Stage 3: Antwerp › Huy – 159.5km
Following a thrilling Stage 2 that, despite it’s Greipel-won sprint finale, saw several GC contenders lose chunks of time, the Tour de France will throw another stage with potential GC implications at the peloton early on in the race. The Tour may be leaving the Netherlands but it isn’t leaving the “Low Countries” altogether—Stage 3 will take the riders from Antwerp to Wallonia’s Ardennes region for a finish in Flèche Wallonne territory. The yellow jersey hopefuls will again need to be on their toes with this profile.
It’s not a long stage at 159.5km (not nearly as long as La Flèche Wallonne), but things get bumpy late in the day, especially in the final 20 kilometers, where the pack will hit the Cat. 4 Cote d’Ereffe, and then a quick uncategorized ascent, and then the Cat. 4 Cote de Cherave before the stage finish on the classic Mur de Huy. It’s only 1.3km from the bottom to the top but the winding road up the Mur averages 9.6%, with a 19% section along the way. The Cat. 3 finish will have GC contenders and climbing-oriented stagehunters alike vying for position on the vicious gradient.
Alejandro Valverde won La Flèche Wallonne this year for the third time in his career. An elite climber with a devastating kick uphill, he has to be the favorite here. Very few riders can explode ahead like Valverde on a climb like this, and given his brilliant form all season, there’s little reason to think he won’t be ready for lunch here on Stage 3. The motivation to charge up the Mur will be sky-high after Movistar’s big losses on Stage 2. Teammate Nairo Quintana, top-notch climber that he is, will also be a rider to watch. He doesn’t have the finishing speed that Valverde has, but anything with a gradient in the 9% range is favored terrain for Quintana.
Joaquim Rodríguez is another past Flèche Wallonne winner with a chance. He had a disappointing Ardennes campaign this season but has also shown flashes of brilliance this season (his País Vasco was incredible). He did crash on Stage 2, however, which may have left him a bit banged up coming into this stage.
Dan Martin has never won La Flèche Wallonne, but he’s been close multiple times. After a poor run in this year’s Ardennes, Martin is looking for some success in this Tour, and this is a great stage for him. He should be in the mix for the victory.
Julian Arredondo is typically very strong on this sort of finish, though he’s never actually landed a Flèche Wallonne Top 10. He lost a chunk of time on Stage 2 but will have a shot at redemption here. His teammate Bauke Mollema also has a nice upward kick, with several great results on the Mur in the past.
Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options for Stage 3. Michael Albasini is probably the team’s best bet, as he has done well on this climb in the past, though form is a bit of a question mark for Albasini. Simon Gerrans, excellent in an uphill sprint, is another option. Simon Yates, who has been in great shape pretty much all season long, could surprise people. He doesn’t have much Ardennes experience yet but this is a good profile for him.
World champ Michal Kwiatkowski has had good results on the Mur in the past and could shine in Stage 3. Meanwhile, his teammate Rigoberto Urán is suddenly in the GC conversation after an under-the-radar start. He has a great finishing kick and could continue to surprise people here if he can position himself well to battle it out with the big favorites. Vincenzo Nibali, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Tim Wellens, and possibly even Peter Sagan will like the profile as well. And don’t count out Chris Froome just because he’s not an Ardennes specialist—this is a steep finishing climb in a Tour de France stage, and that’s reason enough for Froome to be seen as a big threat.
VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Dan Martin
Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash