Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 (ITT): Barbaresco > Barolo – 41.9 km

Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.

The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.

Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.

Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.

Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.

Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans

The Stage 13 preview will be up a few hours after the final rider crosses the line on Stage 12. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash