Stage 10: Valencia › Castellón – 146.6km
The Vuelta’s tenth stage is, mercifully, the final day of racing before the long awaited first rest day. It’s also mercifully short at just 146.6km.
The stage opens with a gentle uphill drag into the first categorized climb, a relatively uncomplicated Cat. 3, the Puerto del Oronet. Then comes a descent, a long false flat, and another descent into a 40km stretch of pan-flat roads.
At kilometer 122 the riders will hit the only other categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Alto del Desierto de las Palmas, 7km at 5.6%. It’s a pretty straightforward ascent, without too much variation. Then comes a moderately technical descent into a flat finish of about 8km.
The Stage 10 profile makes it borderline as a potential sprinter’s stage, but the race situation doesn’t much favor that scenario: without Peter Sagan or Nacer Bouhanni in the race (I’m not sure if Matteo Pelucchi could have handled the climb, but he’s gone too), there won’t be the same level of commitment from the spritners’ teams to keep the breakaway on a tight leash. In that way, the absence of Sagan and Bouhanni actually probably hurts the chances of John Degenkolb. It’s going to take a big effort to reel in the early breakaway to set up a fast finish—though he’s the clear favorite if everything comes back together.
Caleb Ewan will have his work cut out for him surviving the late climb and coming to the finish fresh (especially since it will take a high-pace day in the peloton to set up a sprint) but he could contend if he’s there. Tosh Van der Sande, Jean-Pierre Drucker, JJ Rojas, Kevin Reza, and Carlos Barbero are others whose chances probably rely on this coming back together for a bunch kick.
While the breakaway will have an excellent shot for Stage 10, it’s always a challenge predicting which riders will actually make the move. Nobody has really stood out as a clear protagonist in the breakaway game just yet in this race, so it’s harder to name any single favorite to take this stage from than it is to name the top favorite for a potential sprint.
Adam Hansen could be involved if he makes the move. This is a perfect stage finish for him, as the late climb will make it a bit hectic for anyone hoping for a sprint.
Caja Rural will almost certainly get someone involved in the break, though predicting which of their riders will succeed in the attempt is pretty challenging. If José Goncalvez can get up the road, he’ll be dangerous, with strong climbing legs and a handy finishing kick. The same is true for Pello Bilbao.
Lampre-Merida’s Kristijan Durasek is an excellent climber (strong enough to win the Tour of Turkey) and he’s also got some pop, which he showed off with a stage-winning attack in this year’s Tour de Suisse. He’s also shown an interest in the breakaways so far in this Vuelta. He could get involved on Stage 10.
LottoNL-Jumbo’s Bert-Jan Lindeman has already won one stage in this Vuelta, and has the strength and the aggressive streak to take another long-range win here.
Luis León Sánchez and Giovanni Visconti are both excellent stage victory candidates from afar, if Astana and Movistar (respectively) allow them to get up the road. Both teams have been less inclined to send riders into the breakaway so far in the race, but that might not hold true here in Stage 10, the day before a rest day.
Niki Terpstra looked very strong attempting a late escape on Stage 8, and this could be another opportunity for a rare Grand Tour stage win. Iljo Keisse is another option for Etixx-QuickStep. Alex Howes, Cyril Gautier, Thomas De Gendt, Rubén Plaza, Julien Simon, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders who could have a chance at long-range success on Stage 10.
VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Adam Hansen | 3. José Goncalvez
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Stage 10 is followed by a rest day, so check back Tuesday for the preview of Stage 11. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the latest episode of the Recon Ride podcast.