for glory. It’s possible that someone slips away before the pack reaches the the final climb, but it seems more probable that, as in years past, the Mur will remain the battleground on which La Flèche Wallonne is decided.
The Contenders
Neither Amstel nor Liège end on an uphill, and they are therefore open to victory bids from those with strong sprints or powerful soloing engines. But a race that ends on the Mur de Huy is almost guaranteed to go a rider with an elite uphill kick. Alejandro Valverde certainly fits the bill, which is probably why he’s won the race twice, including last year. He’s among the two or three most explosive uphill chargers in cycling, and his three-win Catalunya performance and runner-up ride at Amstel prove his great form right now. He’s got a great chance of doubling up here this year. He may be able to rely on Nairo Quintana to try something late in the day to put the pressure on Movistar’s rivals as well.
Right up there in the discussion of most explosive climber in cycling is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez, also a past winner here. Purito isn’t quite as strong as Valverde in a flat finish, but I rate his upward kick (when he’s at his best) ever so slightly above Valverde’s—and I think he’s currently quite close to his best. Rodríguez did not factor much in Amstel, but that parcours isn’t really his style; La Flèche Wallonne, on the other hand, suits him perfectly. Purito showed incredible form in the Basque Country and one would imagine he’s carried it into the Ardennes. Katusha must be excited to make the start here, having what is clearly the best team in the race. Daniel Moreno won here in 2013, and Giampaolo Caruo, who seems to get better every year despite being well over 30, has consistently been a factor in the hilly one-day events these past few seasons. Tiago Machado is no slouch either. With so many options, Katusha is likely to launch one uphill assault after another, and that will make them very difficult to counter.
Dan Martin has come close to victory here in the past, and seems destined to win at some point in his career given his excellent skillset for the Mur de Huy. Runner-up in 2014, he’s got a great uphill kick and an aggressive streak to match. He has improved tactically since his 4th place in 2013 that might have been a win if he hadn’t started the Mur so out of position. It seems likely that he’ll again be among those fighting for the win this year. Cannondale can send Tom-Jelte Slagter on the offensive as well.
Chris Froome will likely get plenty of media attention coming into this race, but it’s his teammate Sergio Henao that Sky’s rivals will really be watching. He sat out the 2014 edition but was 2nd to Daniel Moreno in 2013, and a recent 2nd-place in Pais Vasco shows his excellent form. With Froome and Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels as alternatives or support options, Sky can be aggressive in this race.
Amstel Gold Race winner Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd here in 2014. He launched his attack relatively early in that edition and looked good into the final few hundred meters before being passed by Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde. This pure climber’s finale doesn’t suit him as well as Amstel or Liège, simply because he just doesn’t quite have the uphill ability that Purito and some of the other top contenders here have, but he’s a better soloist and a better sprinter than practically anyone else with a chance in this race. That means that he could try something a bit long distance, or alternatively, try to hold the right wheel all the way to top of the Mur where things flatten out, and in either scenario, he’ll have a chance.
Rui Costa looked good at Amstel and is constantly underrated as a climber (and as a time trialist, and as a sprinter for that matter). With Diego Ulissi as a fine second, Lampre can probably make something happen here. Trek has the excellent 1-2 punch of Bauke Mollema and Julián Arredondo—Arredondo has the perfect skillset for La Flèche Wallonne but hasn’t shown much lately. If he’s got some form hidden away he’ll be in the mix. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur also has an excellent skillset for La Flèche Wallonne; at his best, few would be able to match him in this race. He has done almost nothing from a results standpoint in over a year, but he didn’t look too bad at Amstel and will be worth watching here. Lotto Soudals’s Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens could get involved. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang, both clearly hungry for one-day success, will almost certainly try to be aggressive as the day nears its conclusion. Philippe Gilbert has won here in the past and will probably be up there again, but a podium performance at this stage in his career seems highly unlikely—he is not climbing like he used to. Samuel Sanchez could be a nice alternative option for BMC. OGE’s Simon Yates and Michael Albasini, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger are others who could get involved.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Yates, Vincenzo Nibali
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more live analysis during the race.
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