Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour › Bergerac – 208.5 km
Vincenzo Nibali closed out the final high mountain stage of the Tour de France with his fourth stage win, and now the peloton heads to flatter roads. At first glance, Stage 19 looks certain to be one for the sprinting heavyweights, with a mostly flat profile from start to finish. However, there could be a few complicating factors. For one, 208.5 kilometers of racing is no walk in the park. A long day, especially after some very intense climbing, could lead to some pained legs. At the end of this lengthy journey, the peloton must get over a few uncategorized bumps and then a Category 4 climb that comes about 13 km from the finish. It’s short at only 1.3 kilometers, but steep, with an average gradient of 7.6%. And, while the last few kilometers are flat, there are some twists and turns approaching the finish line. On top of these challenges, there is a chance of rain in the forecast, which always adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.
On this profile, the sprinters’ teams should be able to control the race on Stage 19, and with a bunch gallop the likeliest outcome, Marcel Kittel, the fastest fast man in the Tour, has to be a top favorite. Giant-Shimano came here to win on the flats, and the entire team will be working to put Kittel in position to win a sprint finale. In a straight-up drag race, he’s pretty much unbeatable. As we saw on Stage 15, however, a combination of factors like distance and weather can take its toll on the heavy German. The Cat. 4 comes far enough from the finish that it shouldn’t cause too many problems for Kittel, but if the teams of the more versatile sprinters set a hard pace over the ascent and drive it all the way to the tricky final few kilometers, it’s possible that Kittel could have trouble getting into position for the charge to the line. GSH has a great backup plan in John Degenkolb, who has looked sharp in the past few sprint stages, and who is less likely to be troubled by the bumps in the road.
Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel is a bit more capable of coping with the harder days than Marcel Kittel, and at his best, he has a finishing kick few can match. Still, his endurance will be put to the test if teams like Cannondale and Katusha decide to go full gas as the day nears its conclusion. Greipel does have the support of a strong leadout, which will be crucial for the technical run-in to the line.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff took a strong second victory on Stage 15, which, though it was bit longer, shared similarities with this stage, a lengthy journey coming after some tough days in the mountains. Kristoff thrives in nasty weather, and his pair of wins in this Tour have put his impressive top speed on display. Stage 19 will be a good opportunity for him to pick up a third victory.
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan has come so close so many times in this Tour de France, but he has yet to pick up the win he’s been hunting. The likely sprint finale on the Champs-Élysées, which will come at the end of a much easier day in the saddle, will be less favorable to Sagan; this is the better opportunity to get that victory. Like Kristoff, he’ll hope for the hardest race possible. He is very adept at navigating challenging corners, and that gives him an edge in the final few kilometers of the race.
Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare are other fast men with the potential to get involved. Mark Renshaw has placed well in the sprints so far, though OPQS could favor the chances of Matteo Trentin here; it’s also possible they’ll try to send Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra, or Tony Martin up the road and hope the tricky finale makes for a difficult chase. After so many tough mountains stages and with a crucial time trial on the menu for the GC men, it’s not completely out of the question that a well-planned move might be able to hold out here on Stage 19. Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Tommy Voeckler, Jens Keukeleire, and Sylvain Chavanel are other strong riders who might have this sort of tactic in mind.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff
There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 19.
Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.
-Dane Cash
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