Stage 15: Tallard › Nîmes – 222 km
After a pair of tough days in the Alps (closed out by Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Risoul), the peloton will like the look of the Stage 15 profile: there isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Tallard to Nîmes. With the Tour coming down out of the Alps and headed towards the Mediterranean coast, there are a few long downhill sections on the menu, and the final 65 kilometers are about as flat as a pancake. However, those hunting for success on Stage 15 can’t let the profile lull them into a false sense of security: the weather report is calling for rain, and crosswinds are always a possibility here. A number of roundabouts and a few turns near the finish could further complicate things. It’s also one of the longest stages in the Tour at 222 kilometers. A bunch sprint seems the most likely scenario, but it’s not a given that everyone will make it to the line, and even if all the familiar faces are there, those who are more capable of coping with tough conditions could be fresher for the finale.
Still, although there is a long and possibly wet day ahead, Marcel Kittel will be the top favorite for Stage 15. He’s the fastest sprinter in the race and he has the best leadout, to boot. With no hills to put him in difficulty, his rivals will have to hope that he tires during the long the trip to the line, or that the weather causes enough chaos to force splits in the pack. If Kittel is there in the finale, he’ll be hard to beat. If he isn’t there, teammate John Degenkolb is a strong alternative.
Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel had a slow start to this year’s Tour de France, but he quelled concerns of form with a convincing stage win in Reims. He will be extra hungry after a crash with Sylvain Chavanel put him out of contention for a sprint finish on Stage 11. He looks like the only rider who might challenge Kittel in a drag race.
After his brilliant stage victory in Oyonnax, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff might be third favorite anyway, but a nasty weather report will be especially to his liking, as will the length of the journey to the line. He is a proven performer in bad conditions and he is less prone to fatigue than his rivals. He will have another nice opportunity on Stage 15. Peter Sagan will also be pleased with the weather report. In a drag race, his chances are slim against Kittel and Greipel, but his elite bike handling skills and impressive endurance should help him position himself to take the best possible shot at victory here on Stage 15. He’s running out of opportunities to take a win in this Tour de France. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare appears to going strong again after a rough first week. He’s another tough rider who shouldn’t mind a classics-esque day.
OPQS’s Mark Renshaw has picked up some nice results filling in for Mark Cavendish, and his team is particularly good at taking advantage of poor conditions. An attempt to force a split before the finish (or a sneaky attack from Tony Martin) wouldn’t be all that surprising. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has not placed higher than 4th on a sprint stage in this race, but he has always been in the mix. With the constant possibility of crashes on rain-soaked roads, being in the right place at the right time might be all it takes to make the leap from 4th to 1st. Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini will be outside contenders for the likely sprint finish.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 15, the next preview will be up on Monday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.
-Dane Cash
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